cfb zeitgeistZeitgeist
OFFSEASON · SUMMER 2026 · COMMITMENT SEASON
Heisman / Players / Jaden Barnes /App State

Jaden Barnes

WR · App State · Jr · #15

Below the discourse floor — the honest stats-only state.

608 REC YDS · 55 REC · 7 REC TD

2026 TRANSFERTransferred App State → Charlotte for 2026

Where He Ended Up · Transfer

Transferred to Charlotte

2025App State
2026Charlotte

WR · APP STATE · SUN BELT

Jaden Barnes

  • 3
  • #15
  • 5-8 | 170 lb
  • Mcdonough, GA

CFB Zeitgeist Score

70

Solid starter in the position cohort. Carried by rec tds at the 92nd percentile.

Heisman Heat

Awaiting

Not on the live Heisman board this week.

Fan Belief

Awaiting

Player-specific FI not yet ingested. Falls back to team mood below.

Respect Gap

Awaiting

Coming online with player-level FI.

Reality Gap

Awaiting

Coming online with player-level FI.

ACCOLADE PROBABILITY

Heisman

TOP WR AWARD

Biletnikoff

CONSENSUS

All-American

Player Standing · 17 rungs

Tier 2 · Starter

R06 · Starter

Starter. A locked-in starting role.

Not on team2-deepStarterRecognizedEliteApex

Career Arc

HS
Recruit
No recruit profile
CFB
College
App State
2025
NFL
NFL Draft
Not drafted (yet)

Identity & Role

The durable bio layer: position, size, hometown, and roster role.

PositionWR
Class3
Jersey15
Measurements5-8 | 170 lb
HometownMcdonough, GA
Primary teamApp State

Recruiting Pedigree

How big the prospect was before college, and whether the later career arc beat that expectation.

Top pedigree Not on file No matched recruiting profile in the loaded archive
Composite rating -- Composite rating unavailable for this player
Signed with -- Commitment history unavailable
Origin -- Hometown and high school unavailable
Class Profile Context
No recruiting profile is on file for this player.

Transfer Arc

Portal movement changes role, context, and perception. This keeps that path in one place.

Portal moves 2 Programs changed on file
Latest destination Charlotte 2026
Transfer stars 3-star CFBD transfer rating context
Eligibility Immediate Jan 18, 2026
Season Move Context
2026 App State -> Charlotte 3-star | 0.8600 | Immediate
2025 Austin Peay -> App State 3-star | 0.8400 | Immediate

Heisman Lens

Where the model places this player relative to the rest of the Heisman field.

Current nowcast--Latest modeled ballot order
Season forecast--Where the full season sim points
Win probability--Chance to actually win the trophy
Finalist probability--Chance to make the finalist tier
Ballot probability--Chance to appear anywhere on a ballot
Best official finish--Best completed Heisman placement on file

Heisman Futures

Not yet listed on major futures markets.

No achievements unlocked yet this season.

Selector Grid · 2025

AP
FWAA
AFCA
WCFF
SN
SI

Selector recognition fills in once the major honors lists (AP, FWAA, AFCA, Walter Camp, Sporting News, SI) are scraped and ingested.

Today’s Hot-Take

The Hot-Take engine fires when this player’s percentile profile crosses a defensible threshold (top 10% in a cohort, 100+ snap sample). When it’s quiet, the model is honoring its “must be defensible” rule.

Anti-Take

PENDING

The contrarian read fires when the rules-engine detects a stat that complicates the Hot-Take. Quiet here means the model hasn’t found a defensible counter yet — not that one doesn’t exist.

The Room on Jaden Barnes

Fan sentiment ·

Belief Meter

Awaiting per-cohort signal

Sample 0 mentions
Confidence BELOW-FLOOR

Top Take

Trajectory

Cohort divergence mapbearishbullishheatedcalmNational: 2 mentions · belief +0 · "The cumulative link to the preseason rankings can be found [here]( https://www.r"National
  • National · n=2

Rival Radar

How rival fanbases talk about Jaden Barnes

No rival-bucket mentions in the current season.

2025 Signature · 2025 season

Receiving TDs

7

count

All FBS WRs, min 20 receptions

National rank #36 of 531
Percentile vs All FBS WRs, min 20 receptions 93rd

Why it matters

#36 of 531 All FBS WRs in receiving TDs — 7 TDs on 55 receptions.

