Kentucky 45-21 South Alabama (Sep 26, 2026) Final Score

Team pages: South Alabama · Kentucky

South Alabama2-221

Kentucky3-145Final

Sat, Sep 26 · Kroger Field, Lexington, Ky. · Crowd 61,127

Kentucky beat South Alabama 45-21.

We had Kentucky favored. It won.

Next: South Alabama beat UL Monroe 52-35, Sat Oct 3

Next: Kentucky beat South Carolina 35-34, Sat Oct 3

Top comment in the game thread

South in your mouth!! Way to go Hollins and Eager!!

Q2 11:10 · r/CFB game thread · Sat, Sep 26

How it swung

The turning point: Patterson 75-yd TD run, ties it 21-21 (Q2, 1:12). Kentucky went from 63% to 86% to win. Fans right then: “Kentucky is one of those teams that will keep it close with anyone, whether it’s Ohio State or Delta State” r/CFB game thread

Before kickoff, our ratings gave Kentucky a 54% chance, and the closing betting line (Kentucky was a 20.5-point favorite) put it at 95%.

Favored the whole way: Kentucky never fell below 62%.

South Alabama never had better than a 37% chance.

75-yard TD run

Kentucky · Q2 1:1231 unanswered

Kentucky · Q2 0:16

FinalKentucky 45-21 South AlabamaKentucky wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.

The two plays that swung it

1Q2 1:22Hollins 19-yd TD pass to Jones-Thomas, South Alabama goes ahead 21-14Kentucky 82% → 63% (−19)
2Q2 1:12Patterson 75-yd TD run, ties it 21-21Kentucky 63% → 86% (+23)

The two plays that swung it

1Q2 1:22Hollins 19-yd TD pass to Jones-Thomas, South Alabama goes ahead 21-14South Alabama 18% → 37% (+19)
2Q2 1:12Patterson 75-yd TD run, ties it 21-21South Alabama 37% → 14% (−23)

What fans said, play by play

The line in bold above each quote is written by our model from the thread’s comments and the play-by-play.

Q2 14:44A punt returner muffed the ball and it was recovered by the opposing team.Special Teams continues to be completely terrible today I seer/CFB game thread
Q2 11:10Hollins throws touchdown pass to Eager, giving South Alabama a 14-7 leadQuoted at the top of the page.Someone want to inform Kentucky that this is not Alabama.r/CFB game thread
Q2 1:31Kentucky's Patterson runs 75 yards for a touchdown to tie the gameKentucky is one of those teams that will keep it close with anyone, whether it’s Ohio State or Delta Stater/CFB game thread

Kentucky’s chance to win after every play.

How to read this chart

Starts from the pregame line (Kentucky -20.5), at 93% for Kentucky (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Outlined diamonds mark rare plays. Under the scores, r/CFB comments per minute from fans with a Kentucky or South Alabama flair (344 and 54); both sides share one scale, regulation only. A gold diamond marks a play fans were reacting to.

Watch the plays

The bar and the arrow show Kentucky’s chance to win after each play; the logo is the team the play helped.

Every drive

Kentucky scored on 7 of its 13 drives; South Alabama on 3 of its 14.

Kentucky’s drives are teal, South Alabama’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

From South Alabama’s side

South Alabama’s best moment: Hollins 19-yd TD pass to Jones-Thomas, South Alabama goes ahead 21-14 (Q2 1:22). It lifted South Alabama’s win chance by 19 points.

“Kentucky: We will keep it within 7 with anyone.”

A Kentucky fan

When fans got loud

Busy

The jump was busy; the crowd was steady.

A large share of the loudest stretch was about the officiating.

What it cost

Kentucky’s chance to make the playoff rose from 7% to 8%.

Make the playoff

South Alabama · lost0% → 0%

Kentucky · won7% → ▲8%

Win the conference

South Alabama · lost5% → ▼4%

Kentucky · won0% → 0%

Before the game (September 25, 2026) → after this result, in our model.

Box score

Kentucky 45, South Alabama 21

Kentucky covered −20.5 by 3.5. The total, 66, went over 54.5.

Team totals	South Alabama	Kentucky
Total yards	354	567
Passing	23 of 43, 266 yds	19 of 26, 177 yds
Rushing	31 for 88 yds	42 for 390 yds
First downs	19	26
Third down	4 of 15	2 of 8
Fourth down	2 of 5	1 of 3
Turnovers	2	2
Penalties	6 for 50 yds	2 for 22 yds
Time of possession	28:19	31:41

South Alabama leaders

Passing Jared Hollins 23 of 43, 266 yds, 2 TD, 2 INT
Rushing PJ Martin 9 for 48 yds, 1 TD; Jared Hollins 10 for 25 yds
Receiving Jeremiah Jones-Thomas 6 for 91 yds, 1 TD; Anthony Eager 4 for 67 yds, 1 TD

Kentucky leaders

Passing Kenny Minchey 19 of 25, 177 yds, 1 TD
Rushing CJ Baxter Jr. 16 for 149 yds, 1 TD; Jason Patterson 12 for 137 yds, 3 TD
Receiving Kenny Darby 3 for 43 yds; Henry Boyer 3 for 24 yds

No rain through the game

70° at kickoff · no rain recorded

September game-day temperatures at Kroger Field

Drag along the chart, or step through the game.

Second quarter, 1:12 left2:21 p.m.

