Sun Belt Georgia Southern

Head coach Clay Helton · 5th season · 31-29 at Georgia Southern

Record4-43-1 Sun Belt · 2nd
Conference title10%to win the Sun Belt
Nextvs MarshallSat Nov 7 · 3:30 pm ET

The rest of the season

4 of 4 games under 70%, the hardest: Louisiana Tech 40%

Win out 10% · expect 2.3 of 4 more wins

Georgia Southern's chance to win each game left, from our model: Marshall 54%, Georgia State 69%, Troy 69%, Louisiana Tech 40%

Bar height is our model’s chance in each game left. Dashed line: 50%. Black tick: the betting line’s chance, shown where it differs from ours by 20 points or more.

Conference title chance went from 5% to 10%, peaking at 10% before a game

5%0%L6%L3%L6%W3%L9%W10%W

Our model, entering each game. The letter is the result of the game before it.

Standing2nd in the Sun Belt · 3-1 in conference play · All standings

LeadersPassing Max Johnson 1,928 · Rushing David Mbadinga 239 · Receiving Alex Taylor 435 All player stats

The nationunrankedAP / Coaches
The model#67 CFB ZeitgeistPublic ratings: SP+ #94 (-4.8) · FPI #81
The marketGeorgia Southern by 10.5Betting line vs Marshall · our model 54% Georgia Southern

Updated Wed Nov 4 · through week 9

Follow Georgia Southern:athletics siteYouTube

Schedule and results

Georgia Southern · 2026 schedule and results4-4Balanced slateAverage opponent win rate 57% · 1 opponent played so far is in the AP top 25 now.Our rank entering each game: #99 to #74
WkDateOur rankOpp rankLineOpponentResultRecordConfTop performers
1Sep 5#99#242−28.5✓ +2.5Charleston SouthernW 31-0 1371-00-0Pass Johnson 281 · Rush Samuel 46 · Rec Hollins 106
2Sep 12#98#12+20.5✓ +5.5@ClemsonL 7-22 140Georgia Southern lost 7-22 at Clemson. Chance to win started at 6%, low under 1%, high 8%.1-10-0Pass Johnson 244 · Rush Mbadinga 11 · Rec Hollins 97
3Sep 19#85#63+3.5✗ −0.5@Jacksonville StateL 27-31 121Georgia Southern lost 27-31 at Jacksonville State. Chance to win started at 41%, low 4%, high 89%.1-20-0Pass Johnson 187 · Rush Mbadinga 103 · Rec Dallas 43
4Sep 26#84#12+17.5✓ +3.5HoustonL 28-42 128Georgia Southern lost 28-42 vs Houston. Chance to win started at 16%, low under 1%, high 20%.1-30-0Pass Johnson 284 · Rush Mbadinga 37 · Rec Taylor 119
5Oct 3#84#170−2.5✓ +4.5@Coastal CarolinaW 31-24 126Georgia Southern won 31-24 at Coastal Carolina. Chance to win started at 51%, low 48%, high better than 99%.2-31-0Pass Johnson 233 · Rush Bryan 88 · Rec Helms 89
6Oct 10#93#39+7✓ +4James MadisonL 24-27 142Georgia Southern lost 24-27 vs James Madison. Chance to win started at 39%, low 2%, high 67%. Firestorm2-41-1Pass Johnson 343 · Rush Woodgett 65 · Rec Dallas 111
7Oct 15#80#112−3✓ +5@Old DominionW 23-15 132Georgia Southern won 23-15 at Old Dominion. Chance to win started at 52%, low 26%, high better than 99%.3-42-1Pass Helton 205 · Rush Woodgett 77 · Rec Taylor 75
8Bye week
9Oct 31#74#108−6✓ +10App StateW 19-3 125Georgia Southern won 19-3 vs App State. Chance to win started at 74%, low 67%, high better than 99%.4-43-1Pass Johnson 327 · Rush Bryan 42 · Rec Taylor 93
10Nov 7#70#88−10.5Marshall3:30 pm ET54% to win
11Nov 14#69#123@Georgia Statetime TBA69% to win
12Nov 21@Troytime TBA69% to win
13Nov 28Louisiana Techtime TBA
How to read this table

Win chances are our model for Georgia Southern, through 8 games. This week's game comes from the playoff simulation, later games from the rating model. They are estimates and move every week.

