The rest of the season
Two real tests left: No. 23 Washington 36%, Minnesota 60%
Win out 15% · expect 2.6 of 4 more wins
Penn State's chance to win each game left, from our model: Washington 36%, Minnesota 60%, Rutgers 87%, Maryland 81%Bar height is our model’s chance in each game left. Dashed line: 50%.
Bowl chance went from 72% to 73%, peaking at 95% before a game
Our model, entering each game. The letter is the result of the game before it.
StandingTied for 15th in the Big Ten · 1-4 in conference play · All standings
LeadersPassing Rocco Becht 1,839 · Rushing Carson Hansen 374 · Receiving Chase Sowell 510 All player stats
Updated Wed Nov 4 · through week 9
Follow Penn State:athletics siteBig TenXYouTubeInstagram
| Wk | Date | Our rank | Opp rank | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf | Top performers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 5 | #46 | #23 | −23.5✓ +21.5 | Marshall | W 45-0 126 | 1-0 | 0-0 | Pass Becht 271 · Rush Hansen 48 · Rec Howard 161 |
| 2 | Sep 12 | #38 | #89 | −24.5✗ −6.5 | @Temple | W 27-9 116 | 2-0 | 0-0 | Pass Becht 268 · Rush Hansen 84 · Rec Brahmer 79 |
| 3 | Sep 19 | #35 | #145 | −39.5✓ +2.5 | Buffalo | W 55-13 130 | 3-0 | 0-0 | Pass Becht 212 · Rush Martin Jr. 100 · Rec Howard 115 |
| 4 | Sep 26 | #31 | #81 | −9.5✗ −13.5 | Wisconsin | L 20-24 131 Loud | 3-1 | 0-1 | Pass Becht 114 · Rush Peoples 67 · Rec Sowell 70 |
| 5 | Oct 2 | #32 | #13 | −3✗ −24 | @Northwestern | L 13-34 132 | 3-2 | 0-2 | Pass Becht 243 · Rush Hansen 19 · Rec Sowell 68 |
| 6 | Oct 10 | #36 | #25 | +1.5✗ −6.5 | USC | L 23-31 126 | 3-3 | 0-3 | Pass Becht 289 · Rush Hansen 28 · Rec Sowell 95 |
| 7 | Oct 17 | #43 | #28 | +6✓ +3 | @Michigan | L 18-21 127 | 3-4 | 0-4 | Pass Becht 267 · Rush Hansen 51 · Rec Sowell 151 |
| 8 | Bye week | ||||||||
| 9 | Oct 31 | #48 | #87 | −10✓ +4 | Purdue | W 31-17 120 | 4-4 | 1-4 | Pass Becht 175 · Rush Wallace 135 · Rec Brahmer 58 |
| 10 | Nov 7 | #44 | #32 | +2.5 | @Washington | 3:30 pm ET · FS136% to win | |||
| 11 | Nov 14 | #43 | #47 | Minnesota | time TBA60% to win | ||||
| 12 | Nov 21 | Rutgers | time TBA87% to win | ||||||
| 13 | Nov 28 | @Maryland | time TBA | ||||||
Win chances are our model for Penn State, through 8 games. This week's game comes from the playoff simulation, later games from the rating model. They are estimates and move every week.
The small line beside each score is the team's win chance through the game, drawn on one scale for every game. The small number is total plays.
Line is the closing point spread for Penn State: a minus number means favored. A green check means the team covered it, by the number beside it. A red cross means it fell short by that much.
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Big plays (IsoPPP) | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31 | Purdue | W 31-17 | 457 | 0 | 43:27 | +0.219 | 45.6% | 1.22 | Best defensive stand |
| Oct 17 | @Michigan | L 18-21 | 332 | 3 | 32:02 | -0.072 | 40.3% | 1.03 | One-score loss |
| Oct 10 | USC | L 23-31 | 357 | 1 | 29:52 | +0.043 | 38.5% | 1.20 | Defense's roughest night |
| Oct 2 | @Northwestern | L 13-34 | 291 | 2 | 23:55 | +0.009 | 44.6% | 1.00 | |
| Sep 26 | Wisconsin | L 20-24 | 233 | 1 | 30:26 | -0.171 | 25.0% | 1.08 | Season-low EPA/play |
| Sep 19 | Buffalo | W 55-13 | 573 | 0 | 31:23 | +0.399 | 46.4% | 1.52 | Most explosive |
| Sep 12 | @Temple | W 27-9 | 416 | 0 | 28:49 | +0.207 | 43.8% | 1.18 | |
| Sep 5 | Marshall | W 45-0 | 487 | 0 | 36:13 | +0.422 | 51.4% | 1.29 | Season-high EPA/play |
| Season average (8 games) | 393 | 0.9 | +0.132 | 41.9% | 1.19 | ||||
Penn State's wildest games since 2013: comebacks, long shots, line misses
Median odds across sportsbooks · Nov 4. A number with a minus is the favorite: −130 means $130 wins $100. A plus is the underdog: +170 means $100 wins $170.
