garbage timethis cycle~attributednew
Caleb Ramseur does NOT see a usage spike in garbage time -- his workload holds steady regardless of score.
our readbackground
Nevada
1-1Mountain West · Jeff Choate, year 3 (7-20) · Mackay Stadium · 27,000 · 20,541 avg in 2026
The nationunrankedAP / Coaches
The model#134 CFB ZeitgeistSP+ #87 (-6.1) · FPI #88
The marketNevada by 3.5at Middle Tennessee · our model 28% Nevada · a number, not a pick
LastL 7–20 vs Montana State · Sat Sep 12 · EJ Smith 1 sacks, 2 TFL, 10 tackles
Nextat Middle Tennessee · Sat Sep 19 · 7 pm ET · Johnny "Red" Floyd Stadium · Nevada by 3.5 · series 0-1 · Game preview
Updated Tue Sep 15 · through week 2
Nevada · 2026 schedule & results1-1
| Wk | Date | Us | Opp | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 6 | #229 | #42 | +1.5✓ | Western Kentucky | W 49–14 140 | 1-0 | 0-0 |
| 2 | Sep 13 | #204 | #92 | +4.5✗ | Montana State | L 7–20 134 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| 3 | Sep 19 | #176 | #129 | -3.5 | @Middle Tennessee | |||
| 4 | Sep 26 | #171 | #79 | Air Force | ||||
| 6 | Oct 10 | @UTEP | ||||||
| 7 | Oct 17 | @North Dakota State | ||||||
| 8 | Oct 24 | San José State | ||||||
| 9 | Oct 31 | @UCLA | ||||||
| 10 | Nov 7 | New Mexico | ||||||
| 11 | Nov 14 | @Northern Illinois | ||||||
| 12 | Nov 21 | Hawai'i | ||||||
| 13 | Nov 29 | @UNLV |
Advanced box score (EPA, success rate, explosiveness)▼
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Explosive% | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 13 | Montana State | L 7–20 | 349 | 4 | 27:18 | -0.083 | 38.9% | 98.4% | |
| Sep 6 | Western Kentucky | W 49–14 | 486 | 1 | 27:27 | +0.556 | 50.8% | 165.0% | |
| Season average (2 games) | 418 | 2.5 | +0.237 | 44.9% | 131.7% | ||||
Verdict Begins·Live
Nevada is the program that invented the Pistol offense in Reno and handed it to the whole sport — then watched everyone run its idea while the Wolf Pack itself slid back to the bottom of the Mountain West.
Standard GapA 13-win 2010 season, an AP top-15 finish, and an offense that changed f…
Fans point out that half of college football borrowed the Pistol from a chalkboard in Reno, and that nobody outside the Mountain West remembers the offense was theirs — or that they once put a future…
low signal
The season in chapters
Ahead
What fans said
Nevada fans
Nevada fans
Real posts from the day of the game, chosen by community score · usernames not shown
What it is like to watch them2025 · 3-9 · last season
Game feel45even gamescombined pts / game9th highest-scoring of 12 in the Mountain West
Heart rate2-3some dramain one-score games (5 of 12)4th most one-score games of 12 in the Mountain West
Margin-9.9outgunnedavg scoring margin10th best margin of 12 in the Mountain West
Tempo60methodicaloffensive plays / game12th fastest of 12 in the Mountain West
Big plays1.21grind it outexplosiveness (IsoPPP)10th most explosive of 12 in the Mountain West
Home crowd17,867avg attendance10th biggest crowds of 12 in the Mountain West
✓ measured from 12 games · ranks are among Mountain West teams the same season
Recent form · last 10 games · incl. 2025
Nevada has won three of its last five.
Mixed. 3-7 over the last 10, and lost the last one.
