The rest of the season
Underdogs in all 4 games left, best shot: Middle Tennessee 42%
Win out 1% · expect 1.2 of 4 more wins
New Mexico State's chance to win each game left, from our model: Liberty 22%, Missouri State 40%, Delaware 19%, Middle Tennessee 42%Bar height is our model’s chance in each game left. Dashed line: 50%.
Bowl chance went from 30% to 11%, peaking at 30% before a game
Our model, entering each game. The letter is the result of the game before it.
StandingTied for 3rd in the Conference USA · 2-2 in conference play · All standings
LeadersPassing Trey Hedden 906 · Rushing James Jones 889 · Receiving Tyler King 307 All player stats
Updated Wed Nov 4 · through week 9
Follow New Mexico State:athletics siteConference USAXInstagram@nmstateaggies
| Wk | Date | Our rank | Opp rank | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf | Top performers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aug 29 | #150 | #82 | +30.5✓ +13.5 | @Florida State | L 17-34 132 | 0-1 | 0-0 | Pass Hedden 272 · Rush Jones 28 · Rec Malone 96 |
| 1 | Sep 5 | #150 | #225 | −29.5✓ +7.5 | Mercyhurst | W 51-14 123 | 1-1 | 0-0 | Pass Hedden 253 · Rush Jones 137 · Rec King 94 |
| 2 | Sep 12 | #148 | #62 | +7.5✗ −2.5 | @Hawai'i | L 19-29 138 | 1-2 | 0-0 | Pass Hedden 256 · Rush Jones 78 · Rec King 67 |
| 3 | Bye week | ||||||||
| 4 | Sep 26 | #143 | #68 | +11.5✗ −12.5 | New Mexico | L 18-42 133 | 1-3 | 0-0 | Pass Damante 157 · Rush Jones 112 · Rec Thomas 90 |
| 5 | Oct 1 | #149 | #70 | −1.5✓ +19.5 | Western Kentucky | W 34-13 134 | 2-3 | 1-0 | Pass Damante 146 · Rush Jones 155 · Rec Thomas 60 |
| 6 | Oct 7 | #137 | #131 | +7✗ −12 | @Florida International | L 3-22 124 | 2-4 | 1-1 | Pass Damante 104 · Rush Jones 89 · Rec Graves 39 |
| 7 | Bye week | ||||||||
| 8 | Oct 21 | #145 | #165 | −3✓ +3 | @Sam Houston | W 30-24 124 | 3-4 | 2-1 | Pass Damante 160 · Rush Jones 178 · Rec Williams 52 |
| 9 | Oct 28 | #147 | #83 | +3✗ −21 | Jacksonville State | L 0-24 116 Roaring | 3-5 | 2-2 | Pass Damante 29 · Rush Jones 112 · Rec Malone 19 |
| 10 | Nov 7 | #174 | #36 | +16.5 | Liberty | 8 pm ET · ESPNU22% to win | |||
| 11 | Nov 14 | #179 | #141 | @Missouri State | 3 pm ET40% to win | ||||
| 12 | Nov 21 | Delaware | 3 pm ET19% to win | ||||||
| 13 | Nov 28 | @Middle Tennessee | 2 pm ET | ||||||
Win chances are our model for New Mexico State, through 8 games. This week's game comes from the playoff simulation, later games from the rating model. They are estimates and move every week.
The small line beside each score is the team's win chance through the game, drawn on one scale for every game. The small number is total plays.
Line is the closing point spread for New Mexico State: a minus number means favored. A green check means the team covered it, by the number beside it. A red cross means it fell short by that much.
