The rest of the season
4 of 4 games under 70%, the hardest: Liberty 8%
Win out 1% · expect 1.6 of 4 more wins
Western Kentucky's chance to win each game left, from our model: Middle Tennessee 57%, Jacksonville State 34%, Liberty 8%, Kennesaw State 61%Bar height is our model’s chance in each game left. Dashed line: 50%.
Conference title chance went from 32% to 3%, peaking at 32% before a game
Our model, entering each game. The letter is the result of the game before it.
StandingTied for 3rd in the Conference USA · 2-2 in conference play · All standings
LeadersPassing Brock Glenn 887 · Rushing Brock Glenn 451 · Receiving Jonathan Stafford Jr. 439 All player stats
Updated Wed Nov 4 · through week 9
Follow Western Kentucky:athletics siteConference USAX@WKUSportsInstagram
| Wk | Date | Our rank | Opp rank | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf | Top performers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 5 | #42 | #229 | −1.5✗ −36.5 | @Nevada | L 14-49 140 | 0-1 | 0-0 | Pass Tisdale Jr. 203 · Rush Allen 102 · Rec Flowers 60 |
| 2 | Sep 12 | #47 | #3 | +40.5✗ −9.5 | @Georgia | L 20-70 134 | 0-2 | 0-0 | Pass Glenn 84 · Rush Glenn 70 · Rec Burroughs 29 |
| 3 | Sep 19 | #52 | #10 | +44.5✓ +6.5 | @Indiana | L 0-38 127 | 0-3 | 0-0 | Pass Glenn 120 · Rush Glenn 30 · Rec Ezirim 30 |
| 4 | Sep 26 | #58 | #247 | −39.5✓ +5.5 | Mercyhurst | W 52-7 132 | 1-3 | 0-0 | Pass Tisdale Jr. 309 · Rush Glenn 50 · Rec Johnson 72 |
| 5 | Oct 1 | #70 | #149 | +1.5✗ −19.5 | @New Mexico State | L 13-34 134 | 1-4 | 0-1 | Pass Tisdale Jr. 314 · Rush Glenn 23 · Rec Stafford Jr. 108 |
| 6 | Oct 8 | #89 | #105 | +1.5✓ +22.5 | Missouri State | W 34-13 142 | 2-4 | 1-1 | Pass Glenn 231 · Rush Allen 105 · Rec Stafford Jr. 72 |
| 7 | Oct 14 | #82 | #147 | −1.5✓ +11.5 | @Sam Houston | W 16-3 131 | 3-4 | 2-1 | Pass Glenn 127 · Rush Glenn 54 · Rec Stafford Jr. 37 |
| 8 | Bye week | ||||||||
| 9 | Oct 27 | #80 | #93 | −2.5✗ −16.5 | Delaware | L 21-35 143 | 3-5 | 2-2 | Pass Glenn 224 · Rush Glenn 129 · Rec Barry 80 |
| 10 | Nov 7 | #101 | #167 | −1.5 | @Middle Tennessee | 3:30 pm ET57% to win | |||
| 11 | Nov 14 | #99 | #71 | Jacksonville State | 3:30 pm ET34% to win | ||||
| 12 | Nov 21 | @Liberty | 1 pm ET8% to win | ||||||
| 13 | Nov 28 | Kennesaw State | 1 pm ET | ||||||
Win chances are our model for Western Kentucky, through 8 games. This week's game comes from the playoff simulation, later games from the rating model. They are estimates and move every week.
The small line beside each score is the team's win chance through the game, drawn on one scale for every game. The small number is total plays.
Line is the closing point spread for Western Kentucky: a minus number means favored. A green check means the team covered it, by the number beside it. A red cross means it fell short by that much.
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Big plays (IsoPPP) | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 27 | Delaware | L 21-35 | 477 | 2 | 29:28 | +0.042 | 48.1% | 1.29 | |
| Oct 14 | @Sam Houston | W 16-3 | 276 | 0 | 32:23 | +0.022 | 27.6% | 1.21 | Best defensive stand |
| Oct 8 | Missouri State | W 34-13 | 464 | 0 | 32:16 | +0.327 | 45.5% | 1.28 | |
| Oct 1 | @New Mexico State | L 13-34 | 357 | 1 | 30:25 | -0.209 | 33.3% | 1.22 | |
| Sep 26 | Mercyhurst | W 52-7 | 596 | 1 | 28:33 | +0.533 | 53.0% | 1.57 | Season-high EPA/play |
| Sep 19 | @Indiana | L 0-38 | 186 | 1 | 25:09 | -0.377 | 24.6% | 1.15 | Season-low EPA/play |
| Sep 12 | @Georgia | L 20-70 | 225 | 4 | 31:06 | -0.178 | 27.0% | 1.49 | Blowout loss |
| Sep 5 | @Nevada | L 14-49 | 367 | 2 | 32:33 | +0.066 | 44.0% | 0.90 | Defense's roughest night |
| Season average (8 games) | 368 | 1.4 | +0.028 | 37.9% | 1.26 | ||||
Western Kentucky's wildest games since 2013: comebacks, long shots, line misses
Median odds across sportsbooks · Nov 4. A number with a minus is the favorite: −130 means $130 wins $100. A plus is the underdog: +170 means $100 wins $170.
The games that decide the season
Recent form · last 10 games
4-6 over the last 10, and lost the last one.
They’re a good football team as well, but this is a rivalry game. There’s a lot at stake
Range of outcomes · Western Kentucky · 2026
Regular-season wins: chance of each total, from the game chances above
3 wins 10%; 4 wins 36%; 5 wins 39%; 6 wins 14%Bars are the chance of each regular-season win total, from our model's chance in each game left, through 8 games. Paler bars are the outer 10% at each end. The closed row comes from the season-path projection, which also plays out conference title games and the CFP.
More in this tab
This week and this season
What it is like to watch them2026 · 3-5
Measured from 8 games · ranks are among Conference USA teams the same season
Western Kentucky is the program that just makes a bowl, every year, no drama — seven straight under Tyson Helton, the latest a New Orleans Bowl win, while the rest of the state only watches Lexington.
Hilltopper Nation knows the joke — that people hear 'Kentucky football' and never think of Bowling Green. They say the program that wins eight or nine games like clockwork deserves more than to be…
Western Kentucky · Game-day weather
Typical at Houchens Industries-L.T. Smith Stadium: 7:30 pm Saturdays score 94, noon and 3:30 pm Saturdays 87
Typical weather score at each kickoff time.
Tap a dot to read it.
At kickoff, regular-season Saturdays, 2018 to 2025: 114 at noon, 114 at 3:30 pm, 113 at 7:30 pm. Typical means the average of those Saturdays. It is not a forecast.
Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.
Western Kentucky is the Conference USA program whose Mike Sanford / Jeff Brohm Air Raid eras + 2002 FCS championship + 2024 8-5 bowl eligibility define what historic-Kentucky-football looks like outside Lexington.
Roster and recruiting
Top 1 commits
No high-engagement r/cfb discussions tracked for this program in the last year.
Fans and ratings
Fan mood index · most recent r/CFB data
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Each link was checked against two outside sites.
Range of outcomes · Western Kentucky · 2026