Streak L1Last 5 · 3-2Last 10 · 3-7
I don’t care what sport you play, when you have people behind you, that is the home-field advantage
The forecast
Next Sep 19
vs Middle Tennessee · away
PoorPoorBend-don't-break
~ our read on style
Market outlook
Season expectations
CFP championship#120 in field+100000
Mountain West title#6 in market+1600
Sportsbook consensus · best odds across multiple books · 2026-09-14
Nevada · the story right now
5 storylines developing
What Nevada's offseason is really about
the open questionwhere does it go from here?
garbage time2025 cycle~attributednew
Herschel Turner: a garbage time merchant signal screened this season.
our readbackground
deep threat2025 cycle~attributednew
Jett Carpenter is used almost exclusively underneath -- a low share of his targets are downfield shots.
our readbackground
garbage time2025 cycle~attributednew
Marcus Bellon: a garbage time merchant signal screened this season.
our readbackground
program_outlook2025 cycle~readnew
Nevada enters 2025 at No. 116 in SP+ — a 13-spot drop under Jeff Choate raises one question: can Reno’s identity survive this much talent erosion?
what happenedNevada enters 2025 rated No. 116 in SP+ (-13.4). ✓ fact
our readbackground
How past storylines here turned out
Died downNevada's offensive coordinator change has died down — no clear next chapter yet.
AnsweredNevada's head-coaching hire held for another season.
Died downNevada's defensive coordinator change has died down — no clear next chapter yet.
Outcome band · Nevada · 2026
Outcome band · Nevada · 2026Nevada's most likely season is 5-7 — no postseason. The floor is 3-9; the ceiling is 8-5.
Floor 3-9Ceiling 8-5Base 5-7
0 wins13 wins
Floor3-9No postseason, 2 fewer wins.
Base5-7No postseason.
Ceiling8-5A bowl game.
Floor, base and ceiling come from the season-path projection, which plays out conference title games and the CFP — so a ceiling can run past 12 games.
How the room reacted
Following now · Nevada · Season outlook Confidence
Nevada enters the season in the middle of the pack. That's the whole tension.
Nevada enters 2026 rated No. 116 in 2025 SP+ (-13.4). SP+ describes what the program HAS done, not what it will do. The season is the field test. The preview consensus leans in — but preseason ratings reward the recent past, not the season ahead.
near-unanimous belief
where the takes land · dot = how loud
DOUBTBELIEF
Believers7 bull takes
💬 fans: 12% volume
The saga so far4 weeks old
2 weeks agoNevada releases two-deep depth chart — Reported
3 weeks agoNevada to name starting QB — Reported
CFB Zeitgeist Read · our take
Nevada enters 2026 — the 3-9 record and 119th talent rank highlight a program that hasn't been this low since the early 2000s, and Choate's second season is the first.
Next · what to watch
The non-obvious read on this rating isn't the number — it's the schedule. A team at this level has 2-3 games where the model says they're overmatched, and those are the games that define the narrative. Watch whether the model holds through the first month of the schedule.
Source of record: Nevada enters 2026 rated No. 116 in 2025 SP+ (-13.4).
How each room is reacting — tap to expand
📣Believers7 bullish items -- the case it's working.›
The 'the projection is underselling us' read -- fans betting the season beats the preview number.
“Nevada falls 20-7 to reigning FCS champion Montana State”
Nevada Sports Net · 2026-09-13 · read ↗
“Recap: Turnovers lead No. 1 Bobcats to win at FBS Nevada”
406 Sports · 2026-09-14 · read ↗
“Bobcats drill Nevada, continue to affirm place among best in the West in college football”
Skyline Sports · 2026-09-14 · read ↗
🧐SkepticsNo prominent dissent — the coverage runs one way.›
The 'the model has seen the tape' counter -- efficiency ratings reward what a program has actually done, not hope.
Nothing in our corpus yet — this door stays open for when there is.
💬The boards12% of recent board volume — the fanbase is locked in.›
This event was in 54 of 436 board posts (12%) over the last 60 days — a fanbase consumed by it. Fan text shown verbatim, attributed to the community not the individual poster.
"NevadaPath.com is an unofficial course planning resource for UNR that’s being revived after a long hiatus. It’s meant to make it easier to browse courses, compare historical grade"
r/unr ~ fan take
"Recently, it has come to my attention that UNR needs to do better with educating certain parts of the school community. You see, certain people on campus have outdated beliefs abou"
r/unr ~ fan take
The boards ≠ the fanbase: a vocal, self-selected slice.
Following now · Nevada · Season outlook Confidence
Nevada enters the season in the middle of the pack. That's the whole tension.
