Mountain West · Timmy Chang, year 5 (23-31) · Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex · 15,194 · 13,959 avg in 2026
LastW 29–19 vs New Mexico State · Sat Sep 12 · Elijah Palmer 1 sacks, 2 TFL, 5 tackles
Nextat Wyoming · Sat Sep 26 · 3 pm ET · War Memorial Stadium · series 12-17 · Game preview
Updated Tue Sep 15 · through week 2
| Wk | Date | Us | Opp | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aug 29 | #59 | #97 | +5✗ | @Stanford | L 27–37 145 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| 1 | Sep 6 | #59 | #91 | +2.5✗ | UNLV | L 6–21 137 | 0-2 | 0-1 |
| 2 | Sep 13 | #62 | #148 | -7.5✓ | New Mexico State | W 29–19 138 | 1-2 | 0-1 |
| 4 | Sep 26 | #77 | #131 | @Wyoming | ||||
| 5 | Oct 4 | San José State | ||||||
| 6 | Oct 10 | @Arizona State | ||||||
| 7 | Oct 17 | New Mexico | ||||||
| 8 | Oct 24 | @Northern Illinois | ||||||
| 10 | Nov 7 | @UTEP | ||||||
| 11 | Nov 15 | North Dakota State | ||||||
| 12 | Nov 21 | @Nevada | ||||||
| 13 | Nov 29 | Sacramento State |
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Explosive% | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 13 | New Mexico State | W 29–19 | 420 | 1 | 32:13 | +0.133 | 43.4% | 101.0% | Season-high EPA/play |
| Sep 6 | UNLV | L 6–21 | 294 | 1 | 32:05 | -0.061 | 33.3% | 125.0% | Season-low EPA/play |
| Aug 29 | @Stanford | L 27–37 | 322 | 1 | 29:06 | +0.049 | 35.5% | 126.5% | Most explosive |
| Season average (3 games) | 345 | 1.0 | +0.040 | 37.4% | 117.5% | ||||
Hawai'i is the only major-college team an entire ocean of islands calls its own — the program that perfected the Run-and-Shoot, crashed the 2008 Sugar Bowl, and asks every visitor to fly six hours and play a different climate.
Warrior fans are sick of being the road trip nobody wants and the time zone nobody watches — a program that has to win twice as convincingly to get half the respect, and knows the mainland forgets it…
The season in chapters
What fans said
Real posts from the day of the game, chosen by community score · usernames not shown
What it is like to watch them2025 · 9-4 · last season
✓ measured from 13 games · ranks are among Mountain West teams the same season
Recent form · last 10 games · incl. 2025
Mixed. 6-4 over the last 10, and won the last one.
We’re seeing a bigger flood of TCU money on the spread. And then TCU moneyline on the parlays
Next Sep 26
vs Wyoming · away
~ our read on style
Market outlook
Sportsbook consensus · best odds across multiple books · 2026-09-14
the open questionwhere does it go from here?
Hawai'i Mountain West championship odds lengthened — implied probability moved from 20.0% to 6.5% (-13.6pp) between Sep 9 and Sep 10, 2026 (tier C).
our readdeveloping
Jackson Harris is a legitimate money-down target -- his 3rd-down conversion rate ranks among the position's best, and his per-target value holds up in that spot too.
our readdeveloping
Pofele Ashlock is a legitimate money-down target -- his 3rd-down conversion rate ranks among the position's best, and his per-target value holds up in that spot too.
our readdeveloping
Jackson Harris is a real deep-ball threat -- a high share of his targets come on throws past the sticks.
our readbackground
Hawai'i leaped 39 spots in SP+ — Timmy Chang's 4th season opens with a ceiling no MW program has touched since Jones' 2007 run.
our readbackground
Hawai'i leaped 39 spots in SP+ — the 9-4 record and June Jones-era identity raise the question of whether this program can sustain its newfound momentum in the Mountain West.
our readbackground
Outcome band · Hawai'i · 2026
Floor, base and ceiling come from the season-path projection, which plays out conference title games and the CFP — so a ceiling can run past 12 games.
Hawai'i enters 2025 rated No. 68 in SP+ (+1.7), up 39 spots from 2024. One of the bigger model jumps in the country — the tape moved faster than the consensus noticed. The preview consensus leans in — but preseason ratings reward the recent past, not the season ahead.
The 'the projection is underselling us' read -- fans betting the season beats the preview number.
The 'the model has seen the tape' counter -- efficiency ratings reward what a program has actually done, not hope.
Nothing in our corpus yet — this door stays open for when there is.
This event was in 350 of 864 board posts (41%) over the last 60 days — a fanbase consumed by it. Fan text shown verbatim, attributed to the community not the individual poster.
Board health this week (75 posts): 20% positive · 45% neutral · 35% negative. Team-level weekly mood — not specific to this event. The boards ≠ the fanbase: a self-selected vocal slice.
Fan mood index · most recent r/cfb data
More in this tab
Hawai'i is the Mountain West program whose June Jones Run-and-Shoot 2007 12-1 + Aloha Stadium / Ching Athletic Complex + 25-hour-flight visiting-team disorientation define what Pacific-island-football looks like.
Mountain West title odds: +400 → +1450 (▼13.5pp implied)
Mountain west title odds dropped 13.5pp without an obvious public catalyst.
Mountain West title odds: +1350 → +400 (▲13.1pp implied)
Mountain west title odds improved 13.1pp without an obvious public catalyst.
Mountain West title odds: +700 → +1250 (▼5.1pp implied)
Mountain west title odds dropped 5.1pp without an obvious public catalyst.
Top 3 commits
Recruiting Footprint · 2026
HI leads the 2026 class with 6 commits. National footprint reaching 7 states.
Where they recruit · 2023-2026
79 signees across 15 states, 2023-2026. HI leads the pull.
That is 31.2% of every high-school FBS signee HI produced over those cycles — the biggest share any program takes — California is next. The full map →
Miles from home · 2026 roster
The median Hawai'i player grew up 2,397 miles from campus.
Half this roster came from closer than that; half came from farther.
Straight-line distance from each player's listed hometown to Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex. Hometowns are placed at city-centroid precision, not street address — fine at this scale, but a player's true door-to-door number can differ by a few miles. 99 of 111 listed players have a geocoded hometown. Source: CFBD roster hometowns.
No high-engagement r/cfb discussions tracked for this program in the last year.
Fan confidence in a typical range for this program right now
43rd percentile among FBS programs
13% of tipped/broken-up passes have turned into picks — below the ~18% league average, and due for more.
2 interceptions of 15 disrupted passes (13 deflected, 2 intercepted), 2026 only.
17 penalties committed, 19 drawn on opponents — netting a 31-yard field-position edge.
127 penalty yards committed vs. 158 drawn on opponents, 2026 season total.
Outcome band · Hawai'i · 2026
Recruiting Footprint · 2026