The rest of the season
4 of 4 games under 70%, the hardest: UNLV 28%
Win out 3% · expect 1.7 of 4 more wins
Nevada's chance to win each game left, from our model: New Mexico 33%, Northern Illinois 65%, Hawai'i 44%, UNLV 28%Bar height is our model’s chance in each game left. Dashed line: 50%.
Bowl chance went from 25% to 18%, peaking at 58% before a game
Our model, entering each game. The letter is the result of the game before it.
Standing6th in the Mountain West · 2-2 in conference play · All standings
LeadersPassing Carter Jones 654 · Rushing Dominic Kelley 588 · Receiving Gary Givens III 305 All player stats
Updated Wed Nov 4 · through week 9
Follow Nevada:athletics siteMountain WestXInstagram
| Wk | Date | Our rank | Opp rank | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf | Top performers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 5 | #229 | #42 | +1.5✓ +36.5 | Western Kentucky | W 49-14 140 | 1-0 | 0-0 | Pass Jones 163 · Rush Kelley 152 · Rec Givens III 83 |
| 2 | Sep 12 | #203 | #92 | +4.5✗ −8.5 | Montana State | L 7-20 134 | 1-1 | 0-0 | Pass Bianco 116 · Rush Kelley 84 · Rec Brown 44 |
| 3 | Sep 19 | #176 | #128 | −3.5✗ −10.5 | @Middle Tennessee | L 20-27 126 | 1-2 | 0-0 | Pass Jones 185 · Rush Kelley 45 · Rec Moun 60 |
| 4 | Sep 26 | #182 | #87 | +4.5✓ +1.5 | Air Force | L 33-36 149 | 1-3 | 0-1 | Pass Jones 224 · Rush Turner 111 · Rec Cheers 50 |
| 5 | Bye week | ||||||||
| 6 | Oct 10 | #177 | #219 | −10✓ +7 | @UTEP | W 30-13 124 | 2-3 | 1-1 | Pass Jones 82 · Rush Turner 192 · Rec Givens III 46 |
| 7 | Oct 17 | #169 | #54 | +14.5✓ +0.5 | @North Dakota State | L 17-31 127 | 2-4 | 1-2 | Pass Bianco 190 · Rush Kelley 60 · Rec Givens III 50 |
| 8 | Oct 24 | #154 | #128 | −6✓ +9 | San José State | W 28-13 130 | 3-4 | 2-2 | Pass Duncan 178 · Rush Kelley 82 · Rec Brown 52 |
| 9 | Oct 31 | #146 | #20 | +22.5✗ −4.5 | @UCLA | L 0-27 118 Firestorm | 3-5 | 2-2 | Pass Bianco 71 · Rush Turner 28 · Rec Brown 51 |
| 10 | Nov 6 | #156 | #53 | +9.5 | New Mexico | 9 pm ET · CBS Sports Network33% to win | |||
| 11 | Nov 14 | #164 | #193 | @Northern Illinois | time TBA65% to win | ||||
| 12 | Nov 21 | Hawai'i | time TBA44% to win | ||||||
| 13 | Nov 28 | @UNLV | 9 pm ET · CBS Sports Network | ||||||
Win chances are our model for Nevada, through 8 games. This week's game comes from the playoff simulation, later games from the rating model. They are estimates and move every week.
The small line beside each score is the team's win chance through the game, drawn on one scale for every game. The small number is total plays.
Line is the closing point spread for Nevada: a minus number means favored. A green check means the team covered it, by the number beside it. A red cross means it fell short by that much.
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Big plays (IsoPPP) | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31 | @UCLA | L 0-27 | 176 | 4 | 30:44 | -0.391 | 21.3% | 1.59 | Season-low EPA/play |
| Oct 24 | San José State | W 28-13 | 324 | 1 | 38:18 | +0.036 | 44.7% | 0.99 | Best defensive stand |
| Oct 17 | @North Dakota State | L 17-31 | 286 | 2 | 21:51 | -0.061 | 29.3% | 1.67 | Most explosive |
| Oct 10 | @UTEP | W 30-13 | 376 | 1 | 35:26 | +0.133 | 44.6% | 1.11 | |
| Sep 26 | Air Force | L 33-36 | 411 | 0 | 23:56 | +0.136 | 40.3% | 1.31 | Defense's roughest night |
| Sep 19 | @Middle Tennessee | L 20-27 | 263 | 3 | 25:32 | -0.028 | 36.2% | 1.18 | One-score loss |
| Sep 12 | Montana State | L 7-20 | 349 | 4 | 27:18 | -0.180 | 38.9% | 0.98 | |
| Sep 5 | Western Kentucky | W 49-14 | 486 | 1 | 27:27 | +0.556 | 50.8% | 1.65 | Season-high EPA/play |
| Season average (8 games) | 334 | 2.0 | +0.025 | 38.3% | 1.31 | ||||
Nevada's wildest games since 2013: comebacks, long shots, line misses
Median odds across sportsbooks · Nov 4. A number with a minus is the favorite: −130 means $130 wins $100. A plus is the underdog: +170 means $100 wins $170.
What fans said
Real posts about each game (they name the opponent, a player or a play), chosen by community score · usernames not shown
The games that decide the season
Recent form · last 10 games
4-6 over the last 10, and lost the last one.
I just feel like I’m the voice of the defense right now… It’s just like I’m not really a talker. I’m more of a doer.
Range of outcomes · Nevada · 2026
Regular-season wins: chance of each total, from the game chances above
3 wins 9%; 4 wins 33%; 5 wins 38%; 6 wins 17%; 7 wins 3%Bars are the chance of each regular-season win total, from our model's chance in each game left, through 8 games. Paler bars are the outer 10% at each end. The closed row comes from the season-path projection, which also plays out conference title games and the CFP.
More in this tab
This week and this season
What it is like to watch them2026 · 3-5
Measured from 8 games · ranks are among Mountain West teams the same season
Nevada is the program that invented the Pistol offense in Reno and handed it to the whole sport — then watched everyone run its idea while the Wolf Pack itself slid back to the bottom of the Mountain West.
Fans point out that half of college football borrowed the Pistol from a chalkboard in Reno, and that nobody outside the Mountain West remembers the offense was theirs — or that they once put a…
Nevada · Game-day weather
Typical at Mackay Stadium: kickoff time makes little difference, scores run 86 to 90
Typical weather score at each kickoff time.
Tap a dot to read it.
At kickoff, regular-season Saturdays, 2018 to 2025: 106 at noon, 106 at 3:30 pm, 99 at 7:30 pm. Typical means the average of those Saturdays. It is not a forecast.
Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.
Nevada is the Mountain West program whose Chris Ault Pistol-offense invention + Colin Kaepernick 2008-2010 + Mackay Stadium altitude define what Reno-Wolf-Pack-football looks like.
Roster and recruiting
Top 1 commits
No high-engagement r/cfb discussions tracked for this program in the last year.
Fans and ratings
Fan confidence a bit lower than recent years
52nd percentile among FBS programs
Fan mood index · most recent r/CFB data
More
Each link was checked against two outside sites.
Range of outcomes · Nevada · 2026