Arkansas-Pine Bluff beats Florida A&M 31-28
Team pages: Arkansas-Pine Bluff · Florida A&M
Arkansas-Pine Bluff beat Florida A&M 31-28. Share this game
We had Arkansas-Pine Bluff favored. It won.
Next: Arkansas-Pine Bluff vs Bethune-Cookman, Sat Oct 31 · 3:00 PM ET
Next: Florida A&M vs Southern, Sat Oct 31 · 3:00 PM ET
How it swung
The turning point: Webber 2-yd TD run, Arkansas-Pine Bluff goes ahead 21-19 (Q3, 9:22). Arkansas-Pine Bluff went from 22% to 49% to win.
Before kickoff, our ratings gave Arkansas-Pine Bluff a 63% chance, and the closing betting line (Arkansas-Pine Bluff was a 3-point underdog) put it at 40%.
Down to a 12% chance in the second quarter, Arkansas-Pine Bluff still won.
Up to an 88% chance in the second quarter, Florida A&M still lost.
Arkansas-Pine Bluff 31-28 Florida A&M
Arkansas-Pine Bluff wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.Florida A&M 28-31 Arkansas-Pine BluffFlorida A&M lostMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.The two plays that swung it
- 1Q3 9:22Webber 2-yd TD run, Arkansas-Pine Bluff goes ahead 21-19Arkansas-Pine Bluff 22% → 49% (+27)
- 2Q3 8:05Schierholz 14-yd TD pass to Whitlock, Arkansas-Pine Bluff leads 28-19Arkansas-Pine Bluff 51% → 76% (+25)
The two plays that swung it
- 1Q3 9:22Webber 2-yd TD run, Arkansas-Pine Bluff goes ahead 21-19Florida A&M 78% → 51% (−27)
- 2Q3 8:05Schierholz 14-yd TD pass to Whitlock, Arkansas-Pine Bluff leads 28-19Florida A&M 49% → 24% (−25)
How to read this chart
Starts from the pregame line (Florida A&M -3), at 31% for Arkansas-Pine Bluff (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores.Every drive
Arkansas-Pine Bluff scored on 5 of its 11 drives; Florida A&M on 6 of its 12.
Arkansas-Pine Bluff’s drives are teal, Florida A&M’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.
From Florida A&M’s side
Florida A&M’s best moment: Parker 61-yd TD pass to Jackson, blocked, cuts it to 31-28 (Q4 3:19). It lifted Florida A&M’s win chance by 18 points.
The winner fell to 12%.
Box score
Arkansas-Pine Bluff 31, Florida A&M 28
Arkansas-Pine Bluff covered +3 by 6. The total, 59, went over 55.5.
Arkansas-Pine Bluff leaders
- Passing Jack Schierholz 8 of 12, 80 yds, 1 TD
- Rushing Jalen Williams 9 for 66 yds, 1 TD; Za'Marion Webber 16 for 60 yds, 1 TD
- Receiving Demetric Whitlock Jr. 4 for 74 yds, 1 TD; D'Avery Robinson 4 for 38 yds
Florida A&M leaders
- Passing Armond Parker 23 of 37, 319 yds, 2 TD
- Rushing Armond Parker 12 for 57 yds, 1 TD; Jamal Hailey 7 for 9 yds
- Receiving Kieren Jackson 2 for 101 yds, 1 TD; Corey Petty 7 for 85 yds, 1 TD
Before kickoff
Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.
Recent games
Last three games
Arkansas-Pine Bluff · 3-3
Rated 248th in our preseason ratings, 190th now, up 58 spots.
2-1 in its last three, including a 31-point win over Southern as a 3-point underdog.
W 41-35 vs Central State No. 358 of 668 teams
L 51-53 @ Alcorn State No. 173 of 668 teams
lost by 2 as an 8.5-point underdog
W 35-15 vs Morehouse No. 402 of 668 teams
Last three games
Florida A&M · 2-5
Rated 192nd in our preseason ratings, 206th now.
1-2 in its last three, including a 1-point win over Alabama State as a 14.5-point underdog.
L 26-29 vs Tennessee State No. 208 of 668 teams
lost by 3 as a 3-point favorite
L 13-31 vs South Carolina State No. 134 of 668 teams
lost by 18 as a 19.5-point underdog
W 20-7 vs Albany State No. 271 of 668 teams
Week by week
Florida A&M
- Wk 2Lat Miami7-77
- Wk 3Lvs Tennessee State26-29
- Wk 4Lvs Alabama A&M21-40
- Wk 6Wat Alabama State28-27
- Wk 7Lat Jackson State17-27
Arkansas-Pine Bluff
- Wk 1Lat Missouri14-54
- Wk 2Lat Alcorn State51-53
- Wk 3Wvs Central State41-35
- Wk 5Wat Southern41-10
- Wk 7Lvs Alabama State15-21
Power rating by week
Arkansas-Pine Bluff is rated 1.1 points ahead as of week 7. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
The series
Florida A&M leads the series 3-0
3 meetings since 2021 · Florida A&M has won the last 3
- 2025Florida A&M 31-28
- 2022Florida A&M 27-6
- 2021Florida A&M 37-7
Line, fans and home field
The betting line, and the fans
Our model and the betting line don’t fully agree on Florida A&M’s chances here.
Florida A&M favored by 3 · Total 55.5
How games like this usually go
Florida A&M by 3: the game against the usual path
Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game
The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 286 games since 2025 with a favorite of under 3.5 points.
The market
The books’ cut: 5.5%, the margin built into the odds
Home field
Home-field advantage: Bottom third of FBS.
0% at home, 0% on the road against FBS opponents (0-0 home, 0-9 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +0.2 at home vs. away over 44 games — inside the ±7.4 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
The visitors travel about 523 miles to get here.
Where next
Conference standings
Going into this game: place in the conference, then conference record.
- Florida A&M9th1-2
- Arkansas-Pine Bluff10th1-2