The rest of the season
Three real tests left: North Dakota State 28%, Nevada 56%, UTEP 65%
Win out 8% · expect 2.3 of 4 more wins
Hawai'i's chance to win each game left, from our model: UTEP 65%, North Dakota State 28%, Nevada 56%, Sacramento State 81%Bar height is our model’s chance in each game left. Dashed line: 50%.
Bowl chance went from 78% to 13%, peaking at 78% before a game
Our model, entering each game. The letter is the result of the game before it.
Standing8th in the Mountain West · 1-4 in conference play · All standings
LeadersPassing Micah Alejado 2,186 · Rushing Devon Rice 385 · Receiving Kainoa Carvalho 399 All player stats
Updated Wed Nov 4 · through week 8
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| Wk | Date | Our rank | Opp rank | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf | Top performers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aug 29 | #59 | #97 | +4.5✗ −5.5 | @Stanford | L 27-37 145 Loud | 0-1 | 0-0 | Pass Alejado 272 · Rush Rice 35 · Rec Carvalho 72 |
| 1 | Sep 5 | #59 | #91 | +2.5✗ −12.5 | UNLV | L 6-21 137 Firestorm | 0-2 | 0-1 | Pass Alejado 176 · Rush Rice 73 · Rec Rice 27 |
| 2 | Sep 12 | #62 | #148 | −7.5✓ +2.5 | New Mexico State | W 29-19 138 | 1-2 | 0-1 | Pass Alejado 346 · Rush Rice 59 · Rec Uiliata 107 |
| 3 | Bye week | ||||||||
| 4 | Sep 26 | #79 | #136 | −2.5✗ −19.5 | @Wyoming | L 10-27 128 | 1-3 | 0-2 | Pass Alejado 226 · Rush Rice 75 · Rec Uiliata 39 |
| 5 | Oct 3 | #99 | #140 | −2.5✗ −6.5 | San José State | L 16-20 125 | 1-4 | 0-3 | Pass Alejado 341 · Rush Alejado 36 · Rec Alves 121 |
| 6 | Oct 10 | #115 | #65 | +20.5✓ +2.5 | @Arizona State | L 12-30 134 | 1-5 | 0-3 | Pass Alejado 252 · Rush Rice 28 · Rec Carvalho 86 |
| 7 | Oct 17 | #130 | #49 | +14.5✓ +3.5 | New Mexico | L 10-21 126 | 1-6 | 0-4 | Pass Alejado 250 · Rush Barfield 34 · Rec Alves 76 |
| 8 | Oct 24 | #137 | #170 | −3✓ +32 | @Northern Illinois | W 56-21 126 | 2-6 | 1-4 | Pass Alejado 323 · Rush Rice 71 · Rec Harris 90 |
| 9 | Bye week | ||||||||
| 10 | Nov 7 | #115 | #241 | −9.5 | @UTEP | 9:30 pm ET · FS165% to win | |||
| 11 | Nov 14 | #109 | #62 | North Dakota State | 11:59 pm ET · The CW28% to win | ||||
| 12 | Nov 21 | @Nevada | time TBA56% to win | ||||||
| 13 | Nov 29 | Sacramento State | time TBA | ||||||
Win chances are our model for Hawai'i, through 8 games. This week's game comes from the playoff simulation, later games from the rating model. They are estimates and move every week.
The small line beside each score is the team's win chance through the game, drawn on one scale for every game. The small number is total plays.
Line is the closing point spread for Hawai'i: a minus number means favored. A green check means the team covered it, by the number beside it. A red cross means it fell short by that much.
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Big plays (IsoPPP) | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24 | @Northern Illinois | W 56-21 | 504 | 1 | 37:44 | +0.399 | 53.9% | 1.24 | Season-high EPA/play |
| Oct 17 | New Mexico | L 10-21 | 298 | 2 | 28:04 | -0.055 | 37.3% | 1.07 | |
| Oct 10 | @Arizona State | L 12-30 | 316 | 1 | 31:17 | -0.084 | 39.5% | 1.06 | Season-low EPA/play |
| Oct 3 | San José State | L 16-20 | 438 | 2 | 30:01 | +0.013 | 41.5% | 1.21 | One-score loss |
| Sep 26 | @Wyoming | L 10-27 | 328 | 0 | 27:57 | +0.071 | 41.8% | 1.01 | Defense's roughest night |
| Sep 12 | New Mexico State | W 29-19 | 420 | 1 | 32:13 | +0.133 | 43.4% | 1.01 | Best defensive stand |
| Sep 5 | UNLV | L 6-21 | 294 | 1 | 32:05 | -0.061 | 33.3% | 1.25 | |
| Aug 29 | @Stanford | L 27-37 | 322 | 1 | 29:06 | +0.049 | 35.5% | 1.26 | Most explosive |
| Season average (8 games) | 365 | 1.1 | +0.058 | 40.8% | 1.14 | ||||
Hawai'i's wildest games since 2013: comebacks, long shots, line misses
Median odds across sportsbooks · Nov 4. A number with a minus is the favorite: −130 means $130 wins $100. A plus is the underdog: +170 means $100 wins $170.
What fans said
Real posts about each game (they name the opponent, a player or a play), chosen by community score · usernames not shown
The games that decide the season
Recent form · last 10 games
4-6 over the last 10, and won the last one.
Range of outcomes · Hawai'i · 2026
Regular-season wins: chance of each total, from the game chances above
2 wins 2%; 3 wins 16%; 4 wins 39%; 5 wins 34%; 6 wins 8%Bars are the chance of each regular-season win total, from our model's chance in each game left, through 8 games. Paler bars are the outer 10% at each end. The closed row comes from the season-path projection, which also plays out conference title games and the CFP.
More in this tab
This week and this season
What it is like to watch them2026 · 2-6
Measured from 8 games · ranks are among Mountain West teams the same season
Hawai'i is the only major-college team an entire ocean of islands calls its own — the program that perfected the Run-and-Shoot, crashed the 2008 Sugar Bowl, and asks every visitor to fly six hours and play a different climate.
Warrior fans are sick of being the road trip nobody wants and the time zone nobody watches — a program that has to win twice as convincingly to get half the respect, and knows the mainland forgets…
Hawai'i is the Mountain West program whose June Jones Run-and-Shoot 2007 12-1 + Aloha Stadium / Ching Athletic Complex + 25-hour-flight visiting-team disorientation define what Pacific-island-football looks like.
Roster and recruiting
Top 1 commits
No high-engagement r/cfb discussions tracked for this program in the last year.
Fans and ratings
Fan confidence in a typical range for this program right now
42nd percentile among FBS programs
Fan mood index · most recent r/CFB data
More
Each link was checked against two outside sites.
Range of outcomes · Hawai'i · 2026