The rest of the season
4 of 4 games under 70%, the hardest: Louisiana 31%
Win out 6% · expect 2.1 of 4 more wins
South Alabama's chance to win each game left, from our model: Louisiana 31%, Troy 62%, Southern Miss 57%, App State 58%Bar height is our model’s chance in each game left. Dashed line: 50%.
Bowl chance went from 56% to 61%, peaking at 87% before a game
Our model, entering each game. The letter is the result of the game before it.
StandingTied for 4th in the Sun Belt · 2-2 in conference play · All standings
LeadersPassing Jared Hollins 1,195 · Rushing Keenan Phillips 576 · Receiving Brendan Jenkins 451 All player stats
Updated Wed Nov 4 · through week 9
Follow South Alabama:athletics siteSun BeltInstagram
| Wk | Date | Our rank | Opp rank | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf | Top performers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 5 | #60 | #139 | −13.5✓ +11.5 | SE Louisiana | W 39-14 123 | 1-0 | 0-0 | Pass Davenport 154 · Rush Martin 69 · Rec Jenkins 78 |
| 2 | Sep 12 | #61 | #74 | +9.5✓ +5.5 | @Tulane | L 24-28 123 | 1-1 | 0-0 | Pass Davenport 296 · Rush Martin 73 · Rec Jenkins 119 |
| 3 | Sep 19 | #64 | #54 | −7✗ −2 | Ohio | W 41-36 129 | 2-1 | 0-0 | Pass Hollins 192 · Rush Phillips 116 · Rec Jones-Thomas 74 |
| 4 | Sep 26 | #65 | #86 | +20.5✗ −3.5 | @Kentucky | L 21-45 142 | 2-2 | 0-0 | Pass Hollins 266 · Rush Martin 48 · Rec Jones-Thomas 91 |
| 5 | Oct 3 | #73 | #188 | −12.5✓ +4.5 | UL Monroe | W 52-35 134 | 3-2 | 1-0 | Pass Hollins 321 · Rush Dunbar 91 · Rec Eager 168 |
| 6 | Oct 8 | #80 | #140 | +3✓ +10 | @Arkansas State | W 56-49 130 | 4-2 | 2-0 | Pass Hollins 76 · Rush Phillips 157 · Rec Jenkins 36 |
| 7 | Bye week | ||||||||
| 8 | Oct 20 | #83 | #103 | −1.5✗ −8.5 | @Marshall | L 13-20 141 Firestorm | 4-3 | 2-1 | Pass Hollins 148 · Rush Phillips 70 · Rec Jenkins 75 |
| 9 | Oct 31 | #94 | #55 | +6✗ −9 | Louisiana Tech | L 20-35 132 | 4-4 | 2-2 | Pass Hollins 192 · Rush Martin 82 · Rec Eager 102 |
| 10 | Nov 7 | #99 | #40 | +8.5 | @Louisiana | 5 pm ET31% to win | |||
| 11 | Nov 14 | #100 | #114 | Troy | time TBA62% to win | ||||
| 12 | Nov 21 | @Southern Miss | time TBA57% to win | ||||||
| 13 | Nov 27 | App State | 3 pm ET | ||||||
Win chances are our model for South Alabama, through 8 games. This week's game comes from the playoff simulation, later games from the rating model. They are estimates and move every week.
The small line beside each score is the team's win chance through the game, drawn on one scale for every game. The small number is total plays.
Line is the closing point spread for South Alabama: a minus number means favored. A green check means the team covered it, by the number beside it. A red cross means it fell short by that much.
