Next game: vs Texas
Texas’s best edge on Missouri is red zone
Each unit against the one it meets, by national percentile this season. A filled dot is the attack and a ring is the defense it meets; the first name is the attack. Further right is better for both.
Missouri offense against Texas defense
Texas offense against Missouri defense
Percentiles are against all FBS teams this season.
Key stats
Each bar is the team’s national rank as a percentile. A longer bar is better, for defense too.
All 98 stats
FBS rankings · 2026 season · all stats vs 136 FBS programs
| Player | # | G | Cmp/Att | Pct | Yds | Y/A | TD | INT | Rate | ZPR | QBR | Adj ANY/A | Sack% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pocket Passer · +0.30 EPA/play | 13 | 8 | 151 / 239 | 63.2 | 1935 #26 FBS | 8.1 | 16 #23 FBS | 2 | 151.6 | 57 | 66.9 | 8.7 | 2.8 | |
Yards by week → Pocket passerBalanced passer who operates within the system, without one standout number carrying the profile. Impact starter — 239 pass attempts and 22 carries in 8 games, about as many passes and runs a game as a typical FBS quarterback who plays every week. This week's matchup — QB Simmons operates within the system without forcing anything. Stockton is the one who extends plays on the move until something opens up. Season receipt Yards / attempt8.4 70th percentile · FBS QBs, min. 80 attempts Rush usage8.4% bottom 10th percentile · FBS QBs, min. 80 attempts Trait fingerprint Plays like View Austin Simmons's full player page | ||||||||||||||
| -0.10 EPA/play | 5 | 2 | 8 / 13 | 61.5 | 87 | 6.7 | 0 | 0 | 117.8 | — | 25.9 | — | — | |
Yards by week → | ||||||||||||||
| Player | # | G | Car | Yds | Avg | TD | Long | Stuff% | 10+% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Workhorse · +0.12 EPA/play | 20 | 8 | 190 | 1005 #3 FBS | 5.3 | 9 #16 FBS | 80 | 18.7 | 12.6 | |
Yards by week → Workhorse· Boom-or-bustBuilt to take 20+ carries per game. Volume is the value. his yards come in chunks — feast or famine Impact starter — 190 carries and 16 catches in 8 games, more touches a game than nearly every FBS running back who plays every week. This week's matchup — RB Roberts just keeps getting the ball, series after series. Jr. is the one who wins in space out of the backfield. Season receipt Weight216 lb 78th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Receiving share7.8% bottom 30th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Trait fingerprint Plays like View Jamal Roberts's full player page | ||||||||||
| -0.01 EPA/play | 24 | 7 | 39 | 146 | 3.7 | 1 | 17 | — | — | |
Yards by week → | ||||||||||
| Player | # | G | Rec | Yds | Avg | TD | Long | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slot Technician · +0.55 EPA/play | 19 | 8 | 51 | 730 #18 FBS | 14.3 | 5 #39 FBS | 47 | |
Yards by week → Slot technicianRuns precise routes in tight quarters. Volume player who keeps chains moving. Impact starter — 51 catches in 8 games, more catches a game than nearly every FBS receiver who plays every week. This week's matchup — WR Lee wins underneath on volume and route precision. Humphreys is the one who moves the chains on third down. Season receipt Reception volume51 99th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Yards / reception14.7 63th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Cayden Lee's full player page | ||||||||
| Jump-Ball Target · +0.65 EPA/play | 1 | 7 | 41 | 593 #45 FBS | 14.5 | 7 #17 FBS | 65 | |
Yards by week → Jump-ball target· Boom-or-bustWins contested catches at the goal line. Size and catch radius are the weapons. his yards come in chunks — feast or famine Starter — 41 catches and 1 pass attempt in 7 games, more catches a game than nearly every FBS receiver who plays every week. This week's matchup — WR Olugbode wins the 50-50 ball at the goal line. Humphreys is the one who moves the chains on third down. Season receipt TD rate17.1% 89th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Reception volume41 91th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Donovan Olugbode's full player page | ||||||||
| Possession Receiver · -0.18 EPA/play | — | 8 | 13 | 155 | 11.9 | 0 | 34 | |
Yards by week → Possession receiverReliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive. This week's matchup — WR Montgomery moves the chains on third down. Humphreys is the one who moves the chains on third down. Season receipt Yards / reception10.8 bottom 23th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions EPA / play (adj)-0.2 bottom 2th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Naeshaun Montgomery's full player page | ||||||||
