underdogthis cycle✓ factnew
Tre' Brown III produces at a notably LOWER rate when his team is an underdog than when favored -- he fades when the pressure is on, and his per-target value drops too.
our readdeveloping
Old Dominion
1-1Sun Belt · Ricky Rahne, year 7 (31-34) · S.B. Ballard Stadium · 20,118 · 21,944 avg in 2026
The nationunrankedAP / Coaches
The model#66 CFB ZeitgeistSP+ #88 (-6.2) · FPI #96
The marketOld Dominion by 3vs East Carolina · our model 66% Old Dominion · a number, not a pick
LastL 21–44 at Virginia Tech · Sat Sep 12 · Quinn Henicle 187 pass yds, 1 TD, 83 rush yds
Nextvs East Carolina · Sat Sep 19 · 6 pm ET · S.B. Ballard Stadium · Old Dominion by 3 · series 0-5, lost the last 5 · Game preview
Updated Tue Sep 15 · through week 2
Old Dominion · 2026 schedule & results1-1
| Wk | Date | Us | Opp | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 5 | #65 | #246 | -41✗ | Norfolk State | W 31–10 115 | 1-0 | 0-0 |
| 2 | Sep 12 | #64 | #50 | +17.5✗ | @Virginia Tech | L 21–44 138 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| 3 | Sep 19 | #65 | #82 | -3 | East Carolina | |||
| 4 | Sep 26 | #66 | #82 | James Madison | ||||
| 5 | Oct 3 | @Georgia State | ||||||
| 6 | Oct 10 | @App State | ||||||
| 7 | Oct 15 | Georgia Southern | ||||||
| 8 | Oct 24 | @Louisiana Tech | ||||||
| 9 | Oct 31 | Marshall | ||||||
| 10 | Nov 7 | @Coastal Carolina | ||||||
| 12 | Nov 21 | @UConn | ||||||
| 13 | Nov 28 | Southern Miss |
Advanced box score (EPA, success rate, explosiveness)▼
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Explosive% | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 12 | @Virginia Tech | L 21–44 | 310 | 3 | 21:36 | +0.120 | 32.7% | 165.3% | |
| Sep 5 | Norfolk State | W 31–10 | 319 | 2 | 27:41 | +0.218 | 42.1% | 140.3% | |
| Season average (2 games) | 314 | 2.5 | +0.169 | 37.4% | 152.8% | ||||
Verdict Begins·Live
Old Dominion brought football back from the dead in 2009 — and in 2025 walked into Blacksburg and hung 45 on Virginia Tech, won ten games, and authored the best season in the program's short, improbable life.
Title DroughtSince 2009 · 17 yrs
Old Dominion has beaten Virginia Tech three times now, and the 2025 rout in Blacksburg was the first on the Hokies' own field — a program that didn't exist a generation ago putting a Power Four neighb…
low signal
The season in chapters
Ahead
What fans said
Old Dominion fans
Old Dominion fans
Real posts from the day of the game, chosen by community score · usernames not shown
What it is like to watch them2025 · 10-3 · last season
Game feel51rock fightscombined pts / game12th highest-scoring of 14 in the Sun Belt
Heart rate1-0rarely closein one-score games (1 of 13)14th most one-score games of 14 in the Sun Belt
Margin+13.5comfortableavg scoring margin2nd best margin of 14 in the Sun Belt
Tempo67average paceoffensive plays / game10th fastest of 14 in the Sun Belt
Big plays1.32highlight reelexplosiveness (IsoPPP)4th most explosive of 14 in the Sun Belt
Home crowd18,582avg attendance9th biggest crowds of 14 in the Sun Belt
✓ measured from 13 games · ranks are among Sun Belt teams the same season
Recent form · last 10 games · incl. 2025
Old Dominion has won four of its last five.
Warming. 7-3 over the last 10, and lost the last one.
Streak L1Last 5 · 4-1Last 10 · 7-3
If you was able to feel the energy after the game, it wasn’t a satisfying energy
The forecast
Next Sep 19
vs East Carolina · at home
EliteRun-heavy, ground-controlElite
~ our read on style
Market outlook
Season expectations
CFP championship#73 in field+100000
Sun Belt title#2 in market+470
Sportsbook consensus · best odds across multiple books · 2026-09-14
Old Dominion · the story right now
8 storylines developing
What Old Dominion's offseason is really about
the open questionwhere does it go from here?
garbage time2025 cycle~attributednew
Devin Roche does NOT see a usage spike in garbage time -- his workload holds steady regardless of score.
our readbackground
closer2025 cycle~attributednew
Ke'Travion Hargrove: a closer signal screened this season.
our readbackground
garbage time2025 cycle~attributednew
Ke'Travion Hargrove sees a real spike in usage once the game is out of reach.
