Conference USA · Casey Woods, year 1 (1-1) · Plaster Sports Complex · 17,337 · 12,138 avg in 2026
LastW 48–14 vs Lindenwood · Sat Sep 12 · Isaiah Myers 24 rush yds, 1 TD, 155 rec yds
Nextvs Marshall · Sat Sep 19 · 6:30 pm ET · Plaster Sports Complex · Marshall by 3.5 · series 1-0 · Game preview
Updated Tue Sep 15 · through week 2
| Wk | Date | Us | Opp | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 5 | #94 | #6 | +38.5✗ | @Texas A&M | L 0–50 125 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| 2 | Sep 12 | #88 | #172 | -16.5✓ | Lindenwood | W 48–14 132 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| 3 | Sep 19 | #98 | #33 | +3.5 | Marshall | |||
| 4 | Sep 26 | #99 | #12 | @SMU | ||||
| 6 | Oct 8 | @Western Kentucky | ||||||
| 7 | Oct 14 | Kennesaw State | ||||||
| 8 | Oct 20 | @Delaware | ||||||
| 9 | Oct 28 | Sam Houston | ||||||
| 10 | Nov 7 | @Florida International | ||||||
| 11 | Nov 14 | New Mexico State | ||||||
| 12 | Nov 21 | @Jacksonville State | ||||||
| 13 | Nov 28 | Liberty |
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Explosive% | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 12 | Lindenwood | W 48–14 | 584 | 0 | 34:10 | +0.375 | 46.8% | 140.9% | |
| Sep 5 | @Texas A&M | L 0–50 | 67 | 3 | 16:57 | -0.244 | 17.1% | 93.3% | |
| Season average (2 games) | 326 | 1.5 | +0.065 | 32.0% | 117.1% | ||||
Missouri State ended a 30-year title drought under Bobby Petrino, watched him leave for UNLV, jumped to the FBS in 2025 under Ryan Beard, watched Beard leave for Coastal Carolina the moment the season ended, and played its first-ever bowl game under Bobby's son Nick Petrino instead.
Missouri State keeps building real, credentialed coaching success -- a 30-year title drought broken, an FBS jump that produced a bowl bid in year one -- and keeps losing the architect to a bigger job…
The season in chapters
What fans said
Real posts from the day of the game, chosen by community score · usernames not shown
What it is like to watch them2025 · 7-6 · last season
✓ measured from 13 games · ranks are among Conference USA teams the same season
Recent form · last 10 games · incl. 2025
Cold. 6-4 over the last 10, and won the last one.
Next Sep 19
vs Marshall · at home
~ our read on style
Market outlook
Sportsbook consensus · best odds across multiple books · 2026-09-14
the open questionwhere does it go from here?
Casey Woods begins his first season at Missouri State, inheriting a 7-6 record and a program still finding its identity after a rapid succession of coaches and a historic bowl debut.
our readdeveloping
Missouri State enters 2026 — a 7-6 record and 129th talent rank create a split screen between momentum and skepticism for Ryan Beard’s first season in a program that hasn’t.
our readbackground
Jmariyae Robinson is a legitimate money-down target -- his 3rd-down conversion rate ranks among the position's best, and his per-target value holds up in that spot too.
our readdeveloping
Jmariyae Robinson produces at a notably LOWER rate when his team is an underdog than when favored -- he fades when the pressure is on, and his per-target value drops too.
our readdeveloping
Casey Woods begins his first season at Missouri State with a 7-6 record under his belt, but the program's fragile identity and recent coaching churn demand immediate results.
our readdeveloping
Alred Luke is used almost exclusively underneath -- a low share of his targets are downfield shots.
our readbackground
James BlackStrain is used almost exclusively underneath -- a low share of his targets are downfield shots.
our readbackground
Missouri State enters 2025 at No. 108 in SP+ — Ryan Beard's first season opens with a winning 7-6 record, but #129 talent nationally raises questions about sustainability.
our readbackground
Casey Woods took over as Missouri State's head coach, replacing Nick Petrino.
our readdeveloping
Outcome band · Missouri State · 2026
Floor, base and ceiling come from the season-path projection, which plays out conference title games and the CFP — so a ceiling can run past 12 games.
Missouri State: the fanbase's identity shifting.
The off-field storyline driving the noise right now. Not analysis — the soap opera, and that's the point.
The optimistic read: momentum, and the 'this is real' takes.
