cfb zeitgeistZeitgeist
OFFSEASON · SUMMER 2026 · COMMITMENT SEASON
Heisman / Players / Cayden Lee /Ole Miss

Cayden Lee

WR · Ole Miss · Jr · #19

Below the discourse floor — the honest stats-only state.

635 REC YDS · 44 REC · 3 REC TD

2026 TRANSFERTransferred Ole Miss → Missouri for 2026

Where He Ended Up · Transfer

Transferred to Missouri

2025Ole Miss
2026Missouri

WR · OLE MISS · SEC

Cayden Lee

  • 3
  • #19
  • 5-11 | 175 lb
  • Kennesaw, GA

CFB Zeitgeist Score

67

Solid starter in the position cohort. Carried by rec yards at the 77th percentile.

Heisman Heat

#2015

<1% win probability

Fan Belief

Awaiting

Player-specific FI not yet ingested. Falls back to team mood below.

Respect Gap

Awaiting

Coming online with player-level FI.

Reality Gap

Awaiting

Coming online with player-level FI.

ACCOLADE PROBABILITY

Heisman

<1%

TOP WR AWARD

Biletnikoff

CONSENSUS

All-American

Player Standing · 17 rungs

Tier 2 · Starter

R05 · Part-time starter

Part-time starter. Splitting first-team reps.

Not on team2-deepStarterRecognizedEliteApex

Development Trajectory · receiving yards

2023–2025
1142023
6352025

+457%

Up 457% from first season to most-recent.

Career Arc

HS
Recruit
★★★
#476 national
CFB
College
Ole Miss
2023–2025
NFL
NFL Draft
Not drafted (yet)

Identity & Role

The durable bio layer: position, size, hometown, and roster role.

PositionWR
Class3
Jersey19
Measurements5-11 | 175 lb
HometownKennesaw, GA
Primary teamOle Miss

Recruiting Pedigree

How big the prospect was before college, and whether the later career arc beat that expectation.

Top pedigree 3-star No. 476 recruit
Composite rating 0.8883 HighSchool
Signed with Ole Miss 2023
Origin Kennesaw Mountain Kennesaw, GA, USA
Class Profile Context
2023 3-star | 0.8883 No. 476 recruit | HighSchool | Ole Miss

Transfer Arc

Portal movement changes role, context, and perception. This keeps that path in one place.

Portal moves 1 Programs changed on file
Latest destination Missouri 2026
Transfer stars 4-star CFBD transfer rating context
Eligibility Immediate Jan 17, 2026
Season Move Context
2026 Ole Miss -> Missouri 4-star | 0.9000 | Immediate

Heisman Lens · 2024 Season · Final

Where the player landed at the end of the listed season — final nowcast rank, win/finalist/ballot probabilities, and the cleanest official Heisman placement on file.

HIGH CONFIDENCE· through week 16
Current nowcast#2015Latest modeled ballot order
Season forecast#1706Where the full season sim points
Win probability0.0%Chance to actually win the trophy
Finalist probability0.0%Chance to make the finalist tier
Ballot probability0.0%Chance to appear anywhere on a ballot
Best official finish--Best completed Heisman placement on file

Heisman Futures

Not yet listed on major futures markets.

No achievements unlocked yet this season.

Selector Grid · 2025

AP
FWAA
AFCA
WCFF
SN
SI

Selector recognition fills in once the major honors lists (AP, FWAA, AFCA, Walter Camp, Sporting News, SI) are scraped and ingested.

NIL · Recruiting · NFL Draft

Market value, pedigree & pro outcome

Recruit stars

★★★☆☆

to Ole Miss

Composite

0.8883

#476 national

Today’s Hot-Take

The Hot-Take engine fires when this player’s percentile profile crosses a defensible threshold (top 10% in a cohort, 100+ snap sample). When it’s quiet, the model is honoring its “must be defensible” rule.

Anti-Take

PENDING

The contrarian read fires when the rules-engine detects a stat that complicates the Hot-Take. Quiet here means the model hasn’t found a defensible counter yet — not that one doesn’t exist.

