Next game: at Florida International
Florida International’s best edge on Missouri State is staying on schedule
Each unit against the one it meets, by national percentile this season. A filled dot is the attack and a ring is the defense it meets; the first name is the attack. Further right is better for both.
Missouri State offense against Florida International defense
Florida International offense against Missouri State defense
Percentiles are against all FBS teams this season.
Key stats
Each bar is the team’s national rank as a percentile. A longer bar is better, for defense too.
All 98 stats
FBS rankings · 2026 season · all stats vs 136 FBS programs
| Player | # | G | Cmp/Att | Pct | Yds | Y/A | TD | INT | Rate | ZPR | QBR | Adj ANY/A | Sack% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pocket Passer · +0.19 EPA/play | 2 | 7 | 85 / 126 | 67.5 | 1071 | 8.5 | 8 | 4 | 153.5 | 60 | 52.7 | 7.4 | 5.3 | |
Yards by week → Pocket passerBalanced passer who operates within the system, without one standout number carrying the profile. Starter — 126 pass attempts and 22 carries in 7 games, fewer passes and runs a game than most FBS quarterbacks who play every week. The most common profile in its group this season — 79 of 159 classified this way. Played in 7 of 10 games this season · freshman View Henry Belin IV's full player page | ||||||||||||||
| Pocket Passer · +0.17 EPA/play | 9 | 5 | 71 / 108 | 65.7 | 788 | 7.3 | 4 | 2 | 135.5 | 36 | 46.1 | 6.4 | 6.9 | |
Yards by week → Pocket passerBalanced passer who operates within the system, without one standout number carrying the profile. 108 pass attempts and 33 carries in 5 games. Fewer passes and runs a game than most FBS quarterbacks who play every week. This week's matchup — QB Locklear operates within the system without forcing anything. Hedden is the one who operates within the system without forcing anything. Season receipt Yards / attempt7.5 bottom 41th percentile · FBS QBs, min. 80 attempts Completion %66.2% 68th percentile · FBS QBs, min. 80 attempts Trait fingerprint Plays like View Skyler Locklear's full player page | ||||||||||||||
| Player | # | G | Car | Yds | Avg | TD | Long | Stuff% | 10+% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Balanced Back · -0.02 EPA/play | 22 | 8 | 67 | 272 | 4.1 | 2 | 19 | 13.6 | 6.1 | |
Yards by week → Balanced backPlays within the scheme — consistent production without a dominant dimension. 67 carries and 8 catches in 8 games. About as many touches a game as a typical FBS running back who plays every week. The most common profile in its group this season — 134 of 278 classified this way. Played in 8 of 10 games this season · freshman View Ramone Green Jr.'s full player page | ||||||||||
| Workhorse · +0.18 EPA/play | 40 | 8 | 65 | 258 | 4.0 | 4 | 29 | 21.5 | 12.3 | |
Yards by week → WorkhorseBuilt to take 20+ carries per game. Volume is the value. 65 carries and 9 catches in 8 games. About as many touches a game as a typical FBS running back who plays every week. This week's matchup — RB Lair just keeps getting the ball, series after series. Jones is the one who hits the crease and outruns the angle. Season receipt Weight225 lb 92th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Yards / carry4.4 bottom 21th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Trait fingerprint Plays like View Connor Lair's full player page | ||||||||||
| Balanced Back · +0.11 EPA/play | 1 | 6 | 43 | 228 | 5.3 | 2 | 49 | — | — | |
Yards by week → Balanced backPlays within the scheme — consistent production without a dominant dimension. 43 carries and 4 catches in 6 games. Fewer touches a game than most FBS running backs who play every week. The most common profile in its group this season — 134 of 278 classified this way. Played in 6 of 10 games this season · freshman View Jambres Dubar's full player page | ||||||||||
| Player | # | G | Rec | Yds | Avg | TD | Long | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Threat · +1.33 EPA/play | 3 | 7 | 41 | 873 #7 FBS | 21.3 | 8 #9 FBS | 72 | |
Yards by week → Deep threat· Money-downStretches the field vertically. Every snap is a potential big play. lives on the sticks and moves the chains Starter — 41 catches and 2 carries in 7 games, more catches a game than nearly every FBS receiver who plays every week. This week's matchup — WR Myers beats you over the top. Williams is the one who wins the 50-50 ball at the goal line. Season receipt Yards / reception21.4 99th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions EPA / play (adj)1.3 100th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Isaiah Myers's full player page | ||||||||
| Slot Technician · +0.13 EPA/play | — | 7 | 44 | 398 | 9.0 | 1 | 47 | |