| +0.71 EPA/play | 4 | 3 | 9 | 96 | 10.7 | 1 | 25 | |
Yards by week → | ||||||||
| Complete TE · +0.33 EPA/play | 87 | 6 | 10 | 92 | 9.2 | 1 | 14 | |
Yards by week → Complete TENo single go-to route — the receiving numbers show up inline and split out alike. The most common profile in its group this season — 126 of 166 classified this way. Played in 6 of 10 games this season · freshman · 4-star, 2023 class View Brett Norfleet's full player page | ||||||||
| +1.02 EPA/play | 89 | 3 | 5 | 57 | 11.4 | 0 | 22 | |
Yards by week → | ||||||||
| +0.19 EPA/play | 3 | 8 | 5 | 41 | 8.2 | 0 | 18 | |
Yards by week → | ||||||||
| Player | # | G | Tot | Solo | TFL | Sack | Hur |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Two-Gap Base | 92 | 7 | 19 | 5 | 2.5 | 2 | 3 |
Two-gap baseStout at the point of attack — steady tackle-for-loss production without a standout pass-rush number. 19 tackles in 7 games. About as many tackles a game as a typical FBS defensive lineman who plays every week. The most common profile in its group this season — 276 of 606 classified this way. Played in 7 of 10 games this season · freshman · 3-star, 2025 class View Jason Dowell's full player page | |||||||
| Nose Anchor | 95 | 5 | 12 | 2 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
Nose anchorThe heaviest frame on the interior. Sack production is intentionally not the point of this profile. 130 of 606 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Weight335 lb 97th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Jalen Marshall's full player page | |||||||
| 3-Tech Penetrator | 90 | 8 | 11 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
3-tech penetratorDisruptive interior rusher who lives in the backfield. 200 of 606 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate9.1% bottom 30th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Sterling Webb's full player page | |||||||
| 3-Tech Penetrator | 8 | 8 | 11 | 5 | 5.5 | 5 #38 FBS | 7 |
3-tech penetratorDisruptive interior rusher who lives in the backfield. 200 of 606 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate50.0% 100th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Donta Simpson's full player page | |||||||
| 3 | 4 | 7 | 1 | 2.5 | 0 | 0 | |
| 57 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Player | # | G | Tot | Solo | Ast | TFL | Sack | PD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Balanced Linebacker | 5 | 8 | 81 | 37 | 44 | 4 | 1.5 | 0 | 0 |
Balanced linebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. Impact starter — 81 tackles in 8 games, more tackles a game than nearly every FBS linebacker who plays every week. 330 of 564 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume81 99th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles PD rate0.0% bottom 21th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Nicholas Rodriguez's full player page | |||||||||
| Balanced Linebacker | — | 8 | 42 | 12 | 30 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
Balanced linebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. 42 tackles in 8 games. About as many tackles a game as a typical FBS linebacker who plays every week. 330 of 564 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume42 60th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Sack rate0.0% bottom 23th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Robert Woodyard Jr.'s full player page | |||||||||
| Balanced Linebacker | 9 | 7 | 29 | 11 | 18 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 1 | 0 |
Balanced linebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. The most common profile in its group this season — 330 of 564 classified this way. Played in 7 of 10 games this season · freshman · 4-star, 2025 class View Dante McClellan's full player page | |||||||||
| Balanced Linebacker | 6 | 6 | 26 | 10 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Balanced linebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. 330 of 564 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume26 bottom 25th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles TFL rate0.0% bottom 9th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Jeremiah Beasley's full player page | |||||||||
| Speed Rusher | 10 | 8 | 19 | 10 | 9 | 7.5 #73 FBS | 7 #7 FBS | 0 | 0 |
