The rest of the season
Three real tests left: No. 2 Georgia 28%, No. 10 Texas 39%, No. 8 Kentucky 60%
Win out 5% · expect 2.0 of 4 more wins
Missouri's chance to win each game left, from our model: Texas 39%, Georgia 28%, Kentucky 60%, Oklahoma 73%Bar height is our model’s chance in each game left. Dashed line: 50%.
Playoff chance went from 18% to 27%, peaking at 42% before a game
Our model, entering each game. The letter is the result of the game before it.
StandingTied for 5th in the SEC · 3-2 in conference play · All standings
LeadersPassing Austin Simmons 1,935 · Rushing Jamal Roberts 1,005 · Receiving Cayden Lee 730 All player stats
Updated Wed Nov 4 · through week 9
Follow Missouri:athletics siteSECXInstagram
| Wk | Date | Our rank | Opp rank | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf | Top performers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 3 | #38 | #248 | −55.5✗ −15.5 | Arkansas-Pine Bluff | W 54-14 131 | 1-0 | 0-0 | Pass Simmons 252 · Rush Roberts 47 · Rec Olugbode 116 |
| 2 | Sep 11 | #42 | #85 | −4✓ +13 | @Kansas | W 38-21 138 Loud | 2-0 | 0-0 | Pass Simmons 292 · Rush Roberts 125 · Rec Olugbode 121 |
| 3 | Sep 19 | #39 | #119 | −26.5✗ −16.5 | Troy | W 27-17 119 | 3-0 | 0-0 | Pass Simmons 91 · Rush Roberts 128 · Rec Olugbode 31 |
| 4 | Sep 26 | #36 | #75 | +3.5✗ −3.5 | @Mississippi State | L 24-31 153 | 3-1 | 0-1 | Pass Simmons 295 · Rush Roberts 95 · Rec Lee 156 |
| 5 | Oct 3 | #39 | #11 | +5.5✓ +33.5 | FloridaTop 10 win | W 45-17 130 | 4-1 | 1-1 | Pass Simmons 340 · Rush Roberts 211 · Rec Lee 110 |
| 6 | Oct 10 | #28 | #17 | −4.5✓ +16.5 | Texas A&M | W 27-6 134 | 5-1 | 2-1 | Pass Simmons 147 · Rush Roberts 222 · Rec Lee 94 |
| 7 | Oct 17 | #22 | #18 | +4✗ −24 | @Ole Miss | L 3-31 144 | 5-2 | 2-2 | Pass Simmons 339 · Rush Roberts 39 · Rec Olugbode 127 |
| 8 | Bye week | ||||||||
| 9 | Oct 31 | #34 | #102 | −10.5✓ +13.5 | @Arkansas | W 34-10 136 | 6-2 | 3-2 | Pass Simmons 179 · Rush Roberts 138 · Rec Lee 78 |
| 10 | Nov 7 | #29 | #7 | +2.5 | Texas | 12 pm ET · ESPN39% to win | |||
| 11 | Nov 14 | #28 | #3 | @Georgia | time TBA · ABC28% to win | ||||
| 12 | Nov 21 | Kentucky | time TBA60% to win | ||||||
| 13 | Nov 28 | Oklahoma | time TBA | ||||||
Win chances are our model for Missouri, through 8 games. This week's game comes from the playoff simulation, later games from the rating model. They are estimates and move every week.
The small line beside each score is the team's win chance through the game, drawn on one scale for every game. The small number is total plays.
Line is the closing point spread for Missouri: a minus number means favored. A green check means the team covered it, by the number beside it. A red cross means it fell short by that much.
