The rest of the season
4 of 4 games under 70%, the hardest: Western Kentucky 39%
Win out 7% · expect 2.1 of 4 more wins
Kennesaw State's chance to win each game left, from our model: Delaware 51%, Sam Houston 64%, Florida International 54%, Western Kentucky 39%Bar height is our model’s chance in each game left. Dashed line: 50%.
Bowl chance went from 66% to 5%, peaking at 66% before a game
Our model, entering each game. The letter is the result of the game before it.
StandingTied for 8th in the Conference USA · 1-3 in conference play · All standings
LeadersPassing Rickie Collins 1,617 · Rushing Alan Woods III 358 · Receiving Brayden Munroe 397 All player stats
Updated Wed Nov 4 · through week 9
Follow Kennesaw State:athletics siteConference USAX
| Wk | Date | Our rank | Opp rank | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf | Top performers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 3 | #158 | #213 | −22.5✓ +24.5 | West Georgia | W 47-0 132 | 1-0 | 0-0 | Pass Collins 156 · Rush Murrell 88 · Rec Rogers 55 |
| 2 | Sep 12 | #153 | #154 | −7.5✗ −21.5 | Georgia State | L 17-31 126 | 1-1 | 0-0 | Pass Collins 260 · Rush Collins 46 · Rec Rogers 74 |
| 3 | Sep 19 | #149 | #30 | +35.5✓ +2.5 | @Tennessee | L 9-42 131 | 1-2 | 0-0 | Pass Collins 189 · Rush Collins 36 · Rec Booker 78 |
| 4 | Sep 26 | #153 | #151 | +6.5✓ +3.5 | @Arkansas State | L 14-17 124 | 1-3 | 0-0 | Pass Collins 129 · Rush Woods III 101 · Rec Rogers 45 |
| 5 | Bye week | ||||||||
| 6 | Oct 7 | #157 | #71 | +3✓ +2 | Jacksonville State | L 26-27 139 Firestorm | 1-4 | 0-1 | Pass Collins 293 · Rush Collins 61 · Rec Munroe 159 |
| 7 | Oct 14 | #146 | #122 | −2.5✗ −5.5 | @Missouri State | L 21-24 136 | 1-5 | 0-2 | Pass Collins 260 · Rush Woods III 47 · Rec Gary 135 |
| 8 | Oct 22 | #141 | #54 | +8.5✗ −19.5 | Liberty | L 6-34 130 | 1-6 | 0-3 | Pass Collins 124 · Rush Woods III 38 · Rec Munroe 53 |
| 9 | Oct 28 | #165 | #139 | −1.5✓ +14.5 | @Middle Tennessee | W 44-28 137 | 2-6 | 1-3 | Pass Collins 206 · Rush Woods III 67 · Rec Gary 59 |
| 10 | Nov 7 | #145 | #74 | +1.5 | Delaware | 3 pm ET51% to win | |||
| 11 | Nov 14 | #137 | #194 | @Sam Houston | 2 pm ET64% to win | ||||
| 12 | Nov 21 | Florida International | 3 pm ET54% to win | ||||||
| 13 | Nov 28 | @Western Kentucky | 1 pm ET | ||||||
Win chances are our model for Kennesaw State, through 8 games. This week's game comes from the playoff simulation, later games from the rating model. They are estimates and move every week.
The small line beside each score is the team's win chance through the game, drawn on one scale for every game. The small number is total plays.
Line is the closing point spread for Kennesaw State: a minus number means favored. A green check means the team covered it, by the number beside it. A red cross means it fell short by that much.
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Big plays (IsoPPP) | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 28 | @Middle Tennessee | W 44-28 | 318 | 2 | 19:41 | +0.081 | 39.6% | 1.44 | Most explosive |
| Oct 22 | Liberty | L 6-34 | 297 | 2 | 22:55 | -0.117 | 35.7% | 1.00 | Season-low EPA/play |
| Oct 14 | @Missouri State | L 21-24 | 337 | 0 | 26:24 | +0.091 | 43.1% | 1.05 | One-score loss |
| Oct 7 | Jacksonville State | L 26-27 | 410 | 2 | 30:58 | +0.122 | 40.0% | 1.32 | One-score loss |
| Sep 26 | @Arkansas State | L 14-17 | 326 | 0 | 27:20 | +0.065 | 47.0% | 0.93 | One-score loss |
| Sep 19 | @Tennessee | L 9-42 | 291 | 1 | 30:57 | +0.058 | 36.4% | 0.97 | Defense's roughest night |
| Sep 12 | Georgia State | L 17-31 | 332 | 1 | 22:13 | +0.025 | 39.7% | 1.13 | |
| Sep 3 | West Georgia | W 47-0 | 508 | 2 | 34:06 | +0.289 | 57.3% | 1.14 | Season-high EPA/play |
| Season average (8 games) | 352 | 1.2 | +0.077 | 42.3% | 1.12 | ||||
Kennesaw State's wildest games since 2013: comebacks, long shots, line misses
Median odds across sportsbooks · Nov 4. A number with a minus is the favorite: −130 means $130 wins $100. A plus is the underdog: +170 means $100 wins $170.
What fans said
Real posts about each game (they name the opponent, a player or a play), chosen by community score · usernames not shown
The games that decide the season
Recent form · last 10 games
3-7 over the last 10, and won the last one.
Executional offense was some of the worst I’ve probably ever seen in my coaching career (Thursday)
The open questionwhere does it go from here?
Kennesaw State cusa championship lengthened, from 9.1% to 3.4% (down 5.7 points) between Oct 15 and Oct 16, 2026.
Statusbackground
Range of outcomes · Kennesaw State · 2026
Regular-season wins: chance of each total, from the game chances above
2 wins 5%; 3 wins 23%; 4 wins 38%; 5 wins 27%; 6 wins 7%Bars are the chance of each regular-season win total, from our model's chance in each game left, through 8 games. Paler bars are the outer 10% at each end. The closed row comes from the season-path projection, which also plays out conference title games and the CFP.
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This week and this season
What it is like to watch them2026 · 2-6
Measured from 8 games · ranks are among Conference USA teams the same season
Kennesaw State played its first football game in 2015, fired its only-ever head coach after a 1-8 start in 2024, and one year later won Conference USA outright -- the fastest worst-to-first turnaround most fans have ever seen.
A program that didn't play a single football game before 2015 just won a conference championship, and outsiders are still treating it as a fluke rather than the product of real program-building…
Kennesaw State fielded its first football team in 2015, fired its only-ever head coach Brian Bohannon after a 1-8 start in its first FBS season, hired Jerry Mack, and one year later went 9-3, won Conference USA, and beat Jacksonville State 19-15 in the title game -- before a 41-6 Myrtle Beach Bowl loss to Western Michigan brought the season back to earth.
The program ledger
since 2025Roster and recruiting
Top 1 commits
Top community posts · last 12 months · r/cfb
Fans and ratings
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Each link was checked against two outside sites.
Range of outcomes · Kennesaw State · 2026