South Alabama beats Ohio 41-36

Team pages: Ohio · South Alabama

Ohio1-236
South Alabama2-141Final
Sat, Sep 19 · Hancock Whitney Stadium, Mobile, Ala. · Crowd 15,232ESPN+

South Alabama beat Ohio 41-36.

We had South Alabama favored. It won.

Next: Ohio beat Stonehill 35-7, Sat Sep 26

Next: South Alabama lost to Kentucky 45-21, Sat Sep 26

How it swung

Before kickoff, our ratings gave South Alabama a 63% chance, and the closing betting line (South Alabama was a 7-point favorite) put it at 71%.

Favored the whole way: South Alabama never fell below 75%.

Ohio never had better than a 24% chance.

FinalSouth Alabama 41-36 OhioSouth Alabama wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.
50%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q496% at halfSouth AlabamaWon41-36Scores
50%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q496% at halfSouth AlabamaWon41-36Scores
50%10%25%Q1Q2Q3Q44% at halfSouth AlabamaLowest 0%Lost36-41Scores
50%10%25%Q1Q2Q3Q44% at halfSouth AlabamaLowest 0%Lost36-41Scores

No single play moved the chance by 20 points.

No single play moved the chance by 20 points.

South Alabama’s chance to win after every play.
How to read this chartStarts from the pregame line (South Alabama -7), at 76% for South Alabama (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores.

Watch the plays

The bar and the arrow show South Alabama’s chance to win after each play; the logo is the team the play helped.

  1. Q1, 12:07Phillips 6-yd TD runSouth Alabama goes ahead 7-0Q1, 12:07 · South Alabama 7, Ohio 0▲6%South Alabama’s chance to win, 82% to 88%▲6%South Alabama’s chance to win, 82% to 88%Watch from this playSun Belt Conference
  2. Q1, 4:37Vezza 5-yd TD pass to Neerties it 7-7Q1, 4:37 · South Alabama 7, Ohio 77-7score after the play7-7score after the playWatch from this playSun Belt Conference
  3. Q1, 1:39Hollins 34-yd TD pass to GibbsSouth Alabama goes ahead 14-7Q1, 1:39 · South Alabama 14, Ohio 7▲2%South Alabama’s chance to win, 84% to 86%▲2%South Alabama’s chance to win, 84% to 86%Watch from this playSun Belt Conference
  4. Q2, 15:00Vezza intercepted by Moore at the USA41, returned 13 yardspersonal foul on OhioQ2, 15:00 · South Alabama 14, Ohio 714-7score after the play14-7score after the playWatch from this playSun Belt Conference
  5. Q2, 14:24Dunbar 32-yd TD runSouth Alabama leads 21-7Q2, 14:24 · South Alabama 21, Ohio 7▲3%South Alabama’s chance to win, 90% to 93%▲3%South Alabama’s chance to win, 90% to 93%Watch from this playSun Belt Conference
  6. Q3, 13:59Rosa 33-yd TD runcuts it to 24-14Q3, 13:59 · South Alabama 24, Ohio 14▼5%South Alabama’s chance to win, 96% to 91%▼5%South Alabama’s chance to win, 96% to 91%Watch from this playSun Belt Conference
  7. Q4, 8:21Dunbar 5-yd TD runSouth Alabama leads 38-21Q4, 8:21 · South Alabama 38, Ohio 21▲4%South Alabama’s chance to win, 95% to 99%▲4%South Alabama’s chance to win, 95% to 99%Watch from this playSun Belt Conference
  8. Q4, 5:20Davis 10-yd TD pass to Millercuts it to 38-29Q4, 5:20 · South Alabama 38, Ohio 2938-29score after the play38-29score after the playWatch from this playSun Belt Conference
  9. Q4, 0:00Davis 21-yd TD pass to Dorwartcuts it to 41-36Q4, 0:00 · South Alabama 41, Ohio 3641-36score after the play41-36score after the playWatch from this playSun Belt Conference

Every drive

South Alabama scored on 7 of its 10 drives; Ohio on 5 of its 11.

