The rest of the season
Three real tests left: Marshall 42%, South Alabama 42%, Georgia State 57%
Win out 8% · expect 2.3 of 4 more wins
App State's chance to win each game left, from our model: Georgia State 57%, Marshall 42%, UL Monroe 85%, South Alabama 42%Bar height is our model’s chance in each game left. Dashed line: 50%.
Bowl chance went from 73% to 95%, peaking at 96% before a game
Our model, entering each game. The letter is the result of the game before it.
StandingTied for 4th in the Sun Belt · 2-2 in conference play · All standings
LeadersPassing Malachi Singleton 1,915 · Rushing Jaquari Lewis 431 · Receiving Sam Pickett III 560 All player stats
Updated Wed Nov 4 · through week 9
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| Wk | Date | Our rank | Opp rank | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf | Top performers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 5 | #98 | #194 | −21✓ +31 | Maine | W 55-3 72 | 1-0 | 0-0 | Pass Singleton 291 · Rush Lewis 69 · Rec Pickett III 76 |
| 2 | Sep 12 | #96 | #76 | +6.5✓ +9.5 | @East Carolina | W 27-24 144 | 2-0 | 0-0 | Pass Singleton 267 · Rush Lewis 73 · Rec Pickett III 86 |
| 3 | Sep 19 | #87 | #162 | −16.5✗ −11.5 | Charlotte | W 26-21 136 | 3-0 | 0-0 | Pass Singleton 331 · Rush Lewis 46 · Rec Lofton 90 |
| 4 | Sep 26 | #93 | #37 | +12.5✓ +2.5 | @NC State | L 31-41 140 | 3-1 | 0-0 | Pass Singleton 317 · Rush Lewis 32 · Rec Pickett III 97 |
| 5 | Bye week | ||||||||
| 6 | Oct 10 | #99 | #113 | −8.5✗ −15.5 | Old Dominion | L 3-10 136 | 3-2 | 0-1 | Pass Singleton 72 · Rush Lewis 41 · Rec Howse 25 |
| 7 | Oct 16 | #114 | #160 | −1.5✓ +1.5 | @Coastal Carolina | W 35-32 139 | 4-2 | 1-1 | Pass Singleton 151 · Rush Hasselbeck 125 · Rec Pickett III 78 |
| 8 | Oct 22 | #119 | #37 | +12.5✓ +15.5 | James Madison | W 34-31 151 Roaring | 5-2 | 2-1 | Pass Singleton 271 · Rush Lewis 74 · Rec Branch 73 |
| 9 | Oct 31 | #108 | #74 | +6✗ −10 | @Georgia Southern | L 3-19 125 | 5-3 | 2-2 | Pass Singleton 215 · Rush Lewis 11 · Rec Pickett III 86 |
| 10 | Nov 7 | #109 | #117 | −5.5 | Georgia State | 2:30 pm ET57% to win | |||
| 11 | Nov 14 | #110 | #82 | @Marshall | time TBA42% to win | ||||
| 12 | Nov 21 | UL Monroe | time TBA85% to win | ||||||
| 13 | Nov 27 | @South Alabama | 3 pm ET | ||||||
Win chances are our model for App State, through 8 games. This week's game comes from the playoff simulation, later games from the rating model. They are estimates and move every week.
The small line beside each score is the team's win chance through the game, drawn on one scale for every game. The small number is total plays.
Line is the closing point spread for App State: a minus number means favored. A green check means the team covered it, by the number beside it. A red cross means it fell short by that much.
