RUTG Rutgers 0-2 21 BC Boston College 1-1 28 Final Boston College beat Rutgers 28-21. Share this game
We had Rutgers favored. Boston College won.
Top comment in the game thread
converting the 4th down and getting immediately picked off feels so on brand for this game
Q4 1:46 · r/CFB game thread · Fri, Sep 11 How it swung Watch the plays Drives Box score Weather Before kickoff How it swung The turning point: Surace 0-yd run, turnover on downs (Q1, 13:08). Boston College went from 62% to 80% to win. Fans right then: “Rutgers is going to get absolutely demolished in the B1G You can’t get 1 yard against… BC?” r/CFB game thread
Before kickoff, our ratings gave Boston College a 48% chance, and the closing betting line (Boston College was a 3-point favorite) put it at 60%.
Favored the whole way: Boston College never fell below 55%.
Rutgers never had better than a 44% chance.
78-yard TD pass Boston College · Q4 7:06Final Boston College 28-21 Rutgers Boston College won Move across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play. Final Rutgers 21-28 Boston College Rutgers lost Move across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play. 50% 75% 90% Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 92% at half Boston College Won 28-21 1 2 +18 +16 Scores B. 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at half Boston College Lost 21-28 1 2 −18 −16 Scores Rutgers B. 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See it from Rutgers’s side The two plays that swung it
1 Q1 13:08 4th and 1 Surace 0-yd run, turnover on downsBoston College 62% → 80% (+18) 2 Q4 7:06 McKenzie 78-yd TD pass to Pough, Boston College leads 28-14 Boston College 83% → 99% (+16) The two plays that swung it
1 Q1 13:08 4th and 1 Surace 0-yd run, turnover on downsRutgers 38% → 20% (−18) 2 Q4 7:06 McKenzie 78-yd TD pass to Pough, Boston College leads 28-14 Rutgers 17% → 1% (−16) What fans said, play by play
The line in bold above each quote is written by our model from the thread’s comments and the play-by-play.
Q1 13:52 Fans mock Schiano's tush push call after Rutgers goes three-and-out Rutgers is going to get absolutely demolished in the B1G You can’t get 1 yard against… BC? r/CFB game thread Rutgers is truly ass, no way you're stacked by *Boston College's defense* r/CFB game thread Q4 11:06 Rutgers fans rip Schiano for going for it instead of kicking field goals Please kick it r/CFB game thread Q4 1:46 Surace throws an interception to Palano after converting fourth down Surace vs Lonergan is like testicular torsion vs testicular torsion r/CFB game thread Quoted at the top of the page. Boston College’s chance to win after every play. How to read this chart Starts from the pregame line (Boston College -3), at 66% for Boston College (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Outlined diamonds mark rare plays. Under the scores, r/CFB comments per minute from fans with a Boston College or Rutgers flair (146 and 269); both sides share one scale, regulation only. A gold diamond marks a play fans were reacting to. Watch the plays The bar and the arrow show Boston College’s chance to win after each play; the logo is the team the play helped.
Play all in order Q1, 10:42 Dickens 19-yd TD run Boston College goes ahead 7-0 Q1, 10:42 · Boston College 7, Rutgers 0 ▲5% Boston College’s chance to win, 77% to 82% ▲5% Boston College’s chance to win, 77% to 82% ▶ Watch from this playESPN College Football Q1, 7:17 Surace intercepted by Comella at the Boston College 23 Q1, 7:17 · Boston College 7, Rutgers 0 ▲12% Boston College’s chance to win, 74% to 86% ▲12% Boston College’s chance to win, 74% to 86% ▶ Watch from this playESPN College Football Q1, 5:15 McKenzie 10-yd TD run Boston College leads 14-0 Q1, 5:15 · Boston College 14, Rutgers 0 ▲4% Boston College’s chance to win, 88% to 92% ▲4% Boston College’s chance to win, 88% to 92% ▶ Watch from this playESPN College Football Q2, 1:55 Surace 4-yd TD pass to Raymond cuts it to 17-7 Q2, 1:55 · Boston College 17, Rutgers 7 17-7 score after the play 17-7 score after the play ▶ Watch from this playESPN College Football Q3, 7:57 Surace intercepted by Davis at the Boston College 15 Q3, 7:57 · Boston College 20, Rutgers 7 ▲3% Boston College’s chance to win, 90% to 93% ▲3% Boston College’s chance to win, 90% to 93% ▶ Watch from this playESPN College Football Q3, 6:47 Dickens 11-yd run fumbles Q3, 6:47 · Boston College 20, Rutgers 7 ▼4% Boston College’s chance to win, 94% to 90% ▼4% Boston College’s chance to win, 94% to 90% ▶ Watch from this playESPN College Football Q3, 2:37 Surace 4-yd TD pass to Duff cuts it to 20-14 Q3, 2:37 · Boston College 20, Rutgers 14 ▼8% Boston College’s chance to win, 88% to 80% ▼8% Boston College’s chance to win, 88% to 80% ▶ Watch from this playESPN College Football Q3, 2:27 McKenzie intercepted by Walker at the Boston College 26 Q3, 2:27 · Boston College 20, Rutgers 14 ▼13% Boston College’s chance to win, 80% to 67% ▼13% Boston College’s chance to win, 80% to 67% ▶ Watch