deep threatthis cycle~attributednew
Jeremy Scott is a real deep-ball threat -- a high share of his targets come on throws past the sticks.
our readbackground
South Alabama
1-1Latest
Sun Belt · Major Applewhite, year 3 (12-15) · Hancock Whitney Stadium · 25,450 · 15,087 avg in 2026
The nationunrankedAP / Coaches
The model#64 CFB ZeitgeistSP+ #106 (-11.4) · FPI #101
The marketSouth Alabama by 4.5vs Ohio · our model 63% South Alabama · a number, not a pick
LastL 24–28 at Tulane · Sat Sep 12 · Bishop Davenport 296 pass yds, 2 TD, 50 rush yds
Nextvs Ohio · Sat Sep 19 · 7 pm ET · Hancock Whitney Stadium · South Alabama by 4.5 · series 0-1 · Game preview
Updated Tue Sep 15 · through week 2
South Alabama · 2026 schedule & results1-1
| Wk | Date | Us | Opp | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 5 | #60 | #139 | -14✓ | SE Louisiana | W 39–14 123 | 1-0 | 0-0 |
| 2 | Sep 12 | #61 | #73 | +9.5✓ | @Tulane | L 24–28 123 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| 3 | Sep 19 | #64 | #54 | -4.5 | Ohio | |||
| 4 | Sep 26 | #64 | #96 | @Kentucky | ||||
| 5 | Oct 3 | UL Monroe | ||||||
| 6 | Oct 8 | @Arkansas State | ||||||
| 8 | Oct 20 | @Marshall | ||||||
| 9 | Oct 31 | Louisiana Tech | ||||||
| 10 | Nov 7 | @Louisiana | ||||||
| 11 | Nov 14 | Troy | ||||||
| 12 | Nov 21 | @Southern Miss | ||||||
| 13 | Nov 27 | App State |
Advanced box score (EPA, success rate, explosiveness)▼
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Explosive% | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 12 | @Tulane | L 24–28 | 478 | 0 | 37:40 | +0.338 | 45.9% | 133.6% | |
| Sep 5 | SE Louisiana | W 39–14 | 395 | 0 | 40:09 | +0.168 | 42.0% | 110.9% | |
| Season average (2 games) | 436 | 0.0 | +0.253 | 44.0% | 122.2% | ||||
Verdict Begins·Live
South Alabama is one of the youngest programs in the sport — its first football game was in 2009 — and it has spent fifteen years writing a history from a blank page on the Gulf Coast in Mobile.
Title DroughtSince 2009 · 17 yrs
Jaguar fans live in the shadow of Alabama and Auburn, where the whole state's football identity already lives. They'll tell you South Alabama built a program from literally nothing in their lifetime…
low signal
The season in chapters
Ahead
What fans said
South Alabama fans
Real posts from the day of the game, chosen by community score · usernames not shown
What it is like to watch them2025 · 4-8 · last season
Game feel57even gamescombined pts / game5th highest-scoring of 14 in the Sun Belt
Heart rate2-3some dramain one-score games (5 of 12)5th most one-score games of 14 in the Sun Belt
Margin-3.9competitiveavg scoring margin9th best margin of 14 in the Sun Belt
Tempo70uptempooffensive plays / game4th fastest of 14 in the Sun Belt
Big plays1.20grind it outexplosiveness (IsoPPP)12th most explosive of 14 in the Sun Belt
Home crowd17,272avg attendance12th biggest crowds of 14 in the Sun Belt
✓ measured from 12 games · ranks are among Sun Belt teams the same season
Recent form · last 10 games · incl. 2025
South Alabama has won three of its last five.
Mixed. 4-6 over the last 10, and lost the last one.
Streak L1Last 5 · 3-2Last 10 · 4-6
The forecast
Next Sep 19
vs Ohio · at home
SolidRun-heavy, ground-controlMethodical, ball-control
~ our read on style
Market outlook
Season expectations
CFP championship#112 in field+100000
Sun Belt title#9 in market+1300
Sportsbook consensus · best odds across multiple books · 2026-09-14
South Alabama · the story right now
4 storylines developing
What South Alabama's offseason is really about
the open questionwhere does it go from here?
closer2025 cycle~attributednew
Keenan Phillips: a closer signal screened this season.
our readbackground
program_outlook2025 cycle~readnew
South Alabama collapsed 53 spots in SP+ — the steepest drop in the Sun Belt this cycle, leaving Major Applewhite to prove 2023’s 7-6 isn’t an outlier under his watch.
what happenedSouth Alabama enters 2025 rated No. 114 in SP+ (-12.7), down 53 spots from 2024. ✓ fact
our readbackground
coordinatorsthis cycle✓ factnew
South Alabama: coordinator change reshaping a unit.
our readbackground
How past storylines here turned out
ReplacedSouth Alabama's defensive coordinator spot turned over again the following season. See who's next →
Died downSouth Alabama's offensive coordinator change has died down — no clear next chapter yet.
AnsweredSouth Alabama's head-coaching hire held for another season.
