Fresno State routs Sacramento State 49-3
Team pages: Sacramento State · Fresno State
Fresno State routed Sacramento State 49-3. Share this game
We had Fresno State favored. It won.
How it swung
Before kickoff, our ratings gave Fresno State a 76% chance, and the closing betting line (Fresno State was a 17.5-point favorite) put it at 92%.
Fresno State 49-3 Sacramento State
Fresno State wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.Sacramento State 3-49 Fresno StateSacramento State lostMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.No single play moved the chance by 20 points.
No single play moved the chance by 20 points.
How to read this chart
Starts from the pregame line (Fresno State -17.5), at 92% for Fresno State (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores.Every drive
Fresno State scored on 8 of its 11 drives; Sacramento State on 1 of its 11.
Fresno State’s drives are teal, Sacramento State’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.
What it cost
Sacramento State’s chance to win the conference fell from 11% to 10%.
Win the conference
Before the game (September 12, 2026) → after this result, in our model.
Box score
Fresno State 49, Sacramento State 3
Fresno State covered −17.5 by 28.5. The total, 52, went over 43.5.
| Team totals | Sacramento State | Fresno State |
|---|---|---|
| Total yards | 262 | 542 |
| Passing | 15 of 31, 150 yds | 26 of 30, 349 yds |
| Rushing | 34 for 112 yds | 33 for 193 yds |
| First downs | 16 | 26 |
| Third down | 3 of 13 | 4 of 8 |
| Fourth down | 1 of 4 | 0 of 1 |
| Turnovers | 1 | 0 |
| Penalties | 7 for 60 yds | 4 for 35 yds |
| Time of possession | 28:47 | 31:13 |
Sacramento State leaders
- Passing Jackson Sharman 15 of 31, 150 yds, 1 INT
- Rushing Jamar Curtis 9 for 48 yds; Daniel Swinney 9 for 31 yds
- Receiving Onterrio Smith Jr. 4 for 66 yds; Matthew Coleman 4 for 47 yds
Fresno State leaders
- Passing Jayden Mandal 23 of 26, 316 yds, 2 TD
- Rushing Bryson Donelson 13 for 102 yds, 3 TD; Julius Gillick 7 for 39 yds
- Receiving Ezekiel Avit 2 for 103 yds, 1 TD; Josiah Freeman 6 for 100 yds
No rain, gusts to 33 mph
89° at kickoff · no rain recorded · wind 16 mph from the northwest, mostly at an angle to the field, gusts to 33
A 33 mph gust is stronger than the peak gust in 96% of games since 2018.
Each gray tick is one game. The black line is the typical game.
September game-day temperatures at Valley Children's Stadium
Drag along the chart, or step through the game.
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Where this weather comes from
Measured at Fresno Air Terminal airport, 3.2 miles away. Rain is NOAA's radar-and-gauge estimate at the stadium and wind is an airport reading; neither is measured on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet; rain radar from NOAA MRMS, through Iowa State University. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.Before kickoff
Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.
Recent games
Last two games
Sacramento State · 1-1
Rated 131st in our preseason ratings, 130th now.
1-1 in its last two — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.
Last three games · 2025 season
Fresno State · 9-4
Rated 53rd in our preseason ratings, 51st now.
2-1 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.
W 18-3 vs Miami (OH) #96 of 667
won by 15 as a 5.5-point favorite
W 41-14 @ San José State #170 of 667
won by 27 as a 3.5-point favorite
L 17-28 vs Utah State #92 of 667
lost by 11 as a 1.5-point favorite
W 24-3 vs Wyoming #131 of 667
won by 21 as a 2.5-point favorite
W 30-7 @ Boise StateTop 25 #51 of 667
won by 23 as a 17.5-point underdog
L 0-23 vs San Diego State #54 of 667
lost by 23 as a 3.5-point underdog
L 21-49 @ Colorado State #98 of 667
lost by 28 as a 5.5-point favorite
W 20-17 vs Nevada #153 of 667
won by 3 as a 13.5-point favorite
W 23-21 @ Hawai'i #152 of 667
won by 2 as a 2.5-point favorite
W 56-7 vs Southern #228 of 667
won by 49 as a 35.5-point favorite
W 36-27 @ Oregon State #82 of 667
won by 9 as a 1.5-point underdog
W 42-14 vs Georgia Southern #94 of 667
won by 28 as a 2.5-point favorite
L 7-31 @ Kansas #28 of 667
lost by 24 as a 14.5-point underdog
Week by week
Fresno State
- Wk 1Lat USC0-39
Sacramento State
- Wk 1Lat Eastern Michigan17-28
- Wk 1Wvs Mississippi Valley State52-0
Matchups
Biggest mismatch: Sacramento State’s explosive plays against Fresno State, 71 points
Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.
Sacramento State’s explosive plays against Fresno State’s defense
Sacramento State offense, 1st percentile · Fresno State defense, 72nd
Sacramento State’s EPA/play against Fresno State’s defense
Sacramento State offense, 4th percentile · Fresno State defense, 65th
Sacramento State’s rushing EPA against Fresno State’s defense
Sacramento State offense, 5th percentile · Fresno State defense, 63rd
Season profile, all the rows
Season profile
The series
Fresno State leads the series 5-0
5 meetings since 1972 · Fresno State has won the last 5
- 2024Fresno State 46-30
- 2019Fresno State 34-20
- 2016Fresno State 31-3
- 2007Fresno State 24-3
- 1972Fresno State 24-7
Each line is Fresno State’s chance to win through that meeting. Older meetings have no play by play, so no line.
Line, fans and home field
The betting line, and the fans
Fresno State fans are feeling it more than most fanbases this week (67th among FBS fanbases), in line with the numbers.
- Model · 76%
- Line · 92%
- Fresno State fans · 67th
- Sacramento State fans · 11th
Fresno State favored by 17.5 · Total 43.5
How games like this usually go
Fresno State by 17.5, and it went to form
Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game
The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 251 games since 2025 with a favorite of 14.5 to 21.5 points.
The market
The spread moved 1 point toward Sacramento State.
The total fell 5 points.
Spread: −18.5 → −17.5 · Total: 48.5 → 43.5
The books’ cut: 4.3%, the margin built into the odds
Weather at kickoff
Warm and dry. Feels like 82° at kickoff.
Sacramento State at Fresno State · Saturday, Sept. 12, 2026 · Valley Children's Stadium, Fresno
- 82°feels like at kickoff
- Dryno rain at kickoff
- 90weather score, Comfortable
- Bestof the day's 4 kickoff times
At kickoff, Sept. 12, 2026.
Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.
Later kickoff times scored higher that Saturday
Games in this time zone used 4 kickoff times that day, local time (kickoffs within 30 minutes of each other count as one). This game, ringed, was the best of the day's four kickoff times. At Valley Children's Stadium that day, a 12:30 pm kickoff would have scored 55, against 90 at 7:30 pm.
- 12:30 pm: 55, Rough
- 4:15 pm: 57, Rough
- 6 pm: 74, Rough
- 7:30 pm: 90, Comfortable (this game)
Weather score at each kickoff time.
Tap a dot to read that kickoff time.
At kickoff, Sept. 12, 2026. Wind is not drawn here; gusts are in each score.
Home field
Fresno State is worth +4.8 points (±3.8) more at home than on the road since 2018 — middle of FBS, 62nd percentile.
69% at home, 54% on the road against FBS opponents (29-13 home, 28-24 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +0.4 at home vs. away over 99 games — inside the ±6.6 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. The visitors travel about 151 miles to get here.