What fans said
Real posts about each game (they name the opponent, a player or a play), chosen by community score · usernames not shown
The games that decide the season
Recent form · last 10 games
6-4 over the last 10, and won the last one.
You know you look at this schedule this year; their best win is what? Like they went on the road and beat Penn State in a white out
<1% now
Our simulation, 20,000 seasons a night, counted from the first full week of games.
The open questioncan a new staff change the trajectory?
Campbell inherits a 7-6 roster and 56% returning production, but Penn State's standard was built by Franklin's legacy — the program must now prove it can thrive without him.
Statusdeveloping
James Franklin's sixth season sees Penn State's win total dip from 9.5 to 8.5, testing whether his reputation can sustain a program built by one man.
Statusdeveloping
Written by our model from the storyline records. It can get facts wrong.
Range of outcomes · Penn State · 2026
Regular-season wins: chance of each total, from the game chances above
5 wins 8%; 6 wins 33%; 7 wins 43%; 8 wins 15%Bars are the chance of each regular-season win total, from our model's chance in each game left, through 8 games. Paler bars are the outer 10% at each end. The closed row comes from the season-path projection, which also plays out conference title games and the CFP.
Penn State win total fell from 9.5 to 8.5 (−1 win) between May 2026 and Jun 2026. The market moved, and the fan base is split on what it means. Oddsmakers react to information, and they can still be wrong. The coverage is divided, and bulls and bears both cite specific games.
The 'market knows something fans don't' read: when odds move, it's on information.
The 'markets overcorrect' counter: lines move on noise too; the receipts may not hold.
This event was in 1109 of 10817 board posts (10%) over the last 60 days, a modest share of the conversation. Fan text is shown verbatim and credited to the community it came from; posters stay anonymous.
Board health this week (141 posts): 13% positive · 50% neutral · 37% negative. This is the team's mood for the whole week, across all topics. Board posters are a vocal, self-selected slice of the fanbase.
Matt Campbell took over as Penn State's head coach, replacing Terry Smith. It is replaces 12-year head coach James Franklin (104-45). The coverage has moved from the hire itself to what followed it. Most of the coverage has bought in, and it is early.
The off-field storyline drawing the most coverage right now. This section collects the drama around the program, kept apart from the analysis.
The 'this hire changes everything' takes: new-era believers making the case early.
The 'show me the body of work' counter: resume gaps, scheme fits, and 'not that guy' reads.
Nothing in our corpus yet.
This event was in 306 of 10817 board posts (3%) over the last 60 days, a modest share of the conversation. Fan text is shown verbatim and credited to the community it came from; posters stay anonymous.
Board health this week (141 posts): 13% positive · 50% neutral · 37% negative. This is the team's mood for the whole week, across all topics. Board posters are a vocal, self-selected slice of the fanbase.
The second-order trail: commits, decommits, portal and staff knock-on from the hire.
More in this tab
This week and this season
What it is like to watch them2026 · 4-4
Measured from 8 games · ranks are among Big Ten teams the same season
Penn State spent a decade as the program that could win every big game except the biggest — and in 2025 the wait finally broke the man who embodied it, ending the Franklin era mid-season and handing the job to someone hired to do the one thing the program never could.
Fans will point to the scoreboard: a decade of being the Big Ten's clear third program behind Ohio State and Michigan, the two rivals who kept finding a way in the fourth quarter when Penn State…
Penn State · Game-day weather
This Saturday: Mild. No coat needed.
Penn State at Washington · Saturday, Nov. 7 · 3:30 pm ET · FS1 · Husky Stadium.
Forecast, read Wed Nov 4, 8:20 am ET. It can change until kickoff.
This game is at Husky Stadium. The kickoff times below are for Beaver Stadium, Penn State's home stadium.
Typical weather score at each kickoff time.
Tap a dot to read it.
At kickoff, 114 regular-season Saturdays at each kickoff time, 2018 to 2025. Typical means the average of those Saturdays. It is not a forecast.
Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50. Gusts count toward the score (up to 15 points). Average rain chance: the hourly chances of rain over the first 3 hours and 20 minutes, averaged.
Penn State is the program whose standard was built by one man's reputation and has to keep being rebuilt in his absence.
The program ledger
since 2025Roster and recruiting
Top 1 commits
Top r/cfb community posts · last 12 months
Fans and ratings
Fan mood index · most recent r/CFB data
More
Each link was checked against two outside sites.
Audrey Snyder
Penn State football reporter
No financial relationship with any outlet listed. If we have a reporter wrong or missing, please let us know.
Range of outcomes · Penn State · 2026