Speed rusherBends the edge and wins with first-step quickness. Lighter frame, relentless motor. 19 tackles in 8 games. Fewer tackles a game than most FBS defensive linemen who play every week. 19 of 180 EDGEs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Sack rate36.8% 100th percentile · FBS EDGE, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Daeden Hopkins's full player page | |||||||||
| Versatile End | 11 | 7 | 16 | 7 | 9 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 1 | 0 |
Versatile endNo single standout number, but nothing missing either — competent across the board. 121 of 180 EDGEs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate21.9% 60th percentile · FBS EDGE, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Langden Kitchen's full player page | |||||||||
| 19 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 17 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Player | # | G | Tot | PD | INT | TFL | Sack |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Box Safety | 15 | 8 | 66 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
Box safetyLives near the line of scrimmage as a de facto extra linebacker. Impact starter — 66 tackles in 8 games, more tackles a game than nearly every FBS defensive back who plays every week. 150 of 657 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume66 100th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Santana Banner's full player page | |||||||
| Box Safety | 7 | 7 | 32 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 0 |
Box safetyLives near the line of scrimmage as a de facto extra linebacker. 32 tackles in 7 games. About as many tackles a game as a typical FBS defensive back who plays every week. 150 of 657 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume32 52th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Kensley Louidor-Faustin's full player page | |||||||
| Press Corner | 2 | 8 | 31 | 7 #20 FBS | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Press cornerLong and physical; jams receivers off their route at the line. 31 tackles in 8 games. About as many tackles a game as a typical FBS defensive back who plays every week. 34 of 244 CBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Height6'4" 99th percentile · FBS corners, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Sione Laulea's full player page | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 22 | 8 | 31 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Hybrid nickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. 31 tackles in 8 games. About as many tackles a game as a typical FBS defensive back who plays every week. The most common profile in its group this season — 358 of 657 classified this way. Played in 8 of 10 games this season · freshman View Elijah Dotson's full player page | |||||||
| Centerfielder | 4 | 7 | 27 | 3 | 3 #16 FBS | 0 | 0 |
Centerfielder· Takeaway threatSingle-high range who erases the deep middle of the field. the kind of DB who takes it back the other way 27 tackles in 7 games. About as many tackles a game as a typical FBS defensive back who plays every week. 116 of 657 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate11.1% 67th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Trajen Greco's full player page | |||||||
| Ball Hawk | 1 | 7 | 15 | 9 #4 FBS | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Ball hawkReads the quarterback's eyes and takes the ball away. 36 of 244 CBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate60.0% 100th percentile · FBS corners, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Chris Graves's full player page | |||||||
| Ball Hawk | 21 | 8 | 10 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Ball hawkReads the quarterback's eyes and takes the ball away. 36 of 244 CBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate50.0% 100th percentile · FBS corners, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Jahlil Florence's full player page | |||||||
| Player | # | G | FG M/A | FG% | XP M/A | Pts | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steady | 19 | 8 | 13/19 | 68.4 | 29/29 | 68 | 53 |
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | TD | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| +0.19 EPA/play | 3 | 8 | 6 | 184 | 30.7 | 0 | 54 |
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | TD | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| +0.19 EPA/play | 3 | 8 | 8 | 131 | 16.4 | 1 | 68 |
Biggest plays from Missouri’s games
Official highlights with our numbers: the plays that moved the chance to win most in Missouri’s games this season, whoever made them.
