Virginia Tech beats Old Dominion 44-21

Old Dominion1-121
Virginia Tech2-044Final
Sat, Sep 12 · Lane Stadium, Blacksburg, Va. · Crowd 65,632The CW

Virginia Tech beat Old Dominion 44-21.

We had Virginia Tech favored. It won.

Top comment in the game thread

This user would like to acknowledge that all past statements regarding Brent Pry and/or his history and capabilities as a football coach specifically were made in regards to *Head…

Q2 8:15 · r/CFB game thread · Sat, Sep 12

How it swung

Before kickoff, our ratings gave Virginia Tech a 71% chance, and the closing betting line (Virginia Tech was a 17.5-point favorite) put it at 92%.

Favored the whole way: Virginia Tech never fell below 91%.

Old Dominion never had better than a 9% chance.

FinalVirginia Tech 44-21 Old DominionVirginia Tech wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.
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50%10%25%Q1Q2Q3Q4Lowest 0%Lost21-44ScoresChatter5 comments a minute2 comments a minute2 comments a minute6 comments a minute5 comments a minute6 comments a minute7 comments a minute4 comments a minute6 comments a minute9 comments a minute5 comments a minute6 comments a minute30 comments a minute15 comments a minute8 comments a minute4 comments a minute5 comments a minute7 comments a minute9 comments a minute9 comments a minute8 comments a minute14 comments a minute16 comments a minute8 comments a minute11 comments a minute14 comments a minute12 comments a minute9 comments a minute5 comments a minute7 comments a minute3 comments a minute3 comments a minute2 comments a minute2 comments a minute8 comments a minute10 comments a minute9 comments a minute5 comments a minute1 comments a minute3 comments a minute7 comments a minute4 comments a minute6 comments a minute4 comments a minute6 comments a minute4 comments a minute7 comments a minute4 comments a minute8 comments a minute6 comments a minute9 comments a minute9 comments a minute4 comments a minute5 comments a minute6 comments a minute4 comments a minute8 comments a minute4 comments a minute4 comments a minute
50%10%25%Q1Q2Q3Q4Lowest 0%Lost21-44ScoresChatter5 comments a minute2 comments a minute2 comments a minute6 comments a minute5 comments a minute6 comments a minute7 comments a minute4 comments a minute6 comments a minute9 comments a minute5 comments a minute6 comments a minute30 comments a minute15 comments a minute8 comments a minute4 comments a minute5 comments a minute7 comments a minute9 comments a minute9 comments a minute8 comments a minute14 comments a minute16 comments a minute8 comments a minute11 comments a minute14 comments a minute12 comments a minute9 comments a minute5 comments a minute7 comments a minute3 comments a minute3 comments a minute2 comments a minute2 comments a minute8 comments a minute10 comments a minute9 comments a minute5 comments a minute1 comments a minute3 comments a minute7 comments a minute4 comments a minute6 comments a minute4 comments a minute6 comments a minute4 comments a minute7 comments a minute4 comments a minute8 comments a minute6 comments a minute9 comments a minute9 comments a minute4 comments a minute5 comments a minute6 comments a minute4 comments a minute8 comments a minute4 comments a minute4 comments a minute

No single play moved the chance by 20 points.

No single play moved the chance by 20 points.

What fans said, play by play

The line in bold above each quote is written by our model from the thread’s comments and the play-by-play.

  1. Q2 8:15Virginia Tech fans celebrate Pry's defense forcing an ODU fumble and Overton's runQuoted at the top of the page.
  2. Q2 4:35"I don't think the ground can cause a fumble" -a professional football announcer in the year 2026r/CFB game threadThis announcer is an idiot, ground can’t cause a fumbler/CFB game thread
  3. Q4 2:27Virginia Tech fans criticize officials and broadcast for missing a fumble call"this one ain't over, folks!" Wtf is this broadcast crew doingr/CFB game threadTerrible spot, and I’m glad the CW decided to not show the replayr/CFB game thread
Virginia Tech’s chance to win after every play.
How to read this chartStarts from the pregame line (Virginia Tech -17.5), at 91% for Virginia Tech (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. The gray band is r/CFB game-thread activity, its loudest stretches in gold. A gold diamond marks a play fans were reacting to.

Watch the plays

The bar and the arrow show Virginia Tech’s chance to win after each play; the logo is the team the play helped.