our readbackground
closer2025 cycle~attributednew
Trequan Jones gets LESS work in the fourth quarter with a lead than his overall workload would predict -- not the trusted closer raw carries might suggest.
our readbackground
garbage time2025 cycle~attributednew
Trequan Jones: a garbage time merchant signal screened this season.
our readbackground
program_outlook2025 cycle~readnew
Old Dominion leaped 46 spots in SP+ — Ricky Rahne's fifth season opens with a 10-3 record and a historic rebuild identity on the line.
what happenedOld Dominion enters 2025 rated No. 49 in SP+ (+5.9), up 46 spots from 2024. ✓ fact
our readbackground
program_outlookthis cycle~readnew
Old Dominion leaped 46 spots in SP+ — the 10-3 record and 2019 stadium reset suggest a return to the 2009-14 rebuild era, but Ricky Rahne’s fifth season must prove.
what happenedOld Dominion enters 2026 rated No. 49 in 2025 SP+ (+5.9), up 46 spots from 2024. ✓ fact
our readbackground
Outcome band · Old Dominion · 2026
Outcome band · Old Dominion · 2026Old Dominion's most likely season is 7-6 — a bowl game. The floor is 4-8; the ceiling is 9-4.
Floor 4-8Ceiling 9-4Base 7-6
0 wins13 wins
Floor4-8No postseason.
Base7-6A bowl game.
Ceiling9-4A bowl game, 2 more wins.
Floor, base and ceiling come from the season-path projection, which plays out conference title games and the CFP — so a ceiling can run past 12 games.
How the room reacted
Following now · Old Dominion · Developing Confidence
Old Dominion: coordinator change reshaping a unit.
Old Dominion: coordinator change reshaping a unit.
near-unanimous belief
where the takes land · dot = how loud
DOUBTBELIEF
Believers8 bull takes
🎪 drama: simmering💬 fans: 2% volume
CFB Zeitgeist Read · our take
Ricky Rahne enters his sixth season with a 10-3 record, but coordinator changes and an uneasy fanbase signal tension beneath Old Dominion's current success.
Source of record: Old Dominion: coordinator change reshaping a unit.
How each room is reacting — tap to expand
🎪The circus“The Good, the Bad and the Ugly From Virginia Tech's 44-21 Win Ov” — the saga that won't quit.›
The off-field storyline driving the noise right now. Not analysis — the soap opera, and that's the point.
“The Good, the Bad and the Ugly From Virginia Tech's 44-21 Win Over Old Dominion”
Sports Illustrated · 2026-09-13 · read ↗
📣Believers8 bullish items -- the case it's working.›
The optimistic read: momentum, and the 'this is real' takes.
“Virginia Tech football rolls to win over Old Dominion”
Lynchburg News and Advance · 2026-09-12 · read ↗
“Virginia Tech football rolls to win over Old Dominion - Richmond Times-Dispatch”
news · 2026-09-13 · read ↗
“4 winners and 2 losers from Virginia Tech's domination of Old Dominion”
Fighting Gobbler · 2026-09-13 · read ↗
🧐SkepticsNo prominent dissent — the coverage runs one way.›
The analytical counter: rankings, results, and 'the hype is ahead of the tape' takes.
Nothing in our corpus yet — this door stays open for when there is.
💬The boards9 board mentions — too thin to call a stance.›
Only 9 of 367 board posts mention it — below our floor to call a community stance. Shown as texture, not a verdict.
"I originally posted this as a comment on a thread about the 16 to 8 week transition but I think it's worth its own post. I've tried to do as much research about this as I can while"
r/ODU ~ fan take
"Hello, my name is Madison Reynolds, and I’m a senior student dental hygienist at old dominion university! If anyone has availability on for the times and is interested in receiving"
r/ODU ~ fan take
The boards ≠ the fanbase: a vocal, self-selected slice.
Following now · Old Dominion · Season outlook Confidence
One of the biggest jumps in the country. Old Dominion has to prove the model right.
Old Dominion enters 2025 rated No. 49 in SP+ (+5.9), up 46 spots from 2024. One of the bigger model jumps in the country — the tape moved faster than the consensus noticed. The preview consensus leans in — but preseason ratings reward the recent past, not the season ahead.
near-unanimous belief
where the takes land · dot = how loud
DOUBTBELIEF
Believers8 bull takes
🎪 drama: simmering💬 fans: 28% volume
CFB Zeitgeist Read · our take
Old Dominion leaped 46 spots in SP+ — Ricky Rahne's fifth season opens with a 10-3 record and a historic rebuild identity on the line.
Next · what to watch
The non-obvious consequence of a major jump in the model is the expectations tax: a season that would have read as a breakthrough last year now reads as meeting the floor. Watch whether the model holds through the first month of the schedule.