Q2, 12:58 · Missouri down 3, takes the leadAustin Simmons finds Cayden Lee for a 32-yard touchdownTexas A&M at Missouri, week 6Q2, 12:58 · Missouri 7, Texas A&M 3▼41%Missouri’s chance to win, 69% to 28%▼41%Missouri’s chance to win, 69% to 28%Cayden Lee 32 yd pass from Austin Simmons (Blake Craig Kick)▶Watch from this play
Q2, 5:22 · Missouri down 7, ties itJamal Roberts runs 64 yards for a touchdownMissouri at Kansas, week 2Q2, 5:22 · Missouri 7, Kansas 76464-yard touchdown run6464-yard touchdown run64-yard touchdown runJ.Roberts rush middle for 64 yards gain to the KU00 touchdown, 1ST DOWN, kick good▶Watch from this play
Q4, 7:09 · Mississippi State down 7, ties itFluff Bothwell runs 4 yards for a touchdownMissouri at Mississippi State, week 4Q4, 7:09 · Mississippi State 24, Missouri 24▲23%Mississippi State’s chance to win, 30% to 53%▲23%Mississippi State’s chance to win, 30% to 53%F.Bothwell rush middle for 4 yards gain to the Mizzou00 touchdown, kick good▶Watch from this play- Q4, 3:57 · Mississippi State breaks the tieKamario Taylor finds Sanfrisco Magee for a 24-yard touchdownMissouri at Mississippi State, week 4Q4, 3:57 · Mississippi State 31, Missouri 243:57Go-ahead touchdown for Mississippi State with 3:57 left3:57Go-ahead touchdown for Mississippi State with 3:57 leftGo-ahead touchdown for Mississippi State with 3:57 leftK.Taylor pass complete deep right to S.Magee caught at Mizzou00, for 24 yards to the Mizzou00 touchdown, 1ST DOWN, kick good▶Watch from this play
- Q1, 3:41 · Missouri up 3Missouri scores a touchdownMissouri at Arkansas, week 9Q1, 3:41 · Missouri 10, Arkansas 0Fumble return touchdownFumble return touchdownArkansas rush middle for 34 yards loss to the ARK00 fumbled by Arkansas at ARK29 recovered by MIZ D.Smith at ARK00 touchdown, kick good▶Watch from this play
Q2, 1:48 · Kansas breaks the tieIsaiah Marshall finds Nik McMillan for a 20-yard touchdownMissouri at Kansas, week 2Q2, 1:48 · Kansas 14, Missouri 7Kansas took the lead in the second quarterKansas took the lead in the second quarterI.Marshall pass complete deep left to N.McMillan caught at MU00, for 20 yards to the MU00 touchdown, 1ST DOWN, kick good▶Watch from this play
How scary each game got
Missouri lost at Mississippi State after being 83% to win; the closest win was at Kansas, down to 16%
Tap a game for its score and win chances.
Each bar runs from the lowest to the highest chance our model gave Missouri during that game; the thick mark is where it started. Numbers are the game week.
Stat leaders
2026 stat leaders · Missouri
through 8 games
2026 stat leaders · MissouriNicholas Rodriguez leads Missouri with 81 tackles through 8 games.
Roster
Roster
2026+17 more
Recruiting and the portal: top commits · who's gone and who's back
How they play
Missouri fields a strong explosive, big-play offense behind a strong defense, though it gives up the big play.
Percentile vs all FBS, based on this season's per-game production. Bar = where this team ranks — right is better.
Player percentiles
Missouri reads strongest in field position (O) (top 7%) and explosive plays (top 9%); the crux lives in explosive plays allowed, where Missouri sits at the 22nd percentile.
Offense · strengths lead
Defense · higher bar = harder to play against
Hidden math · special situations
Home-field advantage · 2018–present · FBS opponents
Missouri is worth +6.2 points more at home than on the road.
Top third of FBS, 85th percentile of 133 programs
75% at home, 40% away against FBS opponents since 2018 (38-13 home, 17-25 away). Interval ±4.0.
The stadium and how the home edge is measured
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge. The books use about 3. Per-team versions were tested and did not hold up (why). Against the closing line, Missouri has beaten the number by +3.4 more at home than away over 101 games. That is inside the ±5.8 that many games can resolve, so the results cannot tell this stadium from the flat number. That is the honest reading of nearly every FBS stadium.
Memorial Stadium seats 71,168 and has averaged 83% full (59,218, 33 games reported). Visitors cover a median 505 miles to get here since 2018 — 48th-longest of 135 FBS venues, inside the ordinary range. 11% of the 2026 roster (12 of 107 located players) grew up inside 100 miles of the stadium.
