The rest of the season
Two real tests left: Alcorn State 16%, Bethune-Cookman 33%
Win out 4% · expect 1.3 of 3 more wins
Florida A&M's chance to win each game left, from our model: Alcorn State 16%, Mississippi Valley State 84%, Bethune-Cookman 33%Bar height is our model’s chance in each game left. Dashed line: 50%.
LeadersPassing Armond Parker 1,507 · Rushing Jamal Hailey 283 · Receiving Corey Petty 371 All player stats
Updated Wed Nov 4 · through week 9
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf | Top performers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aug 29 | Albany State | W 20-7 | 1-0 | 0-0 | Pass Knowles 190 · Rush Hailey 54 · Rec Denmark 62 |
| 1 | Sep 6 | South Carolina State (N) | L 13-31 | 1-1 | 0-0 | Pass Knowles 94 · Rush Hailey 13 · Rec Jackson 69 |
| 2 | Sep 10 | @Miami | L 7-77 120 | 1-2 | 0-0 | Pass Parker 37 · Rush Fletcher 24 · Rec Gillespie 20 |
| 3 | Sep 19 | Tennessee State | L 26-29 | 1-3 | 0-0 | Pass Parker 267 · Rush Gillespie 47 · Rec Hailey 83 |
| 4 | Sep 26 | Alabama A&M | L 21-40 | 1-4 | 0-1 | Pass Parker 168 · Rush Gillespie 21 · Rec Jackson 89 |
| 5 | Bye week | |||||
| 6 | Oct 9 | @Alabama State | W 28-27 | 2-4 | 1-1 | Pass Parker 290 · Rush Parker 49 · Rec Burris 216 |
| 7 | Oct 17 | @Jackson State | L 17-27 | 2-5 | 1-2 | Pass Parker 163 · Rush Hailey 111 · Rec Wright IV 58 |
| 8 | Oct 24 | Arkansas-Pine Bluff | L 28-31 | 2-6 | 1-3 | Pass Parker 319 · Rush Parker 57 · Rec Jackson 101 |
| 9 | Oct 31 | Southern | L 14-42 | 2-7 | 1-4 | Pass Parker 263 · Rush Parker 27 · Rec Petty 118 |
| 10 | Nov 7 | @Alcorn State | 3 pm ET16% to win | |||
| 11 | Nov 14 | Mississippi Valley State | 3 pm ET84% to win | |||
| 12 | Nov 21 | Bethune-Cookman (N) | 3:30 pm ET33% to win | |||
Win chances are our model for Florida A&M, through 9 games. This week's game comes from the playoff simulation, later games from the rating model. They are estimates and move every week.
The small line beside each score is the team's win chance through the game, drawn on one scale for every game. The small number is total plays.
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Big plays (IsoPPP) | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31 | Southern | L 14-42 | — | — | — | −0.256 | 41.9% | 1.31 | Season-low EPA/play |
| Oct 24 | Arkansas-Pine Bluff | L 28-31 | — | — | — | +0.203 | 35.9% | 1.76 | Season-high EPA/play |
| Oct 17 | @Jackson State | L 17-27 | — | — | — | +0.109 | 39.3% | 1.36 | |
| Oct 9 | @Alabama State | W 28-27 | — | — | — | −0.018 | 30.2% | 2.53 | Most explosive |
| Sep 26 | Alabama A&M | L 21-40 | — | — | — | −0.212 | 24.6% | 1.55 | |
| Sep 19 | Tennessee State | L 26-29 | — | — | — | +0.056 | 42.6% | 1.39 | Best success rate |
| Sep 10 | @Miami | L 7-77 | 107 | 0 | 23:00 | −0.212 | 25.5% | 0.69 | Defense's roughest night |
| Sep 6 | South Carolina State | L 13-31 | — | — | — | −0.141 | 22.6% | 1.29 | |
| Aug 29 | Albany State | W 20-7 | — | — | — | −0.022 | 35.0% | 1.30 | Best defensive stand |
| Season average (9 games) | 107 | 0.0 | −0.055 | 33.1% | 1.46 | ||||
The games that decide the season
Recent form · last 10 games
2-8 over the last 10, and lost the last three.
Range of outcomes · Florida A&M · 2026
Regular-season wins: chance of each total, from the game chances above
2 wins 9%; 3 wins 54%; 4 wins 33%; 5 wins 4%Bars are the chance of each regular-season win total, from our model's chance in each game left, through 9 games. Paler bars are the outer 10% at each end. The closed row comes from the season-path projection, which also plays out conference title games and the FCS playoff.
More in this tab
What it is like to watch them2026 · 2-7
Measured from 9 games · ranks are among SWAC teams the same season
Florida A&M is 2-7 and plays at Alcorn State next.
Florida A&M is 2-7 and plays at Alcorn State next.
Range of outcomes · Florida A&M · 2026