  1. Q1, 10:57Grunkemeyer sacked for a 12-yd lossQ1, 10:57 · Virginia Tech 0, Old Dominion 00-0score after the play0-0score after the playWatch from this playACC Digital Network
  2. Q1, 3:01Hawkins 20-yd TD runVirginia Tech leads 10-0Q1, 3:01 · Virginia Tech 10, Old Dominion 0▲3%Virginia Tech’s chance to win, 93% to 96%▲3%Virginia Tech’s chance to win, 93% to 96%Watch from this playACC Digital Network
  3. Q2, 8:23Grunkemeyer 10-yd TD pass to ReynoldsVirginia Tech leads 24-3Q2, 8:23 · Virginia Tech 24, Old Dominion 3▲2%Virginia Tech’s chance to win, 98% to 100%▲2%Virginia Tech’s chance to win, 98% to 100%Watch from this playACC Digital Network
  4. Q2, 8:15Dominion run for a 5-yd lossfumblesQ2, 8:15 · Virginia Tech 24, Old Dominion 324-3score after the play24-3score after the playWatch from this playACC Digital Network
  5. Q2, 6:51Grunkemeyer 16-yd TD pass to ReynoldsVirginia Tech leads 31-3Q2, 6:51 · Virginia Tech 31, Old Dominion 331-3score after the play31-3score after the playWatch from this playACC Digital Network
  6. Q2, 6:15Henicle sacked for a 10-yd lossQ2, 6:15 · Virginia Tech 31, Old Dominion 331-3score after the play31-3score after the playWatch from this playACC Digital Network
  7. Q3, 12:48Henicle sacked for a 13-yd lossQ3, 12:48 · Virginia Tech 34, Old Dominion 634-6score after the play34-6score after the playWatch from this playACC Digital Network
  8. Q3, 1:14Henicle 7-yd TD pass to Haughtoncuts it to 37-13Q3, 1:14 · Virginia Tech 37, Old Dominion 1337-13score after the play37-13score after the playWatch from this playACC Digital Network

Every drive

Virginia Tech scored on 7 of its 11 drives; Old Dominion on 4 of its 13.

Virginia Tech’s drives are teal, Old Dominion’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

own goalgoal lineQ1Virginia Tech: Field goal, from 75 yards out to 21Field goalOld Dominion: Punt, from 75 yards out to 67PuntVirginia Tech: Touchdown, from 77 yards out to 0TouchdownOld Dominion: Fumble, from 54 yards out to 34FumbleOld Dominion: Fumble returned for a touchdown, from 80 yards out to 86Fumble TDOld Dominion: Field goal, from 75 yards out to 16Field goalVirginia Tech: Touchdown, from 75 yards out to 0TouchdownQ2Old Dominion: Fumble, from 75 yards out to 80FumbleVirginia Tech: Touchdown, from 20 yards out to 0TouchdownOld Dominion: Punt, from 75 yards out to 74PuntVirginia Tech: Field goal, from 1 yards out to 4Field goalOld Dominion: Punt, from 75 yards out to 64PuntVirginia Tech: End of half, from 83 yards out to 67End of halfOld Dominion: Field goal, from 33 yards out to 33Field goalQ3Old Dominion: Punt, from 75 yards out to 45PuntVirginia Tech: Field goal, from 80 yards out to 7Field goalOld Dominion: Touchdown, from 75 yards out to 0TouchdownVirginia Tech: Touchdown, from 84 yards out to 0TouchdownQ4Old Dominion: Punt, from 75 yards out to 82PuntVirginia Tech: Punt, from 55 yards out to 53PuntOld Dominion: Touchdown, from 85 yards out to 0TouchdownVirginia Tech: Punt, from 75 yards out to 62PuntOld Dominion: Punt, from 96 yards out to 78PuntVirginia Tech: Uncategorized, from 73 yards out to 68Uncategorized
“That’s gotta be a benching for at least the rest of the game”
A Virginia Tech fan

When fans got loud

Busy

The jump was busy; the crowd was steady.

FirstSecondThirdFourthVirginia Tech fansOld Dominion fansusual

What it cost

Old Dominion’s chance to make the playoff fell from 1% to 0%.

Make the playoff

Old Dominion · lost1% → ▼0%
Virginia Tech · won1% → 1%

Before the game (September 11, 2026) → after this result, in our model.

Box score

Virginia Tech 44, Old Dominion 21

Virginia Tech covered −17.5 by 5.5. The total, 65, went over 47.5.