The small line beside each score is the team's win chance through the game, drawn on one scale for every game. The small number is total plays.

Line is the closing point spread for Georgia Southern: a minus number means favored. A green check means the team covered it, by the number beside it. A red cross means it fell short by that much.

Advanced box score (EPA, success rate, big plays)▼
DateOppResultYdsTOTOPEPA/playSuccess%Big plays (IsoPPP)Note
Oct 31App StateW 19-3436043:54+0.16242.0%1.10
Oct 15@Old DominionW 23-15405136:26+0.17747.4%1.02One-score win
Oct 10James MadisonL 24-27465228:43+0.17447.8%1.29Best success rate
Oct 3@Coastal CarolinaW 31-24407026:34+0.24944.1%1.33One-score win
Sep 26HoustonL 28-42355131:21+0.26847.8%1.33Season-high EPA/play
Sep 19@Jacksonville StateL 27-31369136:23+0.03846.6%0.94One-score loss
Sep 12@ClemsonL 7-22266128:18-0.10225.8%1.34Season-low EPA/play
Sep 5Charleston SouthernW 31-0513135:56+0.24445.6%1.28Best defensive stand
Season average (8 games)4020.9+0.15143.4%1.20

Georgia Southern's wildest games since 2013: comebacks, long shots, line misses

What’s ahead

The forecast
Offense solidPass-first, spreadMethodical, ball-control

Season expectations

Sun Belt title#10 in market+425

Median odds across sportsbooks · Nov 4. A number with a minus is the favorite: −130 means $130 wins $100. A plus is the underdog: +170 means $100 wins $170.

Today’s games across college football

What fans said

What fans said

W 19-3 vs App State

Georgia Southern fans
r/CFB
“Thanks, this is why our rivalry is one of the best.”
3d ago
r/CFB
“Just stiff armed him into the earth for that td”
3d ago

W 23-15 at Old Dominion

Georgia Southern fans
r/CFB
“You picked a true sicko game to watch.”
2w ago
r/CFB
“my favorite part of this game has been seeing which coach looks more dumbfounded”
2w ago

Real posts about each game (they name the opponent, a player or a play), chosen by community score · usernames not shown

The games that decide the season

The games that decide the season

Sat Nov 14Modern Hateat Georgia State · on the road

Recent form · last 10 games

Georgia Southern has won three of its last five.

6-4 over the last 10, and won the last two.

Streak W2Last 5 · 3-2Last 10 · 6-4
We both in our conference get four games under our belt, learning a lot about our football teams, and now trying to go 1-0 on the week and what starts the conference season
Helton · Thegeorgeanne3 days after Georgia Southern's 2026 game against Houston

Who to root for this week

Our simulation, 20,000 seasons with this one game forced each way. Only games that move the chance by two points or more are listed.

1 storyline developing

What Georgia Southern’s season is really about

The open questionwhere does it go from here?

Market swing2026-10-30new

Georgia Southern Sun Belt championship odds shortened, from 3.2% to 12.5% (up 9.3 points) between Oct 29 and Oct 30, 2026.

The contextwin total up 0.1

Statusdeveloping

How past storylines here turned out

Died downGeorgia Southern's offensive coordinator change has died down — no clear next chapter yet.

Range of outcomes · Georgia Southern · 2026

Georgia Southern’s most likely regular season is 6-6. 97% of outcomes land from 5-7 to 8-4.

Regular-season wins: chance of each total, from the game chances above

4 wins 3%; 5 wins 17%; 6 wins 37%; 7 wins 33%; 8 wins 10%
What a title game and a playoff run could add
Floor5-7No postseason.
Base7-6A bowl game.
Ceiling9-4A bowl game, 2 more wins.

Bars are the chance of each regular-season win total, from our model's chance in each game left, through 8 games. Paler bars are the outer 10% at each end. The closed row comes from the season-path projection, which also plays out conference title games and the CFP.

