Tulane 38-31 Charlotte (Oct 30, 2026) Final Score

Team pages: Tulane · Charlotte

Tulane4-438

Charlotte1-731Final

Fri, Oct 30 · Jerry Richardson Stadium, Charlotte, N.C. · Crowd 8,106

Tulane beat Charlotte 38-31 in overtime after its win chance fell to 5%.

Winners have been down to 5% or less in about 1 of every 20 games since 2018.

We had Tulane favored. It won.

Next: Tulane vs Tulsa, Sat Nov 7 · 12:00 PM ET · Tulane underdog by 1.5

Next: Charlotte at UAB, Sat Nov 7 · 3:30 PM ET · Charlotte underdog by 10

This is my karma for enjoying everyone else’s nailbiters this season

A Tulane fan

How it swung

The turning point: Harrell 22-yd TD pass to Barnes, Charlotte goes ahead 17-14 (Q2, 4:01). Tulane went from 72% to 45% to win.

Before kickoff, our ratings gave Tulane an 80% chance, and the closing betting line (Tulane was a 8.5-point favorite) put it at 75%.

Blocked field goalQ3 1:0017 unanswered

Tulane · OT

FinalTulane 38-31 CharlotteTulane wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.

The four plays that swung it

1Q2 4:01Harrell 22-yd TD pass to Barnes, Charlotte goes ahead 17-14Tulane 72% → 45% (−27)
2Q3 5:18Daniels 2-yd TD run, cuts it to 24-21Tulane 25% → 46% (+21)
3Q4 10:524th and 1Eley 1-yd TD run, Charlotte leads 31-21Tulane 38% → 12% (−26)
4Q4 0:10Johnson 11-yd TD pass to Roberts, ties it 31-31Tulane 15% → 39% (+24)

The four plays that swung it

1Q2 4:01Harrell 22-yd TD pass to Barnes, Charlotte goes ahead 17-14Charlotte 28% → 55% (+27)
2Q3 5:18Daniels 2-yd TD run, cuts it to 24-21Charlotte 75% → 54% (−21)
3Q4 10:524th and 1Eley 1-yd TD run, Charlotte leads 31-21Charlotte 62% → 88% (+26)
4Q4 0:10Johnson 11-yd TD pass to Roberts, ties it 31-31Charlotte 85% → 61% (−24)

Why do guys think punching someone wearing a helmet is gonna work

Q3 1:00 · r/CFB game thread

What fans said, play by play

The line in bold above each quote is written by our model from the thread’s comments and the play-by-play.

Q2 0:49Charlotte marches on Tulane defense for quick touchdown to take 24-14 leadCHARLOTTE TD!!!!!r/CFB game thread
Q3 8:50Fans discuss Will Hall and Southern Miss as Charlotte trails Tulane 24-14Well the question of “was it Will Hall or was it Southern Miss” seems like a resounding “Both”r/CFB game thread
Q3 1:00Tulane's Stevenson blocks Charlotte's field goal, then punches a player in the helmet
Q4 1:52Charlotte fakes a punt with 15 seconds left, but Tulane stops it to winI thought it would be funny if they faked the punt but didn't think they would actually do it. Gotta say i respect itr/CFB game thread
Q4 0:57Fans criticize Charlotte's clock management as Tulane drives for a tying touchdownAll of this because Charlotte had worse clock management than a 12 year old playing Maddenr/CFB game threadthat game clock operator was fully not paying attention lmaor/CFB game thread

Tulane’s chance to win after every play.

How to read this chart

Starts from the pregame line (Tulane -8.5), at 67% for Tulane (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Outlined diamonds mark rare plays. Under the scores, r/CFB comments per minute from fans with a Charlotte or Tulane flair (54 and 36); both sides share one scale, regulation only. A gold diamond marks a play fans were reacting to.

Watch the plays

The bar and the arrow show Tulane’s chance to win after each play; the logo is the team the play helped.

Every drive

Tulane scored on 5 of its 10 drives; Charlotte on 6 of its 13.

Tulane’s drives are teal, Charlotte’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

From Charlotte’s side

Charlotte’s best moment: Harrell 22-yd TD pass to Barnes, Charlotte goes ahead 17-14 (Q2 4:01). It lifted Charlotte’s win chance by 27 points.

How Charlotte fans took it: “Wow! It feels weird that we even had our hopes up; I can't recall the last time that happened.” r/CFB game thread

When fans got loud

Firestorm

The jump was firestorm; the crowd was steady.

The winner fell to 5%.

Box score

Tulane 38, Charlotte 31

Charlotte covered +8.5 by 1.5. The total, 69, went over 47.5.

Team totals	Tulane	Charlotte
Total yards	467	455
Passing	28 of 36, 284 yds	23 of 36, 239 yds
Rushing	34 for 183 yds	43 for 216 yds
First downs	23	26
Third down	8 of 13	8 of 16
Fourth down	1 of 1	1 of 3
Turnovers	2	0
Penalties	8 for 59 yds	5 for 25 yds
Time of possession	26:13	33:47

Tulane leaders

Passing Trace Johnson 28 of 36, 284 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
Rushing Johnnie Daniels 13 for 99 yds, 2 TD; Jaylin Lucas 4 for 30 yds
Receiving Zycarl Lewis Jr. 3 for 55 yds; Destyn Hill 6 for 51 yds

Charlotte leaders

Passing Conner Harrell 23 of 36, 239 yds, 2 TD
Rushing Henry Rutledge 22 for 121 yds; Khamani Alexander 7 for 55 yds, 1 TD
Receiving Henry Rutledge 4 for 79 yds; Jaden Barnes 8 for 66 yds, 1 TD

No rain through the game

68° at kickoff · no rain recorded

October game-day temperatures at Jerry Richardson Stadium

Drag along the chart, or step through the game.

