Wyoming beats Hawai'i 27-10
Wyoming beat Hawai'i 27-10. Share this game
We had Hawai'i favored. Wyoming won.
How it swung
The turning point: Holman 1-yd TD run, Wyoming leads 13-3 (Q2, 3:05). Wyoming went from 64% to 80% to win.
Before kickoff, our ratings gave Wyoming a 43% chance, and the closing betting line (Wyoming was a 2.5-point underdog) put it at 42%.
Wyoming won by 17, after dipping to 40% in the first quarter.
Hawai'i never had better than a 60% chance.
Wyoming 27-10 Hawai'i
Wyoming wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.Hawai'i 10-27 WyomingHawai'i lostMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.The two plays that swung it
- 1Q1 0:00PenaltySpecial teams51-yd punt, Uiliata returns it 9, holding on Hawai'iWyoming 40% → 51% (+11)
- 2Q2 3:05Holman 1-yd TD run, Wyoming leads 13-3Wyoming 64% → 80% (+16)
The two plays that swung it
- 1Q1 0:00PenaltySpecial teams51-yd punt, Uiliata returns it 9, holding on Hawai'iHawai'i 60% → 49% (−11)
- 2Q2 3:05Holman 1-yd TD run, Wyoming leads 13-3Hawai'i 36% → 20% (−16)
How to read this chart
Starts from the pregame line (Hawai'i -2.5), at 51% for Wyoming (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Outlined diamonds mark rare plays.Every drive
Wyoming scored on 5 of its 8 drives; Hawai'i on 2 of its 8.
Wyoming’s drives are teal, Hawai'i’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.
What it cost
Hawai'i’s chance to win the conference fell from 3% to 1%.
Win the conference
Before the game (September 25, 2026) → after this result, in our model.
Box score
Wyoming 27, Hawai'i 10
Wyoming covered +2.5 by 19.5. The total, 37, stayed under 44.5.
| Team totals | Hawai'i | Wyoming |
|---|---|---|
| Total yards | 328 | 387 |
| Passing | 28 of 44, 226 yds | 17 of 23, 204 yds |
| Rushing | 23 for 102 yds | 38 for 183 yds |
| First downs | 22 | 23 |
| Third down | 5 of 14 | 6 of 12 |
| Fourth down | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Turnovers | 0 | 0 |
| Penalties | 8 for 60 yds | 6 for 47 yds |
| Time of possession | 27:57 | 32:03 |
Hawai'i leaders
- Passing Micah Alejado 28 of 44, 226 yds, 1 TD
- Rushing Devon Rice 11 for 75 yds; Cam Barfield 4 for 17 yds
- Receiving Tama Uiliata 6 for 39 yds; Audric Harris 3 for 32 yds
Wyoming leaders
- Passing Tyler Hughes 17 of 23, 204 yds
- Rushing Samuel Harris 11 for 94 yds, 1 TD; Markell Holman 15 for 87 yds, 2 TD
- Receiving Deion DeBlanc 3 for 41 yds; Samuel Harris 4 for 36 yds
No rain, gusts to 32 mph
74° at kickoff · no rain recorded · wind 16 mph from the west, mostly across the field, gusts to 32
A 32 mph gust is stronger than the peak gust in 96% of games since 2018.
Each gray tick is one game. The black line is the typical game.
The usual here around this date is 58°, with about 7 in 10 games between 44° and 70°.
September game-day temperatures at War Memorial Stadium
Drag along the chart, or step through the game.
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The same game in two conditions
| Wind 15 mph or more | Lighter wind | |
|---|---|---|
| Runs and passes | 60 | 41 |
| Share that were passes | 53% | 54% |
| Yards per play | 6.5 | 5.6 |
| Turnovers | 0 | 0 |
How this is counted
Wind means an 11-minute average of 15 mph or more at the airport. Only plays while the score was within two touchdowns, so a blowout does not skew it. Same two teams in both columns, so team strength is held constant. Game situation still is not.Where this weather comes from
Measured at Laramie/gen. Brees airport, 5.5 miles away. Rain is NOAA's radar-and-gauge estimate at the stadium and wind is an airport reading; neither is measured on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet; rain radar from NOAA MRMS, through Iowa State University. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.Before kickoff
Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.
