Kentucky

1-1

SEC · Will Stein, year 1 (1-1) · Kroger Field · 61,000 · 60,993 avg in 2026

The nationunrankedAP / Coaches
The model#93 CFB ZeitgeistSP+ #39 (+8.5) · FPI #51
The marketTexas A&M by 17at Texas A&M · our model 4% Kentucky · a number, not a pick

LastL 17–45 vs Alabama · Sat Sep 12 · Mi'Quise Grace 1 sacks, 1.5 TFL, 1 INT

Nextat Texas A&M · Sat Sep 19 · 3:30 pm ET · Kyle Field · Texas A&M by 17 · series 1-2, lost the last 2 · Game preview

Updated Tue Sep 15 · through week 2

Kentucky · 2026 schedule & results1-1
WkDateUsOppLineOpponentResultRecordConf
1Sep 5#102#147-22.5Youngstown StateW 45–13 1271-00-0
2Sep 12#100#20+9.5AlabamaL 17–45 1271-10-1
3Sep 19#96#6+17@Texas A&M
4Sep 26#96#64South Alabama
5Oct 3@South Carolina
6Oct 10LSU
7Oct 17@Oklahoma
8Oct 24Vanderbilt
10Nov 7@Tennessee
11Nov 14Florida
12Nov 21@Missouri
13Nov 28Louisville
Advanced box score (EPA, success rate, explosiveness)
DateOppResultYdsTOTOPEPA/playSuccess%Explosive%Note
Sep 12AlabamaL 17–45209327:46-0.17632.8%96.1%
Sep 5Youngstown StateW 45–13506029:52+0.56260.7%119.8%
Season average (2 games)3581.5+0.19346.7%108.0%
Verdict Begins·Live

Kentucky is the basketball blue blood that spent a decade making football matter under Mark Stoops — then fired the winningest coach in its history rather than slide back, betting a 36-year-old can keep the gridiron alive in a basketball state.

Title DroughtSince 1976 · 50 yrs

Fans are sick of hearing their school described as a basketball place that tolerates football — they remember the Stoops climb made the league take Kentucky seriously, and they refuse to be filed back…

moderate signal
Read the full program story ↓

The season in chapters

What fans said

Real posts from the day of the game, chosen by community score · usernames not shown

What it is like to watch them2025 · 5-7 · last season

Game feel49even gamescombined pts / game9th highest-scoring of 16 in the SEC
Heart rate2-2rarely closein one-score games (4 of 12)13th most one-score games of 16 in the SEC
Margin-3.4outgunnedavg scoring margin16th best margin of 16 in the SEC
Tempo66average paceoffensive plays / game9th fastest of 16 in the SEC
Big plays1.13grind it outexplosiveness (IsoPPP)15th most explosive of 16 in the SEC
Home crowd57,779avg attendance13th biggest crowds of 16 in the SEC

✓ measured from 12 games · ranks are among SEC teams the same season

Recent form · last 10 games · incl. 2025

Kentucky has won two of its last five.

Cooling. 4-6 over the last 10, and lost the last one.

Streak L1Last 5 · 2-3Last 10 · 4-6
It was one of those late-night texts where he was trying to motivate me, and I was trying to motivate him
Coleton · On33 days after Kentucky's 2026 opener
The forecast

Next Sep 19

vs Texas A&M · away

Season line4.5 winsover -150
PoorMethodical, ball-controlSoft

✓ fact on line · ~ our read on style

Market outlook

Season expectations

Win total1 booksO/U 4.5
CFP championship#36 in field+40000
SEC title#14 in market+15000

Sportsbook consensus · best odds across multiple books · 2026-09-14

Kentucky · the story right now 7 storylines developing

What Kentucky's coaching hire is really about

the open questioncan a new staff change the trajectory?

coachingthis cycle~readnew

Will Stein inherits a 5-7 roster and a 27% production return, but the program's identity as a football school now demands more than just rebuilding — it demands proving it belongs.