South Alabama 21, Kentucky 21 · Kentucky 86% to win

no rain · 73°

Patterson 75-yd TD run, ties it 21-21

Measured at Lexington/bluegrass airport, 5.6 miles away. Rain is NOAA's radar-and-gauge estimate at the stadium and wind is an airport reading; neither is measured on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet; rain radar from NOAA MRMS, through Iowa State University. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last three games

South Alabama · 2-1

Rated 60th in our preseason ratings, 65th now.

2-1 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.

W 41-36 vs Ohio #56 of 668

won by 5 as a 7-point favorite

L 24-28 @ Tulane #71 of 668

lost by 4 as a 9.5-point underdog

W 39-14 vs SE Louisiana #138 of 668

won by 25 as a 13.5-point favorite

Last three games

Kentucky · 2-1

Rated 102nd in our preseason ratings, 86th now, up 16 spots.

2-1 in its last three, capped by a 10-point win over Texas A&M as a 16.5-point underdog.

W 31-21 @ Texas A&MTop 25 #8 of 668

won by 10 as a 16.5-point underdog

L 17-45 vs AlabamaTop 25 #20 of 668

lost by 28 as a 9.5-point underdog

W 45-13 vs Youngstown State #126 of 668

won by 32 as a 22.5-point favorite

Week by week

Kentucky

Wk 1Wvs Youngstown State45-13
Wk 2Lvs Alabama17-45
Wk 3Wat Texas A&M31-21

South Alabama

Wk 1Wvs SE Louisiana39-14
Wk 2Lat Tulane24-28
Wk 3Wvs Ohio41-36

Power rating by week

South Alabama is rated 2.3 points ahead as of week 3. Our power rating by week; higher is better.

Matchups

Biggest mismatch: Kentucky’s success rate against South Alabama, 80 points

Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.

Kentucky’s success rate against South Alabama’s defense
Kentucky offense, 82nd percentile · South Alabama defense, 2nd
Kentucky’s rushing EPA against South Alabama’s defense
Kentucky offense, 62nd percentile · South Alabama defense, 13th

Season profile, all the rows

Season profile

South AlabamaKentucky

EPA/play, offense

EPA/play, defense

Success rate, offense

Success rate, defense

Explosive-play rate, offense

Explosive-play rate, defense

Rush EPA, offense

Rush EPA, defense

Pass EPA, offense

Pass EPA, defense

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

South Alabama fans are in a better mood than Kentucky fans (83rd vs 71st among FBS fanbases), even with Kentucky favored.

Kentucky favored by 20.5 · Total 54.5

How games like this usually go

Kentucky by 20.5, and it went to form

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 251 games since 2025 with a favorite of 14.5 to 21.5 points.

The market

The spread moved 1 point toward Kentucky.

The total fell 1 point.

The books’ cut: 4.1%, the margin built into the odds

Weather at kickoff

Warm and dry. Feels like 73° at kickoff.

South Alabama at Kentucky · Saturday, Sept. 26, 2026 · Kroger Field, Lexington

73°feels like at kickoff
Dryno rain at kickoff
97weather score, Comfortable
Tiedfor the roughest of the day's 8 kickoff times

At kickoff, Sept. 26, 2026.

Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.

Kickoff times that Saturday

Games in this time zone used 8 kickoff times that day, local time (kickoffs within 30 minutes of each other count as one). This game, ringed, was tied for the roughest of the day's eight kickoff times. At Kroger Field that day, a 5 pm, 6 pm or 7 pm kickoff would have scored 100, against 97 at 12:45 pm.

The roughest kickoff time is the lowest of the day's times. It can still be Mixed or Comfortable.

noon: 99, Comfortable
12:45 pm: 97, Comfortable (this game)
2 pm: 96, Comfortable
3:30 pm: 96, Comfortable
4 pm: 97, Comfortable
5 pm: 100, Ideal
6 pm: 100, Ideal
7 pm: 100, Ideal

Weather score at each kickoff time.

Tap a dot to read that kickoff time.

At kickoff, Sept. 26, 2026. Wind is not drawn here; gusts are in each score.

Home field

Kentucky is worth +6.1 points (±4.1) more at home than on the road since 2018 — top third of FBS, 81st percentile.

60% at home, 45% on the road against FBS opponents (32-21 home, 18-22 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +0.7 at home vs. away over 101 games — inside the ±6.8 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.

The visitors travel about 548 miles to get here.

How it swung

Watch the plays

Every drive

From South Alabama’s side

When fans got loud

What it cost

Box score

South Alabama leaders

Kentucky leaders

No rain through the game

Jump to

Before kickoff

Recent games

Week by week

Kentucky

South Alabama

Power rating by week

Matchups

Biggest mismatch: Kentucky’s success rate against South Alabama, 80 points

Season profile

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

Kentucky by 20.5, and it went to form

The market

Weather at kickoff

Kickoff times that Saturday

Where next

Kentucky beats South Alabama 45-21

How it swung

Watch the plays

Every drive

From South Alabama’s side

When fans got loud

What it cost

Box score

South Alabama leaders

Kentucky leaders

No rain through the game

Jump to

Before kickoff

Recent games

Week by week

Kentucky

South Alabama

Power rating by week

Matchups

Biggest mismatch: Kentucky’s success rate against South Alabama, 80 points

Season profile

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

Kentucky by 20.5, and it went to form

The market

Weather at kickoff

Kickoff times that Saturday

Where next