Yards by week → Slot technician· Boom-or-bustRuns precise routes in tight quarters. Volume player who keeps chains moving. his yards come in chunks — feast or famine Starter — 44 catches, 3 carries and 1 pass attempt in 7 games, more catches a game than nearly every FBS receiver who plays every week. This week's matchup — WR Robinson wins underneath on volume and route precision. Williams is the one who wins the 50-50 ball at the goal line. Season receipt Reception volume44 94th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Yards / reception9.2 bottom 11th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Jmariyae Robinson's full player page | ||||||||
| Possession Receiver · +0.29 EPA/play | 6 | 4 | 13 | 146 | 11.2 | 0 | 42 | |
Yards by week → Possession receiverReliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive. This week's matchup — WR Miller moves the chains on third down. Williams is the one who wins the 50-50 ball at the goal line. Season receipt Yards / reception8.7 bottom 9th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions TD rate0.0% bottom 10th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Mekhi Miller's full player page | ||||||||
| Complete TE · +0.40 EPA/play | 85 | 6 | 13 | 122 | 9.4 | 1 | 47 | |
Yards by week → Complete TENo single go-to route — the receiving numbers show up inline and split out alike. The most common profile in its group this season — 126 of 166 classified this way. Played in 6 of 10 games this season · freshman View Dillon Hipp's full player page | ||||||||
| Complete TE · +0.23 EPA/play | 88 | 5 | 12 | 82 | 6.8 | 1 | 25 | |
Yards by week → Complete TENo single go-to route — the receiving numbers show up inline and split out alike. The most common profile in its group this season — 126 of 166 classified this way. Played in 5 of 10 games this season · freshman View Jeron Askren's full player page | ||||||||
| Player | # | G | Tot | Solo | TFL | Sack | Hur |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Two-Gap Base | 11 | 8 | 24 | 10 | 4.5 | 2 | 2 |
Two-gap baseStout at the point of attack — steady tackle-for-loss production without a standout pass-rush number. Starter — 24 tackles in 8 games, about as many tackles a game as a typical FBS defensive lineman who plays every week. 276 of 606 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate18.8% 63th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Tim Brantley Jr.'s full player page | |||||||
| Nose Anchor | 57 | 6 | 17 | 7 | 3.5 | 1 | 0 |
Nose anchorThe heaviest frame on the interior. Sack production is intentionally not the point of this profile. 130 of 606 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Weight310 lb 82th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Gilles Tchio's full player page | |||||||
| Pressure Merchant | 92 | 8 | 12 | 6 | 3 | 2.5 | 4 |
Pressure merchantCollapses the pocket even when the sack doesn't come. 22 of 180 EDGEs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt View Joshua Lukusa's full player pageHurry rate0.3 94th percentile · FBS EDGE, min. 10 tackles | |||||||
| Versatile End | 30 | 7 | 11 | 3 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
Versatile endNo single standout number, but nothing missing either — competent across the board. 121 of 180 EDGEs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate4.5% bottom 10th percentile · FBS EDGE, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Caden Wiest's full player page | |||||||
| Versatile End | 49 | 7 | 11 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
Versatile endNo single standout number, but nothing missing either — competent across the board. 121 of 180 EDGEs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate0.0% bottom 5th percentile · FBS EDGE, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Dylan Brooks's full player page | |||||||
| 99 | 5 | 9 | 1 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0 | |
| 5 | 5 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 10 | 6 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| 52 | 6 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| 96 | 5 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| 97 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Player | # | G | Tot | Solo | Ast | TFL | Sack | PD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Balanced Linebacker | — | 8 | 86 | 38 | 48 | 5.5 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
Balanced linebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. Impact starter — 86 tackles in 8 games, more tackles a game than nearly every FBS linebacker who plays every week. 330 of 564 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume86 100th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles TFL rate6.4% bottom 36th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Jared Lloyd's full player page | |||||||||
| Balanced Linebacker | 21 | 7 | 34 | 13 | 21 | 2.5 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Balanced linebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. 34 tackles in 7 games. About as many tackles a game as a typical FBS linebacker who plays every week. 330 of 564 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume34 bottom 42th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles TFL rate7.4% bottom 41th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Jashawn Cooper's full player page | |||||||||