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Big plays (IsoPPP) | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31 | @Arkansas | W 34-10 | 390 | 1 | 31:45 | +0.203 | 42.4% | 1.28 | Best defensive stand |
| Oct 17 | @Ole Miss | L 3-31 | 378 | 1 | 28:54 | -0.026 | 30.0% | 1.64 | Season-low EPA/play |
| Oct 10 | Texas A&M | W 27-6 | 399 | 1 | 31:12 | +0.030 | 36.0% | 1.29 | |
| Oct 3 | Florida | W 45-17 | 560 | 0 | 31:40 | +0.397 | 45.6% | 1.58 | Season-high EPA/play |
| Sep 26 | @Mississippi State | L 24-31 | 414 | 0 | 31:36 | +0.118 | 44.2% | 1.11 | One-score loss |
| Sep 19 | Troy | W 27-17 | 230 | 0 | 22:37 | +0.182 | 32.0% | 1.56 | |
| Sep 11 | @Kansas | W 38-21 | 469 | 1 | 31:21 | +0.135 | 36.5% | 1.37 | |
| Sep 3 | Arkansas-Pine Bluff | W 54-14 | 562 | 1 | 33:58 | +0.378 | 57.0% | 1.19 | Best success rate |
| Season average (8 games) | 425 | 0.6 | +0.177 | 40.5% | 1.38 | ||||
Missouri's wildest games since 2013: comebacks, long shots, line misses
Median odds across sportsbooks · Oct 19. A number with a minus is the favorite: −130 means $130 wins $100. A plus is the underdog: +170 means $100 wins $170.
What fans said
Real posts about each game (they name the opponent, a player or a play), chosen by community score · usernames not shown
The games that decide the season
Recent form · last 10 games
7-3 over the last 10, and won the last one.
The bullet that shattered the tip of Missouri RB Ahmad Hardy ‘s left femur remains lodged in his body, Tigers head coach Eli Drinkwitz told me
27% now · ▲ 8 points in the last week
Our simulation, 20,000 seasons a night, counted from the first full week of games.
The open questionis this a real, durable shift in the program's tier?
Missouri has slipped from elite-tier consistency — the first time below the top-12% tier since 2025, and the gap from the #25 AP peak is structural, not just a roster rebuild.
Statusdeveloping
Written by our model from the storyline records. It can get facts wrong.
Range of outcomes · Missouri · 2026
Regular-season wins: chance of each total, from the game chances above
6 wins 5%; 7 wins 25%; 8 wins 41%; 9 wins 25%; 10 wins 5%Bars are the chance of each regular-season win total, from our model's chance in each game left, through 8 games. Paler bars are the outer 10% at each end. The closed row comes from the season-path projection, which also plays out conference title games and the CFP.
Missouri has slipped from dynasty-caliber territory — down to the top 18% of FBS by three-year power rating, from the top 14%. It is a 27-9 record over the last three regular seasons. The model registered a structural decline before the coverage did, and the coverage is still light.
The 'resurgence is real' read: the numbers are starting to back the hype.
The 'wait and see' counter: power shifts often get overread before the season proves them.
Nothing in our corpus yet.
More in this tab
This week and this season
What it is like to watch them2026 · 6-2
Measured from 8 games · ranks are among SEC teams the same season
Missouri is the program that everyone said couldn't survive the SEC move and quietly made it look obvious — still waiting for the respect that a Show-Me state was never going to ask for twice.
Fans remember every analyst who called the SEC jump a mistake in 2012, and they note that even after two division titles and three top-15 finishes, the previews still treat Missouri as the league's…
Missouri · Game-day weather
Typical at Memorial Stadium: kickoff time makes little difference, scores run 86 to 90
Typical weather score at each kickoff time.
Tap a dot to read it.
At kickoff, 114 regular-season Saturdays at each kickoff time, 2018 to 2025. Typical means the average of those Saturdays. It is not a forecast.
Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.
Missouri is the program that quietly moved from Big 12 doormat to SEC competitor and made the move look obvious in hindsight.
The program ledger
since 2025Roster and recruiting
Top 1 commits
Top community posts · last 12 months · r/cfb
Fans and ratings
Fan confidence in a typical range for this program right now
23rd percentile among FBS programs
69 of 70 AP voters have them ranked, AP ballot, week 9 (2026): from #14, Javon Edmonds (Syracuse Post-Standard), to #24, Sarah Hughes (USA Sports). 1 voter left them off the ballot entirely.
Individual AP Top 25 ballots, AP ballot, week 9, 2026, 70 voters tracked.
Fan mood index · most recent r/CFB data
More
7Missouri has slipped from elite-tier consistency — the first time below the top-12% tier since 2025, and the gap from the #25 AP peak is structural, not just a roster rebuild.
Each link was checked against two outside sites.
Range of outcomes · Missouri · 2026