The rest of the season
Two real tests left: Toledo 36%, Miami (OH) 60%
Win out 17% · expect 1.8 of 3 more wins
Ohio's chance to win each game left, from our model: Miami (OH) 60%, Ball State 81%, Toledo 36%Bar height is our model’s chance in each game left. Dashed line: 50%.
Standing1st in the Mid-American · 5-0 in conference play · All standings
LeadersPassing Nick Poulos 966 · Rushing Duncan Brune 463 · Receiving Riley Neer 550 All player stats
Updated Wed Nov 4 · through week 10
Follow Ohio:athletics siteXYouTube
A tight one: Ohio bottomed out at 39% and won.
Ohio 28-20 Akron
Ohio wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.The three plays that swung it
| Wk | Date | Our rank | Opp rank | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf | Top performers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 5 | #50 | #40 | +23.5✗ −4.5 | @Nebraska | L 21-49 139 | 0-1 | 0-0 | Pass Poulos 164 · Rush Poulos 70 · Rec Neer 104 |
| 2 | Sep 12 | #48 | #69 | −1.5✓ +0.5 | Jacksonville State | W 29-27 138 | 1-1 | 0-0 | Pass Vezza 80 · Rush Vezza 67 · Rec Neer 38 |
| 3 | Sep 19 | #54 | #64 | +7✓ +2 | @South Alabama | L 36-41 129 | 1-2 | 0-0 | Pass Davis 121 · Rush Rosa 78 · Rec Neer 61 |
| 4 | Sep 26 | #56 | #233 | −32.5✗ −4.5 | Stonehill | W 35-7 109 | 2-2 | 0-0 | Pass Vezza 207 · Rush Brown 97 · Rec Neer 113 |
| 5 | Oct 3 | #60 | #134 | −3.5✗ −0.5 | @Kent State | W 13-10 120 | 3-2 | 1-0 | Pass Vezza 38 · Rush Brune 86 · Rec Neer 21 |
| 6 | Oct 10 | #62 | #119 | −2.5✓ +14.5 | Central Michigan | W 31-14 124 | 4-2 | 2-0 | Pass Poulos 158 · Rush Brune 91 · Rec Neer 59 |
| 7 | Oct 17 | #64 | #202 | −17.5✓ +23.5 | @Sacramento State | W 48-7 116 | 5-2 | 3-0 | Pass Poulos 165 · Rush Brown 87 · Rec Bowman 94 |
| 8 | Oct 24 | #55 | #143 | −11.5✗ −7.5 | Eastern Michigan | W 24-20 121 | 6-2 | 4-0 | Pass Poulos 266 · Rush Rosa 40 · Rec Dorwart 125 |
| 9 | Bye week | ||||||||
| 10 | Nov 3 | #58 | #157 | −12.5✗ −4.5 | @Akron | W 28-20 125 | 7-2 | 5-0 | Pass Poulos 197 · Rush Brune 111 · Rec Dorwart 108 |
| 11 | Nov 10 | #56 | #102 | @Miami (OH) | 7 pm ET · ESPN260% to win | ||||
| 12 | Nov 17 | Ball State | 7 pm ET81% to win | ||||||
| 13 | Nov 27 | Toledo | 12 pm ET36% to win | ||||||
Win chances are our model for Ohio, through 9 games. This week's game comes from the playoff simulation, later games from the rating model. They are estimates and move every week.
The small line beside each score is the team's win chance through the game, drawn on one scale for every game. The small number is total plays.
Line is the closing point spread for Ohio: a minus number means favored. A green check means the team covered it, by the number beside it. A red cross means it fell short by that much.
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Big plays (IsoPPP) | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | @Akron | W 28-20 | 358 | 1 | 24:14 | +0.208 | 32.6% | 2.13 | Most explosive |
| Oct 24 | Eastern Michigan | W 24-20 | 356 | 2 | 27:28 | +0.107 | 45.3% | 1.20 | One-score win |
| Oct 17 | @Sacramento State | W 48-7 | 468 | 0 | 33:11 | +0.476 | 53.0% | 1.24 | Season-high EPA/play |
| Oct 10 | Central Michigan | W 31-14 | 403 | 2 | 33:56 | +0.090 | 53.6% | 0.93 | Best success rate |
| Oct 3 | @Kent State | W 13-10 | 253 | 2 | 28:45 | -0.096 | 47.3% | 0.68 | Season-low EPA/play |
| Sep 26 | Stonehill | W 35-7 | 523 | 1 | 39:20 | +0.350 | 50.7% | 1.31 | Best defensive stand |
| Sep 19 | @South Alabama | L 36-41 | 387 | 2 | 27:30 | +0.385 | 50.0% | 1.43 | One-score loss |
| Sep 12 | Jacksonville State | W 29-27 | 262 | 0 | 31:35 | +0.103 | 40.9% | 0.94 | One-score win |
| Sep 5 | @Nebraska | L 21-49 | 303 | 1 | 29:21 | +0.128 | 35.3% | 1.33 | Defense's roughest night |
| Season average (9 games) | 368 | 1.2 | +0.195 | 45.4% | 1.24 | ||||
Ohio's wildest games since 2013: comebacks, long shots, line misses
Off this week
7 days
until kickoff · at Miami (OH) · Tue Nov 10 · 7 pm ET
Median odds across sportsbooks · Nov 4. A number with a minus is the favorite: −130 means $130 wins $100. A plus is the underdog: +170 means $100 wins $170.
