Sun Belt James Madison

Head coach Billy Napier · 1st season · 7-2 at James Madison

Record7-24-2 Sun Belt · 3rd
Conference title30%to win the Sun Belt
Nextat Southern MissThu Nov 5 · 8 pm ET · ESPN2

The rest of the season

Two real tests left: Southern Miss 54%, UConn 68%

Win out 32% · expect 2.1 of 3 more wins

James Madison's chance to win each game left, from our model: Southern Miss 54%, UConn 68%, Coastal Carolina 87%

Bar height is our model’s chance in each game left. Dashed line: 50%. Black tick: the betting line’s chance, shown where it differs from ours by 20 points or more.

Playoff chance went from 8% to 4%, peaking at 22% before a game

8%<1%W12%W15%W14%W16%W22%W10%L4%L

Our model, entering each game. The letter is the result of the game before it.

Standing3rd in the Sun Belt · 4-2 in conference play · All standings

LeadersPassing Camden Coleman 1,743 · Rushing George Pettaway 824 · Receiving Corey Scott 386 All player stats

The nationunrankedAP / Coaches
The model#50 CFB ZeitgeistPublic ratings: SP+ #29 (+10.9) · FPI #55
The marketJames Madison by 14.5Betting line at Southern Miss · our model 54% James Madison

Updated Wed Nov 4 · through week 9

Follow James Madison:athletics siteSun BeltX@jmusportsYouTube

Schedule and results

James Madison · 2026 schedule and results7-2Balanced slateAverage opponent win rate 48% · 0 opponents played so far are in the AP top 25 now.Our rank entering each game: #85 to #41
WkDateOur rankOpp rankLineOpponentResultRecordConfTop performers
1Sep 5#85#83−6✓ +1LibertyW 20-13 114James Madison won 20-13 vs Liberty. Chance to win started at 74%, low 67%, high better than 99%.1-00-0Pass Evans 61 · Rush Evans 69 · Rec Grevious 39
2Sep 12#86#245−46.5✓ +37.5WagnerW 87-3 129James Madison won 87-3 vs Wagner. Never in doubt.2-00-0Pass Coleman 171 · Rush Herman 132 · Rec Scott 52
3Sep 19#82#45+3✓ +16@San Diego StateW 26-13 151James Madison won 26-13 at San Diego State. Chance to win started at 35%, low 35%, high 99%.3-00-0Pass Coleman 246 · Rush Pettaway 82 · Rec Wisloski 90
4Sep 26#66#70−7✓ +19@Old DominionW 46-20 147James Madison won 46-20 at Old Dominion. Chance to win started at 64%, low 64%, high better than 99%.4-01-0Pass Coleman 243 · Rush Pettaway 110 · Rec Scott 57
5Oct 3#48#55−14.5✓ +13.5MarshallW 45-17 148James Madison won 45-17 vs Marshall. Chance to win started at 89%, low 75%, high better than 99%.5-02-0Pass Coleman 263 · Rush Pettaway 206 · Rec Scott 104
6Oct 10#39#93−7✗ −4@Georgia SouthernW 27-24 142James Madison won 27-24 at Georgia Southern. Chance to win started at 61%, low 33%, high 98%. Firestorm6-03-0Pass Coleman 171 · Rush Pettaway 151 · Rec Keller 108
7Oct 17#37#89−7.5✓ +19.5Georgia StateW 49-22 134James Madison won 49-22 vs Georgia State. Chance to win started at 77%, low 76%, high better than 99%.7-04-0Pass Coleman 185 · Rush Pettaway 119 · Rec Keller 54
8Oct 22#37#119−12.5✗ −15.5@App StateL 31-34 151James Madison lost 31-34 at App State. Chance to win started at 78%, low under 1%, high 94%. Roaring7-14-1Pass Coleman 232 · Rush Pettaway 57 · Rec Wisloski 84
9Oct 29#41#131−17.5✗ −20.5TroyL 21-24 153James Madison lost 21-24 vs Troy. Chance to win started at 92%, low under 1%, high 99%.7-24-2Pass Coleman 175 · Rush Cromwell 135 · Rec Scott 68
10Nov 5#47#122−14.5@Southern Miss8 pm ET · ESPN254% to win
11Nov 14#50#87@UConn12 pm ET · CBS Sports Network68% to win
12Bye week
13Nov 28Coastal Carolinatime TBA87% to win
How to read this table

Win chances are our model for James Madison, through 9 games. This week's game comes from the playoff simulation, later games from the rating model. They are estimates and move every week.