Edge = half the gap between average home margin and average road margin, FBS opponents only, non-neutral games since 2018; the interval is 95%. Market line: closing spread, seasons with lines on file. Trip length is straight-line miles from the visiting team's campus to the venue, measured across all 59 home games since 2018.
More in this tab
How they play
Usage splits
How the players get used
From the 2025 season's play-by-play
- Garbage timeAhmad Hardy does not see a usage spike in garbage time: his workload holds steady regardless of score, and he's also efficient in competitive snaps, the production isn't just garbage-time padding.
- UnderdogJoshua Manning produces at a notably lower rate when his team is an underdog than when favored: he fades when the pressure is on, and his per-target value drops too.
- Short yardageAhmad Hardy converts 3rd/4th-and-short at an elite rate.
- Deep threatDonovan Olugbode is a real deep-ball threat: a high share of his targets come on throws past the sticks.
- Deep threatKevin Coleman Jr. is a real deep-ball threat: a high share of his targets come on throws past the sticks.
Position battles
RB room
The carries are split. The job isn’t.
Jamal Roberts and Xai'Shaun Edwards split the carries (180/219 vs 39/219) -- but the job isn't split the same way.
WR/TE room
The targets are split. The job isn’t.
Cayden Lee (WR) and Brett Norfleet (TE) split the targets (71/86 vs 15/86) -- but the job isn't split the same way.
Scheme claims
Team identity · competitive snaps only
How Missouri actually scores
54th percentile quality, 49th percentile boom-dependency. Garbage time excluded from both axes — the same correction that changes the Q4 story below.
View all FBS teams as a table
| Team | Quality percentile | Boom-share percentile |
|---|---|---|
| Air Force | 76th | 3rd |
| Akron | 9th | 90th |
| Alabama | 82nd | 22nd |
| App State | 41st | 48th |
| Arizona | 91st | 16th |
| Arizona State | 20th | 83rd |
| Arkansas | 7th | 93rd |
| Arkansas State | 60th | 32nd |
| Army | 95th | 10th |
| Auburn | 34th | 59th |
| BYU | 83rd | 17th |
| Ball State | 32nd | 72nd |
| Baylor | 36th | 63rd |
| Boise State | 96th | 4th |
| Boston College | 20th | 80th |
| Buffalo | 8th | 88th |
| Central Michigan | 6th | 96th |
| Cincinnati | 88th | 15th |
| Clemson | 10th | 92nd |
| Coastal Carolina | 49th | 57th |
| Colorado | 15th | 86th |
| Colorado State | 88th | 30th |
| Delaware | 63rd | 40th |
| Duke | 74th | 8th |
| East Carolina | 24th | 77th |
| Eastern Michigan | 14th | 80th |
| Florida | 75th | 37th |
| Florida Atlantic | 72nd | 25th |
| Florida International | 2nd | 98th |
| Florida State | 64th | 44th |
| Fresno State | 56th | 52nd |
| Georgia | 92nd | 11th |
| Georgia Southern | 52nd | 40th |
| Georgia State | 77th | 36th |
| Georgia Tech | 30th | 70th |
| Hawai'i | 12th | 88th |
| Houston | 89th | 2nd |
| Illinois | 70th | 38th |