The Room on Cayden Lee

Fan sentiment ·

Belief Meter

50

Mixed Sentiment

Sample 5 mentions
Confidence LOW

Top Take

Trajectory

Cohort divergence mapbearishbullishheatedcalmOwn fans: 5 mentions · belief +0 · "SEC Media Days Shakeup: Coaches Flex Confidence, QBs Under Scrutiny Florida Gato"Own fans
  • Own fans · n=5

Rival Radar

How rival fanbases talk about Cayden Lee

No rival-bucket mentions in the current season.

2025 Signature · 2025 season

Yards per reception

14.4

yds

All FBS WRs, min 20 receptions

National rank #129 of 531
Percentile vs All FBS WRs, min 20 receptions 76th

Why it matters

#129 of 531 All FBS WRs at 14.4 yards per reception (44 catches).

Vs cohort

This player 14.4 (76th)

HIGH · n=44 cohort 531

  • Also strong
  • Receiving yards (total)#122 / 531
  • Receiving TDs#222 / 531

Signature Moment

Week 14 at Mississippi State — 77 ypr

Result W 38-19

The week the volume broke through — put up 77 yds at Mississippi State.

A 3-act season arc returns once this player has six or more games on the ledger.

Season Pace · Projection

Where the receiving totals stand

final
Through 15g
635Rec yards
44Receptions
3Rec TDs
Per game
42.3Rec yards
3Receptions
0Rec TDs
Final
635Rec yards
44Receptions
3Rec TDs

What made this player interesting

The fast read on the thing that makes this player more than a generic stat line.

Cayden Lee's story is about how role and output meet each other. For Ole Miss, the card already shows enough current-season production to explain why he is on the serious-player board, and the next layer is determining whether the profile is just very good or actually distinctive.

Current place #2015 0.0% win | 0.0% finalist
Role load 5.5% Overall usage share
Profile quirk All-purpose load The card should explain why this profile stands out

2025 Season · Final

Traditional stats first. Advanced context underneath.

Last season

WR season snapshot

2025 season snapshot | final

2025 season snapshot | finalData: CFBD player stats + local Heisman modelPeer context: same position + same level
Receptions 44 3 rec TD | #153/1110 (86th pct)
Receiving yards 635 14.4 per catch | #130/1107 (88th pct)
Scrimmage yards 635 Total offensive yardage | #130/1107 (88th pct)
Player identity What kind of player is this?

30-second read

What kind of player is this?

Target magnet against FBS receiving peers.

Target magnet

2025 Season · Final

2025 season snapshot | final

Receiving

REC
44 86th
YDS
635 88th
YPR
14.4 72nd
TD
3 82nd

Game Log · Week-by-week

2025 season · 15 games

Box score · CFBD
WkOppRECYDSAVGTDLONGNote
Wk 1W 63-7vs Georgia State2136.509
Wk 2W 30-23@ Kentucky188.008
Wk 3W 41-35vs Arkansas37525.0062
Wk 4W 45-10vs Tulane26030.0047
Wk 5W 24-19vs LSU47017.5132
Wk 7W 24-21vs Washington State35618.7135
Wk 8L 35-43@ Georgia177.007
Wk 9W 34-26@ Oklahoma36020.0031
Wk 10W 30-14vs South Carolina11010.0010
Wk 11W 49-0vs The Citadel25326.5131
Wk 12W 34-24vs Florida44812.0019
Wk 14W 38-19@ Mississippi State77711.0021Season-high 77 yds
BowlW 41-10vs Tulane2126.008
BowlW 39-34@ Georgia4194.8012
BowlL 27-31vs Miami56713.4023
Total4463514.4362
Season-by-season tables Career rows + per-season box score

Traditional history

Traditional Stats

Season rows up top, career context at the bottom.

Season rows Career row

Season context · Team result + system

2023Ole Miss11-2HC: Lane Kiffin · Run-leaning
2025Ole Miss13-2HC: Lane Kiffin · Balanced
SeasonTeam
2025Ole Miss4463514.43--
2023Ole Miss511422.82--
Career2 loaded seasons4974915.35--
Advanced layer Usage, value, and context

Advanced metrics second

Advanced Metrics

Usage, value, and opponent-adjusted context.

Usage Value Context
Pass share

The player's share of a team's passing-game involvement. It is the fastest way to see whether the receiver is a true focal point or more of a complementary piece.

Role share

A blended workload view that accounts for catches, designed touches, and any return-game involvement that shapes the overall profile.