The small line beside each score is the team's win chance through the game, drawn on one scale for every game. The small number is total plays.

Line is the closing point spread for James Madison: a minus number means favored. A green check means the team covered it, by the number beside it. A red cross means it fell short by that much.

Advanced box score (EPA, success rate, big plays)▼
DateOppResultYdsTOTOPEPA/playSuccess%Big plays (IsoPPP)Note
Oct 29TroyL 21-24408527:25-0.18135.1%1.31Season-low EPA/play
Oct 22@App StateL 31-34423126:50+0.13239.5%1.32One-score loss
Oct 17Georgia StateW 49-22515129:51+0.29245.7%1.29
Oct 10@Georgia SouthernW 27-24438031:17+0.11541.0%1.31One-score win
Oct 3MarshallW 45-17573128:05+0.46654.5%1.23Defense's roughest night
Sep 26@Old DominionW 46-20405133:06+0.14440.7%1.17
Sep 19@San Diego StateW 26-13417130:19+0.17345.3%1.09
Sep 12WagnerW 87-3588122:36+0.63866.7%1.36Season-high EPA/play
Sep 5LibertyW 20-13291022:43+0.28038.0%1.25One-score win
Season average (9 games)4511.2+0.22945.2%1.26

James Madison's wildest games since 2013: comebacks, long shots, line misses

What’s ahead

The forecast
Season line10.5 winsover -200
Offense strongDefense elite

Season expectations

Win total1 bookOver/under 10.5
Sun Belt title#1 in market+219

Sportsbook odds · Oct 19. A number with a minus is the favorite: −130 means $130 wins $100. A plus is the underdog: +170 means $100 wins $170.

Today’s games across college football

What fans said

What fans said

L 21-24 vs Troy

James Madison fans
r/CFB
“Never in my life have I seen a 7-2 Coach more deserving of being fired than Billy Napier. Unbelievably enraging”
5d ago
r/CFB
“The Billy Napier experiment has run into a ditch and exploded in two games which is impressive.”
5d ago

L 31-34 at App State

James Madison fans
r/CFB
“It was fun beating expectations to start the year. 10-2 was the expectation I had and they’ve been awesome”
1w ago
r/CFB
“I’m sorry it’s 3rd and 20 on your own 20ish yard line and you ran a designed qb run…?”
1w ago

Real posts about each game (they name the opponent, a player or a play), chosen by community score · usernames not shown

The games that decide the season

The games that decide the season

Thu Nov 5Next: Southern Missat Southern Miss · on the road

Recent form · last 10 games

James Madison has won three of its last five.

7-3 over the last 10, and lost the last two.

Streak L2Last 5 · 3-2Last 10 · 7-3
I’ve said it before, this is the greatest place in the world to play football and it’s the greatest place in the world to coach football
Chesney · On32 days before James Madison's 2026 game against Troy

Playoff chance, day by day

4% now · ▼ 6 points in the last week

030%4%High 22%, Oct 21Aug 31Nov 4

Our simulation, 20,000 seasons a night, counted from the first full week of games.

Who to root for this week

Our simulation, 20,000 seasons with this one game forced each way. Only games that move the chance by two points or more are listed.

1 storyline developing

What James Madison’s coaching hire is really about

The open questioncan a new staff change the trajectory?

Coachingthis cyclenew

Napier, who led Florida to a 12-2 season and #19 AP ranking, inherits a 78% returning roster but faces the challenge of stabilizing a program that has had three coaches in five years.

What happenedBilly Napier took over as James Madison's head coach, replacing Bob Chesney.
The contextthe program's third head coach in five seasons

Statusfront page

How past storylines here turned out

ReplacedJames Madison's defensive coordinator spot turned over again the following season. See who's next →
AnsweredJames Madison's climb into dynasty-caliber territory held for another season.
AnsweredJames Madison's head-coaching hire held for another season.
Died downJames Madison's offensive coordinator change has died down — no clear next chapter yet.

