Texas State
Texas #5
7:30 PM · DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium

Texas State at Texas (#5) — Texas (#5) is favored by 29.5.

What’s at stake

Make the CFP field

Texas · 70%70% → ▲72% if win70% → ▼57% if loss
Texas State · 7%7% → ▲12% if win7% → ▼6% if loss

Texas projected #7 seed

Win the conference

Texas · 15%15% → ▲15% if win15% → ▼14% if loss
Texas State · 18%18% → ▲19% if win18% → ▼17% if loss

Win it all

Texas · 7%7% → ▲7% if win7% → ▼6% if loss
Texas State · 0%0% → ▲0% if win0% → ▼0% if loss

CFP odds as of September 5, 2026

See this week’s biggest postseason implications ›

The series

Texas leads the series 1-0

1 meeting since 1930 · Texas won the last meeting

  • 1930Texas 36–0

Face-off

What each fanbase carries into this one.

Texas State

The chip · vs the national media

Fans have heard it for a decade — that Texas State is the newcomer that doesn't matter, the FBS arrival nobody respects. Getting the Pac-12 nod over older, bigger programs is the answer they wanted, and they want Kinne to prove San Marcos earned the upgrade.

What this game touches

The decade nobody noticed. Texas State reclassified to FBS in 2012 and then spent a decade as a losing-record afterthought with no bowl appearances, the kind of program outsiders used as a schedule-filler — a stretch only erased when GJ Kinne arrived in 2023 and immediately won.

Texas

The chip · vs the national media

Every flicker of struggle reignites the punchline the program wore for a decade — 'Texas is back?' said with a smirk. The fanbase uses it on itself now, but it wants to bury it for good.

What this game touches

The 2025 letdown — and the decade that made it terrifying. Back-to-back CFP semifinals had Texas all the way back; then Arch Manning's first full year as starter ended outside the Playoff in 2025 (a New Year's bowl win over Michigan the consolation) — a flicker of the decade-long collapse the program spent years clawing out of.

Best players

Texas

  • Jelani McDonald (DB) · 2025: 80 tackles
  • Arch Manning (QB) · 2025: 3,163 passing yards — Heisman odds: 3rd (+800)
  • Ryan Wingo (WR) · 2025: 834 receiving yards

Texas State

  • Treylin Payne (LB) · 2025: 101 tackles
  • Beau Sparks (WR) · 2025: 1,200 receiving yards
  • Chris Dawn Jr. (WR) · 2025: 1,007 receiving yards

The line, and the room

Texas State fans are feeling better about their season (50th percentile) than Texas fans are (36th) — even with Texas favored here.

  • Model · 85%
  • Market · 99%
  • Texas fans · 36th
  • Texas State fans · 50th

Home −29.5 · O/U 60

Conditions

95°F · 5 mph wind · Fair

Home-field advantage: Elite

Texas is 82% at home, 62% on the road since 2018 (41-9 home, 21-13 away).