South Alabama at Louisiana
Louisiana (5‑3) hosts South Alabama (4‑4). The market has Louisiana favored by 8.5. The model gives Louisiana a 69% shot. Louisiana’s offense is at the 53rd percentile on efficiency; South Alabama’s defense is at the 3rd.
How they got here
Last three games
South Alabama · 4-4
Rated 60th in our preseason ratings, 99th now.
1-2 in its last three, including a 7-point win over Arkansas State as a 3-point underdog.
Last three games
Louisiana · 5-3
Rated 35th in our preseason ratings, 40th now.
1-2 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.
Biggest mismatch: Louisiana’s rushing EPA against South Alabama, 59 points
Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.
Louisiana’s EPA/play against South Alabama’s defense
Louisiana offense, 53rd percentile · South Alabama defense, 3rd
Louisiana’s rushing EPA against South Alabama’s defense
Louisiana offense, 72nd percentile · South Alabama defense, 13th
South Alabama’s explosive plays against Louisiana’s defense
South Alabama offense, 80th percentile · Louisiana defense, 100th
What’s at stake
South Alabama
- South Alabama needs 2 more wins in the final 3 to reach bowl eligibility — 87% to get there with a win here, 51% with a loss.
- South Alabama hasn’t beaten a ranked opponent since 2016.
Louisiana
- Louisiana is 2 games back in Sun Belt with 3 left to make it up — 15% to win it with a win here, 2% with a loss.
- Louisiana is the Sun Belt program whose 2018-2021 Billy Napier 4-consecutive-Sun-Belt-championships + Cajun Field + Ragin' Cajuns identity define what Lafayette-Sun-Belt-football looks like.
The series
Louisiana leads the series 10-4
14 meetings since 2012 · Louisiana won the last meeting
- 2025Louisiana 31-22
- 2024South Alabama 24-22
- 2023Louisiana 33-20
- 2022South Alabama 20-17
- 2021Louisiana 20-18
Each line is Louisiana’s chance to win through that meeting. Louisiana is 2-1 in the meetings since 2018 that were still close in the fourth quarter.
Face-off
What each fanbase carries into this one.
South Alabama
The chip · vs big brotherJaguar fans live in the shadow of Alabama and Auburn, where the whole state's football identity already lives. They'll tell you South Alabama built a program from literally nothing in their lifetime, and that being the new team in Mobile beats being nobody's team at all.
What this game touches
The 2025 step back. Major Applewhite's first year (2024) ended 7-6 with a bowl win over Western Michigan in Montgomery. Year two fell to 4-8 (3-5 Sun Belt West), though the Jaguars won three of their last five — a stumble that put a young program's upward trajectory in question and turned up the heat on a still-new staff.
Louisiana
The chip · vs the national mediaFans point to four straight conference titles and a top-20 ranking and ask why the national conversation still files them under generic Sun Belt mid-pack — as if the best run any Sun Belt program ever stacked never happened.
What this game touches
The post-Napier slide. Billy Napier won four straight Sun Belt titles (2018-2021) and a #19 finish, then left for Florida. Michael Desormeaux, his hand-picked successor, slipped to 6-7 in 2025 — a losing record capped by a 20-13 loss to Delaware in the 68 Ventures Bowl — and Lafayette is asking whether the standard was ever the program's or only the coach's.
Best players
South Alabama
- Cole Blaylock (S) · 46 tackles
- Keenan Phillips (RB) · 576 rushing yards
- Jordon Williams (LB) · 38 tackles
Louisiana
- Jake St. Andre (LB) · 59 tackles
- Brent Gordon Jr. (CB) · 45 tackles
- Maurion Eleam (S) · 44 tackles
What to watch
Leading passer and rusher so far this season. South Alabama: Keenan Phillips (576 rushing yards); Louisiana: D'Wayne' Winfield (1,457 passing yards).
The spread has moved 3.0 points toward Louisiana since opening (−5.5 → −8.5).
The betting line, and the fans
Louisiana fans are feeling it more than most fanbases this week (93rd percentile among FBS fanbases), in line with the numbers.
Louisiana favored by 8.5 · Total 57.5
Louisiana by 8.5: where a favorite like this usually runs
Half of games8 in 10 games
Louisiana’s chance through the game, if this goes like the 450 games since 2025 with a favorite of 7.5 to 14.5 points.
Weather at kickoff
Typical at Cajun Field: 7:30 pm Saturdays score 95, noon Saturdays 78
South Alabama at Louisiana · Saturday, Nov. 7 · 5 pm ET · Cajun Field.
Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.
If it kicked off at
Typical at Cajun Field: noon Saturdays score 78, 3:30 pm 81, 7:30 pm 95.
- noon: 78, Mixed
- 3:30 pm: 81, Mixed
- 7:30 pm: 95, Comfortable
Typical weather score at each kickoff time.
Typical means the average of regular-season Saturdays at this stadium, 2018 to 2025. It is not a forecast for this game.
Home field
Louisiana is worth +4.3 points (±3.5) more at home than on the road since 2018 — middle of FBS, 54th percentile.
73% at home, 58% on the road against FBS opponents (32-12 home, 31-22 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -0.2 at home vs. away over 104 games — inside the ±5.5 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
The visitors travel about 232 miles to get here.
Season profile
Week by week
Louisiana
- Wk 4Wat Charlotte34-7
- Wk 5Wvs Arkansas State23-20
- Wk 6Lat Louisiana Tech31-32
- Wk 7Wvs Troy33-6
- Wk 8Lat Southern Miss31-35
South Alabama
- Wk 4Lat Kentucky21-45
- Wk 5Wvs UL Monroe52-35
- Wk 6Wat Arkansas State56-49
- Wk 8Lat Marshall13-20
- Wk 9Lvs Louisiana Tech20-35
Power rating by week
Louisiana is rated 7.0 points ahead as of week 10. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
The market
The spread moved 3 points toward Louisiana.
Spread: −5.5 → −8.5
The books’ cut: 4.2%, the margin built into the odds
Conference standings
Going into this game: place in the conference, then conference record.
- Louisiana11th2-2
- South Alabama6th2-2
Last meeting in our History pages
- South Alabama 20, Louisiana 17Oct 1, 2022