| Coverage 'Backer | 15 | 7 | 26 | 14 | 12 | 2.5 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
Coverage ’backerCarries tight ends and patrols the middle of the field in coverage. 89 of 564 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate7.7% 92th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Sack rate7.7% 86th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Martavis Blackmon's full player page | |||||||||
| Balanced Linebacker | 38 | 5 | 16 | 5 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Balanced linebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. 330 of 564 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume16 bottom 11th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles TFL rate0.0% bottom 9th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Stratton Shufelt's full player page | |||||||||
| 24 | 6 | 13 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| 35 | 5 | 9 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Player | # | G | Tot | PD | INT | TFL | Sack |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Box Safety | 16 | 8 | 46 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Box safety· Takeaway threatLives near the line of scrimmage as a de facto extra linebacker. the kind of DB who takes it back the other way Starter — 46 tackles in 8 games, about as many tackles a game as a typical FBS defensive back who plays every week. 150 of 657 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume46 88th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View J.J. O'Neal's full player page | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 29 | 8 | 43 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
Hybrid nickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. Starter — 43 tackles in 8 games, about as many tackles a game as a typical FBS defensive back who plays every week. The most common profile in its group this season — 358 of 657 classified this way. Played in 8 of 10 games this season · freshman View Christian Ford's full player page | |||||||
| Perimeter Tackler | 12 | 8 | 33 | 6 #43 FBS | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Perimeter tackler· Takeaway threatTargeted often and asked to tackle in space on the perimeter. the kind of DB who takes it back the other way 33 tackles in 8 games. About as many tackles a game as a typical FBS defensive back who plays every week. 36 of 244 CBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume33 92th percentile · FBS corners, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Joel Boamah's full player page | |||||||
| Ball Hawk | 8 | 8 | 33 | 8 #13 FBS | 0 | 1.5 | 0 |
Ball hawkReads the quarterback's eyes and takes the ball away. 33 tackles in 8 games. About as many tackles a game as a typical FBS defensive back who plays every week. 36 of 244 CBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate24.2% 84th percentile · FBS corners, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Joel Kpassou's full player page | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 33 | 8 | 27 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 1 |
Hybrid nickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. 27 tackles in 8 games. Fewer tackles a game than most FBS defensive backs who play every week. 358 of 657 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate11.1% 67th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Anthony Mattison's full player page | |||||||
| Cover Corner | 7 | 6 | 19 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
Cover cornerSteady in coverage; doesn't get beat deep and rarely gives up the big play. 138 of 244 CBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate0.0% bottom 10th percentile · FBS corners, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Malik Ganaway's full player page | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 2 | 5 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Hybrid nickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. 358 of 657 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate0.0% bottom 15th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Antonio Smith's full player page | |||||||
| 3 | 8 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 27 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Player | # | G | FG M/A | FG% | XP M/A | Pts | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steady | 36 | 6 | 9/12 | 75 | 14/14 | 41 | 35 |
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | Long | In20 | TB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steady | 25 | 8 | 27 | 1116 | 41.3 | 57 | 9 | 1 |
Net average is unavailable — CFBD's punting feed carries gross yards only, with no return-yardage or touchback deduction.