What fans said
Real posts about each game (they name the opponent, a player or a play), chosen by community score · usernames not shown
The games that decide the season
Recent form · last 10 games
8-2 over the last 10, and won the last six.
I thought our support staff, Coach (Shumate), our strength coach and our administration did a great job
Root for Sacramento State over Toledo
Wed 7 pm · Moves Ohio’s conference title chance by 4 points
Our simulation, 20,000 seasons with this one game forced each way. Only games that move the chance by two points or more are listed.
The open questioncan a new staff change the trajectory?
John Hauser inherits a 9-4 program with 65% production returning, but the 126th talent rank and 97% QB continuity demand he prove historic Southeast Ohio football can thrive beyond legacy names.
Statusdeveloping
Written by our model from the storyline records. It can get facts wrong.
Range of outcomes · Ohio · 2026
Regular-season wins: chance of each total, from the game chances above
7 wins 5%; 8 wins 31%; 9 wins 47%; 10 wins 17%Bars are the chance of each regular-season win total, from our model's chance in each game left, through 9 games. Paler bars are the outer 10% at each end. The closed row comes from the season-path projection, which also plays out conference title games and the CFP.
The off-field storyline drawing the most coverage right now. This section collects the drama around the program, kept apart from the analysis.
The optimistic read: momentum, and the 'this is real' takes.
The analytical counter: rankings, results, and 'the hype is ahead of the tape' takes.
John Hauser took over as Ohio's head coach, replacing Brian Smith. It is replaces 4-year head coach Tim Albin (34-19). The coverage has moved from the hire itself to what followed it. The coverage is thin so far, and the story is still developing.
The off-field storyline drawing the most coverage right now. This section collects the drama around the program, kept apart from the analysis.
The 'this hire changes everything' takes: new-era believers making the case early.
The 'show me the body of work' counter: resume gaps, scheme fits, and 'not that guy' reads.
Nothing in our corpus yet.
Only 3 of 1006 board posts mention it, below our floor for calling a community stance. The posts are shown for texture only.
Board health this week (83 posts): 16% positive · 37% neutral · 47% negative. This is the team's mood for the whole week, across all topics. Board posters are a vocal, self-selected slice of the fanbase.
The second-order trail: commits, decommits, portal and staff knock-on from the hire.
More in this tab
This week and this season
What it is like to watch them2026 · 7-2
Measured from 9 games · ranks are among Mid-American teams the same season
Ohio just won its seventh straight bowl game — the second-longest active streak in the country — under its third head coach in three years, a quietly relentless program that loses its coaches to bigger jobs and keeps winning anyway.
Athens doesn't carry a grudge so much as a quiet pride: the Bobcats keep getting their coaches stolen by bigger programs, and they keep reloading and winning bowls. The fanbase has stopped…
Ohio · Game-day weather
Typical at Peden Stadium: kickoff time makes little difference, scores run 88 to 91
Typical weather score at each kickoff time.
Tap a dot to read it.
At kickoff, regular-season Saturdays, 2018 to 2025: 109 at noon, 108 at 3:30 pm, 107 at 7:30 pm. Typical means the average of those Saturdays. It is not a forecast.
Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.
Ohio is the MAC program whose Frank Solich tenure (2005-2020) + the Tim Albin years that followed (2021-2024) + Peden Stadium hill setting define what historic-southeast-Ohio football looks like.
The program ledger
since 2025Roster and recruiting
Top 3 signees
Top community posts · last 12 months · r/cfb
Fans and ratings
Fan confidence a bit lower than recent years
48th percentile among FBS programs
Fan mood index · most recent r/CFB data
More
Each link was checked against two outside sites.
Range of outcomes · Ohio · 2026