Old DominionVirginia TechTotal yardsOld Dominion 310Virginia Tech 416310416Passing yardsOld Dominion 187Virginia Tech 327187327Rushing yardsOld Dominion 123Virginia Tech 8912389First downsOld Dominion 11Virginia Tech 261126TurnoversOld Dominion 3Virginia Tech 232Time of possessionOld Dominion 21:36Virginia Tech 38:2421:3638:24
Team totalsOld DominionVirginia Tech
Total yards310416
Passing13 of 21, 187 yds32 of 44, 327 yds
Rushing31 for 123 yds42 for 89 yds
First downs1126
Third down4 of 1310 of 21
Fourth down2 of 23 of 3
Turnovers32
Penalties6 for 45 yds6 for 32 yds
Time of possession21:3638:24

Old Dominion leaders

  • Passing Quinn Henicle 13 of 21, 187 yds, 1 TD
  • Rushing Quinn Henicle 16 for 83 yds, 1 TD; Devin Roche 9 for 45 yds
  • Receiving Josh Rodriguez 3 for 89 yds; JJ Harrell 3 for 36 yds

Virginia Tech leaders

  • Passing Ethan Grunkemeyer 31 of 42, 327 yds, 2 TD
  • Rushing Jeffrey Overton Jr. 14 for 47 yds; Marcellous Hawkins 11 for 43 yds, 1 TD
  • Receiving Luke Reynolds 8 for 108 yds, 2 TD; Ayden Greene 1 for 44 yds

No rain through the game

74° at kickoff · no rain recorded

Warmer than 9 in 10 of the 63 other games played at Lane Stadium since 2016 (airport temperature during the game window). The usual here around this date is 70°, with about 7 in 10 games between 63° and 78°.

September game-day temperatures at Lane Stadium

Win chance with rain, wind and thunder from the nearest airport, by game timeQ1Q2Q3Q4Virginia Tech favoredOld Dominion favored100%Win chanceVirginia TechRaininches per 10 min0.1 inNo rain recordedWindmph, average and gusts20 mph40 mphHourly wind only at this airport
Win chance with rain, wind and thunder from the nearest airport, by game timeQ1Q2Q3Q4Virginia Tech favoredOld Dominion favoredRain · inches per 10 min0.1 inNo rain recordedWind · miles per hour2040Hourly wind only at this airport

Drag along the chart, or step through the game.

First quarter, 14:55 left12:11 p.m.
Old Dominion 0, Virginia Tech 0 · Virginia Tech 91% to win
no rain · 74°
Hawkins 4-yd run
Where this weather comes fromMeasured at Virginia Tech Airport, 1.0 miles away. Rain is NOAA's radar-and-gauge estimate at the stadium and wind is an airport reading; neither is measured on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet; rain radar from NOAA MRMS, through Iowa State University. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last three games · 2025 season

Old Dominion · 10-3

Rated 65th in our preseason ratings, 66th now.

Three straight wins, capped by a 14-point win over South Florida as a 4-point underdog.

W 24-10 @ South FloridaTop 25 #27 of 667

won by 14 as a 4-point underdog

Old Dominion won 24-10 vs South Florida. Chance to win started at 31%, low 22%, high 97%.

W 27-10 vs Georgia State #188 of 667

won by 17 as a 28.5-point favorite

Old Dominion won 27-10 vs Georgia State. Chance to win started at 98%, low 81%, high better than 99%.

W 45-10 @ Georgia Southern #157 of 667

won by 35 as a 10.5-point favorite

Old Dominion won 45-10 at Georgia Southern. Chance to win started at 70%, low 70%, high better than 99%.

W 33-0 vs Troy #139 of 667

won by 33 as a 9.5-point favorite

Old Dominion won 33-0 vs Troy. Chance to win started at 81%, low 77%, high better than 99%.

W 31-6 @ UL Monroe #193 of 667

won by 25 as a 16.5-point favorite

Old Dominion won 31-6 at UL Monroe. Chance to win started at 88%, low 82%, high better than 99%.

W 24-21 vs App State #118 of 667

won by 3 as a 12.5-point favorite

Old Dominion won 24-21 vs App State. Chance to win started at 85%, low 79%, high better than 99%.

L 27-63 @ James MadisonTop 25 #55 of 667

lost by 36 as a 3.5-point underdog

Old Dominion lost 27-63 at James Madison. Chance to win started at 74%, low under 1%, high 75%.