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Big plays (IsoPPP) | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 28 | Jacksonville State | L 0-24 | 221 | 1 | 24:42 | -0.138 | 34.5% | 0.91 | |
| Oct 21 | @Sam Houston | W 30-24 | 363 | 2 | 34:34 | -0.104 | 40.3% | 0.98 | One-score win |
| Oct 7 | @Florida International | L 3-22 | 230 | 3 | 22:06 | -0.354 | 33.9% | 1.04 | Season-low EPA/play |
| Oct 1 | Western Kentucky | W 34-13 | 352 | 1 | 29:35 | -0.048 | 34.4% | 1.59 | Best defensive stand |
| Sep 26 | New Mexico | L 18-42 | 400 | 3 | 26:02 | +0.027 | 43.7% | 1.32 | Defense's roughest night |
| Sep 12 | @Hawai'i | L 19-29 | 380 | 3 | 27:47 | -0.010 | 47.1% | 1.20 | |
| Sep 5 | Mercyhurst | W 51-14 | 530 | 0 | 29:14 | +0.417 | 50.0% | 1.50 | Season-high EPA/play |
| Aug 29 | @Florida State | L 17-34 | 319 | 1 | 28:28 | +0.163 | 34.3% | 1.64 | Most explosive |
| Season average (8 games) | 349 | 1.8 | -0.006 | 39.8% | 1.27 | ||||
New Mexico State's wildest games since 2013: comebacks, long shots, line misses
Median odds across sportsbooks · Nov 4. A number with a minus is the favorite: −130 means $130 wins $100. A plus is the underdog: +170 means $100 wins $170.
What fans said
Real posts about each game (they name the opponent, a player or a play), chosen by community score · usernames not shown
The games that decide the season
Recent form · last 10 games
4-6 over the last 10, and lost the last one.
We don’t really focus on the outside. We really care about who’s in the building everyday
Range of outcomes · New Mexico State · 2026
Regular-season wins: chance of each total, from the game chances above
3 wins 22%; 4 wins 42%; 5 wins 28%; 6 wins 7%Bars are the chance of each regular-season win total, from our model's chance in each game left, through 8 games. Paler bars are the outer 10% at each end. The closed row comes from the season-path projection, which also plays out conference title games and the CFP.
New Mexico State cusa championship lengthened, from 6.2% to 2.4% (down 3.8 points) between Oct 28 and Oct 29, 2026. The market moved and the fan conversation hasn't caught up. Little discussion of a line move usually means the information arrived before the coverage did. Discussion is thin, and the market moved faster than the reaction.
The 'market knows something fans don't' read: when odds move, it's on information.
The 'markets overcorrect' counter: lines move on noise too; the receipts may not hold.
Nothing in our corpus yet.
This event was in 24 of 186 board posts (13%) over the last 60 days, a large share of the conversation. Fan text is shown verbatim and credited to the community it came from; posters stay anonymous.
Board posters are a vocal, self-selected slice of the fanbase.
More in this tab
This week and this season
What it is like to watch them2026 · 3-5
Measured from 8 games · ranks are among Conference USA teams the same season
New Mexico State is the program that went 57 years between bowl games and survived everything college football could throw at it — a borderland school whose triumph is that it's still standing at all.
Fans are tired of being college football's punchline for losing, the program everyone schedules as a guaranteed win, and remember that Jerry Kill's 2023 team walked into that reputation and won…
New Mexico State · Game-day weather
This Saturday: Cool. Bring a jacket.
Liberty at New Mexico State · Saturday, Nov. 7 · 8 pm ET · ESPNU · Aggie Memorial Stadium.
Forecast, read Wed Nov 4, 8:20 am ET. It can change until kickoff.
Typical weather score at each kickoff time.
Tap a dot to read it.
At kickoff, regular-season Saturdays, 2018 to 2025: 114 at noon, 114 at 3:30 pm, 113 at 7:30 pm. Typical means the average of those Saturdays. It is not a forecast.
Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50. Gusts count toward the score (up to 15 points). Average rain chance: the hourly chances of rain over the first 3 hours and 20 minutes, averaged.
New Mexico State is the Conference USA program whose 2023 10-5 + Conference USA championship game appearance + Aggie Memorial Stadium + Jerry Kill era define what historic-Southwest-borderland-football looks like.
Roster and recruiting
Top 1 commits
No high-engagement r/cfb discussions tracked for this program in the last year.
Fans and ratings
Fan mood index · most recent r/CFB data
More
Each link was checked against two outside sites.
Range of outcomes · New Mexico State · 2026