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Big plays (IsoPPP) | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31 | @Georgia Southern | L 3-19 | 222 | 3 | 16:06 | -0.132 | 34.1% | 1.36 | |
| Oct 22 | James Madison | W 34-31 | 366 | 0 | 33:10 | +0.152 | 41.6% | 1.14 | One-score win |
| Oct 16 | @Coastal Carolina | W 35-32 | 516 | 1 | 33:17 | +0.335 | 51.3% | 1.29 | One-score win |
| Oct 10 | Old Dominion | L 3-10 | 158 | 3 | 21:10 | -0.513 | 26.8% | 0.80 | Season-low EPA/play |
| Sep 26 | @NC State | L 31-41 | 379 | 0 | 23:37 | +0.091 | 36.5% | 1.32 | |
| Sep 19 | Charlotte | W 26-21 | 435 | 2 | 33:28 | +0.067 | 41.0% | 1.39 | Best defensive stand |
| Sep 12 | @East Carolina | W 27-24 | 396 | 0 | 36:06 | +0.170 | 38.4% | 1.40 | Most explosive |
| Sep 5 | Maine | W 55-3 | 647 | 1 | 33:09 | +0.608 | 64.9% | 1.20 | Season-high EPA/play |
| Season average (8 games) | 390 | 1.2 | +0.097 | 41.8% | 1.24 | ||||
App State's wildest games since 2013: comebacks, long shots, line misses
Median odds across sportsbooks · Nov 4. A number with a minus is the favorite: −130 means $130 wins $100. A plus is the underdog: +170 means $100 wins $170.
What fans said
Real posts about each game (they name the opponent, a player or a play), chosen by community score · usernames not shown
The games that decide the season
Recent form · last 10 games
5-5 over the last 10, and lost the last one.
I want to thank our student section, they were awesome the whole game, they stayed the whole game, played every play with us
The open questionwhere does it go from here?
Dowell Loggains inherits a 5-8 losing record and #85 talent, raising questions about whether App State can sustain its Sun Belt relevance amid waning odds and a thin roster.
Statusdeveloping
Written by our model from the storyline records. It can get facts wrong.
Range of outcomes · App State · 2026
Regular-season wins: chance of each total, from the game chances above
5 wins 2%; 6 wins 18%; 7 wins 40%; 8 wins 31%; 9 wins 8%Bars are the chance of each regular-season win total, from our model's chance in each game left, through 8 games. Paler bars are the outer 10% at each end. The closed row comes from the season-path projection, which also plays out conference title games and the CFP.
App State Sun Belt championship odds lengthened, from 16.7% to 6.7% (down 10.0 points) between Nov 1 and Nov 2, 2026. The win total is down 0.1. The market moved and the fan conversation hasn't caught up. Little discussion of a line move usually means the information arrived before the coverage did. Discussion is thin, and the market moved faster than the reaction.
The 'market knows something fans don't' read: when odds move, it's on information.
The 'markets overcorrect' counter: lines move on noise too; the receipts may not hold.
Nothing in our corpus yet.
This event was in 178 of 950 board posts (19%) over the last 60 days, a large share of the conversation. Fan text is shown verbatim and credited to the community it came from; posters stay anonymous.
Board posters are a vocal, self-selected slice of the fanbase.
More in this tab
This week and this season
What it is like to watch them2026 · 5-3
Measured from 8 games · ranks are among Sun Belt teams the same season
App State is the mountain program that walked into the Big House and beat Michigan — and has spent every year since insisting the giant-killer belongs.
Fans here believe the chip is one game wide and forty years deep: App State walked into Michigan Stadium in 2007 and won, and the blue bloods have spent every year since pretending it was an…
App State · Game-day weather
Typical at Kidd Brewer Stadium: kickoff time makes little difference, scores run 88 to 92
Typical weather score at each kickoff time.
Tap a dot to read it.
At kickoff, 112 regular-season Saturdays at each kickoff time, 2018 to 2025. Typical means the average of those Saturdays. It is not a forecast.
Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.
App State is the Sun Belt program whose 2007 Michigan upset + back-to-back FCS national titles + sustained FBS conference success define what G5-disruptor looks like.
The program ledger
since 2025Roster and recruiting
Top 1 commits
No high-engagement r/cfb discussions tracked for this program in the last year.
Fans and ratings
Fan mood index · most recent r/CFB data
More
Each link was checked against two outside sites.
Range of outcomes · App State · 2026