Written by our model from the storyline records. It can get facts wrong.

Range of outcomes · James Madison · 2026

James Madison’s most likely regular season is 9-3. 98% of outcomes land from 8-4 to 10-2.

Regular-season wins: chance of each total, from the game chances above

7 wins 2%; 8 wins 19%; 9 wins 47%; 10 wins 32%
What a title game and a playoff run could add
Floor8-4No postseason.
Base10-3A bowl game.
Ceiling10-3A bowl game.

Bars are the chance of each regular-season win total, from our model's chance in each game left, through 9 games. Paler bars are the outer 10% at each end. The closed row comes from the season-path projection, which also plays out conference title games and the CFP.

How fans reactedreal posts and moves · tap to open
Following now · James Madison · Coaching

New coverage keeps arriving on Billy Napier at James Madison.

Billy Napier took over as James Madison's head coach, replacing Bob Chesney. It is the program's third head coach in five seasons. The coverage has moved from the hire itself to what followed it. The coverage is divided, and believers and skeptics both cite evidence.

fans are genuinely split doubt on the left, belief on the right · bigger dot, louder
Skeptics2 doubtful posts
Believers3 upbeat posts
Fans: 2% volume
Developing5 new this week
yesterdayJMU football notebook: Billy Napier addresses alma mater absence after Troy loss - Daily News-Record
2 days agoSun Belt title odds: +230 to +200 (the market’s chance is up 3.0 points)
4 days agoJames Madison fans were warned about Billy Napier, now the chickens have come home to roost · AOL.com
5 days agoSun Belt title odds: −120 to +260 (the market’s chance is down 26.8 points)
5 days agoJMU fans just got the Billy Napier experience Florida tried to warn them about · Hail Florida Hail
The cast who's driving the story · latest headline on each, attributed
Billy Napier Head coach
“JMU football notebook: Billy Napier addresses alma mater absence after Troy loss - Daily News-Record” — news · 2026-11-03
Bob Chesney Out
Sun Belt
“Billy Napier wins 19th straight Sun Belt game, James Madison now lone 7-0 FBS team” — Saturday Down South · 2026-10-18
Billy Napier Hype
“Billy Napier’s Hype on Decline as College Football Program Erases 14-Point Deficit to Pull Off Last-Second Upset Over JMU” — شبكة تواصل الإخبارية · 2026-10-30
Our read
Napier, who led Florida to a 12-2 season and #19 AP ranking, inherits a 78% returning roster but faces the challenge of stabilizing a program that has had three coaches in five years.
Source of record: Billy Napier took over as James Madison's head coach, replacing Bob Chesney — the program's third head coach in five seasons.
How fans are reacting · tap to expand
Believers bullishSkeptics dissentThe Boards quietThe Dominoes active
📣Believers3 bullish/hire items making the case that it's working.›

The 'this hire changes everything' takes: new-era believers making the case early.

“Billy Napier wins 19th straight Sun Belt game, James Madison now lone 7-0 FBS team”
Saturday Down South · Oct 18 · read ↗
“Billy Napier's history with Georgia Southern adds another layer to JMU football's road test”
The Daily Progress · Oct 8 · read ↗
“JMU football notebook: Billy Napier addresses alma mater absence after Troy loss - Daily News-Record”
news · Nov 3 · read ↗
🧐SkepticsLeading counter: “Billy Napier’s Hype on Decline as College Football Program…”.›

The 'show me the body of work' counter: resume gaps, scheme fits, and 'not that guy' reads.

“Billy Napier’s Hype on Decline as College Football Program Erases 14-Point Deficit to Pull Off Last-Second Upset Over JMU”
EssentiallySports · Oct 30 · read ↗
💬The boards2% of recent board volume, less than the headlines suggest.›

This event was in 60 of 3342 board posts (2%) over the last 60 days, a modest share of the conversation. Fan text is shown verbatim and credited to the community it came from; posters stay anonymous.

"Never in my life have I seen a 7-2 Coach more deserving of being fired than Billy Napier. Unbelievably enraging"
r/CFB ~ fan take
"Billy Napier is a football terrorist. Where were he and his coaching staff on 9/11? 0pts in the second half."
r/CFB ~ fan take

Board posters are a vocal, self-selected slice of the fanbase.

