The rest of the season
Two real tests left: Alabama State 52%, Alcorn State 56%
Win out 29% · expect 2.1 of 3 more wins
Jackson State's chance to win each game left, from our model: Mississippi Valley State 98%, Alabama State 52%, Alcorn State 56%Bar height is our model’s chance in each game left. Dashed line: 50%.
LeadersPassing Jared Lockhart 1,704 · Rushing Nate Blount IV 575 · Receiving Nathan Rembert 663 All player stats
Updated Wed Nov 4 · through week 8
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| Wk | Date | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf | Top performers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aug 29 | @Tennessee State | W 26-24 | 1-0 | 0-0 | Pass Lockhart 222 · Rush Blount 101 · Rec Jones 117 |
| 1 | Sep 5 | Edward Waters | W 66-14 | 2-0 | 0-0 | Pass Lockhart 388 · Rush Blount 67 · Rec Rembert 179 |
| 2 | Bye week | |||||
| 3 | Sep 19 | Tuskegee | W 41-7 | 3-0 | 0-0 | Pass Lockhart 376 · Rush Blount 108 · Rec Lockhart 101 |
| 4 | Sep 26 | Southern | W 35-17 | 4-0 | 1-0 | Pass Lockhart 165 · Rush Blount 135 · Rec Rembert 87 |
| 5 | Oct 3 | Alabama A&M (N) | W 31-28 | 5-0 | 2-0 | Pass Lockhart 169 · Rush Blount 88 · Rec Rembert 108 |
| 6 | Oct 10 | @Grambling | L 38-45 | 5-1 | 2-1 | Pass Tyler 111 · Rush Pryor 166 · Rec Rembert 101 |
| 7 | Oct 17 | Florida A&M | W 27-17 | 6-1 | 3-1 | Pass Lockhart 98 · Rush Pryor 80 · Rec Jones 36 |
| 8 | Oct 24 | @Bethune-Cookman | L 21-24 | 6-2 | 3-2 | Pass Lockhart 211 · Rush Pryor 61 · Rec Rembert 118 |
| 9 | Bye week | |||||
| 10 | Nov 7 | Mississippi Valley State | 3 pm ET98% to win | |||
| 11 | Nov 14 | @Alabama State | 3 pm ET52% to win | |||
| 12 | Nov 21 | @Alcorn State | 3 pm ET56% to win | |||
Win chances are our model for Jackson State, through 8 games. This week's game comes from the playoff simulation, later games from the rating model. They are estimates and move every week.
The small line beside each score is the team's win chance through the game, drawn on one scale for every game. The small number is total plays.
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Big plays (IsoPPP) | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24 | @Bethune-Cookman | L 21-24 | — | — | — | −0.139 | 30.3% | 1.56 | Season-low EPA/play |
| Oct 17 | Florida A&M | W 27-17 | — | — | — | −0.044 | 34.8% | 0.86 | |
| Oct 10 | @Grambling | L 38-45 | — | — | — | +0.104 | 39.7% | 1.54 | One-score loss |
| Oct 3 | Alabama A&M | W 31-28 | — | — | — | +0.203 | 40.0% | 1.20 | One-score win |
| Sep 26 | Southern | W 35-17 | — | — | — | +0.385 | 50.0% | 1.39 | |
| Sep 19 | Tuskegee | W 41-7 | — | — | — | +0.326 | 42.4% | 1.53 | Best defensive stand |
| Sep 5 | Edward Waters | W 66-14 | — | — | — | +0.556 | 59.5% | 1.44 | Season-high EPA/play |
| Aug 29 | @Tennessee State | W 26-24 | — | — | — | +0.285 | 43.8% | 1.19 | Defense's roughest night |
| Season average (8 games) | — | — | +0.209 | 42.6% | 1.34 | ||||
The games that decide the season
Recent form · last 10 games
7-3 over the last 10, and lost the last one.
We understand the situation that we’re in. You know, it’s the ebbs and flows. You know, when he was the GA and then he was back and then he wasn’t again.
Range of outcomes · Jackson State · 2026
Regular-season wins: chance of each total, from the game chances above
7 wins 22%; 8 wins 49%; 9 wins 29%Bars are the chance of each regular-season win total, from our model's chance in each game left, through 8 games. Paler bars are the outer 10% at each end. The closed row comes from the season-path projection, which also plays out conference title games and the FCS playoff.
More in this tab
What it is like to watch them2026 · 6-2
Measured from 8 games · ranks are among SWAC teams the same season
Jackson State is proving that institutional strength survives the departure of individual legends. Deion left for Colorado; T.C. Taylor made the program stronger. This is what faith in the institution looks like.
Jackson State football is an HBCU institution proving its strength independent of any one figure. Walter Payton played here. Deion Sanders rebuilt it and left for Colorado. T.C. Taylor did something harder: he made the program better than the legend that preceded him. This is what institutional resilience looks like.
Each link was checked against two outside sites.
Range of outcomes · Jackson State · 2026