Vs cohort

This player 7 (93th)

HIGH · n=55 cohort 531

  • Also strong
  • Receiving yards (total)#143 / 531
  • Yards per reception#349 / 531

Signature Moment

Week 1 at Charlotte — 1 receiving_tds

Result W 34-11

The week the volume broke through — stacked 1 td at Charlotte.

A 3-act season arc returns once this player has six or more games on the ledger.

Season Pace · Projection

Where the receiving totals stand

projecting to 13-game
Through 9g
608Rec yards
55Receptions
7Rec TDs
Per game
67.6Rec yards
6Receptions
1Rec TDs
Projected (13g)
878.2Rec yards
79Receptions
10Rec TDs

To hit 700-yard receiver (currently 608): needs 23/game over remaining 4.

To hit 1,000-yard receiver (currently 608): needs 98/game over remaining 4.

To hit 60-catch season (currently 55): needs 1.2/game over remaining 4.

To hit 80-catch season (currently 55): needs 6.2/game over remaining 4.

To hit 8 receiving TDs (currently 7): needs 0.2/game over remaining 4.

To hit 10 receiving TDs (currently 7): needs 0.8/game over remaining 4.

Why the profile pops beyond receiving

The fast read on the thing that makes this player more than a generic stat line.

The most interesting thing about Jaden Barnes is that he shows up in multiple game states. He is a receiver first, but the profile also includes designed touches and return-game juice, which means his value is not limited to a conventional route tree.

Current place -- -- win | -- finalist
Role load 11.6% Overall usage share
Profile quirk All-purpose load 155 return yds

2025 Season · Final

Traditional stats first. Advanced context underneath.

Last season

WR season snapshot

2025 season snapshot | final

2025 season snapshot | finalData: CFBD player stats + local Heisman modelPeer context: same position + same level
Receptions 55 7 rec TD | #88/1110 (92nd pct)
Receiving yards 608 11.1 per catch | #148/1107 (87th pct)
Scrimmage yards 608 Total offensive yardage | #148/1107 (87th pct)
Player identity What kind of player is this?

30-second read

What kind of player is this?

Target magnet | All-purpose weapon against FBS receiving peers.

Target magnetAll-purpose weapon

2025 Season · Final

2025 season snapshot | final

Receiving

REC
55 92nd
YDS
608 87th
YPR
11.1 43rd
TD
7 97th

Returns

KR YDS
1 3rd
KR AVG
1.0 3rd
PR YDS
154 87th
PR AVG
9.6 65th
RET TD
1 89th

Game Log · Week-by-week

2025 season · 9 games

Box score · CFBD
WkOppRECYDSAVGTDLONGNote
Wk 1W 34-11@ Charlotte613422.3159134-yard receiving day
Wk 2W 20-13vs Lindenwood8718.9121
Wk 3L 22-38@ Southern Miss1013213.2142132-yard receiving day
Wk 6W 27-23vs Oregon State155.005
Wk 7W 41-20@ Georgia State2136.5111
Wk 8L 37-45vs Coastal Carolina5275.418
Wk 9L 21-24@ Old Dominion9637.0118
Wk 11L 23-25vs Georgia Southern1316012.3134Season-high 160 yds
Wk 12L 10-58@ James Madison133.003
Total556089.3759
Season-by-season tables Career rows + per-season box score

Traditional history

Traditional Stats

Season rows up top, career context at the bottom.

Season rows Career row

Season context · Team result + system

2025App State5-8HC: Dowell Loggains · Pass-leaning
SeasonTeam
2025App State5560811.17--
Career1 loaded season5560811.17--
SeasonTeam
2025App State----11541
Career1 loaded season----11541
Advanced layer Usage, value, and context

Advanced metrics second

Advanced Metrics

Usage, value, and opponent-adjusted context.

Usage Value Context
Pass share

The player's share of a team's passing-game involvement. It is the fastest way to see whether the receiver is a true focal point or more of a complementary piece.

Role share

A blended workload view that accounts for catches, designed touches, and any return-game involvement that shapes the overall profile.

Peer percentile

Every percentile is compared against players at the same position and level, so an FBS quarterback is judged against FBS quarterbacks, not the whole sport.