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | TD | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slot Technician · +0.13 EPA/play | — | 7 | 8 | 154 | 19.3 | 0 | 35 |
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | TD | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slot Technician · +0.13 EPA/play | — | 7 | 7 | 50 | 7.1 | 0 | 22 |
Biggest plays from Missouri State’s games
Official highlights with our numbers: the plays that moved the chance to win most in Missouri State’s games this season, whoever made them.
Q1, 0:53 · Missouri State breaks the tieJ.J. O'Neal takes an interception 47 yards for a pick-sixMissouri State at Delaware, week 8Q1, 0:53 · Missouri State 14, Delaware 747Pick-six47Pick-sixPick-sixN.Minicucci pass intercepted by J.O'Neal at DEL47 J.O'Neal return 47 yards to the DEL00 touchdown, kick good▶Watch from this play
Q1, 9:24 · Marshall tiedMarshall scores a touchdownMarshall at Missouri State, week 3Q1, 9:24 · Marshall 7, Missouri State 0Marshall opened the scoringMarshall opened the scoringC.Del Rio-Wilson pass complete short right to T.Lester caught at MSU35, for 39 yards to the MSU00 touchdown, 1ST DOWN, kick good▶Watch from this play
CBS Sports College Football
Q2, 8:17 · Delaware breaks the tieNick Minicucci finds Scott Moore for a 26-yard touchdownMissouri State at Delaware, week 8Q2, 8:17 · Delaware 21, Missouri State 1426Scott Moore's third touch of the season is a 26-yard touchdown26Scott Moore's third touch of the season is a 26-yard touchdownScott Moore's third touch of the season is a 26-yard touchdownN.Minicucci pass complete deep middle to S.Moore caught at MSU05, for 26 yards to the MSU00 touchdown, 1ST DOWN, kick good▶Watch from this play- Q3, 2:06 · Missouri State down 10Skyler Locklear finds Jeron Askren for a 25-yard touchdownMarshall at Missouri State, week 3Q3, 2:06 · Missouri State 24, Marshall 27Missouri State cut the deficit to 3 in the third quarterMissouri State cut the deficit to 3 in the third quarterS.Locklear pass complete short right to J.Askren caught at MAR21, for 25 yards to the MAR00 touchdown, 1ST DOWN, kick good▶Watch from this play CBS Sports College Football
- Q3, 12:53 · Delaware down 4, takes the leadNick Minicucci finds Jo'Nathan Silver for a 12-yard touchdownMissouri State at Delaware, week 8Q3, 12:53 · Delaware 31, Missouri State 28Go-ahead score for Delaware in the third quarterGo-ahead score for Delaware in the third quarterN.Minicucci pass complete short right to J.Silver caught at MSU06, for 12 yards to the MSU00 touchdown, 1ST DOWN, kick good▶Watch from this play
- Q3, 4:01 · Delaware up 3Nick Minicucci runs 1 yard for a touchdownMissouri State at Delaware, week 8Q3, 4:01 · Delaware 45, Missouri State 35▲14%Delaware’s chance to win, 76% to 90%▲14%Delaware’s chance to win, 76% to 90%N.Minicucci rush middle for 1 yard gain to the MSU00 touchdown, kick good▶Watch from this play
How scary each game got
Missouri State lost at SMU after being 77% to win; the closest win was against Kennesaw State, down to 38%
Tap a game for its score and win chances.
Each bar runs from the lowest to the highest chance our model gave Missouri State during that game; the thick mark is where it started. Numbers are the game week.
Stat leaders
2026 stat leaders · Missouri State
through 8 games
2026 stat leaders · Missouri StateJared Lloyd leads Missouri State with 86 tackles through 8 games.
Roster
Roster
2026+17 more
Recruiting and the portal: top commits · who's gone and who's back
How they play
Missouri State fields a limited offense behind a porous, bend-don't-break defense.
Percentile vs all FBS, based on this season's per-game production. Bar = where this team ranks — right is better.
Player percentiles
Missouri State reads strongest in explosive plays allowed (top 22%) and passing EPA (top 41%); the crux lives in success rate allowed, where Missouri State sits at the 4th percentile.