More in this tab

This week and this season

Worth watchingGames average 44 combined points, rock fights

What it is like to watch them2026 · 4-4

Game feel44rock fightscombined pts / game13th highest-scoring of 14 in the Sun Belt
Heart rate2-2some dramain one-score games (4 of 8)6th most one-score games of 14 in the Sun Belt
Margin+3.2competitiveavg scoring margin6th best margin of 14 in the Sun Belt
Tempo70average paceoffensive plays / game5th fastest of 14 in the Sun Belt
Big plays1.20some popexplosiveness (IsoPPP)10th most explosive of 14 in the Sun Belt
Home crowd22,479avg attendance6th biggest crowds of 14 in the Sun Belt

Measured from 8 games · ranks are among Sun Belt teams the same season

Team storyThe story of this team right now, in one line.
The weekly grind

Georgia Southern won six national titles running the option through everybody, and Statesboro still carries the chip of a program told all of it stopped counting the day it joined the big league.

Title DroughtSince 2014 · 12 yrs

Statesboro is two hours from Athens and a world away from the recruiting machine that never once scheduled them; Eagles fans wear the snub like a letterman jacket and would trade a season to take…

Read the full program story ↓
Game-day weatherKickoff-time weather at home, and the forecast in game week.

Georgia Southern · Game-day weather

Typical at Allen E. Paulson Stadium: 7:30 pm Saturdays score 96, noon and 3:30 pm Saturdays 86

  • noon: 86, Mixed
  • 3:30 pm: 86, Mixed
  • 7:30 pm: 96, Comfortable

Typical weather score at each kickoff time.

Tap a dot to read it.

At kickoff, 113 regular-season Saturdays at each kickoff time, 2018 to 2025. Typical means the average of those Saturdays. It is not a forecast.

Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.

Game dayWhat a Saturday in this stadium actually feels like.
The experience

Georgia Southern is the Sun Belt program whose 1985-2000 6 FCS national championships dynasty + 2014 FBS reclassification + 2014 Sun Belt championship in first FBS season define what historic-Statesboro-football looks like.

Offense: SolidRun/Pass: Pass-first, spreadStyle: Methodical, ball-control
Open questionsThe unresolved questions this season keeps asking.