what happenedWill Stein took over as Kentucky's head coach, replacing Mark Stoops. ✓ fact
the contextreplaces 13-year head coach Mark Stoops (82-80)

our readdeveloping

portal2026-01-21~readnew

Mark Stoops' highest-ranked portal class on record arrives as Kentucky's 5-7 losing season fades — Kenny Minchey (QB) and 29 additions aim to fix a roster with only 27% of production returning.

what happenedKentucky signed a top-9 transfer-portal class — 31 additions headlined by Kenny Minchey (QB) from Notre Dame and Callum Wither (QB) from Laurier. ✓ fact
the contextprogram's highest-ranked portal class on record

our readdeveloping

governance shockthis cycle~readnew

Will Stein inherits a 5-7 losing record at Kentucky, a football program struggling to establish identity amid its basketball legacy.

what happenedKentucky: an outside ruling reshaping the program's season. ✓ fact

our readdeveloping

deep threat2025 cycle~attributednew

Hardley Gilmore IV is a real deep-ball threat -- a high share of his targets come on throws past the sticks.

our readbackground

deep threat2025 cycle~attributednew

Kendrick Law is used almost exclusively underneath -- a low share of his targets are downfield shots.

our readbackground

program_outlook2025 cycle~readnew

Kentucky dropped 21 spots in SP+ under Mark Stoops — a middle-tier program's arrival in the 2010s now faces its first sustained test.

what happenedKentucky enters 2025 rated No. 66 in SP+ (+1.8), down 21 spots from 2024. ✓ fact

our readbackground

coordinatorsthis cycle~readnew

Mark Stoops enters his 10th season with a 5-7 losing record, as Kentucky's football program clings to its hard-won SEC foothold amid coordinator-driven reshaping.

what happenedKentucky: coordinator change reshaping a unit. ✓ fact

our readbackground

How past storylines here turned out

Died downKentucky's offensive coordinator change has died down — no clear next chapter yet.

Outcome band · Kentucky · 2026

Kentucky's most likely season is 8-5 — a bowl game. The floor is 5-7; the ceiling is 10-3.

Floor5-7No postseason.
Base8-5A bowl game.
Ceiling10-3A bowl game, 2 more wins.

Floor, base and ceiling come from the season-path projection, which plays out conference title games and the CFP — so a ceiling can run past 12 games.

How the room reactedreal evidence · tap rooms to explore
Following now · Kentucky · Coaching Confidence

The Will Stein story at Kentucky won't sit still.

Will Stein took over as Kentucky's head coach, replacing Mark Stoops. It is replaces 13-year head coach Mark Stoops (82-80). It's not the hire that's the story anymore — it's everything it set in motion. The room has bought in, but early believers have been wrong before.

skeptical — but there's a bull case where the takes land · dot = how loud
DOUBTBELIEF
Skeptics3 doubt takes
Believers1 bull take
💬 fans: 4% volume · mostly neutral
Developing3 new this week
2 days agoWill Stein Assesses Kentucky's Passing Struggles Against Alabama — On3
2 days agoWill Stein discusses Kentucky's second-half collapse against Alabama — Sports Illustrated
2 days agoKentucky Wildcats News: How does Kentucky respond to first setback under Will Stein? — news
last weekWin total (line at 4.5) still unmoved 12d after "Tovani Mizell out for season"
last weekWin total (line at 4.5) still unmoved 11d after "Tovani Mizell out for season"
The cast who's driving the story · latest headline on each, attributed
Mark Stoops Out
Kroger Field
“Will Stein just gave BBN permission to sneak a flask into Kroger Field and cuss at Alabama” — news · 2026-09-11
Leaving Oregon
“Leaving Oregon for 'dream job' at Kentucky was easy decision for Will Stein” — On3 · 2026-09-10
CFB Zeitgeist Read · our take
Will Stein inherits a 5-7 roster and a 27% production return, but the program's identity as a football school now demands more than just rebuilding — it demands proving it belongs.
Source of record: Will Stein took over as Kentucky's head coach, replacing Mark Stoops — replaces 13-year head coach Mark Stoops (82-80).
How each room is reacting — tap to expand
Believers bullishSkeptics dissentThe Boards quietThe Dominoes active
📣Believers1 bullish/hire items -- the case it's working.

