Alcorn State beats Arkansas-Pine Bluff 53-51 in 2 overtimes

Team pages: Arkansas-Pine Bluff · Alcorn State

Arkansas-Pine Bluff1-251
Alcorn State2-153Final
Sat, Sep 12 · Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium, Memphis, Tenn. (neutral site) · Crowd 21,881

Alcorn State beat Arkansas-Pine Bluff 53-51 in 2 overtimes after its win chance fell to 5%.

Winners have been down to 5% or less in about 1 of every 25 games since 2018.

We had Alcorn State favored. It won.

Next: Arkansas-Pine Bluff beat Central State 41-35, Sat Sep 19

Next: Alcorn State lost to North Alabama 38-20, Sat Sep 19

How it swung

The turning point: Tolbert intercepted by Henderson at the Arkansas-Pine Bluff 0 and returned for a TD (Q4, 14:44). Alcorn State went from 51% to 14% to win.

Before kickoff, our ratings gave Alcorn State a 64% chance, and the closing betting line (Alcorn State was a 8.5-point favorite) put it at 75%.

21 unansweredArkansas-Pine Bluff · Q3 10:25
Last play we haveAlcorn State 53-51 Arkansas-Pine BluffPlay-by-play ends earlyMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.
50%10%25%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q41OT2OT77% at halfAlcorn StateLowest 5%Playsend123−37−22+37Scores21 unanswered
50%10%25%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4OT77% at halfAlcorn StateLowest 5%Playsend123Scores21 unanswered
50%10%25%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q41OT2OT23% at halfAlcorn StateHigh 95%Playsend123+37+22−37Scores21 unanswered
50%10%25%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4OT23% at halfAlcorn StateHigh 95%Playsend123Scores21 unanswered

The three plays that swung it

  1. 1Q4 14:44Interception4th and 8Tolbert intercepted by Henderson at the Arkansas-Pine Bluff 0 and returned for a TDAlcorn State 51% → 14% (−37)
  2. 2OTDavis 7-yd TD pass to Summers, Arkansas-Pine Bluff goes ahead 45-38Alcorn State 63% → 41% (−22)
  3. 32OTTemple 2-yd TD run, Alcorn State goes ahead 53-45Alcorn State 59% → 96% (+37)

The three plays that swung it

  1. 1Q4 14:44Interception4th and 8Tolbert intercepted by Henderson at the Arkansas-Pine Bluff 0 and returned for a TDArkansas-Pine Bluff 49% → 86% (+37)
  2. 2OTDavis 7-yd TD pass to Summers, Arkansas-Pine Bluff goes ahead 45-38Arkansas-Pine Bluff 37% → 59% (+22)
  3. 32OTTemple 2-yd TD run, Alcorn State goes ahead 53-45Arkansas-Pine Bluff 41% → 4% (−37)
Alcorn State’s chance to win after every play.
How to read this chartStarts from the pregame line (Alcorn State -8.5), at 75% for Alcorn State (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Outlined diamonds mark rare plays.

Every drive

Alcorn State scored on 8 of its 16 drives; Arkansas-Pine Bluff on 7 of its 14.

Alcorn State’s drives are teal, Arkansas-Pine Bluff’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

own goalgoal lineQ1Alcorn State: Touchdown, from 86 yards out to 0TouchdownArkansas-Pine Bluff: Field goal, from 49 yards out to 9Field goalAlcorn State: Touchdown, from 75 yards out to 0TouchdownArkansas-Pine Bluff: Touchdown, from 74 yards out to 0TouchdownQ2Alcorn State: Punt, from 73 yards out to 59PuntArkansas-Pine Bluff: Interception, from 80 yards out to 58InterceptionAlcorn State: Touchdown, from 51 yards out to 0TouchdownArkansas-Pine Bluff: Touchdown, from 72 yards out to 0TouchdownAlcorn State: Missed field goal, from 75 yards out to 17Missed FGQ3Arkansas-Pine Bluff: Punt, from 57 yards out to 54PuntAlcorn State: Punt, from 89 yards out to 80PuntArkansas-Pine Bluff: Touchdown, from 38 yards out to 0TouchdownAlcorn State: Punt, from 75 yards out to 66PuntArkansas-Pine Bluff: Punt, from 79 yards out to 72PuntAlcorn State: Punt, from 78 yards out to 59PuntArkansas-Pine Bluff: Fumble, from 78 yards out to 56FumbleAlcorn State: Interception returned for a touchdown, from 44 yards out to 8Interception TDQ4Alcorn State: Touchdown, from 75 yards out to 0TouchdownArkansas-Pine Bluff: Touchdown, from 70 yards out to 0TouchdownAlcorn State: Touchdown, from 68 yards out to 0TouchdownArkansas-Pine Bluff: Punt, from 71 yards out to 71PuntAlcorn State: Interception, from 65 yards out to 62InterceptionArkansas-Pine Bluff: Missed field goal, from 25 yards out to 24Missed FGAlcorn State: Touchdown, from 76 yards out to 0TouchdownArkansas-Pine Bluff: Punt, from 65 yards out to 64PuntAlcorn State: Missed field goal, from 58 yards out to 6Missed FGOTArkansas-Pine Bluff: Touchdown, from 25 yards out to 0TouchdownAlcorn State: Touchdown, from 25 yards out to 0TouchdownOTAlcorn State: Touchdown, from 25 yards out to 0TouchdownArkansas-Pine Bluff: Touchdown, from 25 yards out to 0Touchdown

