The rest of the season
Two real tests left: Jackson State 48%, Prairie View A&M 62%
Win out 22% · expect 2.8 of 4 more wins
Alabama State's chance to win each game left, from our model: Texas Southern 78%, Jackson State 48%, Prairie View A&M 62%, Tuskegee 94%Bar height is our model’s chance in each game left. Dashed line: 50%.
LeadersPassing Aaron Frye 600 · Rushing Jamarie Hostzclaw 424 · Receiving Randall King 292 All player stats
Updated Wed Nov 4 · through week 9
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| Wk | Date | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf | Top performers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aug 29 | Southern (N) | W 30-17 | 1-0 | 1-0 | Pass Body 192 · Rush Hostzclaw 49 · Rec King 77 |
| 1 | Sep 5 | Lane College | W 34-0 | 2-0 | 1-0 | Pass Body 113 · Rush Hostzclaw 40 · Rec Austin 32 |
| 2 | Sep 12 | @Troy | L 17-34 126 | 2-1 | 1-0 | Pass Body 105 · Rush Hostzclaw 80 · Rec Pierre 27 |
| 3 | Bye week | |||||
| 4 | Sep 26 | Mississippi Valley State | W 41-15 | 3-1 | 2-0 | Pass Frye 137 · Rush Howard 60 · Rec King 72 |
| 5 | Oct 3 | @Bethune-Cookman | L 10-16 | 3-2 | 2-1 | Pass Frye 93 · Rush Hostzclaw 75 · Rec Tate 26 |
| 6 | Oct 9 | Florida A&M | L 27-28 | 3-3 | 2-2 | Pass Frye 107 · Rush Hostzclaw 128 · Rec Keye 34 |
| 7 | Oct 17 | @Arkansas-Pine Bluff | W 21-15 | 4-3 | 3-2 | Pass Frye 105 · Rush Howard 70 · Rec Keye 35 |
| 8 | Bye week | |||||
| 9 | Oct 31 | Alabama A&M (N) | L 28-31 | 4-4 | 3-3 | Pass Frye 158 · Rush Frye 90 · Rec King 88 |
| 10 | Nov 7 | @Texas Southern | 3 pm ET78% to win | |||
| 11 | Nov 14 | Jackson State | 3 pm ET48% to win | |||
| 12 | Nov 21 | Prairie View A&M | 3 pm ET62% to win | |||
| 13 | Nov 26 | Tuskegee | 3 pm ET | |||
Win chances are our model for Alabama State, through 8 games. This week's game comes from the playoff simulation, later games from the rating model. They are estimates and move every week.
The small line beside each score is the team's win chance through the game, drawn on one scale for every game. The small number is total plays.
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Big plays (IsoPPP) | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31 | Alabama A&M | L 28-31 | — | — | — | +0.025 | 50.0% | 1.05 | One-score loss |
| Oct 17 | @Arkansas-Pine Bluff | W 21-15 | — | — | — | +0.085 | 51.1% | 0.81 | Best success rate |
| Oct 9 | Florida A&M | L 27-28 | — | — | — | +0.050 | 50.7% | 0.82 | One-score loss |
| Oct 3 | @Bethune-Cookman | L 10-16 | — | — | — | −0.054 | 43.6% | 0.98 | One-score loss |
| Sep 26 | Mississippi Valley State | W 41-15 | — | — | — | −0.046 | 25.9% | 1.92 | Most explosive |
| Sep 12 | @Troy | L 17-34 | 221 | 1 | 27:05 | −0.233 | 24.6% | 1.38 | Season-low EPA/play |
| Sep 5 | Lane College | W 34-0 | — | — | — | +0.124 | 44.4% | 1.02 | Blowout win |
| Aug 29 | Southern | W 30-17 | — | — | — | +0.315 | 34.5% | 1.71 | Season-high EPA/play |
| Season average (8 games) | 221 | 1.0 | +0.033 | 40.6% | 1.21 | ||||
The games that decide the season
Recent form · last 10 games
6-4 over the last 10, and lost the last one.
Range of outcomes · Alabama State · 2026
Regular-season wins: chance of each total, from the game chances above
5 wins 6%; 6 wins 28%; 7 wins 45%; 8 wins 22%Bars are the chance of each regular-season win total, from our model's chance in each game left, through 8 games. Paler bars are the outer 10% at each end. The closed row comes from the season-path projection, which also plays out conference title games and the FCS playoff.
More in this tab
What it is like to watch them2026 · 4-4
Measured from 8 games · ranks are among SWAC teams the same season
Alabama State is 4-4 and plays at Texas Southern next.
Alabama State is 4-4 and plays at Texas Southern next.
Each link was checked against two outside sites.
Range of outcomes · Alabama State · 2026