Fourth quarter, 0:01 left10:36 p.m.

Tulane 31, Charlotte 31 · Charlotte 28% to win

no rain · 58°

Harrell incomplete to Barnes

Measured at Concord airport, 5.6 miles away, and Charlotte / Douglas airport, 14 miles away. Wind and rain are airport readings near the stadium, not on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last three games

Tulane · 3-4

Rated 75th in our preseason ratings, 82nd now.

1-2 in its last three, including a 14-point win over Memphis as a 6.5-point underdog.

L 19-42 vs UTSA No. 36 of 668 teams

lost by 23 as a 3-point underdog

W 31-17 vs Memphis No. 62 of 668 teams

won by 14 as a 6.5-point underdog

L 17-20 @ Army No. 50 of 668 teams

lost by 3 as a 5.5-point underdog

W 24-21 vs Southern Miss No. 87 of 668 teams

won by 3 as a 17.5-point favorite

L 20-31 @ Kansas State No. 26 of 668 teams

lost by 11 as a 20.5-point underdog

W 28-24 vs South Alabama No. 64 of 668 teams

won by 4 as a 9.5-point favorite

L 3-17 @ Duke No. 65 of 668 teams

lost by 14 as a 9.5-point underdog

Last three games

Charlotte · 1-6

Rated 166th in our preseason ratings, 190th now.

1-2 in its last three, capped by a 7-point win over Temple as a 17.5-point underdog.

W 38-31 @ Temple No. 117 of 668 teams

won by 7 as a 17.5-point underdog

L 10-50 @ North Texas No. 66 of 668 teams

lost by 40 as a 27.5-point underdog

L 8-59 vs Memphis No. 77 of 668 teams

lost by 51 as an 18.5-point underdog

L 7-34 vs Louisiana No. 33 of 668 teams

lost by 27 as a 9.5-point underdog

L 21-26 @ App State No. 93 of 668 teams

lost by 5 as a 16.5-point underdog

L 9-41 @ Ole MissTop 25 No. 13 of 668 teams

lost by 32 as a 44.5-point underdog

L 41-43 vs The Citadel No. 210 of 668 teams

lost by 2 as a 20.5-point favorite

Week by week

Charlotte

Wk 3Lat App State21-26
Wk 4Lvs Louisiana7-34
Wk 5Lvs Memphis8-59
Wk 6Lat North Texas10-50
Wk 7Wat Temple38-31

Tulane

Wk 3Lat Kansas State20-31
Wk 4Wvs Southern Miss24-21
Wk 6Lat Army17-20
Wk 7Wvs Memphis31-17
Wk 8Lvs UTSA19-42

Power rating by week

Tulane is rated 8.7 points ahead as of week 8. Our power rating by week; higher is better.

Matchups

Biggest mismatch: Tulane’s rushing EPA against Charlotte, 63 points

Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.

Tulane’s rushing EPA against Charlotte’s defense
Tulane offense, 66th percentile · Charlotte defense, 3rd
Tulane’s explosive plays against Charlotte’s defense
Tulane offense, 100th percentile · Charlotte defense, 53rd
Tulane’s EPA/play against Charlotte’s defense
Tulane offense, 42nd percentile · Charlotte defense, 4th

Season profile, all the rows

Season profile

TulaneCharlotte

EPA/play, offense

EPA/play, defense

Success rate, offense

Success rate, defense

Explosive-play rate, offense

Explosive-play rate, defense

Rush EPA, offense

Rush EPA, defense

Pass EPA, offense

Pass EPA, defense

The series

Tulane leads the series 2-0

2 meetings since 2024 · Tulane has won the last 2

2025Tulane 27-0
2024Tulane 34-3

Each line is Charlotte’s chance to win through that meeting.

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

Charlotte fans are in a better mood than Tulane fans (50th percentile vs 24th among FBS fanbases), even with Tulane favored.

Tulane favored by 8.5 · Total 47.5

How games like this usually go

Tulane by 8.5: the game against the usual path

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 449 games since 2025 with a favorite of 7.5 to 14.5 points.

The market

The spread moved 5 points toward Charlotte.

The total rose 2 points.

The books’ cut: 4.3%, the margin built into the odds

Home field

Charlotte has had no measurable home edge since 2018 — +1.0 points (±4.0), home against road — 6th percentile of FBS.

35% at home, 24% on the road against FBS opponents (14-26 home, 12-37 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -8.0 at home vs. away over 97 games — outside the ±6.0 noise, one of the few buildings where results say more.

Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. The visitors travel about 659 miles to get here.

The story going in

Charlotte snaps FBS-high 15-game losing streakOct 19, 2026

Where next

Conference standings

Going into this game: place in the conference, then conference record.

Charlotte11th1-2
Tulane7th1-2

Full American Athletic standings

Tulane beats Charlotte 38-31 in overtime