Traditional first

The top tables stick to the stats fans already know from broadcasts and box scores. Advanced context is pushed underneath instead of replacing the basics.

Usage 11.6% 19.8% pass-game share | #94/1137 (92nd pct)
Return yards 155 1 return TD | #231/238 (3rd pct)
Touchdowns 8 Across offense and returns | #37/1111 (97th pct)
Open full stat explorer
0 metrics visible Showing all metrics
Group Metric Value Rank Pct Why it matters
Receiving Receptions 55 #88/1110 92nd pct Volumevs FBS WR
Receiving Receiving yards 608 #148/1107 87th pct Volumevs FBS WR
Receiving Receiving TD 7 #37/1111 97th pct Scoringvs FBS WR
Receiving Yards / catch 11.1 #635/1106 43rd pct Efficiencyvs FBS WR
Returns Kick return yards 1 #231/238 3rd pct Volumevs FBS WR
Returns Punt return yards 154 #31/224 87th pct Volumevs FBS WR
Usage Pass share 19.8% #94/1137 92nd pct Air-game usagevs FBS WR
Receiving Receiving LONG 59 #184/1105 83rd pct Metricvs FBS WR
Returns Punt returns 16 #35/237 86th pct Volumevs FBS WR
Returns Punt return avg 9.6 #78/222 65th pct Efficiencyvs FBS WR
Returns Kick return avg 1.0 #229/236 3rd pct Efficiencyvs FBS WR
Returns Kick returns 1 #169/243 31st pct Volumevs FBS WR
Returns Punt return TD 1 #4/27 89th pct Scoringvs FBS WR
Usage 3rd-down usage 17.8% #15/1137 99th pct Money-down loadvs FBS WR
Usage Passing-down usage 13.3% #87/1137 92nd pct Known-passing sharevs FBS WR
Usage Role share 11.6% #48/1137 96th pct Share of team offensevs FBS WR
Usage Standard-down usage 10.6% #50/1137 96th pct Base-situation sharevs FBS WR
Usage 1st-down usage 8.9% #127/1137 89th pct Early-down loadvs FBS WR
Usage 2nd-down usage 8.9% #175/1137 85th pct Middle-down loadvs FBS WR
Usage Rush share 0.0% #391/1137 66th pct Ground-game usagevs FBS WR

Player Standing

Universal 17-step ladder. Tier pills below; accolade streams nested.

AWAITING CLASSIFICATION

On-team2-deepStartingRecognizedEliteApex

AWAITING CLASSIFICATION · Rung None of 16

Why he’s here

Standing classification populates when honors, Heisman, and roster signals all align.

What moves him up

What moves him down

Accolade streams

StatusAwaiting tracker

Heisman model tracks the top FBS contenders weekly; this player hasn't entered the watch list yet.

Splits · Per-game

2025 season · 9 games

Home/Road · Win/Loss · Season halves

Home vs Road

REC/gYDS/gYPRTD/g
Home4g6.865.87.90.8
Road5g5.669.010.40.8

Win vs Loss

REC/gYDS/gYPRTD/g
Wins4g4.255.810.70.8
Losses5g7.677.08.20.8

First half vs Second half

REC/gYDS/gYPRTD/g
Weeks 1-75g5.471.011.20.8
Weeks 8+4g7.063.26.90.8

Pocket and defense-quality (clean vs. pressure) splits are coming soon.

Savant · Box-rate percentiles

Where this profile ranks vs the WR cohort

70Solid starter
5 metrics · season cumulative

Elite: rec tds (91st). Strength: receptions (83rd). Concern: yards / catch (28th).

Rec TDs#37 / 558 · 92nd pct
7rece
Receptions#88 / 558 · 84th pct
55rece
Rec yards#148 / 558 · 74th pct
608rece
Long catch#164 / 558 · 70th pct
59rece
Yards / catch#396 / 558 · 28th pct
11.1rece

Percentiles versus same-position peers with enough snaps this season, based on box-score rates.

Advanced Savant · WR · 2025

Percentile Card

Advanced opponent-adjusted percentile bars are coming soon for this player.

P4G5All FBS
EPA / dropback
awaiting
CPOE
awaiting
Success rate
awaiting
Explosive rate (20+)
awaiting
aDOT
awaiting
Deep-ball accuracy
awaiting
Pressure-to-sack
awaiting
3rd-down EPA
awaiting
Red-zone TD rate
awaiting
Play-action EPA
awaiting
Scramble EPA
awaiting
Turnover-worthy play rate
awaiting

Advanced Savant

Opponent-adjusted advanced metrics with a cohort filter.