Peer percentile

Every percentile is compared against players at the same position and level, so an FBS quarterback is judged against FBS quarterbacks, not the whole sport.

Traditional first

The top tables stick to the stats fans already know from broadcasts and box scores. Advanced context is pushed underneath instead of replacing the basics.

Usage 5.5% 11.4% pass-game share | #414/1137 (64th pct)
Return yards 0 0 return TD
Touchdowns 3 Across offense and returns | #206/1111 (82nd pct)
Open full stat explorer
0 metrics visible Showing all metrics
Group Metric Value Rank Pct Why it matters
Receiving Receptions 44 #153/1110 86th pct Volumevs FBS WR
Receiving Receiving yards 635 #130/1107 88th pct Volumevs FBS WR
Receiving Receiving TD 3 #206/1111 82nd pct Scoringvs FBS WR
Receiving Yards / catch 14.4 #309/1106 72nd pct Efficiencyvs FBS WR
Usage Pass share 11.4% #414/1137 64th pct Air-game usagevs FBS WR
Receiving Receiving LONG 62 #154/1105 86th pct Metricvs FBS WR
Usage Passing-down usage 8.4% #357/1137 69th pct Known-passing sharevs FBS WR
Usage 3rd-down usage 6.7% #483/1137 58th pct Money-down loadvs FBS WR
Usage 2nd-down usage 6.3% #368/1137 68th pct Middle-down loadvs FBS WR
Usage Role share 5.5% #423/1137 63rd pct Share of team offensevs FBS WR
Usage 1st-down usage 4.7% #461/1137 60th pct Early-down loadvs FBS WR
Usage Standard-down usage 4.5% #450/1137 61st pct Base-situation sharevs FBS WR
Usage Rush share 0.0% #391/1137 66th pct Ground-game usagevs FBS WR
Ball Security Fumbles lost 1 #131/302 57th pct Turnoversvs FBS WR

Player Standing

Universal 17-step ladder. Tier pills below; accolade streams nested.

AWAITING CLASSIFICATION

On-team2-deepStartingRecognizedEliteApex

AWAITING CLASSIFICATION · Rung None of 16

Why he’s here

Standing classification populates when honors, Heisman, and roster signals all align.

What moves him up

What moves him down

Accolade streams

StatusAwaiting tracker

Heisman model tracks the top FBS contenders weekly; this player hasn't entered the watch list yet.

Splits · Per-game

2025 season · 15 games

Home/Road · Win/Loss · Season halves

Home vs Road

REC/gYDS/gYPRTD/g
Home10g2.846.416.60.3
Road5g3.234.210.20.0

Win vs Loss

REC/gYDS/gYPRTD/g
Wins13g2.943.215.10.2
Losses2g3.037.010.20.0

First half vs Second half

REC/gYDS/gYPRTD/g
Weeks 1-79g2.942.214.40.2
Weeks 8+6g3.042.514.40.2

Pocket and defense-quality (clean vs. pressure) splits are coming soon.

Savant · Box-rate percentiles

Where this profile ranks vs the WR cohort

67Solid starter
6 metrics · season cumulative

Production sits in the middle of the position cohort across the board.

Rec yards#130 / 558 · 77th pct
635rece
Long catch#138 / 558 · 74th pct
62rece
Receptions#153 / 558 · 72nd pct
44rece
Yards / catch#167 / 558 · 70th pct
14.4rece
Rec TDs#205 / 558 · 57th pct
3rece
Fumbles lost#86 / 218 · 36th pct
1fumb

Percentiles versus same-position peers with enough snaps this season, based on box-score rates.

Advanced Savant · WR · 2024

Percentile Card

Advanced opponent-adjusted percentile bars are coming soon for this player.

P4G5All FBS
EPA / dropback
awaiting
CPOE
awaiting
Success rate
awaiting
Explosive rate (20+)
awaiting
aDOT
awaiting
Deep-ball accuracy
awaiting
Pressure-to-sack
awaiting
3rd-down EPA
awaiting
Red-zone TD rate
awaiting
Play-action EPA
awaiting
Scramble EPA
awaiting
Turnover-worthy play rate
awaiting

Advanced Savant

Opponent-adjusted advanced metrics with a cohort filter.

Advanced opponent-adjusted metrics are coming soon for this player. Selected cohort: P4.