From Arkansas-Pine Bluff’s side

Arkansas-Pine Bluff’s best moment: Tolbert intercepted by Henderson at the Arkansas-Pine Bluff 0 and returned for a TD (Q4 14:44). It lifted Arkansas-Pine Bluff’s win chance by 37 points.

The winner fell to 5%.

Box score

Alcorn State 53, Arkansas-Pine Bluff 51

Arkansas-Pine Bluff covered +8.5 by 6.5. The total, 104, went over 49.5.

Arkansas-Pine Bluff leaders

  • Passing Garrison Davis 12 of 24, 167 yds, 4 TD, 1 INT
  • Rushing Jaylen Jennings 16 for 98 yds, 1 TD; Za'Marion Webber 10 for 85 yds, 1 TD
  • Receiving D'Avery Robinson 4 for 89 yds, 2 TD; Jordan Jackson 3 for 43 yds, 1 TD

Alcorn State leaders

  • Passing Jaylon Tolbert 32 of 45, 485 yds, 5 TD, 2 INT
  • Rushing Ernest Temple 28 for 144 yds, 2 TD; Jaylon Tolbert 7 for 36 yds
  • Receiving Tyree Kelly 6 for 151 yds, 2 TD; Armon Wright 6 for 60 yds, 1 TD

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last two games

Arkansas-Pine Bluff · 1-1

Rated 248th in our preseason ratings, 250th now.

1-1 in its last two — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.

L 14-54 @ MissouriTop 25 #42 of 668

lost by 40 as a 55.5-point underdog

Arkansas-Pine Bluff lost 14-54 at Missouri. Never had a real chance.

W 35-15 vs Morehouse #402 of 668

Arkansas-Pine Bluff won 35-15 vs Morehouse. Chance to win started at 50%, low 46%, high better than 99%.

Last two games

Alcorn State · 1-1

Rated 167th in our preseason ratings, 181st now.

1-1 in its last two — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.

L 3-49 @ Southern Miss #57 of 668

lost by 46 as a 20.5-point underdog

Alcorn State lost 3-49 at Southern Miss. Chance to win started at 7%, low under 1%, high 12%.

W 56-7 vs Miles #307 of 668

Week by week

Alcorn State

Wk 1: W 56-7 vs Miles▲49MilesWk 1: L 3-49 at Southern Miss▼46Southern Miss
  • Wk 1Wvs Miles56-7
  • Wk 1Lat Southern Miss3-49

Arkansas-Pine Bluff

Wk 1: W 35-15 vs Morehouse▲20MorehouseWk 1: L 14-54 at Missouri▼40Missouri
  • Wk 1Wvs Morehouse35-15
  • Wk 1Lat Missouri14-54

The series

Alcorn State leads the series 8-6

14 meetings since 2007 · Arkansas-Pine Bluff won the last meeting

Alcorn State wonArkansas-Pine Bluff won2007: Arkansas-Pine Bluff by 182008: Alcorn State by 102010: Arkansas-Pine Bluff by 42011: Arkansas-Pine Bluff by 72012: Arkansas-Pine Bluff by 182013: Alcorn State by 52014: Alcorn State by 502015: Alcorn State by 472016: Arkansas-Pine Bluff by 22021: Alcorn State by 12022: Alcorn State by 172023: Alcorn State by 242024: Alcorn State by 102025: Arkansas-Pine Bluff by 420072025
  • 2025 · neutral siteArkansas-Pine Bluff 24-20
  • 2024Alcorn State 38-28
  • 2023Alcorn State 31-7
  • 2022Alcorn State 38-21
  • 2021Alcorn State 39-38

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

Our model and the betting line don’t fully agree on Alcorn State’s chances here.

50-50Model · 64%Line · 75%Arkansas-Pine BluffAlcorn State

Alcorn State favored by 8.5 · Total 49.5

The market

The books’ cut: 5.3%, the margin built into the odds

Where next

Conference standings

Place in the conference, then conference record.