| Indiana | 85th | 18th |
| Iowa | 52nd | 53rd |
| Iowa State | 43rd | 62nd |
| Jacksonville State | 62nd | 41st |
| James Madison | 58th | 35th |
| Kansas | 28th | 66th |
| Kansas State | 48th | 44th |
| Kennesaw State | 23rd | 79th |
| Kentucky | 71st | 21st |
| LSU | 86th | 9th |
| Liberty | 78th | 29th |
| Louisiana | 27th | 69th |
| Louisiana Tech | 60th | 47th |
| Louisville | 94th | 19th |
| Marshall | 36th | 61st |
| Maryland | 17th | 85th |
| Massachusetts | 38th | 60th |
| Memphis | 87th | 20th |
| Miami | 100th | 0th |
| Miami (OH) | 68th | 31st |
| Michigan | 25th | 71st |
| Middle Tennessee | 37th | 60th |
| Minnesota | 4th | 95th |
| Mississippi State | 35th | 65th |
| Missouri | 54th | 49th |
| Missouri State | 40th | 64th |
| NC State | 69th | 28th |
| Navy | 57th | 51st |
| Nebraska | 59th | 32nd |
| Nevada | 1st | 99th |
| New Mexico | 39th | 68th |
| North Carolina | 48th | 45th |
| North Dakota State | 31st | 64th |
| North Texas | 99th | 1st |
| Northern Illinois | 12th | 89th |
| Northwestern | 93rd | 6th |
| Notre Dame | 97th | 5th |
| Ohio | 67th | 43rd |
| Ohio State | 79th | 23rd |
| Oklahoma State | 76th | 14th |
| Ole Miss | 80th | 8th |
| Oregon | 28th | 72nd |
| Oregon State | 92nd | 13th |
| Penn State | 47th | 48th |
| Pittsburgh | 44th | 50th |
| Purdue | 65th | 34th |
| Rice | 18th | 87th |
| Rutgers | 32nd | 76th |
| SMU | 81st | 16th |
| San Diego State | 5th | 94th |
| San José State | 13th | 84th |
| South Alabama | 64th | 27th |
| South Carolina | 55th | 54th |
| South Florida | 42nd | 56th |
| Southern Miss | 3rd | 97th |
| Stanford | 53rd | 55th |
| Syracuse | 24th | 74th |
| TCU | 21st | 75th |
| Temple | 56th | 56th |
| Tennessee | 45th | 42nd |
| Texas | 11th | 91st |
| Texas A&M | 16th | 78th |
| Texas State | 90th | 12th |
| Texas Tech | 50th | 46th |
| Toledo | 84th | 24th |
| Troy | 8th | 92nd |
| Tulane | 33rd | 73rd |
| Tulsa | 68th | 28th |
| UAB | 16th | 81st |
| UCF | 19th | 82nd |
| UCLA | 61st | 36th |
| UConn | 84th | 26th |
| UNLV | 44th | 67th |
| USC | 80th | 12th |
| UTSA | 72nd | 20th |
| Utah | 96th | 7th |
| Utah State | 0th | 100th |
| Vanderbilt | 26th | 76th |
| Virginia | 51st | 39th |
| Virginia Tech | 66th | 33rd |
| Wake Forest | 98th | 4th |
| Washington | 40th | 58th |
| West Virginia | 73rd | 24th |
| Western Kentucky | 4th | 96th |
| Western Michigan | 29th | 68th |
| Wisconsin | 22nd | 84th |
| Wyoming | 46th | 52nd |
Missouri’s 4th-quarter offense, before and after garbage time
Raw Q4 EPA/play ranks 70th percentile in FBS. Strip out snaps taken with a blowout margin and it drops to the 42nd — the correction is the finding, not a footnote.
Standard downs vs. passing downs
Does Missouri hold up once the down-and-distance turns against them?
34th percentile success on standard downs, 41st on passing downs — little dropoff between the two — a schedule-independent identity.
