The rest of the season
Three real tests left: Alabama A&M 1%, Jackson State 2%, Florida A&M 16%
Win out <1% · expect 0.2 of 3 more wins
Mississippi Valley State's chance to win each game left, from our model: Jackson State 2%, Florida A&M 16%, Alabama A&M 1%Bar height is our model’s chance in each game left. Dashed line: 50%.
LeadersPassing Josh Brown 1,300 · Rushing Josh Brown 403 · Receiving Dayvian Bluitt 492 All player stats
Updated Wed Nov 4 · through week 9
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf | Top performers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aug 27 | @Nicholls | L 10-44 | 0-1 | 0-0 | Pass Brown 44 · Rush Brown 62 · Rec Buggs 35 |
| 1 | Sep 5 | @Sacramento State | L 0-52 123 | 0-2 | 0-0 | Pass Davis 24 · Rush Ray 36 · Rec Hampton 18 |
| 2 | Sep 12 | Lincoln (PA) (N) | W 31-20 | 1-2 | 0-0 | Pass Brown 243 · Rush Brown 46 · Rec Bluitt 143 |
| 3 | Sep 19 | Delta State | L 6-21 | 1-3 | 0-0 | Pass Brown 105 · Rush James 34 · Rec Bluitt 52 |
| 4 | Sep 26 | @Alabama State | L 15-41 | 1-4 | 0-1 | Pass Brown 110 · Rush Brownlow 77 · Rec Brownlow 53 |
| 5 | Oct 3 | Prairie View A&M | W 28-27 | 2-4 | 1-1 | Pass Brown 144 · Rush Brown 101 · Rec Brownlow 92 |
| 6 | Oct 10 | @Texas Southern | W 38-34 | 3-4 | 2-1 | Pass Brown 266 · Rush Brown 100 · Rec Bluitt 107 |
| 7 | Oct 17 | Bethune-Cookman | L 14-34 | 3-5 | 2-2 | Pass Brown 196 · Rush Taylor 87 · Rec Bluitt 133 |
| 8 | Bye week | |||||
| 9 | Oct 31 | Alcorn State | L 17-52 | 3-6 | 2-3 | Pass Brown 173 · Rush Brown 39 · Rec King 58 |
| 10 | Nov 7 | @Jackson State | 3 pm ET2% to win | |||
| 11 | Nov 14 | @Florida A&M | 3 pm ET16% to win | |||
| 12 | Nov 21 | Alabama A&M | 3 pm ET1% to win | |||
Win chances are our model for Mississippi Valley State, through 9 games. This week's game comes from the playoff simulation, later games from the rating model. They are estimates and move every week.
The small line beside each score is the team's win chance through the game, drawn on one scale for every game. The small number is total plays.
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Big plays (IsoPPP) | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31 | Alcorn State | L 17-52 | — | — | — | +0.003 | 36.9% | 1.08 | Defense's roughest night |
| Oct 17 | Bethune-Cookman | L 14-34 | — | — | — | −0.112 | 33.3% | 1.40 | |
| Oct 10 | @Texas Southern | W 38-34 | — | — | — | +0.122 | 35.4% | 1.62 | Most explosive |
| Oct 3 | Prairie View A&M | W 28-27 | — | — | — | +0.150 | 32.8% | 1.52 | Season-high EPA/play |
| Sep 26 | @Alabama State | L 15-41 | — | — | — | −0.340 | 27.0% | 1.46 | |
| Sep 19 | Delta State | L 6-21 | — | — | — | −0.368 | 23.5% | 1.03 | Season-low EPA/play |
| Sep 12 | Lincoln (PA) | W 31-20 | — | — | — | +0.094 | 40.0% | 1.27 | Best success rate |
| Sep 5 | @Sacramento State | L 0-52 | 147 | 1 | 26:52 | −0.161 | 18.9% | 1.22 | Blowout loss |
| Aug 27 | @Nicholls | L 10-44 | — | — | — | −0.193 | 33.3% | 0.43 | Blowout loss |
| Season average (9 games) | 147 | 1.0 | −0.089 | 31.2% | 1.22 | ||||
The games that decide the season
Recent form · last 10 games
4-6 over the last 10, and lost the last two.
Range of outcomes · Mississippi Valley State · 2026
Regular-season wins: chance of each total, from the game chances above
3 wins 81%; 4 wins 18%Bars are the chance of each regular-season win total, from our model's chance in each game left, through 9 games. Paler bars are the outer 10% at each end. The closed row comes from the season-path projection, which also plays out conference title games and the FCS playoff.
More in this tab
What it is like to watch them2026 · 3-6
Measured from 9 games · ranks are among SWAC teams the same season
Mississippi Valley State is 3-6 and plays at Jackson State next.
Mississippi Valley State is 3-6 and plays at Jackson State next.
Range of outcomes · Mississippi Valley State · 2026