Texas at Missouri
Texas (#10, 6‑2) at Missouri (#19, 6‑2) — Texas is favored by 2.5. The model gives Texas a 61% shot. Missouri’s offense is at the 33rd percentile on success rate; Texas’s defense is at the 94th.
How they got here
Last three games
Texas · 6-2
Rated 5th in our preseason ratings, 7th now.
2-1 in its last three, 2 over ranked or top-40 competition.
Last three games
Missouri · 6-2
Rated 38th in our preseason ratings, 29th now.
2-1 in its last three, one over ranked or top-40 competition.
Biggest mismatch: Missouri’s success rate against Texas, 61 points
Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.
Missouri’s success rate against Texas’s defense
Missouri offense, 33rd percentile · Texas defense, 94th
Texas’s rushing EPA against Missouri’s defense
Texas offense, 13th percentile · Missouri defense, 71st
Texas’s explosive plays against Missouri’s defense
Texas offense, 43rd percentile · Missouri defense, 23rd
What’s at stake
Make the playoff
Texas projected #4 seed
Win the conference
Win the title
CFP odds as of November 4, 2026
The series
Texas leads the series 17-4
21 meetings since 1901 · Texas won the last meeting
- 2017 · neutral siteTexas 33-16
- 2011Missouri 17-5
- 2009Texas 41-7
- 2008Texas 56-31
- 2005Texas 51-20
Face-off
What each fanbase carries into this one.
Texas
The chip · vs the national mediaEvery flicker of struggle reignites the punchline the program wore for a decade — 'Texas is back?' said with a smirk. The fanbase uses it on itself now, but it wants to bury it for good.
What this game touches
The 2025 letdown — and the decade that made it terrifying. Back-to-back CFP semifinals had Texas all the way back; then Arch Manning's first full year as starter ended outside the Playoff in 2025 (a New Year's bowl win over Michigan the consolation) — a flicker of the decade-long collapse the program spent years clawing out of.
Missouri
The chip · vs the national mediaFans remember every analyst who called the SEC jump a mistake in 2012, and they note that even after two division titles and three top-15 finishes, the previews still treat Missouri as the league's afterthought.
What this game touches
Five yards from the title game. The 2007 team rose to No. 1 in the BCS before losing the Big 12 Championship to Oklahoma — the closest Missouri has come to playing for it all, and the standing definition of the program's almost.
Best players
Texas
- Jelani McDonald (DB) · 63 tackles
- Rasheem Biles (LB) · 61 tackles
- Justin Cryer (LB) · 46 tackles
Missouri
- Nicholas Rodriguez (LB) · 81 tackles
- Jamal Roberts (RB) · 1,005 rushing yards — Heisman odds: 63rd (+25000)
- Santana Banner (S) · 66 tackles
What to watch
Leading passer and rusher so far this season. Texas: Arch Manning (1,730 passing yards); Missouri: Jamal Roberts (1,005 rushing yards).
The total has moved down 7.0 points since opening (49.5 → 42.5): books now expect fewer combined points.
The betting line, and the fans
Texas fans are feeling it less than most fanbases this week (32nd percentile among FBS fanbases), and the other side is no happier.
Texas favored by 2.5 · Total 42.5
Texas by 2.5: where a favorite like this usually runs
Half of games8 in 10 games
Texas’s chance through the game, if this goes like the 305 games since 2025 with a favorite of under 3.5 points.
Weather at kickoff
Typical at Memorial Stadium: kickoff time makes little difference, scores run 86 to 90
Texas at Missouri · Saturday, Nov. 7 · noon ET · Memorial Stadium.
Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.
If it kicked off at
Typical at Memorial Stadium: noon Saturdays score 88, 3:30 pm 86, 7:30 pm 90.
- noon: 88, Mixed
- 3:30 pm: 86, Mixed
- 7:30 pm: 90, Comfortable
Typical weather score at each kickoff time.
Typical means the average of regular-season Saturdays at this stadium, 2018 to 2025. It is not a forecast for this game.
Home field
Missouri is worth +6.2 points (±4.0) more at home than on the road since 2018 — top third of FBS, 85th percentile.
75% at home, 40% on the road against FBS opponents (38-13 home, 17-25 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +3.4 at home vs. away over 101 games — inside the ±5.8 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
The visitors travel about 672 miles to get here.
Season profile
Week by week
Missouri
- Wk 4Lat Mississippi State24-31
- Wk 5Wvs Florida45-17
- Wk 6Wvs Texas A&M27-6
- Wk 7Lat Ole Miss3-31
- Wk 9Wat Arkansas34-10
Texas
- Wk 4Wat Tennessee20-17
- Wk 6Lat Oklahoma24-27
- Wk 7Lvs Florida24-27
- Wk 8Wvs Ole Miss34-27
- Wk 9Wvs Mississippi State31-3
Power rating by week
Texas is rated 4.6 points ahead as of week 10. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
The market
The spread moved 1 point toward Missouri.
The total fell 7 points.
Spread: +3.5 → +2.5 · Total: 49.5 → 42.5
The books’ cut: 4.1%, the margin built into the odds
Conference standings
Going into this game: place in the conference, then conference record.