Source of record: Old Dominion enters 2025 rated No. 49 in SP+ (+5.9), up 46 spots from 2024.
How each room is reacting — tap to expand
🎪The circus“The Good, the Bad and the Ugly From Virginia Tech's 44-21 Win Ov” — the saga that won't quit.›
The off-field storyline driving the noise right now. Not analysis — the soap opera, and that's the point.
“The Good, the Bad and the Ugly From Virginia Tech's 44-21 Win Over Old Dominion”
Sports Illustrated · 2026-09-13 · read ↗
📣Believers8 bullish items -- the case it's working.›
The 'the projection is underselling us' read -- fans betting the season beats the preview number.
“Virginia Tech football rolls to win over Old Dominion”
Lynchburg News and Advance · 2026-09-12 · read ↗
“Virginia Tech football rolls to win over Old Dominion - Richmond Times-Dispatch”
news · 2026-09-13 · read ↗
“4 winners and 2 losers from Virginia Tech's domination of Old Dominion”
Fighting Gobbler · 2026-09-13 · read ↗
🧐SkepticsNo prominent dissent — the coverage runs one way.›
The 'the model has seen the tape' counter -- efficiency ratings reward what a program has actually done, not hope.
Nothing in our corpus yet — this door stays open for when there is.
💬The boards28% of recent board volume — the fanbase is locked in.›
This event was in 103 of 367 board posts (28%) over the last 60 days — a fanbase consumed by it. Fan text shown verbatim, attributed to the community not the individual poster.
"I’m currently taking Arts in early childhood and elementary education. My professor is using AI for everything. Every module they “make” is using AI. I got a 77 on our most recent"
r/ODU ~ fan take
"So far, I only went to one dining hall, and that is Webb Center. But, I was wondering about yalls takes on the other dining halls like Broderick? Or if there's other places to ment"
r/ODU ~ fan take
The boards ≠ the fanbase: a vocal, self-selected slice.
Rival pulse
Liberty
Mixed+5
Commonwealth Clash
James Madison
Mixed+4
Royal Rivalry
Fan mood index · most recent r/cfb data
More in this tab
Game day
The experience
Old Dominion is the Sun Belt program whose 2009 football resurrection + 2014 FBS reclassification + S.B. Ballard Stadium 2019 reset define what historic-Tidewater-football-rebuilds look like.
Offense: EliteRun/Pass: Run-heavy, ground-controlDefense: Elite
Open questions
The story
Roster
Roster Reload - Old Dominion
2026 snapshot - 2026-09-15Returning Production9%Low continuity / heavy reload
Talent Composite#122 nationally247 composite 544.2
Portal Additions15Primary repair: IOL
Portal Losses22Primary pressure: WR
Draft Loss0No NFL Draft departures recorded
Recruiting Reload#96Depth class
OTin 2 - Raykwon Goldthwaiteout 2 - Joshua SchuetzmannEven
Full roster (155 players)
ATHZion Agnew
CBBotros Alisandro, Brandon Crutchfield, Chris Boykins, Eddie Guerra, Greg Johnson II, Je'Hahj Sherrill, Jivan Baly, Jonathan Edison, Jorian Haynes, Justin Watts, Kingston Gregory, Langston Williams, Shaq Leaks, Zach Hobson, Zion Frink
DLAhmaad Foster, BJ Campbell, Bucci Farmer, Chris Forbes, Chris Hilliard, Christopher Spencer, Cole Daniels, DJ Thompson, Deandre Lynch, Fred Giles, Gavin Harrison, Hunter Malecki, Idrissa Kamara, Javen Gibson, Jonathan Bacigalupi, Ledarrion Menter, Lorenzo McFadden-Pressley, Lucas Banks, Malachi Harris, Ricardo Williams Jr.
