The rest of the season
4 of 4 games under 70%, the hardest: No. 16 Tennessee 31%
Win out 3% · expect 1.7 of 4 more wins
Kentucky's chance to win each game left, from our model: Tennessee 31%, Florida 50%, Missouri 40%, Louisville 50%Bar height is our model’s chance in each game left. Dashed line: 50%.
Playoff chance went from 3% to 42%, peaking at 42% before a game
Our model, entering each game. The letter is the result of the game before it.
StandingTied for 1st in the SEC · 5-1 in conference play · All standings
LeadersPassing Kenny Minchey 1,755 · Rushing CJ Baxter Jr. 487 · Receiving Kenny Darby 507 All player stats
Updated Wed Nov 4 · through week 8
Follow Kentucky:athletics siteSECXYouTube
| Wk | Date | Our rank | Opp rank | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf | Top performers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 5 | #102 | #147 | −22.5✓ +9.5 | Youngstown State | W 45-13 127 | 1-0 | 0-0 | Pass Minchey 301 · Rush Patterson 78 · Rec Darby 74 |
| 2 | Sep 12 | #100 | #20 | +9.5✗ −18.5 | Alabama | L 17-45 127 | 1-1 | 0-1 | Pass Minchey 146 · Rush Patterson 53 · Rec Rodriguez 49 |
| 3 | Sep 19 | #95 | #6 | +16.5✓ +26.5 | @Texas A&MTop 10 win | W 31-21 138 Loud | 2-1 | 1-1 | Pass Minchey 252 · Rush Baxter 87 · Rec Miller 96 |
| 4 | Sep 26 | #86 | #65 | −20.5✓ +3.5 | South Alabama | W 45-21 142 | 3-1 | 1-1 | Pass Minchey 177 · Rush Baxter 149 · Rec Darby 43 |
| 5 | Oct 3 | #69 | #31 | +2.5✓ +3.5 | @South Carolina | W 35-34 152 | 4-1 | 2-1 | Pass Minchey 272 · Rush Baxter 48 · Rec Darby 96 |
| 6 | Oct 10 | #55 | #11 | +9.5✓ +10.5 | LSUTop 10 win | W 35-34 139 Loud | 5-1 | 3-1 | Pass Minchey 246 · Rush Baxter 123 · Rec Darby 79 |
| 7 | Oct 17 | #44 | #20 | +7✓ +15 | @Oklahoma | W 21-13 126 | 6-1 | 4-1 | Pass Minchey 158 · Rush Patterson 38 · Rec Anderson 48 |
| 8 | Oct 24 | #39 | #72 | −9.5✓ +7.5 | Vanderbilt | W 34-17 118 | 7-1 | 5-1 | Pass Minchey 203 · Rush Barnes 68 · Rec Darby 71 |
| 9 | Bye week | ||||||||
| 10 | Nov 7 | #37 | #21 | +6.5 | @Tennessee | 6:15 pm ET · ESPN31% to win | |||
| 11 | Nov 14 | #37 | #23 | Florida | time TBA · ESPN50% to win | ||||
| 12 | Nov 21 | @Missouri | time TBA40% to win | ||||||
| 13 | Nov 28 | Louisville | time TBA | ||||||
Win chances are our model for Kentucky, through 8 games. This week's game comes from the playoff simulation, later games from the rating model. They are estimates and move every week.
The small line beside each score is the team's win chance through the game, drawn on one scale for every game. The small number is total plays.
Line is the closing point spread for Kentucky: a minus number means favored. A green check means the team covered it, by the number beside it. A red cross means it fell short by that much.
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Big plays (IsoPPP) | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24 | Vanderbilt | W 34-17 | 376 | 0 | 31:03 | +0.317 | 56.1% | 0.87 | |
| Oct 17 | @Oklahoma | W 21-13 | 230 | 0 | 28:36 | +0.076 | 39.7% | 1.05 | One-score win |
| Oct 10 | LSU | W 35-34 | 401 | 0 | 27:30 | +0.144 | 41.4% | 1.19 | One-score win |
| Oct 3 | @South Carolina | W 35-34 | 394 | 0 | 33:29 | +0.189 | 50.0% | 0.96 | One-score win |
| Sep 26 | South Alabama | W 45-21 | 567 | 2 | 31:41 | +0.337 | 60.9% | 1.23 | Best success rate |
| Sep 19 | @Texas A&M | W 31-21 | 408 | 0 | 29:35 | +0.450 | 52.7% | 1.36 | Most explosive |
| Sep 12 | Alabama | L 17-45 | 209 | 3 | 27:46 | -0.342 | 32.8% | 0.96 | Season-low EPA/play |
| Sep 5 | Youngstown State | W 45-13 | 506 | 0 | 29:52 | +0.562 | 60.7% | 1.20 | Season-high EPA/play |
| Season average (8 games) | 386 | 0.6 | +0.217 | 49.3% | 1.10 | ||||
Kentucky's wildest games since 2013: comebacks, long shots, line misses
Sportsbook odds · Oct 19. A number with a minus is the favorite: −130 means $130 wins $100. A plus is the underdog: +170 means $100 wins $170.
