Charleston Southern beats The Citadel 26-20 in 2 overtimes

Team pages: Charleston Southern · The Citadel

Charleston Southern1-226
The Citadel1-220Final
Sat, Sep 12 · Johnson Hagood Stadium, Charleston, S.C. · Crowd 9,875ESPN+

Charleston Southern beat The Citadel 26-20 in 2 overtimes.

We had The Citadel favored. Charleston Southern won.

Next: Charleston Southern beat Point University 65-0, Sat Sep 19

Next: The Citadel lost to Chattanooga 27-8, Sat Sep 26

How it swung

The turning point: Watters 9-yd TD run, Charleston Southern goes ahead 26-20 (2OT). Charleston Southern went from 44% to 100% to win.

Before kickoff, our ratings gave Charleston Southern a 31% chance, and the closing betting line (Charleston Southern was a 3-point underdog) put it at 40%.

Down to a 13% chance in the first quarter, Charleston Southern still won.

Up to an 87% chance in the first quarter, The Citadel still lost.

TargetingQ2 1:04
FinalCharleston Southern 26-20 The CitadelCharleston Southern wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.
50%10%25%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q41OT2OT50% at halfThe CitadelLowest 13%Won26-2012345+25−32+40−42+56ScoresTargeting
50%10%25%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4OT50% at halfThe CitadelLowest 13%Won26-201ScoresTargeting
50%10%25%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q41OT2OT50% at halfThe CitadelHigh 87%Lost20-2612345−25+32−40+42ScoresTargeting
50%10%25%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4OT50% at halfThe CitadelHigh 87%Lost20-261ScoresTargeting

The five plays that swung it

  1. 1Q2 2:414th and 2Hayes incomplete to Hobgood, turnover on downsCharleston Southern 32% → 57% (+25)
  2. 2Q4 1:59FumbleWright 4-yd run, fumblesCharleston Southern 70% → 38% (−32)
  3. 3Q4 0:2842-yd puntCharleston Southern 30% → 70% (+40)
  4. 4OTGarcia 2-yd TD run, ties it 20-20Charleston Southern 75% → 33% (−42)
  5. 52OTWatters 9-yd TD run, Charleston Southern goes ahead 26-20Charleston Southern 44% → 100% (+56)

The five plays that swung it

  1. 1Q2 2:414th and 2Hayes incomplete to Hobgood, turnover on downsThe Citadel 68% → 43% (−25)
  2. 2Q4 1:59FumbleWright 4-yd run, fumblesThe Citadel 30% → 62% (+32)
  3. 3Q4 0:2842-yd puntThe Citadel 70% → 30% (−40)
  4. 4OTGarcia 2-yd TD run, ties it 20-20The Citadel 25% → 67% (+42)
  5. 52OTWatters 9-yd TD run, Charleston Southern goes ahead 26-20The Citadel 56% → 0% (−56)
Charleston Southern’s chance to win after every play.
How to read this chartStarts from the pregame line (The Citadel -3), at 36% for Charleston Southern (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Outlined diamonds mark rare plays.

Every drive

Charleston Southern scored on 4 of its 13 drives; The Citadel on 4 of its 12.

Charleston Southern’s drives are teal, The Citadel’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

own goalgoal lineQ1Charleston Southern: Punt, from 65 yards out to 61PuntThe Citadel: Touchdown, from 71 yards out to 0TouchdownCharleston Southern: Punt, from 75 yards out to 74PuntThe Citadel: Punt, from 69 yards out to 65PuntCharleston Southern: Turned over on downs, from 24 yards out to 5DownsThe Citadel: Turned over on downs, from 85 yards out to 75DownsCharleston Southern: Punt, from 65 yards out to 66PuntQ2Charleston Southern: Field goal, from 65 yards out to 30Field goalCharleston Southern: Turned over on downs, from 65 yards out to 100DownsThe Citadel: Punt, from 36 yards out to 50PuntThe Citadel: End of half, from 75 yards out to 75End of halfQ3The Citadel: Field goal, from 75 yards out to 26Field goalCharleston Southern: Punt, from 75 yards out to 71PuntThe Citadel: Field goal, from 76 yards out to 19Field goalQ4Charleston Southern: Punt, from 65 yards out to 52PuntThe Citadel: Punt, from 94 yards out to 90PuntCharleston Southern: Field goal, from 50 yards out to 22Field goalThe Citadel: Interception, from 75 yards out to 71InterceptionCharleston Southern: Fumble, from 65 yards out to 32FumbleThe Citadel: Punt, from 68 yards out to 62PuntCharleston Southern: End of game, from 80 yards out to 76End of gameOTCharleston Southern: Touchdown, from 25 yards out to 0TouchdownThe Citadel: Touchdown, from 25 yards out to 0TouchdownOTThe Citadel: Missed field goal, from 25 yards out to 25Missed FGCharleston Southern: Touchdown, from 25 yards out to 0Touchdown

From The Citadel’s side

The Citadel’s best moment: Garcia 2-yd TD run, ties it 20-20 (OT). It lifted The Citadel’s win chance by 42 points.