The analytical counter: rankings, results, and 'the hype is ahead of the tape' takes.
Nothing in our corpus yet — this door stays open for when there is.
This event was in 19 of 139 board posts (14%) over the last 60 days — a fanbase consumed by it. Fan text shown verbatim, attributed to the community not the individual poster.
The boards ≠ the fanbase: a vocal, self-selected slice.
Missouri State enters 2026 rated No. 108 in 2025 SP+ (-10.7). SP+ describes what the program HAS done, not what it will do. The season is the field test. The preview consensus leans in — but preseason ratings reward the recent past, not the season ahead.
The off-field storyline driving the noise right now. Not analysis — the soap opera, and that's the point.
The 'the projection is underselling us' read -- fans betting the season beats the preview number.
The 'the model has seen the tape' counter -- efficiency ratings reward what a program has actually done, not hope.
Nothing in our corpus yet — this door stays open for when there is.
This event was in 26 of 139 board posts (19%) over the last 60 days — a fanbase consumed by it. Fan text shown verbatim, attributed to the community not the individual poster.
The boards ≠ the fanbase: a vocal, self-selected slice.
More in this tab
Missouri State ended a 30-year conference-title drought under Bobby Petrino in the COVID-delayed 2020 season, watched Petrino leave for UNLV in 2022, jumped to the FBS and Conference USA in 2025 under Ryan Beard -- who left for Coastal Carolina the moment the 7-6 debut season ended -- and played its first-ever bowl game under interim coach Nick Petrino, Bobby's son, before hiring first-time head coach Casey Woods.
The program ledger
since 2025NCAA denies sixth-year waiver for James BlackStrain
BlackStrain's sixth year is gone, and that's a real hit to a DL room already under pressure — Missouri State's depth class ranked 133rd nationally, and they can't afford to lose a veteran body up front.
Win total (line at 4.5) still unmoved 13d after "NCAA denies sixth-year waiver for James BlackStrain"
The market hasn't budged since "NCAA denies sixth-year waiver for James BlackStrain" broke on 2026-07-11 — either the books see it as already priced in, or this one's genuinely slipped past them.
Win total (line at 4.5) still unmoved 12d after "NCAA denies sixth-year waiver for James BlackStrain"
The market hasn't budged since "NCAA denies sixth-year waiver for James BlackStrain" broke on 2026-07-11 — either the books see it as already priced in, or this one's genuinely slipped past them.
Win total (line at 4.5) still unmoved 11d after "NCAA denies sixth-year waiver for James BlackStrain"
The market hasn't budged since "NCAA denies sixth-year waiver for James BlackStrain" broke on 2026-07-11 — either the books see it as already priced in, or this one's genuinely slipped past them.
Win total (line at 4.5) still unmoved 10d after "NCAA denies sixth-year waiver for James BlackStrain"
The market hasn't budged since "NCAA denies sixth-year waiver for James BlackStrain" broke on 2026-07-11 — either the books see it as already priced in, or this one's genuinely slipped past them.
Win total (line at 4.5) — no reprice yet on "NCAA denies sixth-year waiver for James BlackStrain"
It's been 10d since "NCAA denies sixth-year waiver for James BlackStrain" and the line hasn't moved. Worth checking again in a few days to see if the books are just slow.
Top 3 commits
Recruiting Footprint · 2026
FL leads the 2026 class with 4 commits. National footprint reaching 7 states.
Where they recruit · 2023-2026
58 signees across 14 states, 2023-2026. TX leads the pull.
Miles from home · 2026 roster
The median Missouri State player grew up 433 miles from campus.
Half this roster came from closer than that; half came from farther.
Straight-line distance from each player's listed hometown to Plaster Sports Complex. Hometowns are placed at city-centroid precision, not street address — fine at this scale, but a player's true door-to-door number can differ by a few miles. 97 of 105 listed players have a geocoded hometown. Source: CFBD roster hometowns.
Top community posts · last 12 months · r/cfb
9% of tipped/broken-up passes have turned into picks — below the ~18% league average, and due for more.
1 interceptions of 11 disrupted passes (10 deflected, 1 intercepted), 2026 only.
19 penalties committed, 15 drawn on opponents — netting a 28-yard field-position edge.
131 penalty yards committed vs. 159 drawn on opponents, 2026 season total.
Outcome band · Missouri State · 2026
Recruiting Footprint · 2026