What fans said
Real posts about each game (they name the opponent, a player or a play), chosen by community score · usernames not shown
The games that decide the season
Recent form · last 10 games
7-3 over the last 10, and won the last six.
Unlike that Kentucky game where every day it haunts me, you know, a decision in that, I’ve never thought twice about this decision
42% now · ▼ 8 points in the last week
Our simulation, 20,000 seasons a night, counted from the first full week of games.
The open questionwhere does it go from here?
Will Stein inherits a 5-7 losing record and a program that refuses to leave its football roots, raising questions about whether this uneasy fanbase will embrace his vision.
Statusdeveloping
Will Stein inherits a 5-7 roster and a 27% production return, but the program's identity as a football school now demands more than just rebuilding — it demands proving it belongs.
Statusdeveloping
Will Stein inherits a 5-7 losing record at Kentucky, a football program struggling to establish identity amid its basketball legacy.
Statusfront page
Written by our model from the storyline records. It can get facts wrong.
Range of outcomes · Kentucky · 2026
Regular-season wins: chance of each total, from the game chances above
7 wins 10%; 8 wins 32%; 9 wins 37%; 10 wins 18%; 11 wins 3%Bars are the chance of each regular-season win total, from our model's chance in each game left, through 8 games. Paler bars are the outer 10% at each end. The closed row comes from the season-path projection, which also plays out conference title games and the CFP.
The optimistic read: momentum, and the 'this is real' takes.
The analytical counter: rankings, results, and 'the hype is ahead of the tape' takes.
Nothing in our corpus yet.
This event was in 509 of 6559 board posts (8%) over the last 60 days, a modest share of the conversation. Fan text is shown verbatim and credited to the community it came from; posters stay anonymous.
Board health this week (409 posts): 20% positive · 47% neutral · 33% negative. This is the team's mood for the whole week, across all topics. Board posters are a vocal, self-selected slice of the fanbase.
The off-field storyline drawing the most coverage right now. This section collects the drama around the program, kept apart from the analysis.
The optimistic read: momentum, and the 'this is real' takes.
The analytical counter: rankings, results, and 'the hype is ahead of the tape' takes.
Nothing in our corpus yet.
This event was in 23 of 6559 board posts (0%) over the last 60 days, a modest share of the conversation. Fan text is shown verbatim and credited to the community it came from; posters stay anonymous.
Board health this week (409 posts): 20% positive · 47% neutral · 33% negative. This is the team's mood for the whole week, across all topics. Board posters are a vocal, self-selected slice of the fanbase.
More in this tab
This week and this season
What it is like to watch them2026 · 7-1
Measured from 8 games · ranks are among SEC teams the same season
Kentucky is the basketball blue blood that spent a decade making football matter under Mark Stoops — then fired the winningest coach in its history rather than slide back, betting a 36-year-old can keep the gridiron alive in a basketball state.
Fans are sick of hearing their school described as a basketball place that tolerates football — they remember the Stoops climb made the league take Kentucky seriously, and they refuse to be filed…
Kentucky · Game-day weather
Typical at Kroger Field: kickoff time makes little difference, scores run 87 to 90
Typical weather score at each kickoff time.
Tap a dot to read it.
At kickoff, 114 regular-season Saturdays at each kickoff time, 2018 to 2025. Typical means the average of those Saturdays. It is not a forecast.
Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.
Kentucky is the basketball school whose football program arrived in the 2010s and now refuses to leave.
The program ledger
since 2025Roster and recruiting
Top 1 commits
Top community posts · last 12 months · r/cfb
Fans and ratings
Fan confidence in a typical range for this program right now
56th percentile among FBS programs
70 of 70 AP voters have them ranked, AP ballot, week 9 (2026): from #4, Brett McMurphy (Action Network), to #16, Koki Riley (The (Baton Rouge) Advocate).
Individual AP Top 25 ballots, AP ballot, week 9, 2026, 70 voters tracked.
Fan mood index · most recent r/CFB data
More
7Will Stein inherits a 5-7 losing record and a program that refuses to abandon its football roots despite a 3-win drop below bowl eligibility.
Each link was checked against two outside sites.
Range of outcomes · Kentucky · 2026