View all FBS teams as a table
| Team | Standard-downs percentile | Passing-downs percentile |
|---|---|---|
| Air Force | 98th | 23rd |
| Akron | 58th | 34th |
| Alabama | 77th | 57th |
| App State | 33rd | 49th |
| Arizona | 76th | 94th |
| Arizona State | 38th | 61st |
| Arkansas | 71st | 24th |
| Arkansas State | 85th | 59th |
| Army | 93rd | 58th |
| Auburn | 14th | 69th |
| BYU | 86th | 35th |
| Ball State | 31st | 52nd |
| Baylor | 15th | 46th |
| Boise State | 77th | 92nd |
| Boston College | 63rd | 28th |
| Bowling Green | 43rd | 21st |
| Buffalo | 9th | 11th |
| California | 11th | 20th |
| Central Michigan | 36th | 9th |
| Charlotte | 18th | 41st |
| Cincinnati | 68th | 83rd |
| Clemson | 7th | 39th |
| Coastal Carolina | 23rd | 64th |
| Colorado | 16th | 65th |
| Colorado State | 66th | 95th |
| Delaware | 59th | 64th |
| Duke | 21st | 67th |
| East Carolina | 37th | 19th |
| Eastern Michigan | 16th | 30th |
| Florida | 61st | 70th |
| Florida Atlantic | 67th | 87th |
| Florida International | 20th | 53rd |
| Florida State | 30th | 90th |
| Fresno State | 25th | 84th |
| Gardner-Webb | 5th | 23rd |
| Georgia | 98th | 89th |
| Georgia Southern | 60th | 71st |
| Georgia State | 68th | 66th |
| Georgia Tech | 53rd | 40th |
| Hawai'i | 48th | 29th |
| Houston | 87th | 99th |
| Illinois | 73rd | 91st |
| Indiana | 55th | 44th |
| Iowa | 79th | 13th |
| Iowa State | 18th | 31st |
| Jacksonville State | 82nd | 80th |
| James Madison | 45th | 77th |
| Kansas | 52nd | 18th |
| Kansas State | 64th | 68th |
| Kennesaw State | 61st | 16th |
| Kent State | 5th | 21st |
| Kentucky | 90th | 51st |
| LSU | 86th | 98th |
| Liberty | 93rd | 78th |
| Louisiana | 36th | 66th |
| Louisiana Tech | 26th | 79th |
| Louisville | 95th | 72nd |
| Maine | 0th | 86th |
| Marshall | 69th | 32nd |
| Maryland | 34th | 26th |
| Massachusetts | 35th | 38th |
| Memphis | 92nd | 93rd |
| Mercyhurst | 2nd | 34th |
| Miami | 99th | 95th |
| Miami (OH) | 50th | 43rd |
| Michigan | 10th | 89th |
| Michigan State | 23rd | 55th |
| Middle Tennessee | 27th | 64th |
| Minnesota | 32nd | 4th |
| Mississippi State | 66th | 59th |
| Missouri | 34th | 41st |
| Missouri State | 52nd | 30th |
| NC State | 62nd | 77th |
| Navy | 89th | 17th |
| Nebraska | 46th | 85th |
| Nevada | 28th | 27th |
| New Mexico | 55th | 48th |
| New Mexico State | 14th | 36th |
| Norfolk State | 7th | 0th |
| North Carolina | 89th | 73rd |
| North Dakota State | 30th | 45th |
| North Texas | 95th | 84th |
| Northern Illinois | 51st | 14th |
| Northwestern | 88th | 88th |
| Notre Dame | 100th | 43rd |
| Ohio | 82nd | 42nd |
| Ohio State | 84th | 80th |
| Oklahoma | 4th | 50th |
| Oklahoma State | 96th | 86th |
| Old Dominion | 1st | 36th |
| Ole Miss | 81st | 94th |
| Oregon | 39th | 26th |
| Oregon State | 97th | 70th |
| Penn State | 20th | 47th |
| Pittsburgh | 65th | 50th |
| Purdue | 57th | 82nd |
| Rice | 59th | 14th |
| Robert Morris | 2nd | 5th |
| Rutgers | 42nd | 81st |
| SMU | 91st | 82nd |
| Sacramento State | 13th | 6th |
| Sam Houston | 11th | 37th |
| San Diego State | 8th | 54th |
| San José State | 17th | 2nd |
| South Alabama | 44th | 74th |
| South Carolina | 70th | 56th |
| South Florida | 84th | 57th |
| Southern Miss | 48th | 7th |
| Stanford | 40th | 9th |
| Syracuse | 57th | 39th |
| TCU | 70th | 10th |
| Temple | 50th | 68th |
| Tennessee | 75th | 12th |
| Texas | 27th | 61st |
| Texas A&M | 46th | 55th |
| Texas State | 74th | 100th |
| Texas Tech | 64th | 76th |
| Toledo | 73rd | 52nd |
| Troy | 39th | 15th |
| Tulane | 12th | 8th |
| Tulsa | 49th | 7th |
| UAB | 24th | 62nd |
| UCF | 29th | 45th |
| UCLA | 80th | 60th |
| UConn | 72nd | 73rd |
| UL Monroe | 47th | 11th |
| UNLV | 41st | 19th |
| USC | 79th | 97th |
| UT Martin | 6th | 3rd |
| UTEP | 9th | 1st |
| UTSA | 91st | 33rd |
| Utah | 94th | 98th |
| Utah State | 3rd | 76th |
| Vanderbilt | 41st | 32nd |
| Virginia | 83rd | 2nd |
| Virginia Tech | 43rd | 91st |
| Wake Forest | 75th | 96th |
| Washington | 56th | 16th |
| Washington State | 19th | 5th |
| West Virginia | 54th | 75th |
| Western Kentucky | 22nd | 25th |
| Western Michigan | 32nd | 27th |
| Wisconsin | 25th | 22nd |
| Wyoming | 78th | 48th |
Missouri by half
1st-half offense ranks 49th percentile in FBS; 2nd-half, 78th — competitive snaps only, garbage time excluded from both halves.
