Alabama A&M beats Alabama State 31-28

Team pages: Alabama State · Alabama A&M

Magic City Classic
Alabama State4-428
Alabama A&M7-231Final
Sat, Oct 31 · Legion Field, Birmingham, Ala. (neutral site) · Crowd 69,384ESPN+

Alabama A&M beat Alabama State 31-28.

We had Alabama A&M favored. It won.

Next: Alabama State at Texas Southern, Sat Nov 7 · 3:00 PM ET

Next: Alabama A&M at Prairie View A&M, Sat Nov 7 · 3:00 PM ET

How it swung

The turning point: Brown 2-yd run (Q4, 2:00). Alabama A&M went from 65% to 82% to win.

Before kickoff, our ratings gave Alabama A&M a 73% chance, and the closing betting line (Alabama A&M was a 7-point favorite) put it at 71%.

Favored the whole way: Alabama A&M never fell below 69%.

Alabama State never had better than a 30% chance.

TargetingQ2 1:15TargetingQ2 1:15
FinalAlabama A&M 31-28 Alabama StateAlabama A&M wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.
50%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q483% at halfAlabama A&MWon31-28ScoresTargetingTargeting
50%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q483% at halfAlabama A&MWon31-28ScoresTargetingTargeting
50%10%25%Q1Q2Q3Q417% at halfAlabama A&MLost28-31ScoresTargetingTargeting
50%10%25%Q1Q2Q3Q417% at halfAlabama A&MLost28-31ScoresTargetingTargeting

The two plays that swung it

  1. 1Q4 3:01Howard 3-yd TD run, cuts it to 31-28Alabama A&M 93% → 81% (−12)
  2. 2Q4 2:00Brown 2-yd runAlabama A&M 65% → 82% (+17)

The two plays that swung it

  1. 1Q4 3:01Howard 3-yd TD run, cuts it to 31-28Alabama State 7% → 19% (+12)
  2. 2Q4 2:00Brown 2-yd runAlabama State 35% → 18% (−17)
Alabama A&M’s chance to win after every play.
How to read this chartStarts from the pregame line (Alabama A&M -7), at 73% for Alabama A&M (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Outlined diamonds mark rare plays.

Every drive

Alabama A&M scored on 5 of its 11 drives; Alabama State on 4 of its 11.

Alabama A&M’s drives are teal, Alabama State’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

own goalgoal lineQ1Alabama State: Punt, from 75 yards out to 46PuntAlabama A&M: Touchdown, from 94 yards out to 0TouchdownAlabama State: Punt, from 61 yards out to 59PuntAlabama A&M: Touchdown, from 88 yards out to 0TouchdownQ2Alabama State: Interception, from 81 yards out to 64InterceptionAlabama A&M: Turned over on downs, from 3 yards out to 2DownsAlabama State: Touchdown, from 98 yards out to 0TouchdownAlabama A&M: Punt, from 73 yards out to 50PuntAlabama State: Missed field goal, from 80 yards out to 24Missed FGAlabama A&M: End of half, from 66 yards out to 70End of halfQ3Alabama State: Fumble, from 65 yards out to 54FumbleAlabama A&M: Field goal, from 61 yards out to 11Field goalAlabama State: Touchdown, from 71 yards out to 0TouchdownAlabama A&M: Touchdown, from 75 yards out to 0TouchdownQ4Alabama State: Touchdown, from 75 yards out to 0TouchdownAlabama A&M: Punt, from 75 yards out to 49PuntAlabama State: Punt, from 79 yards out to 72PuntAlabama A&M: Touchdown, from 65 yards out to 0TouchdownAlabama State: Touchdown, from 6 yards out to 0TouchdownAlabama A&M: Punt, from 75 yards out to 77PuntAlabama State: Turned over on downs, from 43 yards out to 41DownsAlabama A&M: End of game, from 59 yards out to 68End of game

From Alabama State’s side

Alabama State’s best moment: Howard 3-yd TD run, cuts it to 31-28 (Q4 3:01). It lifted Alabama State’s win chance by 12 points.

Box score

Alabama A&M 31, Alabama State 28

Alabama State covered +7 by 4. The total, 59, went over 56.5.

Alabama State leaders

  • Passing Aaron Frye 14 of 21, 158 yds, 1 INT
  • Rushing Aaron Frye 18 for 90 yds; Jareese Howard 12 for 46 yds, 3 TD
  • Receiving Randall King 5 for 88 yds; Kareem Keye 4 for 32 yds

Alabama A&M leaders

  • Passing Cornelious Brown 22 of 35, 216 yds, 2 TD
  • Rushing Kolton Nero 6 for 81 yds, 1 TD; Byron Perrilliat 13 for 68 yds
  • Receiving Jaylan Bean 5 for 64 yds, 1 TD; Imari Conley 6 for 59 yds, 1 TD

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last three games

Alabama State · 4-3

Rated 114th in our preseason ratings, 161st now.

1-2 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.

W 21-15 @ Arkansas-Pine Bluff No. 190 of 668 teams

won by 6 as a 3.5-point favorite

Alabama State won 21-15 at Arkansas-Pine Bluff. Chance to win started at 56%, low 31%, high better than 99%.

L 27-28 vs Florida A&M No. 220 of 668 teams

lost by 1 as a 14.5-point favorite

Alabama State lost 27-28 vs Florida A&M. Chance to win started at 88%, low under 1%, high 98%.

L 10-16 @ Bethune-Cookman No. 176 of 668 teams

lost by 6 as a 7-point favorite

Alabama State lost 10-16 at Bethune-Cookman. Chance to win started at 62%, low 2%, high 64%.