Recent games
Last three games
Hawai'i · 1-2
Rated 59th in our preseason ratings, 79th now.
1-2 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.
Last three games
Wyoming · 1-2
Rated 111th in our preseason ratings, 136th now.
1-2 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.
Week by week
Wyoming
- Wk 1Lat Colorado State13-35
- Wk 2Wvs Northern Colorado21-13
- Wk 3Lat Central Michigan10-24
Hawai'i
- Wk 1Lat Stanford27-37
- Wk 1Lvs UNLV6-21
- Wk 2Wvs New Mexico State29-19
Power rating by week
Hawai'i is rated 4.3 points ahead as of week 3. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
Matchups
Biggest mismatch: Hawai'i’s explosive plays against Wyoming, 76 points
Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.
Hawai'i’s explosive plays against Wyoming’s defense
Hawai'i offense, 13th percentile · Wyoming defense, 89th
Wyoming’s rushing EPA against Hawai'i’s defense
Wyoming offense, 71st percentile · Hawai'i defense, 11th
Wyoming’s success rate against Hawai'i’s defense
Wyoming offense, 65th percentile · Hawai'i defense, 16th
Season profile, all the rows
Season profile
The series
Wyoming leads the series 17-12
29 meetings since 1978 · Hawai'i won the last meeting
- 2025Hawai'i 27-7
- 2023Wyoming 42-9
- 2022Wyoming 27-20
- 2021Hawai'i 38-14
- 2020Wyoming 31-7
Each line is Wyoming’s chance to win through that meeting. Wyoming is 1-1 in the meetings since 2018 that were still close in the fourth quarter.
Line, fans and home field
The betting line, and the fans
Wyoming fans are in a better mood than Hawai'i fans (80th vs 59th among FBS fanbases), even with Hawai'i favored.
Hawai'i favored by 2.5 · Total 44.5
How games like this usually go
Hawai'i by 2.5, on the usual path until Q2 3:05
Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game
The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 252 games since 2025 with a favorite of under 3.5 points.
The market
The spread moved 3 points toward Wyoming.
Spread: +5.5 → +2.5
The books’ cut: 4.3%, the margin built into the odds
Weather at kickoff
Warm and dry. Feels like 73° at kickoff.
Hawai'i at Wyoming · Saturday, Sept. 26, 2026 · War Memorial Stadium, Laramie
- 73°feels like at kickoff
- Dryno rain at kickoff
- 93weather score, Comfortable
- Roughestof the day's 3 kickoff times
At kickoff, Sept. 26, 2026.
Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.
Kickoff times that Saturday
Games in this time zone used 3 kickoff times that day, local time (kickoffs within 30 minutes of each other count as one). This game, ringed, was the roughest of the day's three kickoff times. At War Memorial Stadium that day, a 5:30 pm kickoff would have scored 99, against 93 at 1 pm.
The roughest kickoff time is the lowest of the day's times. It can still be Mixed or Comfortable.
- 1 pm: 93, Comfortable (this game)
- 5:30 pm: 99, Comfortable
- 7 pm: 97, Comfortable
Weather score at each kickoff time.
Tap a dot to read that kickoff time.
At kickoff, Sept. 26, 2026. Wind is not drawn here; gusts are in each score.
Home field
Wyoming is worth +4.8 points (±3.5) more at home than on the road since 2018 — middle of FBS, 63rd percentile.
60% at home, 33% on the road against FBS opponents (24-16 home, 16-33 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +4.7 at home vs. away over 96 games — inside the ±5.8 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
7,218 ft of altitude — real, and smaller than the folklore: high venues run a point or two better against the number, noisily. The visitors travel about 3,322 miles to get here.
Last meeting in our History pages
- Wyoming 28, Hawai'i 21Sep 23, 2017
Where next
Conference standings
Place in the conference, then conference record.