L 24-48 @ Marshall #80 of 667

lost by 24 as a 14.5-point favorite

Old Dominion lost 24-48 at Marshall. Chance to win started at 78%, low under 1%, high 88%.

W 47-7 vs Coastal Carolina #138 of 667

won by 40 as an 18.5-point favorite

Old Dominion won 47-7 vs Coastal Carolina. Chance to win started at 93%, low 92%, high better than 99%.

W 21-7 vs Liberty #110 of 667

won by 14 as a 14.5-point favorite

Old Dominion won 21-7 vs Liberty. Chance to win started at 86%, low 78%, high better than 99%.

W 45-26 @ Virginia Tech #75 of 667

won by 19 as a 5.5-point underdog

Old Dominion won 45-26 at Virginia Tech. Chance to win started at 29%, low 22%, high better than 99%.

W 54-6 vs North Carolina Central #181 of 667

won by 48 as a 21.5-point favorite

Old Dominion won 54-6 vs North Carolina Central. Chance to win started at 95%, low 90%, high better than 99%.

L 14-27 @ IndianaTop 25 #36 of 667

lost by 13 as a 23.5-point underdog

Old Dominion lost 14-27 at Indiana. Chance to win started at 12%, low under 1%, high 16%.

Last three games · 2025 season

Virginia Tech · 3-9

Rated 51st in our preseason ratings, 49th now.

Three straight losses.

L 7-27 @ VirginiaTop 25 #35 of 667

lost by 20 as a 9.5-point underdog

Virginia Tech lost 7-27 at Virginia. Chance to win started at 19%, low under 1%, high 24%.

L 17-34 vs MiamiTop 25 #8 of 667

lost by 17 as a 17.5-point underdog

L 14-34 @ Florida StateTop 25 #33 of 667

lost by 20 as a 13.5-point underdog

Virginia Tech lost 14-34 at Florida State. Chance to win started at 11%, low under 1%, high 30%.

L 16-28 vs LouisvilleTop 25 #27 of 667

lost by 12 as a 10.5-point underdog

Virginia Tech lost 16-28 vs Louisville. Chance to win started at 32%, low 1%, high 70%.

W 42-34 vs California #80 of 667

won by 8 as a 6.5-point favorite

Virginia Tech won 42-34 vs California. Chance to win started at 79%, low 27%, high better than 99%.

L 20-35 @ Georgia TechTop 25 #37 of 667

lost by 15 as a 14.5-point underdog

Virginia Tech lost 20-35 at Georgia Tech. Chance to win started at 12%, low under 1%, high 12%.

L 23-30 vs Wake Forest #69 of 667

lost by 7 as a 4.5-point favorite

Virginia Tech lost 23-30 vs Wake Forest. Chance to win started at 69%, low 3%, high 78%.

W 23-21 @ NC State #53 of 667

won by 2 as a 10.5-point underdog

Virginia Tech won 23-21 at NC State. Chance to win started at 17%, low 11%, high 88%.

W 38-6 vs Wofford #193 of 667

won by 32 as a 34.5-point favorite

Virginia Tech won 38-6 vs Wofford. Chance to win started at 99%, low 98%, high better than 99%.

L 26-45 vs Old Dominion #80 of 667

lost by 19 as a 5.5-point favorite

Virginia Tech lost 26-45 vs Old Dominion. Chance to win started at 71%, low under 1%, high 78%.

L 20-44 vs VanderbiltTop 25 #42 of 667

lost by 24 as a 2.5-point favorite

Virginia Tech lost 20-44 vs Vanderbilt. Chance to win started at 65%, low under 1%, high 86%.

L 11-24 @ South CarolinaTop 25 #13 of 667

lost by 13 as a 7.5-point underdog

Virginia Tech lost 11-24 vs South Carolina. Chance to win started at 21%, low under 1%, high 36%.

Week by week

Virginia Tech

  • Wk 1Wvs VMI73-3

Old Dominion

  • Wk 1Wvs Norfolk State31-10

Matchups

Biggest mismatch: Old Dominion’s success rate against Virginia Tech, 83 points

Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.

