The rest of the season
Two real tests left: Jackson State 44%, Southern 55%
Win out 21% · expect 1.8 of 3 more wins
Alcorn State's chance to win each game left, from our model: Florida A&M 84%, Southern 55%, Jackson State 44%Bar height is our model’s chance in each game left. Dashed line: 50%.
LeadersPassing Jaylon Tolbert 2,681 · Rushing Fred Robertson 582 · Receiving Armon Wright 428 All player stats
Updated Wed Nov 4 · through week 9
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| Wk | Date | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf | Top performers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aug 29 | Miles | W 56-7 | 1-0 | 0-0 | Pass Tolbert 265 · Rush McDonald 34 · Rec Ebron 63 |
| 1 | Sep 5 | @Southern Miss | L 3-49 142 | 1-1 | 0-0 | Pass Tolbert 119 · Rush Tate 33 · Rec Kelly 39 |
| 2 | Sep 12 | Arkansas-Pine Bluff (N) | W 53-51 | 2-1 | 1-0 | Pass Tolbert 485 · Rush Temple 144 · Rec Kelly 151 |
| 3 | Sep 19 | @North Alabama | L 20-38 | 2-2 | 1-0 | Pass Tolbert 270 · Rush Robertson 71 · Rec Griffin 87 |
| 4 | Sep 26 | Texas Southern | W 43-40 | 3-2 | 2-0 | Pass Tolbert 332 · Rush Robertson 105 · Rec Robertson 70 |
| 5 | Oct 3 | @Grambling | L 59-63 | 3-3 | 2-1 | Pass Tolbert 411 · Rush Robertson 105 · Rec Jones 140 |
| 6 | Oct 10 | Arkansas Baptist | W 63-7 | 4-3 | 2-1 | Pass Tolbert 123 · Rush McDonald 88 · Rec Wright 52 |
| 7 | Oct 17 | @Prairie View A&M | L 38-41 | 4-4 | 2-2 | Pass Tolbert 356 · Rush Robertson 105 · Rec Robertson 92 |
| 8 | Bye week | |||||
| 9 | Oct 31 | @Mississippi Valley State | W 52-17 | 5-4 | 3-2 | Pass Tolbert 320 · Rush Robertson 81 · Rec Wright 126 |
| 10 | Nov 7 | Florida A&M | 3 pm ET84% to win | |||
| 11 | Nov 14 | @Southern | 3 pm ET55% to win | |||
| 12 | Nov 21 | Jackson State | 3 pm ET44% to win | |||
Win chances are our model for Alcorn State, through 9 games. This week's game comes from the playoff simulation, later games from the rating model. They are estimates and move every week.
The small line beside each score is the team's win chance through the game, drawn on one scale for every game. The small number is total plays.
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Big plays (IsoPPP) | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31 | @Mississippi Valley State | W 52-17 | — | — | — | +0.602 | 64.2% | 1.28 | Season-high EPA/play |
| Oct 17 | @Prairie View A&M | L 38-41 | — | — | — | +0.245 | 42.9% | 1.74 | Most explosive |
| Oct 10 | Arkansas Baptist | W 63-7 | — | — | — | +0.349 | 62.5% | 1.07 | Best defensive stand |
| Oct 3 | @Grambling | L 59-63 | — | — | — | +0.449 | 49.3% | 1.71 | Defense's roughest night |
| Sep 26 | Texas Southern | W 43-40 | — | — | — | +0.402 | 47.7% | 1.41 | One-score win |
| Sep 19 | @North Alabama | L 20-38 | — | — | — | −0.086 | 31.7% | 1.35 | |
| Sep 12 | Arkansas-Pine Bluff | W 53-51 | — | — | — | +0.235 | 52.7% | 1.25 | One-score win |
| Sep 5 | @Southern Miss | L 3-49 | 223 | 5 | 28:39 | −0.128 | 21.3% | 1.65 | Season-low EPA/play |
| Aug 29 | Miles | W 56-7 | — | — | — | +0.425 | 54.3% | 1.35 | Blowout win |
| Season average (9 games) | 223 | 5.0 | +0.277 | 47.4% | 1.42 | ||||
The games that decide the season
Recent form · last 10 games
5-5 over the last 10, and won the last one.
Range of outcomes · Alcorn State · 2026
Regular-season wins: chance of each total, from the game chances above
5 wins 4%; 6 wins 29%; 7 wins 47%; 8 wins 21%Bars are the chance of each regular-season win total, from our model's chance in each game left, through 9 games. Paler bars are the outer 10% at each end. The closed row comes from the season-path projection, which also plays out conference title games and the FCS playoff.
More in this tab
What it is like to watch them2026 · 5-4
Measured from 9 games · ranks are among SWAC teams the same season
Alcorn State is 5-4 and hosts Florida A&M next.
Alcorn State is 5-4 and hosts Florida A&M next.
Each link was checked against two outside sites.
Range of outcomes · Alcorn State · 2026