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Big plays (IsoPPP) | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31 | Louisiana Tech | L 20-35 | 397 | 2 | 33:23 | -0.091 | 43.4% | 1.25 | Season-low EPA/play |
| Oct 20 | @Marshall | L 13-20 | 326 | 1 | 30:38 | -0.062 | 35.5% | 1.32 | Best defensive stand |
| Oct 8 | @Arkansas State | W 56-49 | 372 | 1 | 28:39 | +0.310 | 45.2% | 1.40 | One-score win |
| Oct 3 | UL Monroe | W 52-35 | 570 | 0 | 31:02 | +0.386 | 50.7% | 1.37 | Best success rate |
| Sep 26 | @Kentucky | L 21-45 | 354 | 2 | 28:19 | -0.020 | 36.0% | 1.36 | |
| Sep 19 | Ohio | W 41-36 | 458 | 0 | 32:30 | +0.391 | 43.7% | 1.44 | Season-high EPA/play |
| Sep 12 | @Tulane | L 24-28 | 478 | 0 | 37:40 | +0.257 | 45.9% | 1.34 | One-score loss |
| Sep 5 | SE Louisiana | W 39-14 | 395 | 0 | 40:09 | +0.168 | 42.0% | 1.11 | |
| Season average (8 games) | 419 | 0.8 | +0.167 | 42.8% | 1.32 | ||||
South Alabama's wildest games since 2013: comebacks, long shots, line misses
Median odds across sportsbooks · Nov 4. A number with a minus is the favorite: −130 means $130 wins $100. A plus is the underdog: +170 means $100 wins $170.
What fans said
Real posts about each game (they name the opponent, a player or a play), chosen by community score · usernames not shown
The games that decide the season
Recent form · last 10 games
5-5 over the last 10, and lost the last two.
The open questionwhere does it go from here?
South Alabama Sun Belt championship odds lengthened, from 6.7% to 1.0% (down 5.7 points) between Nov 1 and Nov 2, 2026.
Statusbackground
Todd Orlando replaced Will Windham as South Alabama's defensive coordinator.
Statusbackground
Range of outcomes · South Alabama · 2026
Regular-season wins: chance of each total, from the game chances above
4 wins 5%; 5 wins 23%; 6 wins 39%; 7 wins 27%; 8 wins 6%Bars are the chance of each regular-season win total, from our model's chance in each game left, through 8 games. Paler bars are the outer 10% at each end. The closed row comes from the season-path projection, which also plays out conference title games and the CFP.
South Alabama Sun Belt championship odds lengthened, from 6.7% to 1.0% (down 5.7 points) between Nov 1 and Nov 2, 2026. The win total is down 0.1. The market moved and the fan conversation hasn't caught up. Little discussion of a line move usually means the information arrived before the coverage did. Discussion is thin, and the market moved faster than the reaction.
The 'market knows something fans don't' read: when odds move, it's on information.
The 'markets overcorrect' counter: lines move on noise too; the receipts may not hold.
Nothing in our corpus yet.
This event was in 44 of 291 board posts (15%) over the last 60 days, a large share of the conversation. Fan text is shown verbatim and credited to the community it came from; posters stay anonymous.
Board posters are a vocal, self-selected slice of the fanbase.
The off-field storyline drawing the most coverage right now. This section collects the drama around the program, kept apart from the analysis.
The optimistic read: momentum, and the 'this is real' takes.
The analytical counter: rankings, results, and 'the hype is ahead of the tape' takes.
Nothing in our corpus yet.
Only 1 of 291 board posts mention it, below our floor for calling a community stance. The posts are shown for texture only.
Board posters are a vocal, self-selected slice of the fanbase.
More in this tab
This week and this season
What it is like to watch them2026 · 4-4
Measured from 8 games · ranks are among Sun Belt teams the same season
South Alabama is one of the youngest programs in the sport — its first football game was in 2009 — and it has spent fifteen years writing a history from a blank page on the Gulf Coast in Mobile.
Jaguar fans live in the shadow of Alabama and Auburn, where the whole state's football identity already lives. They'll tell you South Alabama built a program from literally nothing in their…
South Alabama · Game-day weather
Typical at Hancock Whitney Stadium: 7:30 pm Saturdays score 96, noon Saturdays 79
Typical weather score at each kickoff time.
Tap a dot to read it.
At kickoff, regular-season Saturdays, 2018 to 2025: 114 at noon, 113 at 3:30 pm, 113 at 7:30 pm. Typical means the average of those Saturdays. It is not a forecast.
Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.
South Alabama is the Sun Belt program whose 2009 football founding + 2012 FBS reclassification + Hancock Whitney Stadium 2020 opening + 2023 7-6 + Kane Wommack era define what most-recent-FBS-newcomer-ascent looks like.
Roster and recruiting
Top 1 commits
Top community posts · last 12 months · r/cfb
Fans and ratings
Fan mood index · most recent r/CFB data
More
Each link was checked against two outside sites.
Range of outcomes · South Alabama · 2026