Western Kentucky at Indiana
Western Kentucky (0‑2) travels to Indiana (#4, 2‑0), with Indiana favored by 44. The model gives Indiana a 92% shot.
How they got here
Last two games
Western Kentucky · 0-2
Picked #42 in the preseason · now #52.
Two straight losses, each by 20 or more.
Last two games
Indiana · 2-0
Picked #8 in the preseason · now #9 — about right.
Two straight wins — but still hunting a ranked opponent.
W 55–0 vs Howard #220 of 669
won by 55 as a 57.5-point favorite
W 52–16 vs North Texas #123 of 669
won by 36 as a 40.5-point favorite
What’s at stake
Make the CFP field
Win the conference
Win it all
CFP odds as of September 15, 2026
The series
Indiana leads the series 5-0
5 meetings since 2008 · Indiana has won the last 5
- 2022Indiana 33–30
- 2021Indiana 33–31
- 2015Indiana 38–35
- 2010Indiana 38–21
- 2008Indiana 31–13
Face-off
What each fanbase carries into this one.
Western Kentucky
The chip · vs the national mediaHilltopper Nation knows the joke — that people hear 'Kentucky football' and never think of Bowling Green. They say the program that wins eight or nine games like clockwork deserves more than to be the state's footnote, and they keep the receipts.
Indiana
The chip · vs the national mediaThe same voices who called 2024 a fluke and 2025 a soft schedule are still waiting for Indiana to fall back to earth. Cignetti's answer — roughly, 'I win, look it up' — became the fanbase's whole posture.
What this game touches
A century as the Big Ten's football afterthought. From 1887 to 2023 Indiana had never won 11 games or reached the playoff; the football program was a punchline at a basketball blue blood. Cignetti inverted it in two seasons — but the long irrelevance is the backdrop every win is still measured against.
Best players
Western Kentucky
- Kennon Loftin (LB) · 24 tackles
- Marvin Sims (WR) · 211 receiving yards
- Eli Jones (LB) · 17 tackles
Indiana
- Isaiah Jones (LB) · 17 tackles
- Keishaun Calhoun (DL) · 2 sacks
- Charlie Becker (WR) · 145 receiving yards — Heisman odds: 59th (+10000)
The line, and the room
Western Kentucky fans are feeling better about their season (98th percentile) than Indiana fans are (52nd) — even with Indiana favored here.
Home −44 · O/U 59.5
Conditions
92°F · 4 mph wind
Indiana is worth +4.6 points (±5.2) more at home than on the road since 2018 — middle of FBS, 63rd percentile.
60% at home, 44% on the road against FBS opponents (27–18 home, 17–22 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +0.4 at home vs. away over 72 games — inside the ±6.7 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
The visitors travel about 152 miles to get here.
Recent games
Indiana
- Wk 1Wvs North Texas52-16
- Wk 2Wvs Howard55-0
Western Kentucky
- Wk 1Lat Nevada14-49
- Wk 2Lat Georgia20-70