Peer Comparator · Fingerprint match

Three closest profiles by box-rate percentile

3 peers · 6 metrics
Cayden LeeOle MissHarrison Wallace IIIOle Miss· 88% simNik McMillanBuffalo· 86% simQue'Sean BrownDuke· 85% sim
Rec yards
77
Lee
94
III
96
McMillan
91
Brown
Long catch
74
Lee
65
III
65
McMillan
83
Brown
Receptions
72
Lee
90
III
90
McMillan
92
Brown
Yards / catch
70
Lee
78
III
84
McMillan
56
Brown
Rec TDs
57
Lee
68
III
57
McMillan
78
Brown
Fumbles lost
36
Lee
36
III
36
Brown

Closest peers by overall box-score percentile profile at the same position.

Player DNA

The Possession Receiver

Reliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive.

WR

His 2025 production profile sits closest to Dom Henry’s 2025 season.

Dom Henry

82%match

Florida Atlantic · 2025

#2

Eric Rivers

Georgia Tech · 2025

81%
#3

Taylor Morin

Wake Forest · 2023

81%
#4

Jacob Cowing

UTEP · 2020

All-Conference USANFL Rd 4
76%
#5

Jha'Quan Jackson

Tulane · 2022

NFL Rd 6
81%

Matches Dom on

Total EPA (college ability)
Reception volume
Yards / reception

Differs from Dom on

Weight (lower)

Through 3 college seasons, his career arc tracks closest to Cary Angeline’s path through NC State.

Cary Angeline

98%match

NC State · 2020

#2

Jalen Coker

Holy Cross · 2023

95%
#3

Kevin Shaa

Liberty · 2021

93%
#4

Jake Herslow

Houston · 2021

90%
#5

Isiah Cox

Alabama A&M · 2022

90%

Matches Cary on

Yards per reception

As a junior, his production profile tracks closest to Jordan Faison's junior season at Notre Dame (2025).

Jordan Faison

80%match

Notre Dame · 2025

#2

Isaiah Sategna

Arkansas · 2024

76%
#3

Devaughn Cooper

Syracuse · 2022

76%
#4

Jayce Brown

Kansas State · 2025

75%
#5

Anthony Evans III

Mississippi State · 2025

74%

Matches Jordan on

Total EPA (college ability)
Reception volume
Weight

Supporting Cast · Scheme

Staff and system around the player

2025 season

Head Coach

Lane Kiffin

Pass share

48.2%

521 pass / 560 run

Plays / game

72.1

15 games

OL sack rate (allowed)

4.5%

330 dropbacks · PBP

Scheme: Balanced.

Coaching Lineage · 2023–2025

1 coach
2023
Lane Kiffin
Ole Miss
2025
Lane Kiffin
Ole Miss

Played his entire career under Lane Kiffin.

Bio · Recruiting · Transfer · Roster

Off-field context — switch tabs to drill into recruit profile, transfer arc, or roster timeline.

HometownKennesaw, GA
Height5'11"
Weight175 lb
Class3
PositionWR
Jersey19

Trophy Case · Detail

Every honor on the ledger, broken out by stream and selector.

Honors

No formal honors on the ledger yet

All-America, all-conference, player-of-the-week, watch-list, and postseason awards land here when they're earned. The absence is the signal: most players never collect formal honors, and that's its own kind of context.

Honors Timeline

Season-end distinction and week-by-week recognition on one timeline.

Season Honor Scope Team / Selector Context
No formal honors on the ledger yet. All-America, all-conference, weekly awards, watch lists, and postseason trophies land here when they’re earned.

Heisman By Year

Modeled rank and official finish by season.

Season Team Role Latest Model Forecast Win Finalist Official Finish Points Context
2024 Ole Miss WR3 #2015 #1706 0.0% 0.0% -- -- W16 snapshot | SEC
2023 Ole Miss WR3 #712 #616 0.0% 0.0% -- -- W19 snapshot | SEC

Roster Timeline

Team, conference, and class by season.

Season Team Conference Pos Class Bio
2025 Ole Miss SEC WR 3 No. 19 | 5-11 | 175 lb | Kennesaw, GA
2024 Ole Miss SEC WR 3 No. 19 | 5-11 | 175 lb | Kennesaw, GA
2023 Ole Miss SEC WR 3 No. 19 | 5-11 | 175 lb | Kennesaw, GA