Outcome band · South Alabama · 2026
Outcome band · South Alabama · 2026South Alabama's most likely season is 8-5 — a bowl game. The floor is 5-7; the ceiling is 10-3.
Floor 5-7Ceiling 10-3Base 8-5
0 wins13 wins
Floor5-7No postseason.
Base8-5A bowl game.
Ceiling10-3A bowl game, 2 more wins.
Floor, base and ceiling come from the season-path projection, which plays out conference title games and the CFP — so a ceiling can run past 12 games.
How the room reacted
Following now · South Alabama · Season outlook Confidence
South Alabama's numbers fell sharply. The model sees a program under real pressure.
South Alabama enters 2025 rated No. 114 in SP+ (-12.7), down 53 spots from 2024. SP+ reflects three years of tape; a drop this steep is structural, not noise. The recovery window is open but the room knows it. The preview consensus leans in — but preseason ratings reward the recent past, not the season ahead.
near-unanimous belief
where the takes land · dot = how loud
DOUBTBELIEF
Believers5 bull takes
💬 fans: 13% volume
CFB Zeitgeist Read · our take
South Alabama collapsed 53 spots in SP+ — the steepest drop in the Sun Belt this cycle, leaving Major Applewhite to prove 2023’s 7-6 isn’t an outlier under his watch.
Next · what to watch
The non-obvious consequence of a steep fall isn't one bad year — it's the recruiting and portal feedback loop. A 'they're down' narrative accelerates the attrition that drove the decline. Watch whether the model holds through the first month of the schedule.
Source of record: South Alabama enters 2025 rated No. 114 in SP+ (-12.7), down 53 spots from 2024.
How each room is reacting — tap to expand
📣Believers5 bullish items -- the case it's working.›
The 'the projection is underselling us' read -- fans betting the season beats the preview number.
“Jaylin Lucas runs for 214 yards, Tulane scores late in fourth quarter to top South Alabama 28-24”
AP News · 2026-09-13 · read ↗
“Tulane rallies with late TD score to beat South Alabama, 28-24”
WWLTV.com · 2026-09-13 · read ↗
“Tulane 28-24 South Alabama (Sep 12, 2026) Box Score”
ESPN · 2026-09-12 · read ↗
🧐SkepticsNo prominent dissent — the coverage runs one way.›
The 'the model has seen the tape' counter -- efficiency ratings reward what a program has actually done, not hope.
Nothing in our corpus yet — this door stays open for when there is.
💬The boards6 board mentions — too thin to call a stance.›
Only 6 of 45 board posts mention it — below our floor to call a community stance. Shown as texture, not a verdict.
"South Alabama loves showing the world that people are wrong about them by being absolute ass"
r/CFB ~ fan take
The boards ≠ the fanbase: a vocal, self-selected slice.
Rival pulse
Troy
Hopeful+14
Battle for the Belt
Fan mood index · most recent r/cfb data
More in this tab
Game day
The experience
South Alabama is the Sun Belt program whose 2009 football founding + 2012 FBS reclassification + Hancock Whitney Stadium 2020 opening + 2023 7-6 + Kane Wommack era define what most-recent-FBS-newcomer-ascent looks like.
Offense: SolidRun/Pass: Run-heavy, ground-controlTempo: Methodical, ball-control
Open questions
The story
Roster
Roster Reload - South Alabama
2026 snapshot - 2026-09-15Returning Production79%High continuity
Talent Composite#107 nationally247 composite 573.4
Portal Additions12Primary repair: EDGE
Portal Losses30Primary pressure: DL
Draft Loss0No NFL Draft departures recorded
Recruiting Reload#77Depth class
Full roster (164 players)
CBAlfred Smith Jr., Bradley Thomas, Colby Williams, Cube Gurley, Davaris Pilcher, Deuce Vance, Evan Jones, Jaylen Moson, Jayvon Henderson, Saivion Kenon, TJ Collier, Tre Webb III
DLAndrew Washburn, Brayden Hurst, E'Mauri Smiley, Emmanuel Waller, Janier Armstead, Jeremiah Waldrond, Johnathan Street, Jordan May, Rodney Hunter, Stephen Johnson, Tre Brown, Tyler Carter, Tyler Wiley
LBCaleb Dozier, Chrystyile Caldwell, Darius McKenzie, Demetress Mosley, Donnie Arnold, IBK Mafe, Jacob Porco, Jordan Williams, Kaydon Degraffenreid, Parker Shattuck, Perry Hand, Seidrion Langston, Terry Kirksey Jr., Tirrell Johnson Jr., Tre'Mon Henry, Tyray Darensburg, William Felton IV, Xavious Anderson Jr., Zechariah Hall
OLAdrian Griffin, Amaury Wiggins, Andre Woods, Artem Korchagin Jr, Asher Hale, Aydan Newell, Brayden Ramey, Cam'Ron Thompson, Damon Parr, Daniel Foster-Allen, DeShaun Gonzales, Devin White, Devon Waller, Diego Camboia, Elliott Chaney, Eric Mahan, Ethan Hubbard, Jamal Scott, Jamal Siler, Jaylen Booker, Julius Kidd, Kearius Bivens, Kenton Jerido, Kyle Greak, Latrelle Lett, Leavy Johnson, Logan Joellenbeck, Naol Andarge, Ni Mansell, Noah Boyd, Reese Osei-Wusu, Sam Williams
QBAaden Shamburger, Bishop Davenport, Bubba Thompson, Jared Hollins, Jerry Horne, Taylor Jacobs Jr, Zach Pyron
RBAndre Spence, Anthony Jeffery, Caleb Wynn, Chris Holifield Jr., Donovan Crow, Iverson Celestine, Julyon Jordan, Keenan Phillips, Lavonte Cole, Miles Kelly, PJ Martin, Trae'von Dunbar
SAnthony Brown, Braiden Cheshire, Brian Dillard, Camden Lawson, Camen Upshaw, Christopher Wallace Jr., Cole Blaylock, Dallas Young, Damyrion Darby, Dashaun Caffee, David Houston III, Deon Callins, Kaleb Jackson, Kam Robinson, Kohl Bradley, Matthew Laseter, Micah McKay, Mike Harris, Teryn Green, Tomareo Johnson Jr, Tywon Wray Jr.