The 'this hire changes everything' takes -- new-era believers making the case early.

“Will Stein Apologizes to 'Elite' Fans, Vows Kentucky can still Disrupt the SEC”
On3 · 2026-09-13 · read ↗
“Will Stein discusses Kentucky's second-half collapse against Alabama”
Sports Illustrated · 2026-09-13 · read ↗
“Kentucky Wildcats News: How does Kentucky respond to first setback under Will Stein?”
Kentucky Wildcats · Beat writer · 2026-09-13 · read ↗
🧐Skeptics“Will Stein Assesses Kentucky's Passing Struggles Against Alabama” — the real counter.

The 'show me the body of work' counter -- resume gaps, scheme fits, and 'not that guy' reads.

“Will Stein Assesses Kentucky's Passing Struggles Against Alabama”
On3 · 2026-09-13 · read ↗
“In Game 2 for Will Stein, the coach gets a UK football reality check”
Yahoo Sports · 2026-09-13 · read ↗
💬The boards4% of recent board volume — quieter than the headlines. Board mood this week: mostly neutral · anger notable (77%).

This event was in 58 of 1497 board posts (4%) over the last 60 days — engaged but not consumed. Fan text shown verbatim, attributed to the community not the individual poster.

"Ya i agree. I’m disappointed, but proud of my team. Played hard, just ultimately outmanned. I was surprised at how inept our offense looked for most of the game. I expected their D"
r/CFB ~ fan take
"Eh, I remain skeptical. It’s not to say I’m negative on Stein or anything, I’m very much feel good about the future of the program (for now). This year though we very much have a c"
r/CFB ~ fan take

Board health this week (399 posts): 24% positive · 44% neutral · 32% negative. Team-level weekly mood — not specific to this event. The boards ≠ the fanbase: a self-selected vocal slice.

🔗The dominoes8 downstream moves — the hire's knock-on effects.

The second-order trail: commits, decommits, portal and staff knock-on from the hire.

“Louisville football 4-star commit Ja'Hyde Brown immediately shuts down Kentucky rumor”
Big Red Louie · 2026-09-11 · read ↗
“Top-10 recruit Adan Diggs includes Kentucky in trimmed list”
Beat writer · 2026-09-11 · read ↗
Following now · Kentucky · Transfer portal Confidence

Kentucky's top-9 portal class: the window closed in their favor. The snaps decide who actually matters.

Kentucky signed a top-9 transfer-portal class — 31 additions headlined by Kenny Minchey (QB) from Notre Dame and Callum Wither (QB) from Laurier. It is program's highest-ranked portal class on record. Portal pickups don't redshirt. The coverage sees this as a targeted, ready-to-contribute class built for snap competition, not depth-chart filler. The coverage reads this as a credible, targeted haul.

near-unanimous belief where the takes land · dot = how loud
DOUBTBELIEF
Believers6 bull takes
🎪 drama: simmering💬 fans: 3% volume · mostly neutral
Developing3 new this week
3 days agoAlabama scores on pick-6 as Luke Metz intercepts Kentucky QB Kenny Minchey — news
4 days agoNevada transfer Tayshawn Comer commits to Washington — news
6 days agoFinnish lineman Olaus Alinen thriving for Kentucky after Alabama transfer — Lexington Herald Leader
last weekWin total (line at 4.5) still unmoved 12d after "Tovani Mizell out for season"
last weekWin total (line at 4.5) still unmoved 11d after "Tovani Mizell out for season"
The cast who's driving the story · latest headline on each, attributed
Kenny Minchey QB · Notre Dame
“Alabama scores on pick-6 as Luke Metz intercepts Kentucky QB Kenny Minchey” — news · 2026-09-12
Callum Wither QB · Laurier
CFB Zeitgeist Read · our take
Mark Stoops' highest-ranked portal class on record arrives as Kentucky's 5-7 losing season fades — Kenny Minchey (QB) and 29 additions aim to fix a roster with only 27% of production returning.
Source of record: Kentucky signed a top-9 transfer-portal class — 31 additions headlined by Kenny Minchey (QB) from Notre Dame and Callum Wither (QB) from Laurier — program's highest-ranked portal class on record.
How each room is reacting — tap to expand
The Circus dramaBelievers bullishSkeptics no dissentThe Boards quiet
🎪The circus“Mark Mitchell files lawsuit in Louisville for extra year of elig” — the saga that won't quit.

