The rest of the season
Three real tests left: UConn 16%, Southern Miss 36%, Coastal Carolina 39%
Win out 2% · expect 0.9 of 3 more wins
Old Dominion's chance to win each game left, from our model: Coastal Carolina 39%, UConn 16%, Southern Miss 36%Bar height is our model’s chance in each game left. Dashed line: 50%.
Standing14th in the Sun Belt · 1-5 in conference play · All standings
LeadersPassing Quinn Henicle 648 · Rushing Devin Roche 401 · Receiving Josh Rodriguez 377 All player stats
Updated Wed Nov 4 · through week 9
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| Wk | Date | Our rank | Opp rank | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf | Top performers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 5 | #65 | #246 | −41.5✗ −20.5 | Norfolk State | W 31-10 115 | 1-0 | 0-0 | Pass Henicle 137 · Rush Henicle 68 · Rec Haughton Jr. 46 |
| 2 | Sep 12 | #66 | #49 | +17.5✗ −5.5 | @Virginia Tech | L 21-44 138 | 1-1 | 0-0 | Pass Henicle 187 · Rush Henicle 83 · Rec Rodriguez 89 |
| 3 | Sep 19 | #68 | #81 | −2.5✗ −5.5 | East Carolina | L 17-20 132 | 1-2 | 0-0 | Pass Henicle 94 · Rush Roche 102 · Rec Blackmon 42 |
| 4 | Sep 26 | #70 | #66 | +7✗ −19 | James Madison | L 20-46 147 Roaring | 1-3 | 0-1 | Pass Huff 261 · Rush Roche 18 · Rec Johnson 105 |
| 5 | Oct 3 | #90 | #117 | +1.5✗ −30.5 | @Georgia State | L 10-42 130 | 1-4 | 0-2 | Pass Henicle 49 · Rush Roche 37 · Rec Rodriguez 22 |
| 6 | Oct 10 | #113 | #99 | +8.5✓ +15.5 | @App State | W 10-3 136 | 2-4 | 1-2 | Pass Henicle 97 · Rush Roche 101 · Rec Harris 50 |
| 7 | Oct 15 | #112 | #80 | +3✗ −5 | Georgia Southern | L 15-23 132 | 2-5 | 1-3 | Pass Huff 115 · Rush James 29 · Rec Johnson 83 |
| 8 | Oct 24 | #122 | #69 | +13.5✗ −12.5 | @Louisiana Tech | L 0-26 136 | 2-6 | 1-4 | Pass Potter 154 · Rush Salter 9 · Rec Haughton Jr. 45 |
| 9 | Oct 31 | #148 | #98 | +3✗ −10 | Marshall | L 23-36 146 | 2-7 | 1-5 | Pass Potter 329 · Rush Hall 41 · Rec Rodriguez 143 |
| 10 | Nov 7 | #165 | #143 | +7 | @Coastal Carolina | 1 pm ET39% to win | |||
| 11 | Bye week | ||||||||
| 12 | Nov 21 | @UConn | 3:30 pm ET · CBS Sports Network16% to win | ||||||
| 13 | Nov 28 | Southern Miss | time TBA36% to win | ||||||
Win chances are our model for Old Dominion, through 9 games. This week's game comes from the playoff simulation, later games from the rating model. They are estimates and move every week.
The small line beside each score is the team's win chance through the game, drawn on one scale for every game. The small number is total plays.
Line is the closing point spread for Old Dominion: a minus number means favored. A green check means the team covered it, by the number beside it. A red cross means it fell short by that much.
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Big plays (IsoPPP) | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31 | Marshall | L 23-36 | 409 | 4 | 24:48 | -0.170 | 38.7% | 1.50 | |
| Oct 24 | @Louisiana Tech | L 0-26 | 141 | 1 | 20:41 | -0.340 | 25.0% | 1.22 | Season-low EPA/play |
| Oct 15 | Georgia Southern | L 15-23 | 264 | 2 | 23:34 | -0.213 | 33.3% | 1.03 | One-score loss |
| Oct 10 | @App State | W 10-3 | 304 | 3 | 38:50 | -0.167 | 33.3% | 0.79 | Best defensive stand |
| Oct 3 | @Georgia State | L 10-42 | 146 | 1 | 25:28 | -0.320 | 25.0% | 0.65 | Blowout loss |
| Sep 26 | James Madison | L 20-46 | 247 | 2 | 26:54 | -0.170 | 26.1% | 1.58 | |
| Sep 19 | East Carolina | L 17-20 | 274 | 2 | 29:23 | -0.247 | 25.0% | 1.58 | One-score loss |
| Sep 12 | @Virginia Tech | L 21-44 | 310 | 3 | 21:36 | +0.031 | 32.7% | 1.65 | Most explosive |
| Sep 5 | Norfolk State | W 31-10 | 319 | 2 | 27:41 | +0.218 | 42.1% | 1.40 | Season-high EPA/play |
| Season average (9 games) | 268 | 2.2 | -0.153 | 31.2% | 1.27 | ||||
Old Dominion's wildest games since 2013: comebacks, long shots, line misses
Median odds across sportsbooks · Nov 4. A number with a minus is the favorite: −130 means $130 wins $100. A plus is the underdog: +170 means $100 wins $170.
What fans said
Real posts about each game (they name the opponent, a player or a play), chosen by community score · usernames not shown
The games that decide the season
Recent form · last 10 games
3-7 over the last 10, and lost the last three.
Range of outcomes · Old Dominion · 2026
Regular-season wins: chance of each total, from the game chances above
2 wins 33%; 3 wins 46%; 4 wins 19%; 5 wins 2%Bars are the chance of each regular-season win total, from our model's chance in each game left, through 9 games. Paler bars are the outer 10% at each end. The closed row comes from the season-path projection, which also plays out conference title games and the CFP.
More in this tab
This week and this season
What it is like to watch them2026 · 2-7
Measured from 9 games · ranks are among Sun Belt teams the same season
Old Dominion brought football back from the dead in 2009 — and in 2025 walked into Blacksburg and hung 45 on Virginia Tech, won ten games, and authored the best season in the program's short, improbable life.
Old Dominion has beaten Virginia Tech three times now, and the 2025 rout in Blacksburg was the first on the Hokies' own field — a program that didn't exist a generation ago putting a Power Four…
Old Dominion · Game-day weather
Typical at S.B. Ballard Stadium: 7:30 pm Saturdays score 95, noon and 3:30 pm Saturdays 90
Typical weather score at each kickoff time.
Tap a dot to read it.
At kickoff, 114 regular-season Saturdays at each kickoff time, 2018 to 2025. Typical means the average of those Saturdays. It is not a forecast.
Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.
Old Dominion is the Sun Belt program whose 2009 football resurrection + 2014 FBS reclassification + S.B. Ballard Stadium 2019 reset define what historic-Tidewater-football-rebuilds look like.
Roster and recruiting
Top 2 commits
Top community posts · last 12 months · r/cfb
Fans and ratings
Fan mood index · most recent r/CFB data
More
Each link was checked against two outside sites.
Range of outcomes · Old Dominion · 2026