🔗The dominoes5 downstream moves tied to the hire.›

The second-order trail: commits, decommits, portal and staff knock-on from the hire.

“USC makes late move for James Madison DL commit Simeon Jones, official visit set”
On3 · Oct 26 · read ↗
“Billy Napier’s James Madison team commits 15-yard penalty prior to opening kickoff”
Saturday Down South · Sep 5 · read ↗

More in this tab

This week and this season

Worth watchingGames average 58 combined points, shootouts

What it is like to watch them2026 · 7-2

Game feel58shootoutscombined pts / game3rd highest-scoring of 14 in the Sun Belt
Heart rate2-2some dramain one-score games (4 of 9)8th most one-score games of 14 in the Sun Belt
Margin+20.2comfortableavg scoring margin1st best margin of 14 in the Sun Belt
Tempo70uptempooffensive plays / game4th fastest of 14 in the Sun Belt
Big plays1.26some popexplosiveness (IsoPPP)5th most explosive of 14 in the Sun Belt
Home crowd25,065avg attendance2nd biggest crowds of 14 in the Sun Belt

Measured from 9 games · ranks are among Sun Belt teams the same season

Team storyThe story of this team right now, in one line.
The weekly grind

James Madison is the program that climbed out of the FCS in 2022 and was in the College Football Playoff by 2025 — a rise so fast that Harrisonburg still says it out loud just to believe it.

Title DroughtSince 2019 · 7 yrs

The grievance is the rulebook: the same sport that kept JMU out of bowls on transition technicalities, then made the Dukes climb into the Playoff anyway. Fans remember exactly who told them to wait…

Read the full program story ↓
Game-day weatherKickoff-time weather at home, and the forecast in game week.

James Madison · Game-day weather

Typical at Bridgeforth Stadium: kickoff time makes little difference, scores run 90 to 93

  • noon: 93, Comfortable
  • 3:30 pm: 90, Comfortable
  • 7:30 pm: 90, Comfortable

Typical weather score at each kickoff time.

Tap a dot to read it.

At kickoff, regular-season Saturdays, 2018 to 2025: 106 at noon, 105 at 3:30 pm, 103 at 7:30 pm. Typical means the average of those Saturdays. It is not a forecast.

Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.

Game dayOffense: Strong, defense: Elite
The experience

James Madison is the FBS newcomer whose 2004 + 2016 + 2019 FCS national titles + 2022 FBS reclassification + 2023 11-2 Sun Belt championship game define the most-recent G5 ascent story.

Offense: StrongDefense: Elite
Open questionsThe unresolved questions this season keeps asking.

The story

Read the James Madison story →
Program ledgerEvery dated move on this program's record, newest first.

The program ledger

since 2025
  • 2026Hired Billy Napier
  • 2025 · Wk 15Entered the CFP rankingsWeek 14 · Won 59-10 at Coastal Carolinaat No. 25
  • 2025 · Wk 12Entered the AP Top 25Week 11 · Won 35-23 at Marshallat No. 24
  • 2025Bob Chesney departs21-6