from this playESPN College Football Q4, 9:27 Surace intercepted by Palano at the Boston College 10 illegal block in back on Boston College Q4, 9:27 · Boston College 20, Rutgers 14 ▲11% Boston College’s chance to win, 71% to 82% ▲11% Boston College’s chance to win, 71% to 82% ▶ Watch from this playESPN College Football Q4, 7:06 McKenzie 78-yd TD pass to Pough Boston College leads 28-14 Q4, 7:06 · Boston College 28, Rutgers 14 ▲16% Boston College’s chance to win, 83% to 99% ▲16% Boston College’s chance to win, 83% to 99% ▶ Watch from this playESPN College Football Q4, 6:18 Surace 60-yd TD pass to Duff cuts it to 28-21 Q4, 6:18 · Boston College 28, Rutgers 21 ▼8% Boston College’s chance to win, 99% to 91% ▼8% Boston College’s chance to win, 99% to 91% ▶ Watch from this playESPN College Football Q4, 3:00 McKenzie intercepted by Walker at the Rutgers 38 Q4, 3:00 · Boston College 28, Rutgers 21 ▼4% Boston College’s chance to win, 94% to 90% ▼4% Boston College’s chance to win, 94% to 90% ▶ Watch from this playESPN College Football Q4, 1:46 Surace intercepted by Palano at the Boston College 35 Q4, 1:46 · Boston College 28, Rutgers 21 ▲8% Boston College’s chance to win, 87% to 95% ▲8% Boston College’s chance to win, 87% to 95% ▶ Watch from this playESPN College Football
Every drive Boston College scored on 5 of its 12 drives; Rutgers on 3 of its 11.
Boston College’s drives are teal, Rutgers’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.
own goal goal line Q1 Rutgers: Turned over on downs, from 75 yards out to 66 Downs Boston College: Touchdown, from 34 yards out to 0 Touchdown Rutgers: Interception, from 75 yards out to 33 Interception Boston College: Touchdown, from 77 yards out to 0 Touchdown Rutgers: Punt, from 75 yards out to 66 Punt Boston College: Field goal, from 75 yards out to 12 Field goal Q2 Rutgers: Punt, from 75 yards out to 80 Punt Boston College: Punt, from 69 yards out to 64 Punt Rutgers: Touchdown, from 72 yards out to 0 Touchdown Boston College: Field goal, from 75 yards out to 28 Field goal Q3 Boston College: Punt, from 75 yards out to 72 Punt Rutgers: Interception, from 74 yards out to 19 Interception Boston College: Fumble, from 81 yards out to 48 Fumble Rutgers: Touchdown, from 52 yards out to 0 Touchdown Boston College: Interception, from 75 yards out to 75 Interception Rutgers: Turned over on downs, from 18 yards out to 11 Downs Boston College: Punt, from 89 yards out to 74 Punt Q4 Rutgers: Interception, from 54 yards out to 21 Interception Boston College: Touchdown, from 92 yards out to 0 Touchdown Rutgers: Touchdown, from 75 yards out to 0 Touchdown Boston College: Interception, from 75 yards out to 44 Interception Rutgers: Interception, from 62 yards out to 47 Interception Boston College: End of game, from 80 yards out to 93 End of game “That play was definitely worth a timeout..” A fan of another team How fans reacted Steady
It came down to the finish, and so did the noise.
Jump to the loudest stretch
The jump was steady; the crowd was busy.
First Second Third Fourth Boston College fans Rutgers fans usual Box score Boston College 28, Rutgers 21
Boston College covered −3 by 4. The total, 49, stayed under 53.5.
Rutgers Boston College Total yards Rutgers 384 Boston College 402 384 402 Passing yards Rutgers 230 Boston College 252 230 252 Rushing yards Rutgers 154 Boston College 150 154 150 First downs Rutgers 19 Boston College 18 19 18 Turnovers Rutgers 4 Boston College 3 4 3 Time of possession Rutgers 34:32 Boston College 25:28 34:32 25:28 Team totals Rutgers Boston College Total yards 384 402 Passing 18 of 27, 230 yds 18 of 29, 252 yds Rushing 41 for 154 yds 32 for 150 yds First downs 19 18 Third down 4 of 12 4 of 12 Fourth down 2 of 5 1 of 1 Turnovers 4 3 Penalties 5 for 40 yds 4 for 28 yds Time of possession 34:32 25:28
Rutgers leaders Passing AJ Surace 18 of 27, 230 yds, 3 TD, 4 INTRushing Antwan Raymond 27 for 134 yds; Clay Thevenin 7 for 36 ydsReceiving KJ Duff 8 for 137 yds, 2 TD; Jourdin Houston 5 for 40 ydsBoston College leaders Passing Mason McKenzie 18 of 29, 252 yds, 1 TD, 2 INTRushing Mason McKenzie 13 for 94 yds, 1 TD; Evan Dickens 13 for 56 yds, 1 TDReceiving Dawson Pough 4 for 106 yds, 1 TD; Landon Wright 2 for 60 ydsNo rain through the game 72° at kickoff · no rain recorded
September game-day temperatures at Alumni Stadium (Chestnut Hill, MA)
Win chance with rain, wind and thunder from the nearest airport, by game time Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Boston College favored Rutgers favored 100% Win chance Boston College Rain inches per 10 min 0.1 in No rain recorded Wind mph, average and gusts 20 mph 40 mph Hourly wind only at this airport Win chance with rain, wind and thunder from the nearest airport, by game time Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Boston College favored Rutgers favored Rain · inches per 10 min 0.1 in No rain recorded Wind · miles per hour 20 40 Hourly wind only at this airport Drag along the chart, or step through the game.
