The rest of the season
Three real tests left: Incarnate Word 2%, SE Louisiana 12%, East Texas A&M 37%
Win out <1% · expect 0.5 of 3 more wins
Nicholls's chance to win each game left, from our model: East Texas A&M 37%, Incarnate Word 2%, SE Louisiana 12%Bar height is our model’s chance in each game left. Dashed line: 50%.
LeadersPassing Ean Rodrigue 867 · Rushing Chase Richardson 350 · Receiving Jordan Smith 366 All player stats
Updated Wed Nov 4 · through week 9
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf | Top performers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aug 27 | Mississippi Valley State | W 44-10 | 1-0 | 0-0 | Pass Rodrigue 264 · Rush Hoffman 53 · Rec Donaldson 100 |
| 1 | Sep 5 | @Kansas State | L 3-71 129 | 1-1 | 0-0 | Pass Rodrigue 30 · Rush Hoffman 43 · Rec Smith 14 |
| 2 | Sep 12 | UT Rio Grande Valley | W 31-28 | 2-1 | 1-0 | Pass Rodrigue 235 · Rush Lee 47 · Rec Dufrene 99 |
| 3 | Sep 19 | @Sam Houston | L 0-59 134 | 2-2 | 1-0 | Pass Rodrigue 39 · Rush Hoffman 56 · Rec Smith 21 |
| 4 | Sep 26 | Lamar | L 18-49 | 2-3 | 1-1 | Pass Rodrigue 191 · Rush Lee 64 · Rec Smith 78 |
| 5 | Oct 3 | @Houston Christian | L 2-16 | 2-4 | 1-2 | Pass Rodrigue 102 · Rush Hoffman 70 · Rec Smith 122 |
| 6 | Bye week | |||||
| 7 | Oct 17 | Stephen F. Austin | L 0-56 | 2-5 | 1-3 | Pass Welch 82 · Rush Gales 30 · Rec Stewart 40 |
| 8 | Oct 24 | @Northwestern State | W 31-27 | 3-5 | 2-3 | Pass Richardson 151 · Rush Richardson 151 · Rec Stewart 72 |
| 9 | Oct 31 | @McNeese | L 3-16 | 3-6 | 2-4 | Pass Richardson 33 · Rush Gales 111 · Rec Babineaux 38 |
| 10 | Nov 7 | East Texas A&M | 4 pm ET37% to win | |||
| 11 | Nov 14 | @Incarnate Word | 3 pm ET2% to win | |||
| 12 | Nov 19 | SE Louisiana | 7 pm ET12% to win | |||
Win chances are our model for Nicholls, through 9 games. This week's game comes from the playoff simulation, later games from the rating model. They are estimates and move every week.
The small line beside each score is the team's win chance through the game, drawn on one scale for every game. The small number is total plays.
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Big plays (IsoPPP) | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31 | @McNeese | L 3-16 | — | — | — | −0.397 | 25.7% | 1.22 | Season-low EPA/play |
| Oct 24 | @Northwestern State | W 31-27 | — | — | — | +0.171 | 31.9% | 1.70 | Season-high EPA/play |
| Oct 17 | Stephen F. Austin | L 0-56 | — | — | — | −0.302 | 29.2% | 0.94 | Blowout loss |
| Oct 3 | @Houston Christian | L 2-16 | — | — | — | −0.246 | 33.3% | 1.22 | |
| Sep 26 | Lamar | L 18-49 | — | — | — | +0.019 | 35.6% | 1.35 | Blowout loss |
| Sep 19 | @Sam Houston | L 0-59 | 163 | 3 | 24:29 | −0.327 | 21.8% | 0.77 | Blowout loss |
| Sep 12 | UT Rio Grande Valley | W 31-28 | — | — | — | +0.019 | 34.6% | 1.41 | One-score win |
| Sep 5 | @Kansas State | L 3-71 | 122 | 1 | 26:17 | −0.276 | 23.0% | 1.39 | Defense's roughest night |
| Aug 27 | Mississippi Valley State | W 44-10 | — | — | — | +0.154 | 45.2% | 1.33 | Best success rate |
| Season average (9 games) | 142 | 2.0 | −0.132 | 31.2% | 1.26 | ||||
The games that decide the season
Recent form · last 10 games
3-7 over the last 10, and lost the last one.
Range of outcomes · Nicholls · 2026
Regular-season wins: chance of each total, from the game chances above
3 wins 54%; 4 wins 40%; 5 wins 5%Bars are the chance of each regular-season win total, from our model's chance in each game left, through 9 games. Paler bars are the outer 10% at each end. The closed row comes from the season-path projection, which also plays out conference title games and the FCS playoff.
More in this tab
What it is like to watch them2026 · 3-6
Measured from 9 games · ranks are among Southland teams the same season
Nicholls is 3-6 and hosts East Texas A&M next.
Nicholls is 3-6 and hosts East Texas A&M next.
Range of outcomes · Nicholls · 2026