How much of Missouri’s number is the schedule?
Raw EPA/play through week 10 is 0.18; 64th percentile once opponent strength is stripped out, it's 0.06. The widest gap came in week 2: 0.38 raw vs. 0.02 adjusted.
Tendency drift
How Missouri’s current staff calls plays, year over year
Pass defense by zone
What this team throws, and gives up, by depth.
On short throws (≤19 air yards), Missouri’s passing game completes a completion rate above the FBS mean (67.4% vs 67.0% league-wide, shrunk toward the mean for its 214-play sample) — mid-pack, 73 of 136 qualifying offenses.
On short throws (≤19 air yards), Missouri’s defense allows a completion rate below the FBS mean (64.5% vs 66.3% league-wide, shrunk toward the mean for its 214-play sample) — mid-pack, 26 of 137 qualifying defenses.
We won’t show a deep-ball (20+ air yards) leaderboard here, on either side of the ball: even a full season of charted plays gives most teams well under 30 deep attempts — too thin to tell a real tendency from noise, so we won’t guess. Same refusal for yards-after-catch allowed and where a team’s attempts land by zone: both measured and both came back statistically indistinguishable from season-to-season noise.
Havoc & trenches
Disruption, run-blocking, and down-and-distance efficiency.
Turnover luck
The bounces haven't gone their way on their own fumbles: 40% recovered, vs. ~52% expected.
2 of 5 own fumbles recovered themselves; 6 of 14 forced fumbles recovered, 2026 only.
Takeaways
Cashing in at a normal clip: 15% of disrupted passes intercepted, close to ~18% league-wide.
7 interceptions of 46 disrupted passes (39 deflected, 7 intercepted), 2026 only.
Penalties
The flags have favored them: 62 penalties drawn on opponents vs. 57 committed, 52 yards to the good.
522 penalty yards committed vs. 574 drawn on opponents, 2026 season total.
Ratings and comparisons
Ratings
Comparable teams
Most similar programs · Missouri
Most similar programs · MissouriReads like
Matched on how the programs are built — tier, prestige band, kind of fanbase, conference, voice and roster size — not on this season's stats. A calibration, not a prediction.
Historical echo
Missouri’s breakout has happened before — and 1 of the 4 closest programs couldn’t hold it.
Programs whose stature climbed in the same shape. The grey line is their run; the color is what came next for them.
An analogy on the shape of a program’s Zeitgeist stature arc — not a prediction. Interim calibration; matched among current FBS programs at a comparable level.
Weather
Memorial Stadium, Columbia, MO
Usual during the game around Nov 7: 53°, between 38° and 65° in about 7 in 10 games (33 games since 2016).
Road games since 2016: the middle game was 64°, and 8 in 10 ran between 48° and 77° (46 of 48 road games, at stadiums we cover).
What a usual Saturday feels like here, by kickoff time
Airport readings near each stadium during the game, not on the field. How we measure
Weather observations: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet at Iowa State University. Rain: NOAA MRMS radar and CoCoRaHS volunteer gauges (CC BY 4.0). Game data: CollegeFootballData.com.