First quarter, 13:08 left7:45 p.m.
Rutgers 0, Boston College 0 · Boston College 80% to win
no rain · 72°
Surace 0-yd run, turnover on downs
Previous play Next play
Jump to Biggest swing: 18 points of win chance · first Where this weather comes from Measured at Boston Logan International Airport, 8.2 miles away. Rain is NOAA's radar-and-gauge estimate at the stadium and wind is an airport reading; neither is measured on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet; rain radar from NOAA MRMS, through Iowa State University. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.
Before kickoff Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.
Matchups Biggest mismatch: Boston College’s explosive plays against Rutgers, 44 points Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.
Boston College’s explosive plays against Rutgers’s defense
44 points weaker stronger 50th Boston College offense, 76th percentile · Rutgers defense, 32nd
Rutgers’s passing EPA against Boston College’s defense
41 points weaker stronger 50th Rutgers offense, 82nd percentile · Boston College defense, 41st
Season profile, all the rows Season profile Rutgers Boston College
EPA/play, offense
Rutgers · 55 Boston College · 19 EPA/play, defense
Rutgers · 13 Boston College · 66 Success rate, offense
Rutgers · 63 Boston College · 18 Success rate, defense
Rutgers · 16 Boston College · 49 Explosive-play rate, offense
Rutgers · 86 Boston College · 76 Explosive-play rate, defense
Rutgers · 32 Boston College · 68 Rush EPA, offense
Rutgers · 20 Boston College · 23 Rush EPA, defense
Rutgers · 6 Boston College · 55 Pass EPA, offense
Rutgers · 82 Boston College · 34 Pass EPA, defense
Rutgers · 17 Boston College · 41 The series Boston College leads the series 20-7-1
28 meetings since 1919 · Rutgers won the last meeting
Boston College won Rutgers won 1919: Rutgers by 6 1956: Boston College by 32 1981: Boston College by 6 1982: Boston College by 1 1983: Boston College by 20 1984: Boston College by 12 1985: Boston College by 10 1986: Rutgers by 2 1987: Rutgers by 14 1988: Rutgers by 11 1989: Rutgers by 2 1990: Boston College by 5 1991: Rutgers by 7 1992: Boston College by 17 1993: Boston College by 10 1994: tie 1995: Boston College by 3 1996: Boston College by 24 1997: Boston College by 14 1998: Boston College by 27 1999: Boston College by 20 2000: Boston College by 29 2001: Boston College by 31 2002: Boston College by 30 2003: Boston College by 10 2004: Boston College by 11 2019: Boston College by 14 2022: Rutgers by 1 1919 2022 2022 Rutgers 22-21 Boston College lost 21-22 vs Rutgers. Chance to win started at 70%, low 16%, high 94%. 2019 Boston College 30-16 Boston College won 30-16 at Rutgers. Chance to win started at 69%, low 57%, high 99%. 2004 Boston College 21-10 2003 Boston College 35-25 2002 Boston College 44-14 Each line is Boston College’s chance to win through that meeting. Boston College is 1-1 in the meetings since 2018 that were still close in the fourth quarter. Older meetings have no play by play, so no line.
Line, fans and home field The betting line, and the fans Boston College fans are in a better mood than Rutgers fans (72nd vs 26th among FBS fanbases), even with Rutgers favored.
50-50 Model · 48% Line · 60% Boston College fans ·… Rutgers fans · 26th Rutgers Boston College Model · 48% Line · 60% Boston College fans · 72nd Rutgers fans · 26th Boston College favored by 3 · Total 53.5
How games like this usually go Boston College by 3, and it went to form 50% 90% Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 50% 90% Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Half of games 8 in 10 games This game
The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 252 games since 2025 with a favorite of under 3.5 points.
The market The spread moved 0.5 points toward Rutgers.
opened −3.5 now −3 The total fell 1 point.
opened 54.5 now 53.5 Spread: −3.5 → −3 · Total: 54.5 → 53.5
The books’ cut: 4.3%, the margin built into the odds
Home field Boston College is worth +1.7 points (±3.5) more at home than on the road since 2018 — bottom third of FBS, 13th percentile.
46% at home, 36% on the road against FBS opponents (22-26 home, 16-29 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why ); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -0.0 at home vs. away over 100 games — inside the ±6.1 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. The visitors travel about 212 miles to get here.