The off-field storyline driving the noise right now. Not analysis — the soap opera, and that's the point.

“Mark Mitchell files lawsuit in Louisville for extra year of eligibility and to enter transfer portal”
Beat writer · 2026-08-13 · read ↗
📣Believers6 bullish/portal items -- the case it's working.

The 'portal class fills the gaps' believers -- upgrades at real positions of need.

“Nevada transfer Tayshawn Comer commits to Washington”
On3 CFB · 2026-09-11 · read ↗
“Kenny Minchey shines as Kentucky rolls to 45-13 win in Will Stein’s debut”
Spectrum News · 2026-09-06 · read ↗
“Minchey shines in debut as Kentucky starts Stein era with 45-13 win over Youngstown State”
fox56news.com · 2026-09-05 · read ↗
🧐SkepticsNo prominent dissent — the coverage runs one way.

The 'portal is a gamble' counter -- departure losses and the 'plug-and-play doesn't work' read.

Nothing in our corpus yet — this door stays open for when there is.

💬The boards3% of recent board volume — quieter than the headlines. Board mood this week: mostly neutral · anger notable (77%).

This event was in 45 of 1497 board posts (3%) over the last 60 days — engaged but not consumed. Fan text shown verbatim, attributed to the community not the individual poster.

"Kentucky football opened the Will Stein era with a 45-13 win over No. 7 Youngstown State. Kenny Minchey and several young playmakers impressed as the Wildcats turned their attentio"
r/wildcats ~ fan take
"Offense worked like a dream, can't say anything bad regarding that. No sacks for the day, RBs finding holes and getting big yardage, Minchey having a good head about him and gettin"
r/CFB ~ fan take

Board health this week (399 posts): 24% positive · 44% neutral · 32% negative. Team-level weekly mood — not specific to this event. The boards ≠ the fanbase: a self-selected vocal slice.

Rival pulse

Tennessee
Mixed
-3
Tennessee-Kentucky
Louisville
Mixed
-2
Governor's Cup

Fan mood index · most recent r/cfb data

More in this tab

Game dayWhat a Saturday in this stadium actually feels like.
The experience

Kentucky is the basketball school whose football program arrived in the 2010s and now refuses to leave.

Offense: PoorTempo: Methodical, ball-controlDefense: Soft
Program ledgerEvery dated move on this program's record, newest first.

The program ledger

since 2025
  • 2026Hired Will Stein
  • 2025Mark Stoops departs82-80
RosterWho's gone, who's back, who replaces them.

Roster Reload - Kentucky

2026 snapshot - 2026-09-15
Returning Production19%Low continuity / heavy reload
Talent Composite#23 nationally247 composite 786.6
Portal Additions31Primary repair: S
Portal Losses27Primary pressure: CB
Draft Loss4NFL Draft departures (4) — 2 with a next man up identified below
Recruiting Reload#60Development class
WRin 5 - Nic Anderson3.80out 6 - Cameron Miller3.70Downgrade
current room: 191 lbs avg (2025 roster)
Jump-Ball Target2025 profilewins the 50-50 ball at the goal line
Transferred in
CBin 2 - Mark Manfred III3.60out 4 - DJ Waller Jr.3.60Starter Risk
current room: 197 lbs avg (2025 roster)
DLin 3 - Jamarrion Harkless3.70out 3 - Jerod Smith II3.60Even
current room: 289 lbs avg (2025 roster)
Two-Gap Base2025 profilewins his gap play after play
Sin 4 - Jordan Castell3.70out 1 - Cam Dooley3.60Need Filled
Box Safetyplays like an extra linebacker near the line
IOLin 3 - Coleton Price4.50out 2 - Evan Wibberley3.60Upgrade
current room: 322 lbs avg (2025 roster)
QBin 3 - Kenny Minchey4.25out 2 - Cutter Boley3.90Upgrade
current room: 224 lbs avg (2025 roster)
Next man up
RB · departedSeth McGowan4★ · Rd 7, Pk 21
nowJason Patterson3★ · FR
Next man up
WR · departedKendrick Law4★ · Rd 5, Pk 28
nowJavian Hester4★ · SR
Projected starter
Full roster (114 players)
Offseason movesEvery addition and subtraction since the last snap.

The Offseason Ledger · Kentucky

6 verified updates · portal · recruiting · staff · news
  1. News

    Afari joins eligibility lawsuit

    Four NFL departures, a CB room under pressure, and a class sitting at #60 nationally — Afari joining the eligibility lawsuit is the kind of wildcard that could quietly reshape what Will Stein's rebuild actually looks like this fall.

  2. News

    Tovani Mizell out for season

    Mizell's season-ending injury hits a CB room already under pressure — four draft departures and a #60 class rank don't leave Stein with much margin to absorb another body at a position that was already thin.

    Aug 22Reported
  3. News

    Hardley Gilmore IV dismissed from Kentucky

    CB depth was already a pressure point with 4 NFL Draft departures and a #60 class — losing Gilmore IV before Stein's first fall camp makes a thin room thinner.

  4. News

    Afari closer to eligibility

    CB room already bleeding from four NFL departures, and Afari's eligibility clock ticking toward active — Stein needs that corner depth before the SEC schedule starts asking real questions.

  5. News

    WKU player dismissed for failure to report

    WKU's dismissed player doesn't solve Kentucky's CB pressure problem on his own — but Stoops picks up a warm body for a room already thin after four draft departures drained the depth chart.

    Jul 15Reported
  6. News

    Kentucky announces jersey patch deal

    Jersey patch money landing in Lexington right as Will Stein inherits a CB room under pressure and four draft departures to replace — revenue isn't optics, it's how you fund a top-9 portal class before the next cycle starts.

Who's movedWho's transferring in and out, right now.

Transfer portal snapshot

+3.7 net portal points
(raw ledger: +21.1 — unweighted, no position adjustment)
S
+10.7
need filled
OT
+7.9
need filled
CB
-6.5
starter risk
IOL
+5.8
QB
+3.9
K
+3.3
low confidence
WR
-3.2
LB
-2.9
DL
+2.5
EDGE
-0.3
LS
+0.0
RB
+0.0
Top commits

Top 3 commits

2026 class
★★★★☆
Kenny Darby
WR · Bossier City, LA
#218 national
Profiles like a typical incoming wide receiver — 14 of his 25 closest recruiting profiles since 2018 shared the Possession Receiver archetype.~our read · projection from recruiting profile — no college snaps yet
★★★★☆
Matt Ponatoski
QB · Cincinnati, OH
#219 national
Profiles like a typical incoming quarterback — 13 of his 25 closest recruiting profiles since 2018 shared the Pocket Passer archetype.~our read · projection from recruiting profile — no college snaps yet
★★★★☆
Andre Clarke Jr.
CB · Richmond, VA
#249 national
Where they're fromWhere this class actually comes from, on the map.

Recruiting Footprint · 2026

20
AL · 3KY · 3TX · 3IN · 2FL · 1GA · 1KS · 1LA · 1+5 more

AL leads the 2026 class with 3 commits. National footprint reaching 13 states.

Where they recruit · 2023-2026

89 signees across 21 states, 2023-2026. KY leads the pull.

MEVTNHWAIDMT1NDMNWIMI3NYMAORNVWYSDIAILIN3OH12PA3NJ2CTCA1UTCONEMO2KY18WVVA1MD1DERIAZNMKS1ARTN5NC1SC3DCOK1LA1MSAL8GA10AKHITX4FL8
Source CFB Zeitgeist · player_recruiting_profiles

That is 18.8% of every high-school FBS signee KY produced over those cycles — dead level with Louisville as the state's biggest signer. The full map →

Miles from homeHow far this roster travelled to get here.

Miles from home · 2026 roster

The median Kentucky player grew up 325 miles from campus.

Half this roster came from closer than that; half came from farther.

63rd-farthest from home in FBS of 135 ranked →
Closest to homeFarthest from home
Middle 50%163–644 miquartile spread
Within 100 mi17%18 of 105 players
Farthest1,956 miJordan Colbert · Merced, CA
Closest2 miTy Bryant · Lexington, KY

Straight-line distance from each player's listed hometown to Kroger Field. Hometowns are placed at city-centroid precision, not street address — fine at this scale, but a player's true door-to-door number can differ by a few miles. 105 of 114 listed players have a geocoded hometown. Source: CFBD roster hometowns.

In-state shareHow much of this roster is home-grown.

Who owns KY · 2026 roster

13% of the Kentucky roster grew up in KY.

14 of 109 players, drawn from 25 states in all. That is the 123rd-highest in-state share of 135 ranked FBS programs.

GA · 16OH · 16KY · 14FL · 11TX · 11AL · 6CA · 4IN · 3+17 more

Where the 2026 roster is from

109 players across 25 states. Biggest pull outside KY: GA (16).

MEVTNHWAIDMT1NDMNWIMI1NYMAORNV1WYSDIA1IL2IN3OH16PANJ1CTCA4UTCONEMO1KY14WV2VA2MD2DERIAZ1NMKSARTN3NC2SC3DC1OK1LA3MSAL6GA16AKHITX11FL11
Source CFB Zeitgeist · roster_entries (CFBD hometowns)
Every FBS roster ranked by in-state share →

Home state as listed on the CFBD roster. 5 listed players fall outside the 50 states and DC (international hometowns, or no state listed) and are excluded from the denominator. Source: CFBD roster hometowns.

Recruiting buzzWhat fans say about the incoming class right now.

r/cfb this year

[Postgame Thread] Kentucky Defeats Tennessee Tech 42-10
65 upvotes · Nov 2025
[Game Thread] Tennessee Tech @ Kentucky (1:30 PM ET)
15 upvotes · Nov 2025

Top community posts · last 12 months · r/cfb

How it turned outHow an old class actually turned out, years on.
Class Autopsy
The 2023 class: 0 drafted so far, 28% never transferred. F
See the class →
Belief historyHow today's fan mood compares to the program's past.

Fan confidence in a typical range for this program right now

69th percentile among FBS programs

Fans vs. marketWhere fans and the betting market read this team differently.
Fan vs. market
69th
Fan percentile
(FBS mood rank)
4.5
Vegas O/U wins
(13th among FBS)
Fans 56pp more bullish than market implies
Win total consensus · 1 book
Turnover luckHow much of the margin was skill vs. the bounce.
Fumble luck

The bounces have gone their way on their own fumbles: 60% recovered, vs. ~54% expected.

3 of 5 own fumbles recovered themselves, 2026 only.

TakeawaysWhat this defense does once it gets the ball.
Takeaway conversion

Cashing in at a normal clip: 18% of disrupted passes intercepted, close to ~18% league-wide.

2 interceptions of 11 disrupted passes (9 deflected, 2 intercepted), 2026 only.

PenaltiesWhether flags are costing this team games.
Penalty battle

The flags haven't favored them: 14 penalties committed vs. 12 drawn on opponents, 67 yards behind.

140 penalty yards committed vs. 73 drawn on opponents, 2026 season total.

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