Nevada enters 2025 rated No. 116 in SP+ (-13.4). SP+ describes what the program HAS done, not what it will do. The season is the field test. The preview consensus leans in — but preseason ratings reward the recent past, not the season ahead.
near-unanimous belief
where the takes land · dot = how loud
DOUBTBELIEF
Believers7 bull takes
💬 fans: 12% volume
The saga so far4 weeks old
2 weeks agoNevada releases two-deep depth chart — Reported
3 weeks agoNevada to name starting QB — Reported
CFB Zeitgeist Read · our take
Nevada enters 2025 at No. 116 in SP+ — a 13-spot drop under Jeff Choate raises one question: can Reno’s identity survive this much talent erosion?
Next · what to watch
The non-obvious read on this rating isn't the number — it's the schedule. A team at this level has 2-3 games where the model says they're overmatched, and those are the games that define the narrative. Watch whether the model holds through the first month of the schedule.
Source of record: Nevada enters 2025 rated No. 116 in SP+ (-13.4).
How each room is reacting — tap to expand
📣Believers7 bullish items -- the case it's working.›
The 'the projection is underselling us' read -- fans betting the season beats the preview number.
“Nevada falls 20-7 to reigning FCS champion Montana State”
Nevada Sports Net · 2026-09-13 · read ↗
“Recap: Turnovers lead No. 1 Bobcats to win at FBS Nevada”
406 Sports · 2026-09-14 · read ↗
“Bobcats drill Nevada, continue to affirm place among best in the West in college football”
Skyline Sports · 2026-09-14 · read ↗
🧐SkepticsNo prominent dissent — the coverage runs one way.›
The 'the model has seen the tape' counter -- efficiency ratings reward what a program has actually done, not hope.
Nothing in our corpus yet — this door stays open for when there is.
💬The boards12% of recent board volume — the fanbase is locked in.›
This event was in 54 of 436 board posts (12%) over the last 60 days — a fanbase consumed by it. Fan text shown verbatim, attributed to the community not the individual poster.
"NevadaPath.com is an unofficial course planning resource for UNR that’s being revived after a long hiatus. It’s meant to make it easier to browse courses, compare historical grade"
r/unr ~ fan take
"Recently, it has come to my attention that UNR needs to do better with educating certain parts of the school community. You see, certain people on campus have outdated beliefs abou"
r/unr ~ fan take
The boards ≠ the fanbase: a vocal, self-selected slice.
Rival pulse
UNLV
Uneasy-12
Battle for the Fremont Cannon
Fan mood index · most recent r/cfb data
More in this tab
Game day
The experience
Nevada is the Mountain West program whose Chris Ault Pistol-offense invention + Colin Kaepernick 2008-2010 + Mackay Stadium altitude define what Reno-Wolf-Pack-football looks like.
Offense: PoorDefense: PoorDefensive shape: Bend-don't-break
Open questions
The story
Roster
Roster Reload - Nevada
2026 snapshot - 2026-09-15Returning Production36%Low continuity / heavy reload
Talent Composite#118 nationally247 composite 550.0
Portal Additions14Primary repair: CB
Portal Losses21Primary pressure: LB
Draft Loss0No NFL Draft departures recorded
Recruiting Reload#98Depth class
EDGEin 1 - Brandon Amaniampongout 2 - Jonathan MaldonadoDowngrade
current room: 239 lbs avg (2025 roster)
Full roster (107 players)
UNKZion Jones
DBAiden Walker, Bishop Turner, Brock Wattenbarger, Bryson Snelling, Cooper Wilson, Coy Jones, Cutter Vorhees, Dorsey Sanders, Isaiah Jordan, Jaylen Webb, Joey Thomas III, Joshua Scott, Justin Wyatt Jr., Larry Turner-Gooden, Michael Hunt, Mykel Ford, Selman Bridges, Tajean Stallworth, Zavien Abercrombie, Zion Jones
EDGEBrandon Amaniampong, Chris Kalu, Craig Statler, Dylan Labarbera, Jack MacKinnon, Kameron Brown, Keegan Perea, Matt Perez, Myles Williams, Sam Davidson IV, Tanner Gray
LBAlosio Maluia, CJ Mooring, Cody Wells, Colson Kermode, EJ Smith, Isaiah Reed, Jake Silverman, Jaxon Cannida, Jeremy Naborne, Jeremy Naborne-Owens, Poasa Utu
OLAnthony Hastings, Colin Banning, Colton Hogge, Elias Justice, Ethan Lowell, Ethan Newman, Henry Sellards, Jack Foster, Jackson Ramsey, Jacob Norcross, Jose Balver-Mendoza, Mataio Aiono, Max Zuro, Snoop Leota-Amaama, Terrence Johnson, Tyler Miller, Zach Cochnauer
RBBronwyn Rios, Carter Jackson, Dominic Kelley, Herschel Turner, Janerious Jackson, Ky Woods, Mekai Smith
Offseason moves
The Offseason Ledger · Nevada
4 verified updates · portal · recruiting · staff · news- News
Nevada to name starting QB
QB battle settled heading into fall camp — in a 2026 cycle where Nevada is punching above its #98 class rank, Choate needs a settled signal-caller before the depth at LB and elsewhere gets stress-tested for real.
