The rest of the season
Three real tests left: Alcorn State 45%, Grambling 51%, Bethune-Cookman 62%
Win out 14% · expect 1.6 of 3 more wins
Southern's chance to win each game left, from our model: Bethune-Cookman 62%, Alcorn State 45%, Grambling 51%Bar height is our model’s chance in each game left. Dashed line: 50%.
LeadersPassing Christian Johnson 1,171 · Rushing Trey Holly 1,033 · Receiving Daejawn Smith 299 All player stats
Updated Wed Nov 4 · through week 9
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| Wk | Date | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf | Top performers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aug 29 | Alabama State (N) | L 17-30 | 0-1 | 0-1 | Pass Johnson 174 · Rush Johnson 81 · Rec Smith 76 |
| 1 | Sep 5 | Kentucky State | W 34-15 | 1-1 | 0-1 | Pass Johnson 200 · Rush Holly 99 · Rec Smith 72 |
| 2 | Sep 12 | @Houston | L 6-77 106 | 1-2 | 0-1 | Pass McCauley 85 · Rush Asberry 6 · Rec Clark Jr. 79 |
| 3 | Sep 19 | Louisiana Christian | W 50-31 | 2-2 | 0-1 | Pass Johnson 172 · Rush Holly 200 · Rec Dixon 47 |
| 4 | Sep 26 | @Jackson State | L 17-35 | 2-3 | 0-2 | Pass Johnson 153 · Rush Holly 97 · Rec Dixon 48 |
| 5 | Oct 3 | Arkansas-Pine Bluff | L 10-41 | 2-4 | 0-3 | Pass McCauley 141 · Rush Holly 114 · Rec Dixon 60 |
| 6 | Oct 10 | @Prairie View A&M | W 28-14 | 3-4 | 1-3 | Pass Johnson 207 · Rush Holly 121 · Rec Henderson Jr. 115 |
| 7 | Bye week | |||||
| 8 | Oct 24 | @Texas Southern | L 21-24 | 3-5 | 1-4 | Pass Johnson 124 · Rush Holly 156 · Rec Henderson Jr. 52 |
| 9 | Oct 31 | @Florida A&M | W 42-14 | 4-5 | 2-4 | Pass Johnson 112 · Rush Holly 204 · Rec Jefferson 32 |
| 10 | Nov 7 | Bethune-Cookman | 3 pm ET62% to win | |||
| 11 | Nov 14 | Alcorn State | 3 pm ET45% to win | |||
| 12 | Bye week | |||||
| 13 | Nov 28 | Grambling (N) | 2 pm ET51% to win | |||
Win chances are our model for Southern, through 9 games. This week's game comes from the playoff simulation, later games from the rating model. They are estimates and move every week.
The small line beside each score is the team's win chance through the game, drawn on one scale for every game. The small number is total plays.
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Big plays (IsoPPP) | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31 | @Florida A&M | W 42-14 | — | — | — | +0.477 | 50.0% | 1.41 | Season-high EPA/play |
| Oct 24 | @Texas Southern | L 21-24 | — | — | — | +0.030 | 41.2% | 1.16 | One-score loss |
| Oct 10 | @Prairie View A&M | W 28-14 | — | — | — | −0.007 | 30.4% | 1.63 | Most explosive |
| Oct 3 | Arkansas-Pine Bluff | L 10-41 | — | — | — | +0.097 | 35.8% | 1.23 | Blowout loss |
| Sep 26 | @Jackson State | L 17-35 | — | — | — | +0.034 | 37.7% | 1.18 | |
| Sep 19 | Louisiana Christian | W 50-31 | — | — | — | +0.465 | 47.9% | 1.52 | |
| Sep 12 | @Houston | L 6-77 | 121 | 3 | 21:42 | −0.309 | 13.6% | 1.40 | Season-low EPA/play |
| Sep 5 | Kentucky State | W 34-15 | — | — | — | +0.234 | 37.3% | 1.40 | |
| Aug 29 | Alabama State | L 17-30 | — | — | — | +0.177 | 34.8% | 1.34 | |
| Season average (9 games) | 121 | 3.0 | +0.133 | 36.5% | 1.36 | ||||
The games that decide the season
Recent form · last 10 games
5-5 over the last 10, and won the last one.
Range of outcomes · Southern · 2026
Regular-season wins: chance of each total, from the game chances above
4 wins 10%; 5 wins 36%; 6 wins 40%; 7 wins 14%Bars are the chance of each regular-season win total, from our model's chance in each game left, through 9 games. Paler bars are the outer 10% at each end. The closed row comes from the season-path projection, which also plays out conference title games and the FCS playoff.
More in this tab
What it is like to watch them2026 · 4-5
Measured from 9 games · ranks are among SWAC teams the same season
Southern is 4-5 and hosts Bethune-Cookman next.
Southern is 4-5 and hosts Bethune-Cookman next.
Each link was checked against two outside sites.
Range of outcomes · Southern · 2026