TECam McFarlin, Everett Hunter, Hollis McDaniel, Jordan Morris, Julius Mathis, Maddox Lynch, Miller McCrumby, Nate Forystek, Owen Carlson, Rod Gibbs
WRAnthony Eager, Brandon Nolan, Brendan Jenkins, Brian Barnes, Devin Voisin, Dominic White, JJ Williams, Jace Larsen, Jarvis Washington Jr, Jeremiah Jones-Thomas, Jerrian Graham, Keyshawn Woodyard, Khatori Marion, Micah Woods, Miguel Camboia, Nick Simmons, Noah Toster, Ti Mims, Trae Stevenson, Tylen Campbell
Offseason moves
The Offseason Ledger · South Alabama
2 verified updates · portal · recruiting · staff · news- Portal
EDGE Christian Ross transfer commits from Holy Cross
FCS-to-Sun Belt jumps aren't automatic, but Ross fills the Tyler Thomas-shaped hole on a Jaguar edge that added 6 and still needed pressure at the top — bouncing back from 4-8 starts with filling the room right.
- Recruiting
Craig Connor III commits to South Alabama
Applewhite's DL room needed bodies, not just stars — Connor III is the kind of depth-class add that keeps a #118 class from feeling thin up front when camp two-a-days hit.
Who's moved
Transfer portal snapshot
-19.8 net portal points
(raw ledger: -56.2 — unweighted, no position adjustment)DL-18.3
starter risk
OT-10.7
starter risk
WR-8.0
starter risk
S-7.3
starter risk
IOL-5.7
starter risk
EDGE+4.2
need filled
CB-3.9
K+3.5
QB-3.5
low confidence
TE-3.4
LB-3.1
Top commits
Top 3 commits
2026 class
★★★☆☆
Antwon Thomas
#606 national
★★★☆☆
Tomareo Johnson Jr
#1211 national
★★★☆☆
Donovan Crow
#1336 national
Profiles like a typical incoming running back — 14 of his 25 closest recruiting profiles since 2018 shared the Balanced Back archetype.~our read · projection from recruiting profile — no college snaps yet
Where they're from
Recruiting Footprint · 2026
Recruiting Footprint · 2026
36
MS · 9AL · 8GA · 5FL · 4LA · 4AZ · 1IL · 1KS · 1+3 more
MS leads the 2026 class with 9 commits. National footprint reaching 11 states.
Where they recruit · 2023-2026
89 signees across 13 states, 2023-2026. AL leads the pull.
Miles from home
Miles from home · 2026 roster
The median South Alabama player grew up 205 miles from campus.
Half this roster came from closer than that; half came from farther.
23rd-closest to home in FBS
of 135 ranked →
Closest to homeFarthest from home
Middle 50%96–326 miquartile spread
Within 100 mi26%41 of 157 players
Farthest1,938 miEverett Hunter · Manteca, CA
Closest7 miJared Hollins · Semmes, AL
Straight-line distance from each player's listed hometown to Hancock Whitney Stadium. Hometowns are placed at city-centroid precision, not street address — fine at this scale, but a player's true door-to-door number can differ by a few miles. 157 of 164 listed players have a geocoded hometown. Source: CFBD roster hometowns.
Recruiting buzz
r/cfb this year
[Postgame Thread] South Alabama Defeats ULM 26-14
Top community posts · last 12 months · r/cfb
Fans vs. market
Fan vs. market↑
92nd
Fan percentile
(FBS mood rank)
(FBS mood rank)
5.5
Vegas O/U wins
(26th among FBS)
(26th among FBS)
Fans 66pp more bullish than market implies
Win total consensus · 1 book
Penalties
Penalty battle
11 penalties committed, 12 drawn on opponents — a near-even trade all season.
93 penalty yards committed vs. 102 drawn on opponents, 2026 season total.
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