Offense · strengths lead
Defense · higher bar = harder to play against
Hidden math · special situations
Home-field advantage · 2018–present · FBS opponents
Missouri State is worth +7.1 points more at home than on the road.
Top tenth of FBS, 93rd percentile of 133 programs
36% at home, 20% away against FBS opponents since 2018 (4-7 home, 4-16 away). Interval ±6.8.
The stadium and how the home edge is measured
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge. The books use about 3. Per-team versions were tested and did not hold up (why). Against the closing line, Missouri State has beaten the number by +1.1 more at home than away over 53 games. That is inside the ±8.1 that many games can resolve, so the results cannot tell this stadium from the flat number. That is the honest reading of nearly every FBS stadium.
Plaster Sports Complex seats 17,337 and has averaged 64% full (11,060, 15 games reported). Visitors cover a median 370 miles to get here since 2018 — 57th-shortest of 135 FBS venues, inside the ordinary range. For the home side it is a home crowd more than a home town: only 5% of the 2026 roster (5 of 97 located players) grew up inside 100 miles of the stadium.
Edge = half the gap between average home margin and average road margin, FBS opponents only, non-neutral games since 2018; the interval is 95%. Market line: closing spread, seasons with lines on file. Trip length is straight-line miles from the visiting team's campus to the venue, measured across all 43 home games since 2018.
More in this tab
How they play
Usage splits
How the players get used
From the 2025 season's play-by-play
- Money downJmariyae Robinson is a legitimate money-down target: his 3rd-down conversion rate ranks among the position's best, and his per-target value holds up in that spot too.
- UnderdogJmariyae Robinson produces at a notably lower rate when his team is an underdog than when favored: he fades when the pressure is on, and his per-target value drops too.
- Deep threatAlred Luke is used almost exclusively underneath: a low share of his targets are downfield shots.
- Deep threatJames BlackStrain is used almost exclusively underneath: a low share of his targets are downfield shots.
Position battles
RB room
The carries are split. The job isn’t.
Ramone Green Jr. and Connor Lair split the carries (66/130 vs 64/130) -- but the job isn't split the same way. Connor Lair produces in bigger chunks.
WR/TE room
The targets are split. The job isn’t.
Jmariyae Robinson (WR) and Jeron Askren (TE) split the targets (58/74 vs 16/74) -- but the job isn't split the same way.
Scheme claims
Team identity · competitive snaps only
How Missouri State actually scores
40th percentile quality, 64th percentile boom-dependency. Garbage time excluded from both axes — the same correction that changes the Q4 story below.
View all FBS teams as a table
| Team | Quality percentile | Boom-share percentile |
|---|---|---|
| Air Force | 76th | 3rd |
| Akron | 9th | 90th |
| Alabama | 82nd | 22nd |
| App State | 41st | 48th |
| Arizona | 91st | 16th |
| Arizona State | 20th | 83rd |
| Arkansas | 7th | 93rd |
| Arkansas State | 60th | 32nd |
| Army | 95th | 10th |
| Auburn | 34th | 59th |
| BYU | 83rd | 17th |
| Ball State | 32nd | 72nd |
| Baylor | 36th | 63rd |
| Boise State | 96th | 4th |
| Boston College | 20th | 80th |
| Buffalo | 8th | 88th |
| Central Michigan | 6th | 96th |
| Cincinnati | 88th | 15th |
| Clemson | 10th | 92nd |