The story

Read the Georgia Southern story →

Roster and recruiting

Roster6% of production back, talent #78

Roster reload: Georgia Southern

2026 snapshot, Nov 4
Returning Production6%Low continuity / heavy reload
Talent Composite#78 nationally247 composite 634.2
Portal Additions17Primary repair: WR
Portal Losses18Primary pressure: EDGE
Draft Loss0No NFL Draft departures recorded
Recruiting Reload#89Depth class
WRin 7 - Alex Taylor3.60out 3 - Carmelo Mays3.49Need Filled
current room: 192 lbs avg (2025 roster)
Slot Technicianwins underneath on volume and route precision
Transferred in
EDGEin 1 - Anthony Bynum3.30out 4 - Amari Wilson3.50Starter Risk
Thumperfills the run lane and blitzes off the edge
Transferred in
IOLin 2 - Mo Clipper Jr.3.50out 3 - Johnnie Brown III3.50Downgrade
current room: 293 lbs avg (2025 roster)
CBin 4 - Aaron Sears3.50out 0Need Filled
current room: 185 lbs avg (2025 roster)
QBin 1 - Max Johnson3.49out 2 - JC French3.60Downgrade
current room: 199 lbs avg (2025 roster)
Pocket Surgeonpicks you apart underneath and protects the ball
Third program
DLin 0out 2 - Da'Shawn Davis3.49Starter Risk
current room: 271 lbs avg (2025 roster)
Full roster (122 players)
UNKAaron Sears, Jakyri Jones, Noah Mangham, O'Marion Brown
DBAJ Brown Sr., Aidan McCowan, Carlo Thompson, Chace Calicut, Chance Gamble, Dariyon Gordon, Devin Collier, Fabo Chaney, Greg Delaine, Jadaan Cooper, Jaquari Brown, Jayden Jackson, Jaylen Bentley, Max Haertel, Phillip Gladney, RJ Isaac, Temirez Williams Jr., Tracy Hill Jr., Tylin Drakeford
DEAnthony Bynum
DLAmari Wilson, Caleb Ellis, Caleb Moore, Eli Anders, Elijah Fears, JaMari Whitehead, Jeremiah Ticket, Kebba Secka, Korey Jordan, Kwon McGinney, Latrell Bullard, MJ Stroud, Marcus Downs, Nigel Eldridge Jr., Stephone Ross, Uche Iloh
IOLCole Norred
LBAlec Upshaw, Brandon Alford, Brandon Tyson, Braxtin McLester, CJ Allen Jr., Caleb Butler, Colton Veltkamp, DA Logan, Diego Aviles, Ethan Johnson, Festus Davies, Holden Trice, Jacob Hammonds, Kru Casey, Rashon Myles Jr., Xavier Brown
LSChason Glenn, Gaines Wood, Gavin Kurpis
OLBrandon Stoner, Colin Alexander, Ethan Williams, Grady Howell, Jace Molden, Jaden Johnson, Jalen Burgess, Jaylen Slaughter, Jayvon Perry, Josh Raymond, Joshua Ford, Kingtriton Samuela, Liam Thompson, Matthew Williams, Mo Clipper Jr., Ty Furnish, Zach Pearson
OTCaelan Williams
PAlex Smith
PKBlake Ford, Donal Dempsey, TJ Hartley, Tripp Bryant
QBCharlie Johnston, Harrison Faulkner Jr., Max Johnson, Trey Townsend, Turner Helton, Weston Bryan
RBBre'Lan Mareus, Bryce Baker, David Mbadinga, Foster Orris, Jamarian Samuel, Taeo Todd, Terrance Gibbs, Ty Cummings, Tyrese Woodgett
TEAubrey Heath, Henry Gregory, JP Mikhael, JQ Crosby, Jack Berquist, Jackson Long, River Helms
WRAlex Taylor, Andre Greene Jr., Antavious Murphy, Ashton Hollins, Brandon Paul, CJ Dockery, Cam'Ron King, Jarvis Mathurin, Jeremiah Ware, Josh Dallas, Kam Mikell, Kevin Douglas, King Phillips, Noble Johnson, Peyton Plott, Taylor Bradshaw, Zay Hilliard
Top commits

Top 1 commits

2027 class
★★★☆☆
Terrance Lewis Jr.
QB · Ocala, FL
#1523 national
Recruiting buzzWhat fans say about the incoming class right now.

r/cfb this year

[Postgame Thread] Georgia Southern Defeats Appalachian State 29-10
415 upvotes · Dec 2025
[Postgame Thread] Georgia Southern Defeats Appalachian State 25-23
283 upvotes · Nov 2025
[Game Thread] Birmingham Bowl: Appalachian State vs. Georgia Southern (2:00 PM ET)
80 upvotes · Dec 2025

Top community posts · last 12 months · r/cfb

Fans and ratings

Mood vs. historyFan mood is higher than 90% of FBS programs
↑

Fan confidence higher than any point since 2020

90th percentile among FBS programs

Fans vs. the lineWhere fans and the betting market read this team differently.
Fan vs. market↑
90th
Fan mood
(percentile among FBS)
4.5
Sportsbook win total
(14th among FBS)
Fans 76pp more bullish than market implies
Win total consensus · 3 books
RivalsRival pulse: Georgia State bullish, Modern Hate App State bullish

Rival pulse

Georgia State
Bullish
+34
Modern Hate
App State
Bullish
+27
Deeper Than Hate

Fan mood index · most recent r/CFB data

More

FollowThe team's own sites, its reporters and its podcasts.

Follow Georgia Southern

Each link was checked against two outside sites.

This page may include content derived from public news sources, social media, and fan communities. We relay these sources as-is — we are not reporting them. Sources may be summarized or quoted imperfectly; for anything that matters, go look at the original source directly. The original source may also be wrong. Text written by our model says so in a line beneath it, and it can get facts wrong. All analysis is editorial opinion, not professional reporting. Data sources · About this site