Toledo at Sacramento State
Sacramento State (2‑7) hosts Toledo (6‑2). The market has Toledo favored by 25.5. The model gives Toledo a 64% shot. Sacramento State’s offense is at the 3rd percentile on efficiency; Toledo’s defense is at the 86th.
How they got here
Last three games
Toledo · 6-2
Rated 48th in our preseason ratings, 39th now.
2-1 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.
Last three games
Sacramento State · 2-7
Rated 131st in our preseason ratings, 218th now.
1-2 in its last three, capped by a 21-point win over Kent State as a 7.5-point underdog.
Biggest mismatch: Sacramento State’s rushing EPA against Toledo, 88 points
Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.
Sacramento State’s EPA/play against Toledo’s defense
Sacramento State offense, 3rd percentile · Toledo defense, 86th
Toledo’s explosive plays against Sacramento State’s defense
Toledo offense, 97th percentile · Sacramento State defense, 11th
Sacramento State’s rushing EPA against Toledo’s defense
Sacramento State offense, 2nd percentile · Toledo defense, 90th
What’s at stake
Toledo
- Toledo is 2 games back in Mid-American with 3 left to make it up — 28% to win it with a win here, 12% with a loss.
- Toledo is the MAC program whose 1969-1972 35-game unbeaten streak + Glass Bowl venue + the Jason Candle era (2015-2024, 10 seasons) define what historic-MAC-stalwart looks like, now under new coach Mike Jacobs (hired Dec 2025, after Robert Weiner's 2025 interim season).
Sacramento State
- A win would be one of Sacramento State’s biggest of the season — a 179-spot gap in the power ratings.
Face-off
What each fanbase carries into this one.
Toledo
The chip · vs the national mediaFans know the drill — the national conversation treats the MAC as a place big jobs go shopping for coaches, and Toledo as the supplier rather than the contender. They want the new staff to prove the Rockets are a destination worth respecting, not just a launchpad.
Sacramento State
The chip · vs the blue bloodsSac State fans believe the Sacramento market, a $57M NIL base, and a new stadium are exactly what Power programs take for granted — and that the Hornets are building it themselves, from scratch, with no inherited infrastructure. They say the FBS will learn what the Big Sky already knows: this program punches up.
Best players
Toledo
- Julian Fox (LB) · 64 tackles
- Isaac Zay (LB) · 60 tackles
- Armorion Smith (S) · 58 tackles
Sacramento State
- Boogsie Silvera (S) · 71 tackles
- Matthew Coleman (WR) · 492 receiving yards
- Amari Wallace (S) · 41 tackles
The betting line, and the fans
Sacramento State fans are in a better mood than Toledo fans (81st percentile vs 15th among FBS fanbases), even with Toledo favored.
- Model · 36%
- Line · 2%
- Sacramento State fans · 81st
- Toledo fans · 15th
Toledo favored by 25.5 · Total 52.5
Toledo by 25.5: where a favorite like this usually runs
Half of games8 in 10 games
Toledo’s chance through the game, if this goes like the 431 games since 2025 with a favorite of 21.5 points or more.
Weather at kickoff
Typical at Hornet Stadium: 7:30 pm Saturdays score 96, 3:30 pm Saturdays 87
Toledo at Sacramento State · Wednesday, Nov. 4 · 7 pm ET · Hornet Stadium.
Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.
If it kicked off at
Typical at Hornet Stadium: noon Saturdays score 89, 3:30 pm 87, 7:30 pm 96.
- noon: 89, Mixed
- 3:30 pm: 87, Mixed
- 7:30 pm: 96, Comfortable
Typical weather score at each kickoff time.
Typical means the average of regular-season Saturdays at this stadium, 2018 to 2025. It is not a forecast for this game.
Home field
Sacramento State is worth −2.9 points (±12.3) more at home than on the road since 2018 — bottom tenth of FBS, 0th percentile.
25% at home, 15% on the road against FBS opponents (1-3 home, 2-11 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -3.0 at home vs. away over 61 games — inside the ±7.6 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
The visitors travel about 1,993 miles to get here.
Season profile
Week by week
Sacramento State
- Wk 4Lvs Massachusetts6-35
- Wk 6Lat Bowling Green10-38
- Wk 7Lvs Ohio7-48
- Wk 8Lat Ball State17-34
- Wk 9Wvs Kent State31-10
Toledo
- Wk 4Wvs San Diego State41-16
- Wk 5Wat Ball State39-24
- Wk 6Lvs Buffalo8-23
- Wk 7Wat Eastern Michigan34-14
- Wk 8Wvs Western Michigan45-38
Power rating by week
Toledo is rated 15.3 points ahead as of week 10. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
The market
The spread moved 1 point toward Sacramento State.
The total rose 1 point.
Spread: +26.5 → +25.5 · Total: 51.5 → 52.5
The books’ cut: 3.7%, the margin built into the odds
Conference standings
Going into this game: place in the conference, then conference record.
- Sacramento State12th1-5
- Toledo4th3-1