Alabama State at Troy
Fan take
Troy fans
How they got here
Last two games
Alabama State · 2-0
Picked #115 in the preseason · now #152.
Two straight wins, capped by a 13-point win over Southern as a 19.5-point underdog.
W 34–0 vs Lane College #300 of 669
W 30–17 vs Southern #230 of 669
won by 13 as a 19.5-point underdog
Last three games · 2025 season
Troy · 8-6
Picked #114 in the preseason · now #130.
1-2 in its last three, capped by a 10-point win over Southern Miss as a 7-point underdog.
L 13–17 @ Jacksonville State #97 of 668
lost by 4 as a 3.5-point underdog
L 14–31 @ James MadisonTop 25 #14 of 668
lost by 17 as a 22.5-point underdog
W 28–18 @ Southern Miss #136 of 668
won by 10 as a 7-point underdog
W 31–19 vs Georgia State #203 of 668
won by 12 as a 10.5-point favorite
L 0–33 @ Old Dominion #34 of 668
lost by 33 as a 9.5-point underdog
L 10–23 vs Arkansas State #115 of 668
lost by 13 as a 8-point favorite
W 35–23 vs Louisiana #110 of 668
won by 12 as a 7-point favorite
W 37–14 @ UL Monroe #150 of 668
won by 23 as a 5.5-point favorite
W 48–41 @ Texas State #72 of 668
won by 7 as a 7.5-point underdog
W 31–24 vs South Alabama #115 of 668
won by 7 as a 2.5-point underdog
W 21–17 @ Buffalo #79 of 668
won by 4 as a 6.5-point underdog
L 7–28 vs MemphisTop 25 #56 of 668
lost by 21 as a 4.5-point underdog
L 16–27 @ ClemsonTop 25 #5 of 668
lost by 11 as a 29.5-point underdog
W 38–20 vs Nicholls #157 of 668
won by 18 as a 19.5-point favorite
What’s at stake
Alabama State
- Alabama State needs 5 more wins in the final 9 to reach bowl eligibility — 21% to get there with a win here, 0% with a loss.
- Alabama State is still shaking off a 17-point loss.
Troy
- Troy sits at 1% to make the CFP field — 1% with a win here, 0% with a loss.
- Troy hasn’t beaten a ranked opponent since 2017.
The series
Troy leads the series 3-0
3 meetings since 2006 · Troy has won the last 3
- 2026Troy 34–17
- 2017Troy 34–7
- 2006Troy 38–0
Best players
Troy
- TK Keyes (WR) · 167 receiving yards
- TJ Thompson (LB) · 11 tackles
- Jaheim Merriweather (RB) · 149 rushing yards
The line, and the room
The model and the market don’t fully agree on Troy’s chances here.
Home −23.5 · O/U 52.5
Conditions
81°F · 5 mph wind · Heavy Rain
Troy is worth +2.1 points (±3.9) more at home than on the road since 2018 — bottom third of FBS, 18th percentile.
62% at home, 51% on the road against FBS opponents (26–16 home, 25–24 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -5.8 at home vs. away over 76 games — inside the ±5.9 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
The visitors travel about 44 miles to get here.
Alabama State 17 – Troy 34
Called it — picked Troy to win.
Recent games
Troy
- Wk 1Wvs Sam Houston24-21
Alabama State
- Wk 1Wvs Southern30-17
- Wk 1Wvs Lane College34-0
Trajectory
Troy won 34-17, as picked pregame.