Ohio at South Alabama
Ohio (1‑1) at South Alabama (1‑1) — South Alabama is favored by 4.5. The model gives South Alabama a 63% shot.
How they got here
Last two games
Ohio · 1-1
Picked #50 in the preseason · now #54.
1-1 in its last two — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.
W 29–27 vs Jacksonville State #62 of 669
won by 2 as a 1.5-point favorite
L 21–49 @ Nebraska #37 of 669
lost by 28 as a 24-point underdog
Last two games
South Alabama · 1-1
Picked #60 in the preseason · now #64.
1-1 in its last two — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.
L 24–28 @ Tulane #71 of 669
lost by 4 as a 9.5-point underdog
W 39–14 vs SE Louisiana #137 of 669
won by 25 as a 14-point favorite
What’s at stake
Make the CFP field
Win the conference
Win it all
CFP odds as of September 15, 2026
The series
Ohio leads the series 1-0
1 meeting since 2024 · Ohio won the last meeting
- 2024Ohio 27–20
Face-off
What each fanbase carries into this one.
Ohio
The chipAthens doesn't carry a grudge so much as a quiet pride: the Bobcats keep getting their coaches stolen by bigger programs, and they keep reloading and winning bowls. The fanbase has stopped apologizing for being good in a league nobody watches.
What this game touches
The program that can't keep a coach. Tim Albin won Ohio its first MAC title since 1968 in 2024, then immediately left for Charlotte. His successor Brian Smith went 8-4 but was fired for cause in December 2025 amid a misconduct investigation. Defensive coordinator John Hauser, the third head coach in three seasons, won the Frisco Bowl on his first night running the team.
South Alabama
The chip · vs big brotherJaguar fans live in the shadow of Alabama and Auburn, where the whole state's football identity already lives. They'll tell you South Alabama built a program from literally nothing in their lifetime, and that being the new team in Mobile beats being nobody's team at all.
What this game touches
The 2025 step back. Major Applewhite's first year (2024) ended 7-6 with a bowl win over Western Michigan in Montgomery. Year two fell to 4-8 (3-5 Sun Belt West), though the Jaguars won three of their last five — a stumble that put a young program's upward trajectory in question and turned up the heat on a still-new staff.
Best players
Ohio
- Jack Fries (LB) · 19 tackles
- Michael Molnar (LB) · 17 tackles
- JT Haskins (S) · 17 tackles
South Alabama
- Brendan Jenkins (WR) · 197 receiving yards
- Cole Blaylock (S) · 12 tackles
- Bishop Davenport (QB) · 450 passing yards
The line, and the room
South Alabama fans are feeling it more than most fanbases this week (92nd percentile) — the mood matches the numbers.
Home −4.5 · O/U 51.5
Conditions
81°F · 6 mph wind · Fair
South Alabama is worth +3.2 points (±4.1) more at home than on the road since 2018 — middle of FBS, 33rd percentile.
44% at home, 33% on the road against FBS opponents (18–23 home, 16–33 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -1.7 at home vs. away over 75 games — inside the ±7.3 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. The visitors travel about 688 miles to get here.
Recent games
South Alabama
- Wk 1Wvs SE Louisiana39-14
- Wk 2Lat Tulane24-28
Ohio
- Wk 1Lat Nebraska21-49
- Wk 2Wvs Jacksonville State29-27
Trajectory
The market
Spread: −4 → −4.5 · Total: 52.5 → 51.5
Book hold: 3.4%