W 41-15 vs Mississippi Valley State No. 265 of 668 teams

won by 26 as a 34.5-point favorite

L 17-34 @ Troy No. 119 of 668 teams

lost by 17 as a 23.5-point underdog

Alabama State lost 17-34 at Troy. Chance to win started at 5%, low under 1%, high 9%.

W 34-0 vs Lane College No. 399 of 668 teams

Alabama State won 34-0 vs Lane College. Chance to win started at 57%, low 48%, high better than 99%.

W 30-17 vs Southern No. 217 of 668 teams

won by 13 as a 19.5-point underdog

Alabama State won 30-17 vs Southern. Chance to win started at 16%, low 5%, high 97%.

Last three games

Alabama A&M · 6-2

Rated 189th in our preseason ratings, 111th now, up 78 spots.

2-1 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.

W 61-31 vs Grambling No. 203 of 668 teams

won by 30 as a 7-point favorite

Alabama A&M won 61-31 vs Grambling. Chance to win started at 69%, low 31%, high better than 99%.

W 55-17 vs Bethune-Cookman No. 199 of 668 teams

won by 38 as a 4-point favorite

Alabama A&M won 55-17 vs Bethune-Cookman. Chance to win started at 64%, low 62%, high better than 99%.

L 28-31 @ Jackson State No. 123 of 668 teams

lost by 3 as a 10-point underdog

Alabama A&M lost 28-31 vs Jackson State. Chance to win started at 19%, low 3%, high 88%.

W 40-21 @ Florida A&M No. 235 of 668 teams

won by 19 as a 3-point favorite

Alabama A&M won 40-21 at Florida A&M. Chance to win started at 49%, low 29%, high better than 99%.

W 45-3 vs Bowie State No. 334 of 668 teams

Alabama A&M won 45-3 vs Bowie State. Chance to win started at 68%, low 68%, high better than 99%.

W 30-3 vs Tennessee State No. 213 of 668 teams

won by 27 as a 3.5-point underdog

Alabama A&M won 30-3 vs Tennessee State. Chance to win started at 47%, low 37%, high better than 99%.

W 38-23 vs Miles No. 307 of 668 teams

Alabama A&M won 38-23 vs Miles. Chance to win started at 57%, low 55%, high better than 99%.

L 24-31 @ Howard No. 235 of 668 teams

lost by 7 as a 1.5-point favorite

Week by week

Alabama A&M

Wk 3: W 45-3 vs Bowie State▲42Bowie St.Wk 4: W 40-21 at Florida A&M▲19F. A&MWk 5: L 28-31 at Jackson State▼3Jackson…Wk 6: W 55-17 vs Bethune-Cookman▲38Bethune-…Wk 7: W 61-31 vs Grambling▲30Grambling
  • Wk 3Wvs Bowie State45-3
  • Wk 4Wat Florida A&M40-21
  • Wk 5Lat Jackson State28-31
  • Wk 6Wvs Bethune-Cookman55-17
  • Wk 7Wvs Grambling61-31

Alabama State

Wk 2: L 17-34 at Troy▼17TroyWk 4: W 41-15 vs Mississippi Valley State▲26Mississi…Wk 5: L 10-16 at Bethune-Cookman▼6Bethune-…Wk 6: L 27-28 vs Florida A&M▼1F. A&MWk 7: W 21-15 at Arkansas-Pine Bluff▲6Arkansas…
  • Wk 2Lat Troy17-34
  • Wk 4Wvs Mississippi Valley State41-15
  • Wk 5Lat Bethune-Cookman10-16
  • Wk 6Lvs Florida A&M27-28
  • Wk 7Wat Arkansas-Pine Bluff21-15

Power rating by week

Alabama A&M is rated 3.5 points ahead as of week 8. Our power rating by week; higher is better.

-1-6-11Wk 0Wk 4Wk 8Alabama A&MAlabama State

The series

The series is tied 9-9

18 meetings since 2007 · Alabama State has won the last 4

Alabama A&M wonAlabama State won2007: Alabama A&M by 42008: Alabama A&M by 12009: Alabama A&M by 142010: Alabama State by 212011: Alabama A&M by 12012: Alabama State by 182013: Alabama State by 242014: Alabama A&M by 12015: Alabama State by 152016: Alabama A&M by 12017: Alabama State by 52018: Alabama A&M by 172019: Alabama A&M by 22021: Alabama A&M by 142022: Alabama State by 72023: Alabama State by 152024: Alabama State by 82025: Alabama State by 4320072025
  • 2025 · neutral siteAlabama State 56-13
  • 2024 · neutral siteAlabama State 27-19
  • 2023 · neutral siteAlabama State 31-16
  • 2022 · neutral siteAlabama State 24-17
  • 2021Alabama A&M 42-28

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

Our model and the betting line agree on Alabama A&M’s chances here.

50-50Model 73% · Line 71%Alabama StateAlabama A&M

Alabama A&M favored by 7 · Total 56.5

How games like this usually go

Alabama A&M by 7, and it went to form

50%90%Q1Q2Q3Q450%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 426 games since 2025 with a favorite of 3.5 to 7.5 points.

The market

The spread moved 1 point toward Alabama A&M.

opened −6now −7

The total fell 2 points.

opened 58.5now 56.5

Spread: −6 → −7 · Total: 58.5 → 56.5

The books’ cut: 5.4%, the margin built into the odds

Where next

Conference standings

Going into this game: place in the conference, then conference record.