The rest of the season
4 of 4 games under 70%, the hardest: Liberty 6%
Win out <1% · expect 1.2 of 4 more wins
Missouri State's chance to win each game left, from our model: Florida International 41%, New Mexico State 60%, Jacksonville State 16%, Liberty 6%Bar height is our model’s chance in each game left. Dashed line: 50%.
Bowl chance went from 54% to 19%, peaking at 54% before a game
Our model, entering each game. The letter is the result of the game before it.
StandingTied for 3rd in the Conference USA · 2-2 in conference play · All standings
LeadersPassing Henry Belin IV 1,071 · Rushing Ramone Green Jr. 272 · Receiving Isaiah Myers 873 All player stats
Updated Wed Nov 4 · through week 9
Follow Missouri State:athletics siteConference USA
| Wk | Date | Our rank | Opp rank | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf | Top performers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 5 | #94 | #6 | +38.5✗ −11.5 | @Texas A&M | L 0-50 125 | 0-1 | 0-0 | Pass Locklear 30 · Rush Dubar 20 · Rec Hipp 15 |
| 2 | Sep 12 | #90 | #170 | −16.5✓ +17.5 | Lindenwood | W 48-14 132 | 1-1 | 0-0 | Pass Locklear 258 · Rush Green Jr. 80 · Rec Myers 155 |
| 3 | Sep 19 | #97 | #33 | +4✗ −2 | Marshall | L 24-30 136 | 1-2 | 0-0 | Pass Locklear 309 · Rush Green Jr. 76 · Rec Myers 141 |
| 4 | Sep 26 | #97 | #13 | +30.5✓ +20.5 | @SMU | L 24-34 141 Loud | 1-3 | 0-0 | Pass Locklear 102 · Rush Dubar 76 · Rec Myers 46 |
| 5 | Bye week | ||||||||
| 6 | Oct 8 | #105 | #89 | −1.5✗ −22.5 | @Western Kentucky | L 13-34 142 | 1-4 | 0-1 | Pass Belin IV 115 · Rush Locklear 76 · Rec Myers 77 |
| 7 | Oct 14 | #122 | #146 | +2.5✓ +5.5 | Kennesaw State | W 24-21 136 | 2-4 | 1-1 | Pass Belin IV 300 · Rush Lair 65 · Rec Myers 135 |
| 8 | Oct 20 | #136 | #107 | +3✗ −20 | @Delaware | L 38-61 133 | 2-5 | 1-2 | Pass Belin IV 337 · Rush Lair 85 · Rec Myers 242 |
| 9 | Oct 27 | #164 | #176 | −5.5✓ +15.5 | Sam Houston | W 24-3 117 | 3-5 | 2-2 | Pass Belin IV 184 · Rush Lair 75 · Rec Robinson 102 |
| 10 | Nov 7 | #147 | #136 | +4.5 | @Florida International | 4 pm ET41% to win | |||
| 11 | Nov 14 | #141 | #179 | New Mexico State | 3 pm ET60% to win | ||||
| 12 | Nov 21 | @Jacksonville State | 2 pm ET16% to win | ||||||
| 13 | Nov 28 | Liberty | 2 pm ET | ||||||
Win chances are our model for Missouri State, through 8 games. This week's game comes from the playoff simulation, later games from the rating model. They are estimates and move every week.
The small line beside each score is the team's win chance through the game, drawn on one scale for every game. The small number is total plays.
Line is the closing point spread for Missouri State: a minus number means favored. A green check means the team covered it, by the number beside it. A red cross means it fell short by that much.
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Big plays (IsoPPP) | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 27 | Sam Houston | W 24-3 | 313 | 0 | 30:52 | +0.183 | 35.6% | 1.54 | Most explosive |
| Oct 20 | @Delaware | L 38-61 | 431 | 3 | 25:17 | +0.200 | 53.4% | 1.26 | Defense's roughest night |
| Oct 14 | Kennesaw State | W 24-21 | 421 | 1 | 33:36 | +0.023 | 40.5% | 1.29 | One-score win |
| Oct 8 | @Western Kentucky | L 13-34 | 340 | 1 | 27:39 | -0.055 | 36.8% | 1.18 | |
| Sep 26 | @SMU | L 24-34 | 239 | 1 | 25:46 | -0.124 | 30.2% | 1.18 | |
| Sep 19 | Marshall | L 24-30 | 506 | 1 | 25:31 | +0.387 | 56.2% | 1.13 | Season-high EPA/play |
| Sep 12 | Lindenwood | W 48-14 | 584 | 0 | 34:10 | +0.323 | 46.8% | 1.41 | Blowout win |
| Sep 5 | @Texas A&M | L 0-50 | 67 | 3 | 16:57 | -0.244 | 17.1% | 0.93 | Season-low EPA/play |
| Season average (8 games) | 363 | 1.2 | +0.087 | 39.6% | 1.24 | ||||
Missouri State's wildest games since 2013: comebacks, long shots, line misses
Median odds across sportsbooks · Nov 4. A number with a minus is the favorite: −130 means $130 wins $100. A plus is the underdog: +170 means $100 wins $170.
What fans said
Real posts about each game (they name the opponent, a player or a play), chosen by community score · usernames not shown
The games that decide the season
Recent form · last 10 games
3-7 over the last 10, and won the last one.
Range of outcomes · Missouri State · 2026
Regular-season wins: chance of each total, from the game chances above
3 wins 19%; 4 wins 46%; 5 wins 30%; 6 wins 5%Bars are the chance of each regular-season win total, from our model's chance in each game left, through 8 games. Paler bars are the outer 10% at each end. The closed row comes from the season-path projection, which also plays out conference title games and the CFP.
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This week and this season
What it is like to watch them2026 · 3-5
Measured from 8 games · ranks are among Conference USA teams the same season
Missouri State ended a 30-year title drought under Bobby Petrino, watched him leave for UNLV, jumped to the FBS in 2025 under Ryan Beard, watched Beard leave for Coastal Carolina the moment the season ended, and played its first-ever bowl game under Bobby's son Nick Petrino instead.
Missouri State keeps building real, credentialed coaching success -- a 30-year title drought broken, an FBS jump that produced a bowl bid in year one -- and keeps losing the architect to a bigger…
Missouri State ended a 30-year conference-title drought under Bobby Petrino in the COVID-delayed 2020 season, watched Petrino leave for UNLV in 2022, jumped to the FBS and Conference USA in 2025 under Ryan Beard -- who left for Coastal Carolina the moment the 7-6 debut season ended -- and played its first-ever bowl game under interim coach Nick Petrino, Bobby's son, before hiring first-time head coach Casey Woods.
The program ledger
since 2025Roster and recruiting
Top 2 commits
Top community posts · last 12 months · r/cfb
Fans and ratings
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Each link was checked against two outside sites.
Range of outcomes · Missouri State · 2026