The rest of the season
Two real tests left: Western Carolina 24%, Furman 51%
Win out 10% · expect 1.6 of 3 more wins
The Citadel's chance to win each game left, from our model: Furman 51%, VMI 84%, Western Carolina 24%Bar height is our model’s chance in each game left. Dashed line: 50%.
LeadersPassing Nick Billoups 433 · Rushing Gavin Garcia 690 · Receiving Braylon Knauth 176 All player stats
Updated Wed Nov 4 · through week 9
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| Wk | Date | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf | Top performers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aug 29 | @Wofford | L 14-42 | 0-1 | 0-1 | Pass Hayes 88 · Rush Hayes 91 · Rec Abdullah 32 |
| 1 | Sep 5 | @Charlotte | W 43-41 137 | 1-1 | 0-1 | Pass Billoups 91 · Rush Garcia 137 · Rec Zamor 56 |
| 2 | Sep 12 | Charleston Southern | L 20-26 | 1-2 | 0-1 | Pass Hayes 73 · Rush Garcia 84 · Rec Lorino III 33 |
| 3 | Bye week | |||||
| 4 | Sep 26 | Chattanooga | L 8-27 | 1-3 | 0-2 | Pass Billoups 61 · Rush Garcia 60 · Rec Knauth 16 |
| 5 | Oct 3 | @South Carolina State | W 34-31 | 2-3 | 0-2 | Pass Hayes 127 · Rush Garcia 167 · Rec Abdullah 84 |
| 6 | Oct 10 | East Tennessee State | L 16-34 | 2-4 | 0-3 | Pass Hill 81 · Rush Garcia 70 · Rec Knauth 73 |
| 7 | Oct 17 | @Texas A&M | L 0-41 122 | 2-5 | 0-3 | Pass Billoups 38 · Rush Garcia 46 · Rec Johnson 32 |
| 8 | Oct 24 | Tennessee Tech | L 13-28 | 2-6 | 0-4 | Pass Billoups 8 · Rush Billoups 74 · Rec Hobgood 5 |
| 9 | Oct 31 | @Mercer | L 19-28 | 2-7 | 0-5 | Pass Billoups 143 · Rush Boyle 63 · Rec Benjamin 55 |
| 10 | Nov 7 | Furman | 2 pm ET51% to win | |||
| 11 | Nov 14 | @VMI | 12 pm ET84% to win | |||
| 12 | Nov 21 | @Western Carolina | 1 pm ET24% to win | |||
Win chances are our model for The Citadel, through 9 games. This week's game comes from the playoff simulation, later games from the rating model. They are estimates and move every week.
The small line beside each score is the team's win chance through the game, drawn on one scale for every game. The small number is total plays.
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Big plays (IsoPPP) | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31 | @Mercer | L 19-28 | — | — | — | +0.153 | 34.3% | 1.51 | |
| Oct 24 | Tennessee Tech | L 13-28 | — | — | — | −0.217 | 27.5% | 0.69 | Season-low EPA/play |
| Oct 17 | @Texas A&M | L 0-41 | 183 | 0 | 33:59 | −0.198 | 32.2% | 1.12 | Defense's roughest night |
| Oct 10 | East Tennessee State | L 16-34 | — | — | — | −0.019 | 26.9% | 1.95 | Most explosive |
| Oct 3 | @South Carolina State | W 34-31 | — | — | — | +0.340 | 41.1% | 1.72 | One-score win |
| Sep 26 | Chattanooga | L 8-27 | — | — | — | −0.193 | 36.4% | 1.06 | |
| Sep 12 | Charleston Southern | L 20-26 | — | — | — | +0.108 | 36.0% | 1.34 | Best defensive stand |
| Sep 5 | @Charlotte | W 43-41 | 400 | 0 | 29:45 | +0.375 | 48.4% | 1.33 | Season-high EPA/play |
| Aug 29 | @Wofford | L 14-42 | — | — | — | +0.015 | 47.9% | 0.88 | Blowout loss |
| Season average (9 games) | 292 | 0.0 | +0.040 | 36.7% | 1.29 | ||||
The games that decide the season
Recent form · last 10 games
2-8 over the last 10, and lost the last four.
Range of outcomes · The Citadel · 2026
Regular-season wins: chance of each total, from the game chances above
2 wins 6%; 3 wins 40%; 4 wins 44%; 5 wins 10%Bars are the chance of each regular-season win total, from our model's chance in each game left, through 9 games. Paler bars are the outer 10% at each end. The closed row comes from the season-path projection, which also plays out conference title games and the FCS playoff.
More in this tab
What it is like to watch them2026 · 2-7
Measured from 9 games · ranks are among Southern teams the same season
The Citadel is the military college where cadets become commissioned officers — football is measured by discipline and honor as much as wins, and the program competes in the Southern Conference as a unique institutional mission, not a professional pipeline.
The Citadel is a senior military college where football is played by cadets bound for commissioned service. The Bulldogs compete in the Southern Conference as an FCS program built on discipline, honor, and the unique mission of developing officers, not recruits.
Each link was checked against two outside sites.
Range of outcomes · The Citadel · 2026