| Coastal Carolina | 49th | 57th |
| Colorado | 15th | 86th |
| Colorado State | 88th | 30th |
| Delaware | 63rd | 40th |
| Duke | 74th | 8th |
| East Carolina | 24th | 77th |
| Eastern Michigan | 14th | 80th |
| Florida | 75th | 37th |
| Florida Atlantic | 72nd | 25th |
| Florida International | 2nd | 98th |
| Florida State | 64th | 44th |
| Fresno State | 56th | 52nd |
| Georgia | 92nd | 11th |
| Georgia Southern | 52nd | 40th |
| Georgia State | 77th | 36th |
| Georgia Tech | 30th | 70th |
| Hawai'i | 12th | 88th |
| Houston | 89th | 2nd |
| Illinois | 70th | 38th |
| Indiana | 85th | 18th |
| Iowa | 52nd | 53rd |
| Iowa State | 43rd | 62nd |
| Jacksonville State | 62nd | 41st |
| James Madison | 58th | 35th |
| Kansas | 28th | 66th |
| Kansas State | 48th | 44th |
| Kennesaw State | 23rd | 79th |
| Kentucky | 71st | 21st |
| LSU | 86th | 9th |
| Liberty | 78th | 29th |
| Louisiana | 27th | 69th |
| Louisiana Tech | 60th | 47th |
| Louisville | 94th | 19th |
| Marshall | 36th | 61st |
| Maryland | 17th | 85th |
| Massachusetts | 38th | 60th |
| Memphis | 87th | 20th |
| Miami | 100th | 0th |
| Miami (OH) | 68th | 31st |
| Michigan | 25th | 71st |
| Middle Tennessee | 37th | 60th |
| Minnesota | 4th | 95th |
| Mississippi State | 35th | 65th |
| Missouri | 54th | 49th |
| Missouri State | 40th | 64th |
| NC State | 69th | 28th |
| Navy | 57th | 51st |
| Nebraska | 59th | 32nd |
| Nevada | 1st | 99th |
| New Mexico | 39th | 68th |
| North Carolina | 48th | 45th |
| North Dakota State | 31st | 64th |
| North Texas | 99th | 1st |
| Northern Illinois | 12th | 89th |
| Northwestern | 93rd | 6th |
| Notre Dame | 97th | 5th |
| Ohio | 67th | 43rd |
| Ohio State | 79th | 23rd |
| Oklahoma State | 76th | 14th |
| Ole Miss | 80th | 8th |
| Oregon | 28th | 72nd |
| Oregon State | 92nd | 13th |
| Penn State | 47th | 48th |
| Pittsburgh | 44th | 50th |
| Purdue | 65th | 34th |
| Rice | 18th | 87th |
| Rutgers | 32nd | 76th |
| SMU | 81st | 16th |
| San Diego State | 5th | 94th |
| San José State | 13th | 84th |
| South Alabama | 64th | 27th |
| South Carolina | 55th | 54th |
| South Florida | 42nd | 56th |
| Southern Miss | 3rd | 97th |
| Stanford | 53rd | 55th |
| Syracuse | 24th | 74th |
| TCU | 21st | 75th |
| Temple | 56th | 56th |
| Tennessee | 45th | 42nd |
| Texas | 11th | 91st |
| Texas A&M | 16th | 78th |
| Texas State | 90th | 12th |
| Texas Tech | 50th | 46th |
| Toledo | 84th | 24th |
| Troy | 8th | 92nd |
| Tulane | 33rd | 73rd |
| Tulsa | 68th | 28th |
| UAB | 16th | 81st |
| UCF | 19th | 82nd |
| UCLA | 61st | 36th |
| UConn | 84th | 26th |
| UNLV | 44th | 67th |
| USC | 80th | 12th |
| UTSA | 72nd | 20th |
| Utah | 96th | 7th |
| Utah State | 0th | 100th |
| Vanderbilt | 26th | 76th |
| Virginia | 51st | 39th |
| Virginia Tech | 66th | 33rd |
| Wake Forest | 98th | 4th |
| Washington | 40th | 58th |
| West Virginia | 73rd | 24th |
| Western Kentucky | 4th | 96th |
| Western Michigan | 29th | 68th |
| Wisconsin | 22nd | 84th |
| Wyoming | 46th | 52nd |
Missouri State’s 4th-quarter offense, before and after garbage time
Raw Q4 EPA/play ranks 25th percentile in FBS. Strip out snaps taken with a blowout margin and it climbs to the 70th — the correction is the finding, not a footnote.
Standard downs vs. passing downs
Does Missouri State hold up once the down-and-distance turns against them?
52nd percentile success on standard downs, 30th on passing downs — a 22-point gap between the two.
