The rest of the season
4 of 4 games under 70%, the hardest: Nebraska 11%
Win out <1% · expect 1.0 of 4 more wins
Rutgers's chance to win each game left, from our model: Wisconsin 29%, Nebraska 11%, Penn State 13%, Michigan State 50%Bar height is our model’s chance in each game left. Dashed line: 50%.
Bowl chance went from 60% to 2%, peaking at 60% before a game
Our model, entering each game. The letter is the result of the game before it.
StandingTied for 15th in the Big Ten · 1-4 in conference play · All standings
LeadersPassing Dylan Lonergan 1,066 · Rushing Antwan Raymond 733 · Receiving KJ Duff 774 All player stats
Updated Wed Nov 4 · through week 9
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| Wk | Date | Our rank | Opp rank | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf | Top performers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 3 | #68 | #258 | −29.5✗ −45.5 | Massachusetts | L 21-37 126 | 0-1 | 0-0 | Pass Lonergan 242 · Rush Raymond 42 · Rec Duff 196 |
| 2 | Sep 11 | #75 | #131 | +3✗ −4 | @Boston College | L 21-28 129 | 0-2 | 0-0 | Pass Surace 230 · Rush Raymond 134 · Rec Duff 137 |
| 3 | Sep 19 | #88 | #26 | +21✓ +14 | USC | L 35-42 132 | 0-3 | 0-1 | Pass Lonergan 252 · Rush Raymond 122 · Rec Duff 86 |
| 4 | Sep 25 | #89 | #227 | −42.5✓ +8.5 | Howard | W 58-7 120 | 1-3 | 0-1 | Pass Lonergan 214 · Rush Raymond 140 · Rec Duff 131 |
| 5 | Oct 3 | #93 | #6 | +24.5✗ −7.5 | Indiana | L 15-47 123 | 1-4 | 0-2 | Pass Surace 128 · Rush Thevenin 47 · Rec Duff 78 |
| 6 | Bye week | ||||||||
| 7 | Oct 17 | #104 | #87 | +5.5✓ +12.5 | @Maryland | W 37-30 138 | 2-4 | 1-2 | Pass Lonergan 291 · Rush Thevenin 109 · Rec Duff 113 |
| 8 | Oct 24 | #91 | #16 | +15.5✗ −12.5 | @Northwestern | L 14-42 132 | 2-5 | 1-3 | Pass Surace 64 · Rush Raymond 150 · Rec Duff 33 |
| 9 | Oct 31 | #100 | #25 | +16.5✓ +9.5 | Michigan | L 21-28 110 | 2-6 | 1-4 | Pass Surace 123 · Rush Raymond 85 · Rec Houston 80 |
| 10 | Nov 7 | #106 | #45 | +16.5 | @Wisconsin | 4:15 pm ET · BTN29% to win | |||
| 11 | Nov 14 | #106 | #25 | Nebraska | time TBA11% to win | ||||
| 12 | Nov 21 | @Penn State | time TBA13% to win | ||||||
| 13 | Nov 28 | Michigan State | time TBA | ||||||
Win chances are our model for Rutgers, through 8 games. This week's game comes from the playoff simulation, later games from the rating model. They are estimates and move every week.
The small line beside each score is the team's win chance through the game, drawn on one scale for every game. The small number is total plays.
Line is the closing point spread for Rutgers: a minus number means favored. A green check means the team covered it, by the number beside it. A red cross means it fell short by that much.
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Big plays (IsoPPP) | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31 | Michigan | L 21-28 | 249 | 0 | 20:54 | +0.135 | 22.5% | 2.36 | Most explosive |
| Oct 24 | @Northwestern | L 14-42 | 344 | 3 | 26:45 | -0.186 | 35.3% | 1.29 | Season-low EPA/play |
| Oct 17 | @Maryland | W 37-30 | 442 | 1 | 35:52 | +0.344 | 48.6% | 1.24 | One-score win |
| Oct 3 | Indiana | L 15-47 | 254 | 0 | 26:58 | -0.030 | 28.1% | 1.67 | Defense's roughest night |
| Sep 25 | Howard | W 58-7 | 534 | 0 | 36:44 | +0.428 | 58.9% | 1.10 | Season-high EPA/play |
| Sep 19 | USC | L 35-42 | 460 | 2 | 33:15 | +0.181 | 51.4% | 1.29 | One-score loss |
| Sep 11 | @Boston College | L 21-28 | 384 | 4 | 34:32 | -0.084 | 41.2% | 1.39 | One-score loss |
| Sep 3 | Massachusetts | L 21-37 | 349 | 4 | 23:39 | +0.203 | 39.7% | 1.56 | |
| Season average (8 games) | 377 | 1.8 | +0.124 | 40.7% | 1.49 | ||||
Rutgers's wildest games since 2013: comebacks, long shots, line misses
Sportsbook odds · Oct 19. A number with a minus is the favorite: −130 means $130 wins $100. A plus is the underdog: +170 means $100 wins $170.
What fans said
Real posts about each game (they name the opponent, a player or a play), chosen by community score · usernames not shown
The games that decide the season
Recent form · last 10 games
2-8 over the last 10, and lost the last two.
You hate hearing the rumors, because that means somebody’s job is being evaluated
Range of outcomes · Rutgers · 2026
Regular-season wins: chance of each total, from the game chances above
2 wins 28%; 3 wins 46%; 4 wins 22%; 5 wins 4%Bars are the chance of each regular-season win total, from our model's chance in each game left, through 8 games. Paler bars are the outer 10% at each end. The closed row comes from the season-path projection, which also plays out conference title games and the CFP.
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This week and this season
What it is like to watch them2026 · 2-6
Measured from 8 games · ranks are among Big Ten teams the same season
Rutgers held the first college football game in history — November 6, 1869, against Princeton — and ever since has been the program that gave the sport to the world and then watched the world get better at it.
Rutgers fans are weary of being the Big Ten's welcome mat — the school the blue bloods schedule for a comfortable Saturday. They'll remind you who held the first game ever, and that the founder…
Rutgers · Game-day weather
Typical at SHI Stadium: kickoff time makes little difference, scores run 89 to 92
Typical weather score at each kickoff time.
Tap a dot to read it.
At kickoff, regular-season Saturdays, 2018 to 2025: 113 at noon, 114 at 3:30 pm, 114 at 7:30 pm. Typical means the average of those Saturdays. It is not a forecast.
Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.
Rutgers is the program that played the first-ever college football game, November 6, 1869 vs Princeton, and whose Greg Schiano-second-era Big Ten reset answers what historic-program-resurrected looks like.
Roster and recruiting
Top 3 signees
Top community posts · last 12 months · r/cfb
Fans and ratings
Fan confidence in a typical range for this program right now
39th percentile among FBS programs
Fan mood index · most recent r/CFB data
More
Each link was checked against two outside sites.
Range of outcomes · Rutgers · 2026