LBAJ Ashworth, De'Veion McLilley-Bulo, Dirrick Goodman, Gage Sawyers, JaMez Drummer, Jackson Forrest, Jason Henderson, Jayden Sheppard, Jed Olotu-Judah, Jeremiah Deese, Jeremy Mack Jr., Justin Kalitsnik, Keshawn Thomas, Koa Naotala, LaDarius Adams II, Landon Kehoe, Mario Thompson, Montrell Chapman, Seth Naotala, Talan Babin
OLAnderson Bloomquist, Andy Silverthorn, Billy Gough, Braden Ellis, Brayden Walker, Bubba Craig, Cameron Hill, Carson Bradley, Connor Drake, Demorrsion Brown, Dory Lewis-Wilson, Elijah Hoskin, Griffin Duggan, Jack Scala, Jack Sheehan, Joey McGowan, Josh Schuetzmann, Kainan Miller, Keegan Parker, Kendrick Hall, Khi'Len Gates, Logan Cox, Mason Thrush, Omar Bender, Raykwon Goldthwaite, Ryan Joyce, Stephon Dubose-Bourne, Theo Bachelder, Wesley Lattus, Zach Barlev
QBBrooklyn Nace, Gabe Dombek, Holden Brown, Jaxon Potter, Landen Abernathy, Quinn Henicle, Ryan Huff
RBCJ Jackson III, Devin Roche, Ja'Varien Salter, Jonathan Newton, Ke'Travion Hargrove, Maurki James, Trey Hall, Troy Marquez
SAsher Horn, CJ Floyd, Caleb Bishop, Daevon Iles, Daniel Pickens, Jordan Saunders, Kollin Collier, Lucas Struck, Marco Tyson, Mario Easterly, Martrez Chavious-Fenner, Nickendre Stiger, Owen Barry-Wilson, Ryan Ramey, Tavares Murray Jr., Trey Caver, Will Phillips
Offseason moves
The Offseason Ledger · Old Dominion
2 verified updates · portal · recruiting · staff · news- Coaching
ODU hires Kody Cook as OC
Cook takes the OC seat at ODU with a WR room that's thin on proven producers and a class sitting 96th nationally — Rahne's betting a schematic overhaul closes the gap faster than recruiting alone can.
- News
Cal adds ODU to 2027 schedule
Cross-country payday for a #102 class that needs every resource it can find — Rahne's WR room is thin, and this check helps fund the fixes.
Who's moved
Transfer portal snapshot
-8.2 net portal points
(raw ledger: -20.5 — unweighted, no position adjustment)WR-11.6
starter risk
S-9.0
starter risk
LB-7.2
starter risk
IOL+6.3
need filled
CB-4.3
starter risk
RB+3.4
OT+2.3
TE-1.4
K+1.0
low confidence
DL+0.2
QB-0.2
Top commits
Top 3 commits
2026 class
★★★☆☆
Zialis Blackmon
#884 national
★★★☆☆
BJ Bedgood
#1438 national
Profiles like a typical incoming wide receiver — 16 of his 25 closest recruiting profiles since 2018 shared the Possession Receiver archetype.~our read · projection from recruiting profile — no college snaps yet
★★★☆☆
Brayden Myovela
#1566 national
Profiles like a typical incoming wide receiver — 15 of his 25 closest recruiting profiles since 2018 shared the Possession Receiver archetype.~our read · projection from recruiting profile — no college snaps yet
Where they're from
Recruiting Footprint · 2026
Recruiting Footprint · 2026
30
MS · 6VA · 5NC · 3TX · 3AL · 2FL · 2KS · 2PA · 2+5 more
MS leads the 2026 class with 6 commits. National footprint reaching 13 states.
Where they recruit · 2023-2026
108 signees across 26 states, 2023-2026. NC leads the pull.
Miles from home
Miles from home · 2026 roster
The median Old Dominion player grew up 282 miles from campus.
Half this roster came from closer than that; half came from farther.
54th-closest to home in FBS
of 135 ranked →
Closest to homeFarthest from home
Middle 50%143–770 miquartile spread
Within 100 mi17%24 of 143 players
Farthest2,343 miJaxon Potter · Huntington Beach, CA
Closest3 miCJ Jackson III · Norfolk, VA
Straight-line distance from each player's listed hometown to S.B. Ballard Stadium. Hometowns are placed at city-centroid precision, not street address — fine at this scale, but a player's true door-to-door number can differ by a few miles. 143 of 155 listed players have a geocoded hometown. Source: CFBD roster hometowns.
Recruiting buzz
r/cfb this year
[Postgame Thread] Old Dominion Defeats USF 24-10
[Postgame Thread] Old Dominion Defeats Appalachian State 24-21
[Game Thread] USF vs. Old Dominion (5:00 PM ET)
Top community posts · last 12 months · r/cfb
How it turned out
Fans vs. market
Fan vs. market↓
15th
Fan percentile
(FBS mood rank)
(FBS mood rank)
7.5
Vegas O/U wins
(62nd among FBS)
(62nd among FBS)
Market 47pp more optimistic than fan mood
Win total consensus · 2 books
Turnover luck
Fumble luck
The bounces haven't gone their way on their own fumbles: 20% recovered, vs. ~54% expected.
1 of 5 own fumbles recovered themselves, 2026 only.
Penalties
Penalty battle
The flags haven't favored them: 12 penalties committed vs. 13 drawn on opponents, 34 yards behind.
110 penalty yards committed vs. 76 drawn on opponents, 2026 season total.
This page may include content derived from public news sources, social media, and fan communities. We relay these sources as-is — we are not reporting them. Sources may be summarized or quoted imperfectly; for anything that matters, go look at the original source directly. The original source may also be wrong. AI-generated content is labeled and may contain factual errors. All analysis is editorial opinion, not professional reporting. Data sources · About this site