Texas Southern beats Southern 24-21
Team pages: Southern · Texas Southern
Texas Southern beat Southern 24-21. Share this game
We had Southern favored. Texas Southern won.
Next: Southern at Florida A&M, Sat Oct 31 · 3:00 PM ET
Next: Texas Southern vs Grambling, Sat Oct 31 · 8:30 PM ET
How it swung
The turning point: Holly 2-yd TD run, ties it 21-21 (Q4, 4:24). Texas Southern went from 92% to 66% to win.
Before kickoff, our ratings gave Texas Southern a 37% chance, and the closing betting line (Texas Southern was a 1.5-point favorite) put it at 55%.
The edge changed hands 4 times before Texas Southern won it.
Up to 73% in the first quarter, then Southern lost it.
Texas Southern · Q2 9:02Texas Southern 24-21 Southern
Texas Southern wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.Southern 21-24 Texas SouthernSouthern lostMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.The two plays that swung it
- 1Q4 4:24Holly 2-yd TD run, ties it 21-21Texas Southern 92% → 66% (−26)
- 2Q4 0:01Arana 46-yd field goal, Texas Southern goes ahead 24-21Texas Southern 74% → 100% (+26)
The two plays that swung it
- 1Q4 4:24Holly 2-yd TD run, ties it 21-21Southern 8% → 34% (+26)
- 2Q4 0:01Arana 46-yd field goal, Texas Southern goes ahead 24-21Southern 26% → 0% (−26)
How to read this chart
Starts from the pregame line (Texas Southern -1.5), at 59% for Texas Southern (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Outlined diamonds mark rare plays.Every drive
Texas Southern scored on 4 of its 10 drives; Southern on 3 of its 9.
Texas Southern’s drives are teal, Southern’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.
From Southern’s side
Southern’s best moment: Holly 2-yd TD run, ties it 21-21 (Q4 4:24). It lifted Southern’s win chance by 26 points.
Box score
Texas Southern 24, Southern 21
Texas Southern covered −1.5 by 1.5. The total, 45, stayed under 56.5.
Southern leaders
- Passing Christian Johnson 11 of 18, 124 yds, 2 TD
- Rushing Trey Holly 35 for 156 yds, 1 TD; Mike Franklin 7 for 32 yds
- Receiving Damien Henderson Jr. 3 for 52 yds, 1 TD; Trey Holly 4 for 29 yds
Texas Southern leaders
- Passing Cam'Ron McCoy 5 of 8, 42 yds
- Rushing Athean Renfro 23 for 135 yds, 1 TD; Cam'Ron McCoy 16 for 71 yds, 1 TD
- Receiving Roriyon Richardson 2 for 28 yds; Kordell Rodgers 1 for 7 yds
Before kickoff
Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.
Recent games
Last three games
Southern · 3-4
Rated 201st in our preseason ratings, 224th now.
1-2 in its last three, capped by a 14-point win over Prairie View A&M as a 15.5-point underdog.
L 17-35 @ Jackson State No. 122 of 668 teams
lost by 18 as a 20.5-point underdog
W 34-15 vs Kentucky State No. 287 of 668 teams
Last three games
Texas Southern · 1-5
Rated 209th in our preseason ratings, 252nd now.
Three straight losses.
L 34-38 vs Mississippi Valley State No. 260 of 668 teams
lost by 4 as a 14-point favorite
L 10-66 @ Florida Atlantic No. 103 of 668 teams
lost by 56 as a 47.5-point underdog
L 14-52 @ Prairie View A&M No. 109 of 668 teams
lost by 38 as a 10.5-point underdog
W 42-30 vs North Carolina Central No. 167 of 668 teams
won by 12 as a 10.5-point underdog
Week by week
Texas Southern
- Wk 1Lat Prairie View A&M14-52
- Wk 2Lat UTEP10-51
- Wk 4Lat Alcorn State40-43
- Wk 5Lat Florida Atlantic10-66
- Wk 6Lvs Mississippi Valley State34-38
Southern
- Wk 2Lat Houston6-77
- Wk 3Wvs Louisiana Christian50-31
- Wk 4Lat Jackson State17-35
- Wk 5Lvs Arkansas-Pine Bluff10-41
- Wk 6Wat Prairie View A&M28-14
Power rating by week
Southern is rated 2.1 points ahead as of week 7. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
The series
Southern leads the series 12-6-1
19 meetings since 1977 · Texas Southern won the last meeting
- 2025Texas Southern 35-30
- 2024Southern 22-19
- 2023Southern 23-17
- 2022 · neutral siteTexas Southern 24-0
- 2021Texas Southern 35-31
Line, fans and home field
The betting line, and the fans
Our model and the betting line don’t fully agree on Texas Southern’s chances here.
Texas Southern favored by 1.5 · Total 56.5
How games like this usually go
Texas Southern by 1.5, and it went to form
Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game
The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 286 games since 2025 with a favorite of under 3.5 points.
The market
The books’ cut: 5.3%, the margin built into the odds
Home field
Home-field advantage: Bottom third of FBS.
0% at home, 0% on the road against FBS opponents (0-0 home, 0-13 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +4.6 at home vs. away over 50 games — inside the ±10.2 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
The visitors travel about 254 miles to get here.
Where next
Conference standings
Going into this game: place in the conference, then conference record.
- Texas Southern12th0-3
- Southern11th1-3