Roster and recruiting

Roster8% of production back, talent #101

Roster reload: James Madison

2026 snapshot, Nov 4
Returning Production8%Low continuity / heavy reload
Talent Composite#101 nationally247 composite 588.3
Portal Additions37Primary repair: OT
Portal Losses31Primary pressure: IOL
Draft Loss0No NFL Draft departures recorded
Recruiting Reload#80Depth class
EDGEin 5 - Ernest Willor Jr.3.60out 5 - Sahir West3.80Even
CBin 4 - Jayon Harvey3.60out 4 - Justin Eaglin3.60Upgrade
current room: 182 lbs avg (2025 roster)
WRin 5 - Jeremiah Harrison3.70out 2 - Landon Ellis3.60Need Filled
current room: 194 lbs avg (2025 roster)
OTin 5 - Kaedin Massey3.60out 2 - Joseph Simmons3.80Need Filled
IOLin 2 - Noel Portnjagin3.50out 4 - Riley Robell3.80Starter Risk
current room: 307 lbs avg (2025 roster)
LBin 3 - Nakian Jackson3.40out 3 - Drew Spinogatti3.50Upgrade
current room: 227 lbs avg (2025 roster)
Balanced Linebackeris steady in every phase without a signature trait
Third program
Full roster (109 players)
UNKKei'Trone Simpson, Lathan Croley, Rasheed Lovelace, Terrence Jones II
ATHNick Herman
CBDJ Kelly, Damier Minkah, Jamal Olford, KJ Wright, Kamden Jennings, LaRon Dues, Roddrey McWilliams, Trey Gibson
DBKJ Flowe
DLAmar Thomas, Chris Bispham, Chukwunedu Okeke, Cole Webster, Ernest Willor Jr., Grayson Gilmore, Jakolbi Wilson, Kells Bush, Kevin Roberts, Mychal Mcmullin, Turner Schmidt
EDGECory Simon, Kacey Gilliam, Mason Purham
GTyler Brown
LBDanny Royster, Gannon Weathersby, JT Hooten, JT Kouame-Yao, Jayden Studio, Josiah Perry, Lee Johnson, Nakian Jackson, Trashon Dye
LSHayden Ross, Mitchell Dietzel
OLDJ Fox, Daniel Michel, Deacon Rawls, Evan Bushong, Frankie Tinilau, Griffin Hart, JaKobe Campbell, Jack Harris, Jesse Sears, Jonah Smith, Josh Manecke, Kaedin Massey, Noel Portnjagin, Parker Cunningham, Sani Reed, Wyatt Maines, Zach Greenberg
PAndrew Bennett, Patrick Rea
PKBaylen Woodman, Morgan Suarez
QBArrington Maiden, Camden Coleman, Davi Belfort, JC Evans, Tanner Vibabul
RBGeorge Pettaway, Jackson Mccarter, Malachi Fannin-Render, Phoenix Donghia
SChase Regan, D'Kwan Thomas, George Lovelace, Jase Rhodes, Javis Mynatt, Jayon Harvey, Joshua Prince, Ken Willis, Kevin Kabasele, Seth Gathers, TJ McGill
TEBrian Hnat, Ethan Gurela, Max Roche, Ryder Post, Thatcher Miller, Thomas Guillemette
WRArrion Concepcion, Braeden Wisloski, Chase Miller, Chase Pensyl, Cole Keller, Corey Scott, Dylan Williams, Elijah Moss, Jayden Mines, Jeremiah Harrison, Kaleb Smith, Ke'Untae Mosley, Kylan Billiot, Micah Matthews, Michael Scott, Miles Halbert, Noah Grevious, Seth Cromwell, Trace Burney, Xavier McDonald, Za'Ron Collins, Zion Hudson
Top commits

Top 2 commits

2027 class
★★★☆☆
DJ Hunter
QB · Buford, GA
#988 national
★★★☆☆
Matthew Baer
QB · Avon, CT
#1775 national
Recruiting buzzWhat fans say about the incoming class right now.

r/cfb this year

[Postgame Thread] James Madison Defeats Appalachian State 58-10
385 upvotes · Nov 2025
[Game Thread] James Madison @ Appalachian State (7:00 PM ET)
77 upvotes · Oct 2026

Top community posts · last 12 months · r/cfb

Fans and ratings

Mood vs. historyFan mood is higher than 68% of FBS programs
→

Fan confidence in a typical range for this program right now

68th percentile among FBS programs

Fans vs. the lineThe betting market is more optimistic than fans
Fan vs. market↓
68th
Fan mood
(percentile among FBS)
10.5
Sportsbook win total
(95th among FBS)
Market 27pp more optimistic than fan mood
Win total consensus · 1 book
RivalsRival pulse: Old Dominion bearish

Rival pulse

Old Dominion
Bearish
-23
Royal Rivalry

Fan mood index · most recent r/CFB data

More

FollowThe team's own sites, its reporters and its podcasts.

Follow James Madison

Each link was checked against two outside sites.

From the booth

A recent episode that covers this team
This page may include content derived from public news sources, social media, and fan communities. We relay these sources as-is — we are not reporting them. Sources may be summarized or quoted imperfectly; for anything that matters, go look at the original source directly. The original source may also be wrong. Text written by our model says so in a line beneath it, and it can get facts wrong. All analysis is editorial opinion, not professional reporting. Data sources · About this site