- News
Nevada releases two-deep depth chart
Two-deep out with LB depth still thin and a class ranked 98th — Choate's roster construction is on paper now, and the pressure spots are harder to hide.
- Coaching
Nathan Pine fired
Firing your DC mid-cycle when you're ranked #88 in class and leaning on LB depth says Choate isn't coasting into year two — Pine's exit is a pressure valve, not a housecleaning.
- Portal
Nevada QB Thatcher transfers to Oregon State
Choate loses his QB room's most experienced piece to a P4 program still rebuilding — Oregon State gets a Mountain West starter with something left to prove, Nevada gets a roster question it didn't need during an 88th-ranked class cycle.
Who's moved
Transfer portal snapshot
-3.4 net portal points
(raw ledger: -21.5 — unweighted, no position adjustment)RB-7.0
starter risk
CB+6.8
LB-6.5
starter risk
OT-6.2
EDGE-3.7
TE-3.5
low confidence
WR+1.6
DL-1.5
IOL-1.5
K-1.0
low confidence
S+0.5
QB+0.5
Top commits
Top 3 commits
2026 class
★★★☆☆
Perrion Williams
#1211 national
★★★☆☆
Janerious Jackson
#56 national
★★★☆☆
Joey Thomas III
#1654 national
Where they're from
Recruiting Footprint · 2026
Recruiting Footprint · 2026
27
NV · 10CA · 8WA · 4TX · 2CO · 1GA · 1OR · 1
NV leads the 2026 class with 10 commits. National footprint reaching 7 states.
Where they recruit · 2023-2026
97 signees across 17 states, 2023-2026. CA leads the pull.
Miles from home
Miles from home · 2026 roster
The median Nevada player grew up 389 miles from campus.
Half this roster came from closer than that; half came from farther.
47th-farthest from home in FBS
of 135 ranked →
Closest to homeFarthest from home
Middle 50%146–786 miquartile spread
Within 100 mi19%19 of 101 players
Farthest2,566 miAJ Bianco · Honolulu, HI
Closest1 miMarshaun Brown · Reno, NV
Straight-line distance from each player's listed hometown to Mackay Stadium. Hometowns are placed at city-centroid precision, not street address — fine at this scale, but a player's true door-to-door number can differ by a few miles. 101 of 107 listed players have a geocoded hometown. Source: CFBD roster hometowns.
Recruiting buzz
r/cfb this year
[Postgame Thread] WKU Defeats Nevada 31-16
Top community posts · last 12 months · r/cfb
How it turned out
Belief history
↓
Fan confidence at its lowest on record
1st percentile among FBS programs
Fans vs. market
Fan vs. market↓
1st
Fan percentile
(FBS mood rank)
(FBS mood rank)
5.5
Vegas O/U wins
(26th among FBS)
(26th among FBS)
Market 25pp more optimistic than fan mood
Win total consensus · 1 book
Penalties
Penalty battle
Winning the penalty battle: 13 penalties committed vs. 19 drawn on opponents, a 58-yard edge.
126 penalty yards committed vs. 184 drawn on opponents, 2026 season total.
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