  1. Old Dominion’s success rate against Virginia Tech’s defense

    83 pointsweakerstronger50th

    Old Dominion offense, 0th percentile · Virginia Tech defense, 83rd

  2. Old Dominion’s rushing EPA against Virginia Tech’s defense

    81 pointsweakerstronger50th

    Old Dominion offense, 1st percentile · Virginia Tech defense, 82nd

  3. Old Dominion’s explosive plays against Virginia Tech’s defense

    46 pointsweakerstronger50th

    Old Dominion offense, 53rd percentile · Virginia Tech defense, 7th

Season profile, all the rows

Season profile

Old DominionVirginia Tech
EPA/play, offense
Old Dominion · 0Virginia Tech · 76
EPA/play, defense
Old Dominion · 85Virginia Tech · 62
Success rate, offense
Old Dominion · 0Virginia Tech · 71
Success rate, defense
Old Dominion · 80Virginia Tech · 83
Explosive-play rate, offense
Old Dominion · 53Virginia Tech · 74
Explosive-play rate, defense
Old Dominion · 82Virginia Tech · 7
Rush EPA, offense
Old Dominion · 1Virginia Tech · 42
Rush EPA, defense
Old Dominion · 82Virginia Tech · 82
Pass EPA, offense
Old Dominion · 3Virginia Tech · 84
Pass EPA, defense
Old Dominion · 75Virginia Tech · 37

The series

Virginia Tech leads the series 4-3

7 meetings since 2017 · Old Dominion won the last meeting

Virginia Tech wonOld Dominion won2017: Virginia Tech by 382018: Old Dominion by 142019: Virginia Tech by 142022: Old Dominion by 32023: Virginia Tech by 192024: Virginia Tech by 202025: Old Dominion by 1920172025
  • 2025Old Dominion 45-26Virginia Tech lost 26-45 vs Old Dominion. Chance to win started at 71%, low under 1%, high 78%.
  • 2024Virginia Tech 37-17Virginia Tech won 37-17 at Old Dominion. Chance to win started at 88%, low 82%, high better than 99%.
  • 2023Virginia Tech 36-17Virginia Tech won 36-17 vs Old Dominion. Chance to win started at 86%, low 79%, high better than 99%.
  • 2022Old Dominion 20-17Virginia Tech lost 17-20 at Old Dominion. Chance to win started at 67%, low 13%, high 93%.
  • 2019Virginia Tech 31-17Virginia Tech won 31-17 vs Old Dominion. Chance to win started at 96%, low 94%, high better than 99%.

Each line is Virginia Tech’s chance to win through that meeting. Virginia Tech is 0-2 in the meetings since 2018 that were still close in the fourth quarter.

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

Virginia Tech fans are feeling it more than most fanbases this week (70th among FBS fanbases), in line with the numbers.

  • Model · 71%
  • Line · 92%
  • Virginia Tech fans · 70th
  • Old Dominion fans · 15th

Virginia Tech favored by 17.5 · Total 47.5

How games like this usually go

Virginia Tech by 17.5, and it went to form

50%90%Q1Q2Q3Q450%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 251 games since 2025 with a favorite of 14.5 to 21.5 points.

The market

The spread moved 3.5 points toward Virginia Tech.

opened −14now −17.5

The total fell 3.5 points.

opened 51now 47.5

Spread: −14 → −17.5 · Total: 51 → 47.5

The books’ cut: 4.2%, the margin built into the odds

Weather at kickoff

Warm and dry. Feels like 79° at kickoff.

Old Dominion at Virginia Tech · Saturday, Sept. 12, 2026 · Lane Stadium, Blacksburg

  • 79°feels like at kickoff
  • Dryno rain at kickoff
  • 91weather score, Comfortable
  • Middleof the day's 7 kickoff times

Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.

Kickoff times that Saturday

Games in this time zone used 7 kickoff times that day, local time (kickoffs within 30 minutes of each other count as one). This game, ringed, was in the middle of the day's seven kickoff times. At Lane Stadium that day, a 7:30 pm kickoff would have scored 99, against 91 at noon.

  • noon: 91, Comfortable (this game)
  • 1 pm: 88, Mixed
  • 2 pm: 86, Mixed
  • 3:30 pm: 84, Mixed
  • 6 pm: 95, Comfortable
  • 7 pm: 98, Comfortable
  • 7:30 pm: 99, Comfortable

Weather score at each kickoff time.

Tap a dot to read that kickoff time.

Home field

Virginia Tech is worth +2.5 points (±3.6) more at home than on the road since 2018 — bottom third of FBS, 22nd percentile.

50% at home, 38% on the road against FBS opponents (24-24 home, 17-28 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -0.3 at home vs. away over 100 games — inside the ±6.4 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.

The visitors travel about 228 miles to get here.

Last meeting in our History pages

Our History pages cover 2 of their meetings since 2018.

Where next