Conference USA · Tony Sanchez, year 3 (8-19) · Aggie Memorial Stadium · 28,853 · 9,189 avg in 2026
LastL 19–29 at Hawai'i · Sat Sep 12 · James Jones 78 rush yds, 1 TD, 14 rec yds
Nextvs New Mexico · Sat Sep 26 · 3:30 pm ET · Aggie Memorial Stadium · series 24-65-2, lost the last 2 · Game preview
Updated Tue Sep 15 · through week 2
| Wk | Date | Us | Opp | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aug 29 | #150 | #82 | +31✓ | @Florida State | L 17–34 132 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| 1 | Sep 6 | #150 | #225 | -29.5✓ | Mercyhurst | W 51–14 123 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| 2 | Sep 13 | #148 | #62 | +7.5✗ | @Hawai'i | L 19–29 138 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| 4 | Sep 26 | #139 | #74 | New Mexico | ||||
| 5 | Oct 2 | Western Kentucky | ||||||
| 6 | Oct 7 | @Florida International | ||||||
| 8 | Oct 22 | @Sam Houston | ||||||
| 9 | Oct 29 | Jacksonville State | ||||||
| 10 | Nov 7 | Liberty | ||||||
| 11 | Nov 14 | @Missouri State | ||||||
| 12 | Nov 21 | Delaware | ||||||
| 13 | Nov 28 | @Middle Tennessee |
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Explosive% | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 13 | @Hawai'i | L 19–29 | 380 | 3 | 27:47 | +0.110 | 47.1% | 119.5% | Season-low EPA/play |
| Sep 6 | Mercyhurst | W 51–14 | 530 | 0 | 29:14 | +0.417 | 50.0% | 150.4% | Season-high EPA/play |
| Aug 29 | @Florida State | L 17–34 | 319 | 1 | 28:28 | +0.163 | 34.3% | 163.6% | Most explosive |
| Season average (3 games) | 410 | 1.3 | +0.230 | 43.8% | 144.5% | ||||
New Mexico State is the program that went 57 years between bowl games and survived everything college football could throw at it — a borderland school whose triumph is that it's still standing at all.
Fans are tired of being college football's punchline for losing — the program everyone schedules as a guaranteed win — and remember that Jerry Kill's 2023 team walked into that reputation and won ten…
The season in chapters
What fans said
Real posts from the day of the game, chosen by community score · usernames not shown
What it is like to watch them2025 · 4-8 · last season
✓ measured from 12 games · ranks are among Conference USA teams the same season
Recent form · last 10 games · incl. 2025
Cooling. 2-8 over the last 10, and lost the last one.
Our goal is to provide students with a safe, secure area, ensure that they are protected, and that they have a successful, enjoyable time in that area, and more importantly at the event
Next Sep 26
vs New Mexico · at home
~ our read on style
Market outlook
Sportsbook consensus · best odds across multiple books · 2026-09-14
the open questionwhere does it go from here?
New Mexico State enters 2026 — the 4-8 record and #130 talent rank contrast sharply with the 2023 10-5 season that defined its historic Southwest-borderland identity under Jerry Kill.
our readbackground
Donovan Faupel is a legitimate money-down target -- his 3rd-down conversion rate ranks among the position's best, and his per-target value holds up in that spot too.
our readdeveloping
Donovan Faupel is used almost exclusively underneath -- a low share of his targets are downfield shots.
our readbackground
Glynn Johnson Jr is used almost exclusively underneath -- a low share of his targets are downfield shots.
our readbackground
Kadarius Calloway: a closer signal screened this season.
our readbackground
New Mexico State enters 2025 at No. 123 in SP+ — the 4-8 record under Tony Sanchez in his second year raises questions about sustaining Jerry Kill's historic-Southwest-borderland-football legacy.
our readbackground
Outcome band · New Mexico State · 2026
Floor, base and ceiling come from the season-path projection, which plays out conference title games and the CFP — so a ceiling can run past 12 games.
New Mexico State enters 2026 rated No. 123 in 2025 SP+ (-15.5). SP+ describes what the program HAS done, not what it will do. The season is the field test. The preview consensus leans in — but preseason ratings reward the recent past, not the season ahead.
The 'the projection is underselling us' read -- fans betting the season beats the preview number.
The 'the model has seen the tape' counter -- efficiency ratings reward what a program has actually done, not hope.
Nothing in our corpus yet — this door stays open for when there is.
This event was in 36 of 101 board posts (36%) over the last 60 days — a fanbase consumed by it. Fan text shown verbatim, attributed to the community not the individual poster.
The boards ≠ the fanbase: a vocal, self-selected slice.
Fan mood index · most recent r/cfb data
More in this tab
New Mexico State is the Conference USA program whose 2023 10-5 + Conference USA championship game appearance + Aggie Memorial Stadium + Jerry Kill era define what historic-Southwest-borderland-football looks like.
Trey Hedden named NM State QB1
Sanchez has his answer at QB for a program still finding its FBS footing — Hedden takes the reins on a roster sitting 131st in class rank with LB depth still a question mark behind him.
NM State fires assistant coach Cobb
Losing your GM before fall camp even opens is exactly the wrong kind of roster news when your class sits 131st nationally and LB depth is already thin — Sanchez needs stability, not front-office turbulence.
CUSA announces 2026-27 conference schedule
CUSA locking in the 2026-27 slate matters more for the Aggies than most in the league — a class ranked 126th nationally and thin at LB means Sanchez needs favorable conference draw, not a gauntlet, to let that SP+ climb hold.
Top 3 commits
Recruiting Footprint · 2026
TX leads the 2026 class with 4 commits. National footprint reaching 7 states.
Where they recruit · 2023-2026
85 signees across 21 states, 2023-2026. CA leads the pull.
Miles from home · 2026 roster
The median New Mexico State player grew up 676 miles from campus.
Half this roster came from closer than that; half came from farther.
Straight-line distance from each player's listed hometown to Aggie Memorial Stadium. Hometowns are placed at city-centroid precision, not street address — fine at this scale, but a player's true door-to-door number can differ by a few miles. 104 of 106 listed players have a geocoded hometown. Source: CFBD roster hometowns.
Top community posts · last 12 months · r/cfb
27% of tipped/broken-up passes have turned into picks — running hot vs. the ~18% league average.
3 interceptions of 11 disrupted passes (8 deflected, 3 intercepted), 2026 only.
22 penalties committed, 17 drawn on opponents — a near-even trade all season.
180 penalty yards committed vs. 156 drawn on opponents, 2026 season total.
Outcome band · New Mexico State · 2026
Recruiting Footprint · 2026