View all FBS teams as a table
| Team | Standard-downs percentile | Passing-downs percentile |
|---|---|---|
| Air Force | 98th | 23rd |
| Akron | 58th | 34th |
| Alabama | 77th | 57th |
| App State | 33rd | 49th |
| Arizona | 76th | 94th |
| Arizona State | 38th | 61st |
| Arkansas | 71st | 24th |
| Arkansas State | 85th | 59th |
| Army | 93rd | 58th |
| Auburn | 14th | 69th |
| BYU | 86th | 35th |
| Ball State | 31st | 52nd |
| Baylor | 15th | 46th |
| Boise State | 77th | 92nd |
| Boston College | 63rd | 28th |
| Bowling Green | 43rd | 21st |
| Buffalo | 9th | 11th |
| California | 11th | 20th |
| Central Michigan | 36th | 9th |
| Charlotte | 18th | 41st |
| Cincinnati | 68th | 83rd |
| Clemson | 7th | 39th |
| Coastal Carolina | 23rd | 64th |
| Colorado | 16th | 65th |
| Colorado State | 66th | 95th |
| Delaware | 59th | 64th |
| Duke | 21st | 67th |
| East Carolina | 37th | 19th |
| Eastern Michigan | 16th | 30th |
| Florida | 61st | 70th |
| Florida Atlantic | 67th | 87th |
| Florida International | 20th | 53rd |
| Florida State | 30th | 90th |
| Fresno State | 25th | 84th |
| Gardner-Webb | 5th | 23rd |
| Georgia | 98th | 89th |
| Georgia Southern | 60th | 71st |
| Georgia State | 68th | 66th |
| Georgia Tech | 53rd | 40th |
| Hawai'i | 48th | 29th |
| Houston | 87th | 99th |
| Illinois | 73rd | 91st |
| Indiana | 55th | 44th |
| Iowa | 79th | 13th |
| Iowa State | 18th | 31st |
| Jacksonville State | 82nd | 80th |
| James Madison | 45th | 77th |
| Kansas | 52nd | 18th |
| Kansas State | 64th | 68th |
| Kennesaw State | 61st | 16th |
| Kent State | 5th | 21st |
| Kentucky | 90th | 51st |
| LSU | 86th | 98th |
| Liberty | 93rd | 78th |
| Louisiana | 36th | 66th |
| Louisiana Tech | 26th | 79th |
| Louisville | 95th | 72nd |
| Maine | 0th | 86th |
| Marshall | 69th | 32nd |
| Maryland | 34th | 26th |
| Massachusetts | 35th | 38th |
| Memphis | 92nd | 93rd |
| Mercyhurst | 2nd | 34th |
| Miami | 99th | 95th |
| Miami (OH) | 50th | 43rd |
| Michigan | 10th | 89th |
| Michigan State | 23rd | 55th |
| Middle Tennessee | 27th | 64th |
| Minnesota | 32nd | 4th |
| Mississippi State | 66th | 59th |
| Missouri | 34th | 41st |
| Missouri State | 52nd | 30th |
| NC State | 62nd | 77th |
| Navy | 89th | 17th |
| Nebraska | 46th | 85th |
| Nevada | 28th | 27th |
| New Mexico | 55th | 48th |
| New Mexico State | 14th | 36th |
| Norfolk State | 7th | 0th |
| North Carolina | 89th | 73rd |
| North Dakota State | 30th | 45th |
| North Texas | 95th | 84th |
| Northern Illinois | 51st | 14th |
| Northwestern | 88th | 88th |
| Notre Dame | 100th | 43rd |
| Ohio | 82nd | 42nd |
| Ohio State | 84th | 80th |
| Oklahoma | 4th | 50th |
| Oklahoma State | 96th | 86th |
| Old Dominion | 1st | 36th |
| Ole Miss | 81st | 94th |
| Oregon | 39th | 26th |
| Oregon State | 97th | 70th |
| Penn State | 20th | 47th |
| Pittsburgh | 65th | 50th |
| Purdue | 57th | 82nd |
| Rice | 59th | 14th |
| Robert Morris | 2nd | 5th |
| Rutgers | 42nd | 81st |
| SMU | 91st | 82nd |
| Sacramento State | 13th | 6th |
| Sam Houston | 11th | 37th |
| San Diego State | 8th | 54th |
| San José State | 17th | 2nd |
| South Alabama | 44th | 74th |
| South Carolina | 70th | 56th |