Advanced opponent-adjusted metrics are coming soon for this player. Selected cohort: P4.

Peer Comparator · Fingerprint match

Three closest profiles by box-rate percentile

3 peers · 5 metrics
Jaden BarnesApp StateDonovan FaupelNew Mexico State· 95% simJordyn TysonArizona State· 94% simDevin MccuinUTSA· 92% sim
Rec TDs
92
Barnes
92
Faupel
95
Tyson
95
Mccuin
Receptions
84
Barnes
90
Faupel
90
Tyson
93
Mccuin
Rec yards
74
Barnes
79
Faupel
81
Tyson
84
Mccuin
Long catch
70
Barnes
65
Faupel
68
Tyson
60
Mccuin
Yards / catch
28
Barnes
24
Faupel
36
Tyson
30
Mccuin

Closest peers by overall box-score percentile profile at the same position.

Player DNA

The Slot Technician

Runs precise routes in tight quarters. Volume player who keeps chains moving.

WR

His 2025 production profile sits closest to Brennan Presley’s 2021 season.

Brennan Presley

84%match

Oklahoma State · 2021

#2

Robert Ferrel

Washington State · 2022

81%
#3

Devin Maddox

Toledo · 2021

80%
#4

Elijah Metcalf

Middle Tennessee · 2023

All-Conference USA
78%
#5

Malik Rutherford

Georgia Tech · 2023

78%

Matches Brennan on

Weight
Yards / reception
Reception volume

Through 3 college seasons, his career arc tracks closest to Derick Eugene’s path through Long Island University.

Derick Eugene

98%match

Long Island University · 2021

#2

Elijah Steward

Lafayette · 2025

98%
#3

Hassan Beydoun

Eastern Michigan · 2022

All-MAC
97%
#4

Zack Dobson

Middle Tennessee · 2023

97%
#5

Robert Ferrel

Washington State · 2022

97%

Matches Derick on

Yards per reception

As a junior, his production profile tracks closest to Yamir Knight's junior season at SMU (2025).

Yamir Knight

78%match

SMU · 2025

#2

Javon Robinson

Georgia State · 2025

76%
#3

Dashaun Davis

App State · 2022

75%
#4

Hassan Beydoun

Eastern Michigan · 2022

All-MAC
75%
#5

Alred Luke

Missouri State · 2025

67%

Matches Yamir on

Yards / reception
Total EPA (college ability)
EPA / play (adj)

Differs from Yamir on

Weight (lower)

Supporting Cast · Scheme

Staff and system around the player

2025 season

Head Coach

Dowell Loggains

Pass share

55.6%

508 pass / 405 run

Plays / game

70.2

13 games

OL sack rate (allowed)

6.7%

389 dropbacks · PBP

Scheme: Pass-leaning.

Coaching Lineage · 2025

1 coach
2025
Dowell Loggains
App State

Played his entire career under Dowell Loggains.

Bio · Recruiting · Transfer · Roster

Off-field context — switch tabs to drill into recruit profile, transfer arc, or roster timeline.

HometownMcdonough, GA
Height5'8"
Weight170 lb
Class3
PositionWR
Jersey15

Trophy Case · Detail

Every honor on the ledger, broken out by stream and selector.

Honors

No formal honors on the ledger yet

All-America, all-conference, player-of-the-week, watch-list, and postseason awards land here when they're earned. The absence is the signal: most players never collect formal honors, and that's its own kind of context.

Honors Timeline

Season-end distinction and week-by-week recognition on one timeline.

Season Honor Scope Team / Selector Context
No formal honors on the ledger yet. All-America, all-conference, weekly awards, watch lists, and postseason trophies land here when they’re earned.

Heisman By Year

Modeled rank and official finish by season.

Season Team Role Latest Model Forecast Win Finalist Official Finish Points Context
This player hasn’t appeared on a Heisman ballot tracked by the model.

Roster Timeline

Team, conference, and class by season.

Season Team Conference Pos Class Bio
2025 App State Sun Belt WR 3 No. 15 | 5-8 | 170 lb | Mcdonough, GA