South Alabama’s drives are teal, Ohio’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

own goalgoal lineQ1South Alabama: Touchdown, from 75 yards out to 0TouchdownOhio: Touchdown, from 78 yards out to 0TouchdownSouth Alabama: Touchdown, from 75 yards out to 0TouchdownOhio: Interception, from 78 yards out to 64InterceptionQ2South Alabama: Touchdown, from 36 yards out to 0TouchdownOhio: Fumble, from 71 yards out to 0FumbleSouth Alabama: Field goal, from 80 yards out to 14Field goalOhio: End of half, from 88 yards out to 81End of halfQ3Ohio: Touchdown, from 41 yards out to 0TouchdownSouth Alabama: Punt, from 94 yards out to 86PuntOhio: Touchdown, from 25 yards out to 0TouchdownSouth Alabama: Touchdown, from 75 yards out to 0TouchdownOhio: Punt, from 75 yards out to 43PuntSouth Alabama: Punt, from 90 yards out to 80PuntOhio: Punt, from 53 yards out to 52PuntSouth Alabama: Touchdown, from 81 yards out to 0TouchdownQ4Ohio: Touchdown, from 63 yards out to 0TouchdownSouth Alabama: Punt, from 45 yards out to 40PuntOhio: Turned over on downs, from 90 yards out to 90DownsSouth Alabama: Field goal, from 10 yards out to 3Field goalOhio: Touchdown, from 70 yards out to 0Touchdown

What it cost

South Alabama’s chance to win the conference rose from 5% to 13%.

Win the conference

Ohio · lost6% → 6%6%
South Alabama · won5% → ▲13%5%▲ 13%

Before the game (September 18, 2026) → after this result, in our model.

Box score

South Alabama 41, Ohio 36

Ohio covered +7 by 2. The total, 77, went over 49.5.

OhioSouth AlabamaTotal yardsOhio 387South Alabama 458387458Passing yardsOhio 234South Alabama 192234192Rushing yardsOhio 153South Alabama 266153266First downsOhio 22South Alabama 212221TurnoversOhio 2South Alabama 020Time of possessionOhio 27:30South Alabama 32:3027:3032:30
Team totalsOhioSouth Alabama
Total yards387458
Passing21 of 31, 234 yds13 of 20, 192 yds
Rushing28 for 153 yds50 for 266 yds
First downs2221
Third down7 of 118 of 15
Fourth down0 of 12 of 2
Turnovers20
Penalties7 for 52 yds10 for 91 yds
Time of possession27:3032:30

Ohio leaders

  • Passing Levi Davis 9 of 15, 121 yds, 2 TD
  • Rushing Victor Rosa 13 for 78 yds, 1 TD; Matt Vezza 9 for 46 yds
  • Receiving Riley Neer 6 for 61 yds, 2 TD; Dom Dorwart 5 for 61 yds, 1 TD

South Alabama leaders

  • Passing Jared Hollins 13 of 20, 192 yds, 1 TD
  • Rushing Keenan Phillips 18 for 116 yds, 1 TD; PJ Martin 21 for 80 yds, 1 TD
  • Receiving Jeremiah Jones-Thomas 6 for 74 yds; Micah Woods 1 for 49 yds

No rain and calm

88° at kickoff · no rain recorded · wind 5 mph from the south-southwest, gusts to 13

Warmer than 9 in 10 of the 42 other games played at Hancock Whitney Stadium since 2016 (airport temperature during the game window). The usual here around this date is 75°, with about 7 in 10 games between 72° and 81°.

Game-day temperatures at Hancock Whitney Stadium

Win chance with rain, wind and thunder from the nearest airport, by game timeQ1Q2Q3Q4South Alabama favoredOhio favored100%Win chanceSouth AlabamaRaininches per 10 min0.1 inNo rain recordedWindmph, average and gusts20 mph40 mph
Win chance with rain, wind and thunder from the nearest airport, by game timeQ1Q2Q3Q4South Alabama favoredOhio favoredRain · inches per 10 min0.1 inNo rain recordedWind · miles per hour2040

Drag along the chart, or step through the game.

First quarter, 14:55 left6:03 p.m.
Ohio 0, South Alabama 0 · South Alabama 76% to win
no rain · wind 8 mph from the south-southwest · 88°
Martin 2-yd run
Where this weather comes fromMeasured at Mobile/bates Field, 3.2 miles away, and Mobile Downtown airport, 8.8 miles away. Rain is NOAA's radar-and-gauge estimate at the stadium and wind is an airport reading; neither is measured on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet; rain radar from NOAA MRMS, through Iowa State University. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last two games

Ohio · 1-1

Rated 50th in our preseason ratings, 54th now.

1-1 in its last two — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.

W 29-27 vs Jacksonville State #63 of 668

won by 2 as a 1.5-point favorite

L 21-49 @ Nebraska #37 of 668

lost by 28 as a 23.5-point underdog

Ohio lost 21-49 at Nebraska. Chance to win started at 7%, low under 1%, high 18%.

Last two games

South Alabama · 1-1

Rated 60th in our preseason ratings, 64th now.

1-1 in its last two — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.

L 24-28 @ Tulane #71 of 668

lost by 4 as a 9.5-point underdog

South Alabama lost 24-28 at Tulane. Chance to win started at 17%, low under 1%, high 66%.