Too close to call on 55% of plays. The winner fell to 13%.

Box score

Charleston Southern 26, The Citadel 20

Charleston Southern covered +3 by 9. The total, 46, went over 45.5.

Charleston Southern leaders

  • Passing Lek Powell 8 of 16, 84 yds
  • Rushing Hakeem Watters 11 for 56 yds, 1 TD; Harry Smalls 11 for 39 yds, 1 TD
  • Receiving Quay Kindell 2 for 24 yds; TJ Smith 2 for 24 yds

The Citadel leaders

  • Passing Quentin Hayes 3 of 14, 73 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
  • Rushing Gavin Garcia 23 for 84 yds, 1 TD; Quentin Hayes 19 for 67 yds
  • Receiving Michael Lorino III 1 for 33 yds, 1 TD; Braylon Knauth 1 for 31 yds

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last two games

Charleston Southern · 0-2

Rated 242nd in our preseason ratings, 219th now, up 23 spots.

Two straight losses.

L 0-31 @ Georgia Southern #98 of 668

lost by 31 as a 28.5-point underdog

L 17-20 @ Lindenwood #170 of 668

lost by 3 as a 7.5-point underdog

Charleston Southern lost 17-20 at Lindenwood. Chance to win started at 25%, low 2%, high 41%.

Last two games

The Citadel · 1-1

Rated 203rd in our preseason ratings, 210th now.

1-1 in its last two, capped by a 2-point win over Charlotte as a 20.5-point underdog.

W 43-41 @ Charlotte #179 of 668

won by 2 as a 20.5-point underdog

L 14-42 @ Wofford #194 of 668

lost by 28 as a 7.5-point underdog

The Citadel lost 14-42 at Wofford. Chance to win started at 20%, low under 1%, high 29%.

Week by week

The Citadel

Wk 1: L 14-42 at Wofford▼28WoffordWk 1: W 43-41 at Charlotte▲2Charlotte
  • Wk 1Lat Wofford14-42
  • Wk 1Wat Charlotte43-41

Charleston Southern

Wk 1: L 17-20 at Lindenwood▼3LindenwoodWk 1: L 0-31 at Georgia Southern▼31Georgia Southern
  • Wk 1Lat Lindenwood17-20
  • Wk 1Lat Georgia Southern0-31

The series

The Citadel leads the series 7-6

13 meetings since 2003 · The Citadel won the last meeting

The Citadel wonCharleston Southern won2003: The Citadel by 542005: The Citadel by 142006: Charleston Southern by 32007: The Citadel by 212012: The Citadel by 352013: Charleston Southern by 32014: Charleston Southern by 22015: Charleston Southern by 132015: Charleston Southern by 82018: The Citadel by 292019: The Citadel by 92021: Charleston Southern by 172024: The Citadel by 120032024
  • 2024The Citadel 22-21
  • 2021Charleston Southern 38-21
  • 2019The Citadel 22-13
  • 2018The Citadel 43-14
  • 2015Charleston Southern 14-6

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

Our model and the betting line don’t fully agree on The Citadel’s chances here.

50-50Model · 69%Line · 60%Charleston SouthernThe Citadel

The Citadel favored by 3 · Total 45.5

How games like this usually go

The Citadel by 3: the game against the usual path

50%90%Q1Q2Q3Q450%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 253 games since 2025 with a favorite of under 3.5 points.

The market

The spread moved 4.5 points toward The Citadel.

opened +1.5now −3

Spread: +1.5 → −3

The books’ cut: 5.4%, the margin built into the odds

Home field

The Citadel has been 4.4 points worse at home than on the road since 2018 — worse at home, 0th percentile.

0% at home, 17% on the road against FBS opponents (0-1 home, 2-10 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -9.6 at home vs. away over 50 games — outside the ±7.8 noise, one of the few buildings where results say more.

Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. The visitors travel about 14 miles to get here.

Where next