Marshall at Georgia Southern
Marshall (5‑3) at Georgia Southern (4‑4) — Georgia Southern is favored by 10.5. Marshall’s offense is at the 16th percentile on explosive plays; Georgia Southern’s defense is at the 69th.
How they got here
Last three games
Marshall · 5-3
Rated 23rd in our preseason ratings, 88th now.
2-1 in its last three, including a 7-point win over South Alabama as a 1.5-point underdog.
Last three games
Georgia Southern · 4-4
Rated 99th in our preseason ratings, 70th now, up 29 spots.
2-1 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.
W 31-0 vs Charleston Southern No. 219 of 668 teams
won by 31 as a 28.5-point favorite
Biggest mismatch: Georgia Southern’s passing EPA against Marshall, 54 points
Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.
Marshall’s explosive plays against Georgia Southern’s defense
Marshall offense, 16th percentile · Georgia Southern defense, 69th
Georgia Southern’s passing EPA against Marshall’s defense
Georgia Southern offense, 66th percentile · Marshall defense, 12th
Georgia Southern’s EPA/play against Marshall’s defense
Georgia Southern offense, 58th percentile · Marshall defense, 13th
What’s at stake
Make the playoff
Win the conference
Win the title
CFP odds as of November 4, 2026
The series
The series is tied 2-2
4 meetings since 2022 · Georgia Southern has won the last 2
- 2025Georgia Southern 24-19
- 2024Georgia Southern 24-23
- 2023Marshall 38-33
- 2022Marshall 23-10
Each line is Georgia Southern’s chance to win through that meeting. Georgia Southern is 1-1 in the meetings since 2018 that were still close in the fourth quarter.
Face-off
What each fanbase carries into this one.
Marshall
The chipMarshall doesn't need a national villain — the fanbase carries its own standard, set in 1970 and proven every time the program rebuilds from nothing and wins anyway.
Georgia Southern
The chip · vs big brotherStatesboro is two hours from Athens and a world away from the recruiting machine that never once scheduled them; Eagles fans wear the snub like a letterman jacket and would trade a season to take Georgia's measure for one Saturday.
What this game touches
The dynasty that gets an asterisk. Eagles fans grew up on Erk Russell and six rings; the FBS world hears 'six titles' and adds the silent qualifier — at a lower level. The 2017-2021 stretch of losing seasons after the move up nearly proved the doubters' point before Clay Helton steadied it.
Best players
Marshall
- Caleb Clark-Glover (DB) · 59 tackles
- Cannon Lewis (LB) · 55 tackles
- Jaydyn Johnson (LB) · 51 tackles
Georgia Southern
- Max Johnson (QB) · 1,928 passing yards
- Brandon Tyson (LB) · 41 tackles
- Aaron Sears (DB) · 39 tackles
What to watch
Player to watch: Max Johnson (QB) — Georgia Southern’s leading passer (1,928 passing yards) takes on Marshall’s pass defense (12th percentile allowed).
The spread has moved 2.0 points toward Georgia Southern since opening (−8.5 → −10.5).
The betting line, and the fans
Georgia Southern fans are feeling it more than most fanbases this week (85th percentile among FBS fanbases), in line with the numbers.
- Model · 54%
- Line · 80%
- Georgia Southern fans · 85th
- Marshall fans · 77th
Georgia Southern favored by 10.5 · Total 54.5
Georgia Southern by 10.5: where a favorite like this usually runs
Half of games8 in 10 games
Georgia Southern’s chance through the game, if this goes like the 450 games since 2025 with a favorite of 7.5 to 14.5 points.
Weather at kickoff
Typical at Allen E. Paulson Stadium: 7:30 pm Saturdays score 96, noon and 3:30 pm Saturdays 86
Marshall at Georgia Southern · Saturday, Nov. 7 · 3:30 pm ET · Allen E. Paulson Stadium.
Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.
If it kicked off at
Typical at Allen E. Paulson Stadium: noon Saturdays score 86, 3:30 pm 86, 7:30 pm 96.
- noon: 86, Mixed
- 3:30 pm: 86, Mixed
- 7:30 pm: 96, Comfortable
Typical weather score at each kickoff time.
Typical means the average of regular-season Saturdays at this stadium, 2018 to 2025. It is not a forecast for this game.
Home field
Georgia Southern is worth +6.7 points (±3.4) more at home than on the road since 2018 — top third of FBS, 90th percentile.
64% at home, 37% on the road against FBS opponents (28-16 home, 19-32 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +6.3 at home vs. away over 104 games — outside the ±5.2 noise, one of the few buildings where results say more.
The visitors travel about 417 miles to get here.
Season profile
Week by week
Georgia Southern
- Wk 4Lvs Houston28-42
- Wk 5Wat Coastal Carolina31-24
- Wk 6Lvs James Madison24-27
- Wk 7Wat Old Dominion23-15
- Wk 9Wvs App State19-3
Marshall
- Wk 4Wvs Gardner-Webb36-35
- Wk 5Lat James Madison17-45
- Wk 6Lvs Coastal Carolina21-27
- Wk 8Wvs South Alabama20-13
- Wk 9Wat Old Dominion36-23
Power rating by week
Georgia Southern is rated 1.9 points ahead as of week 10. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
The market
The spread moved 2 points toward Georgia Southern.
The total rose 1 point.
Spread: −8.5 → −10.5 · Total: 53.5 → 54.5
The books’ cut: 4.2%, the margin built into the odds
Conference standings
Going into this game: place in the conference, then conference record.
- Georgia Southern3rd3-1
- Marshall7th2-2