| South Florida | 84th | 57th |
| Southern Miss | 48th | 7th |
| Stanford | 40th | 9th |
| Syracuse | 57th | 39th |
| TCU | 70th | 10th |
| Temple | 50th | 68th |
| Tennessee | 75th | 12th |
| Texas | 27th | 61st |
| Texas A&M | 46th | 55th |
| Texas State | 74th | 100th |
| Texas Tech | 64th | 76th |
| Toledo | 73rd | 52nd |
| Troy | 39th | 15th |
| Tulane | 12th | 8th |
| Tulsa | 49th | 7th |
| UAB | 24th | 62nd |
| UCF | 29th | 45th |
| UCLA | 80th | 60th |
| UConn | 72nd | 73rd |
| UL Monroe | 47th | 11th |
| UNLV | 41st | 19th |
| USC | 79th | 97th |
| UT Martin | 6th | 3rd |
| UTEP | 9th | 1st |
| UTSA | 91st | 33rd |
| Utah | 94th | 98th |
| Utah State | 3rd | 76th |
| Vanderbilt | 41st | 32nd |
| Virginia | 83rd | 2nd |
| Virginia Tech | 43rd | 91st |
| Wake Forest | 75th | 96th |
| Washington | 56th | 16th |
| Washington State | 19th | 5th |
| West Virginia | 54th | 75th |
| Western Kentucky | 22nd | 25th |
| Western Michigan | 32nd | 27th |
| Wisconsin | 25th | 22nd |
| Wyoming | 78th | 48th |
Missouri State by half
1st-half offense ranks 33rd percentile in FBS; 2nd-half, 53rd — competitive snaps only, garbage time excluded from both halves.
How much of Missouri State’s number is the schedule?
Raw EPA/play through week 10 is 0.09; 41st percentile once opponent strength is stripped out, it's 0.03. The widest gap came in week 2: -0.24 raw vs. -0.01 adjusted.
Pass defense by zone
What this team throws, and gives up, by depth.
On short throws (≤19 air yards), Missouri State’s passing game completes a completion rate above the FBS mean (69.6% vs 67.0% league-wide, shrunk toward the mean for its 189-play sample) — mid-pack, 110 of 136 qualifying offenses.
On short throws (≤19 air yards), Missouri State’s defense allows a completion rate above the FBS mean (69.0% vs 66.3% league-wide, shrunk toward the mean for its 205-play sample) — mid-pack, 127 of 137 qualifying defenses.
We won’t show a deep-ball (20+ air yards) leaderboard here, on either side of the ball: even a full season of charted plays gives most teams well under 30 deep attempts — too thin to tell a real tendency from noise, so we won’t guess. Same refusal for yards-after-catch allowed and where a team’s attempts land by zone: both measured and both came back statistically indistinguishable from season-to-season noise.
Havoc & trenches
Disruption, run-blocking, and down-and-distance efficiency.
Turnover luck
20% recovery rate on their own fumbles — below the ~52% league baseline.
1 of 5 own fumbles recovered themselves; 5 of 11 forced fumbles recovered, 2026 only.
Takeaways
8% of tipped/broken-up passes have turned into picks — below the ~18% league average, and due for more.
3 interceptions of 38 disrupted passes (35 deflected, 3 intercepted), 2026 only.
Penalties
68 penalties committed, 63 drawn on opponents — netting a 60-yard field-position edge.
549 penalty yards committed vs. 609 drawn on opponents, 2026 season total.
Ratings and comparisons
Ratings
Comparable teams
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Matched on how the programs are built — tier, prestige band, kind of fanbase, conference, voice and roster size — not on this season's stats. A calibration, not a prediction.