W 39-14 vs SE Louisiana #138 of 668

won by 25 as a 13.5-point favorite

South Alabama won 39-14 vs SE Louisiana. Chance to win started at 90%, low 90%, high better than 99%.

Week by week

South Alabama

Wk 1: W 39-14 vs SE Louisiana▲25SE LouisianaWk 2: L 24-28 at Tulane▼4Tulane
  • Wk 1Wvs SE Louisiana39-14
  • Wk 2Lat Tulane24-28

Ohio

Wk 1: L 21-49 at Nebraska▼28NebraskaWk 2: W 29-27 vs Jacksonville State▲2Jacksonville State
  • Wk 1Lat Nebraska21-49
  • Wk 2Wvs Jacksonville State29-27

Power rating by week

Ohio is rated 1.4 points ahead as of week 2. Our power rating by week; higher is better.

421Wk 0Wk 1Wk 2South AlabamaOhio

Matchups

Biggest mismatch: Ohio’s rushing EPA against South Alabama, 75 points

Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.

  1. Ohio’s EPA/play against South Alabama’s defense

    64 pointsweakerstronger50th

    Ohio offense, 68th percentile · South Alabama defense, 4th

  2. Ohio’s rushing EPA against South Alabama’s defense

    75 pointsweakerstronger50th

    Ohio offense, 88th percentile · South Alabama defense, 13th

  3. South Alabama’s explosive plays against Ohio’s defense

    48 pointsweakerstronger50th

    South Alabama offense, 82nd percentile · Ohio defense, 34th

Season profile, all the rows

Season profile

OhioSouth Alabama
EPA/play, offense
Ohio · 68South Alabama · 67
EPA/play, defense
Ohio · 47South Alabama · 4
Success rate, offense
Ohio · 75South Alabama · 45
Success rate, defense
Ohio · 61South Alabama · 2
Explosive-play rate, offense
Ohio · 11South Alabama · 82
Explosive-play rate, defense
Ohio · 34South Alabama · 18
Rush EPA, offense
Ohio · 88South Alabama · 81
Rush EPA, defense
Ohio · 69South Alabama · 13
Pass EPA, offense
Ohio · 42South Alabama · 75
Pass EPA, defense
Ohio · 26South Alabama · 18

The series

Ohio leads the series 1-0

1 meeting since 2024 · Ohio won the last meeting

  • 2024Ohio 27-20South Alabama lost 20-27 at Ohio. Chance to win started at 52%, low 9%, high 85%.

Each line is South Alabama’s chance to win through that meeting.

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

South Alabama fans are feeling it more than most fanbases this week (92nd among FBS fanbases), in line with the numbers.

50-50Model 63% · Line 71%South Alabama fans · 92ndOhio fans · 70thOhioSouth Alabama

South Alabama favored by 7 · Total 49.5

How games like this usually go

South Alabama by 7, and it went to form

50%90%Q1Q2Q3Q450%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 377 games since 2025 with a favorite of 3.5 to 7.5 points.

The market

The spread moved 3.5 points toward South Alabama.

opened −3.5now −7

The total fell 4 points.

opened 53.5now 49.5

Spread: −3.5 → −7 · Total: 53.5 → 49.5

The books’ cut: 4.2%, the margin built into the odds

Weather at kickoff

Hot and dry. Feels like 87° at kickoff.

Ohio at South Alabama · Saturday, Sept. 19, 2026 · Hancock Whitney Stadium, Mobile

  • 87°feels like at kickoff
  • Dryno rain at kickoff
  • 83weather score, Mixed
  • 3rdbest of the day's 8 kickoff times

At kickoff, Sept. 19, 2026.

Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.

Later kickoff times scored higher that Saturday

Games in this time zone used 8 kickoff times that day, local time (kickoffs within 30 minutes of each other count as one). This game, ringed, was the third best of the day's eight kickoff times. At Hancock Whitney Stadium that day, a 6:30 pm or 7 pm kickoff would have scored 91, against 83 at 6 pm.

  • 11 am: 54, Rough
  • 11:45 am: 52, Rough
  • 1 pm: 51, Rough
  • 2:30 pm: 50, Rough
  • 3:30 pm: 56, Rough
  • 6 pm: 83, Mixed (this game)
  • 6:30 pm: 91, Comfortable
  • 7 pm: 91, Comfortable

Weather score at each kickoff time.

Tap a dot to read that kickoff time.

At kickoff, Sept. 19, 2026. Wind is not drawn here; gusts are in each score.

Home field

South Alabama is worth +3.5 points (±3.9) more at home than on the road since 2018 — middle of FBS, 39th percentile.

47% at home, 33% on the road against FBS opponents (20-23 home, 17-35 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +0.0 at home vs. away over 103 games — inside the ±6.0 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.

Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. The visitors travel about 688 miles to get here.

Where next