The rest of the season
Three real tests left: No. 25 Pittsburgh 16%, Virginia 21%, Stanford 53%
Win out 2% · expect 0.9 of 3 more wins
California's chance to win each game left, from our model: Virginia 21%, Stanford 53%, Pittsburgh 16%Bar height is our model’s chance in each game left. Dashed line: 50%.
StandingTied for 12th in the ACC · 2-4 in conference play · All standings
LeadersPassing Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele 1,751 · Rushing Adam Mohammed 363 · Receiving Chase Hendricks 565 All player stats
Updated Wed Nov 4 · through week 9
Follow California:athletics siteACCX
| Wk | