Kentucky at Tennessee
Kentucky (#8, 7‑1) travels to Tennessee (#16, 6‑2), with Tennessee favored by 6.5. The model gives Tennessee a 69% shot. Kentucky’s offense is at the 4th percentile on explosive plays; Tennessee’s defense is at the 92nd.
This is Tennessee-Kentucky — see the full head-to-head history →
How they got here
Last three games
Kentucky · 7-1
Rated 102nd in our preseason ratings, 37th now, up 65 spots.
Three straight wins, including a 8-point win over Oklahoma as a 7-point underdog.
Last three games
Tennessee · 6-2
Rated 30th in our preseason ratings, 21st now.
2-1 in its last three, including a 16-point win over Alabama as a 7.5-point underdog.
Biggest mismatch: Kentucky’s explosive plays against Tennessee, 88 points
Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.
Kentucky’s explosive plays against Tennessee’s defense
Kentucky offense, 4th percentile · Tennessee defense, 92nd
Tennessee’s success rate against Kentucky’s defense
Tennessee offense, 67th percentile · Kentucky defense, 23rd
Kentucky’s passing EPA against Tennessee’s defense
Kentucky offense, 67th percentile · Tennessee defense, 95th
What’s at stake
Make the playoff
Win the conference
Win the title
CFP odds as of November 4, 2026
The series
Tennessee leads the series 84-25-9
118 meetings since 1906 · Tennessee has won the last 5
- 2025Tennessee 56-34
- 2024Tennessee 28-18
- 2023Tennessee 33-27
- 2022Tennessee 44-6
- 2021Tennessee 45-42
Each line is Tennessee’s chance to win through that meeting. Tennessee is 4-0 in the meetings since 2018 that were still close in the fourth quarter.
Face-off
What each fanbase carries into this one.
Kentucky
The chip · vs the national mediaFans are sick of hearing their school described as a basketball place that tolerates football — they remember the Stoops climb made the league take Kentucky seriously, and they refuse to be filed back under afterthought just because one era ended.
What this game touches
Firing Mark Stoops. Stoops left as the winningest coach in Kentucky football history after 13 years that dragged the program from doormat to ranked teams and bowl streaks — but back-to-back bowl-less seasons, capped by a 5-7 finish in 2025, ended it. Letting go of the man who built modern Kentucky football is a wound even for fans who wanted the change.
Tennessee
The chip · vs the national mediaFans spent a decade hearing the program eulogized — that the giant was done, that the wilderness was the new normal, that the fight song was the only thing left worth showing on TV. They never believed it, and the Heupel years are the receipt they keep waving.
What this game touches
The Iamaleava departure. Days before the 2025 spring game, quarterback Nico Iamaleava missed practice in an NIL standoff and transferred to UCLA, leaving the restoration's centerpiece gone over a contract dispute. Heupel rebuilt around App State transfer Joey Aguilar, who threw for the third-most yards in a Vols season ever, but an 8-5 finish and a Music City Bowl loss to Illinois showed how thin the margin still is.
Best players
Kentucky
- Grant Godfrey (LB) · 72 tackles
- Jordan Castell (DB) · 65 tackles
- Ty Bryant (DB) · 59 tackles
Tennessee
- DeSean Bishop (RB) · 957 rushing yards — Heisman odds: 95th (+40000)
- Amare Campbell (LB) · 52 tackles
- Arion Carter (LB) · 46 tackles
What to watch
Player to watch: Kenny Minchey (QB) — Kentucky’s leading passer (1,755 passing yards) takes on Tennessee’s pass defense (95th percentile allowed).
The betting line, and the fans
Tennessee fans are feeling it more than most fanbases this week (64th percentile among FBS fanbases), in line with the numbers.
Tennessee favored by 6.5 · Total 50.5
Tennessee by 6.5: where a favorite like this usually runs
Half of games8 in 10 games
Tennessee’s chance through the game, if this goes like the 427 games since 2025 with a favorite of 3.5 to 7.5 points.
Weather at kickoff
Typical at Neyland Stadium: 7:30 pm Saturdays score 93, 3:30 pm Saturdays 88
Kentucky at Tennessee · Saturday, Nov. 7 · 6:15 pm ET · Neyland Stadium.
Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.
If it kicked off at
Typical at Neyland Stadium: noon Saturdays score 90, 3:30 pm 88, 7:30 pm 93.
- noon: 90, Comfortable
- 3:30 pm: 88, Mixed
- 7:30 pm: 93, Comfortable
Typical weather score at each kickoff time.
Typical means the average of regular-season Saturdays at this stadium, 2018 to 2025. It is not a forecast for this game.
Home field
Tennessee is worth +6.6 points (±4.8) more at home than on the road since 2018 — top third of FBS, 88th percentile.
66% at home, 47% on the road against FBS opponents (35-18 home, 18-20 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +1.6 at home vs. away over 99 games — inside the ±6.6 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. The visitors travel about 146 miles to get here.
Season profile
Week by week
Tennessee
- Wk 4Lvs Texas17-20
- Wk 5Wvs Auburn24-14
- Wk 6Wat Arkansas24-17
- Wk 7Wvs Alabama26-10
- Wk 8Lat South Carolina24-27
Kentucky
- Wk 4Wvs South Alabama45-21
- Wk 5Wat South Carolina35-34
- Wk 6Wvs LSU35-34
- Wk 7Wat Oklahoma21-13
- Wk 8Wvs Vanderbilt34-17
Power rating by week
Tennessee is rated 2.8 points ahead as of week 10. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
The market
The spread moved 0.5 points toward Tennessee.
Spread: −6 → −6.5
The books’ cut: 4.3%, the margin built into the odds
Conference standings
Going into this game: place in the conference, then conference record.
Last meeting in our History pages
- Tennessee 44, Kentucky 6Oct 29, 2022
Our History pages cover 2 of their meetings since 2018.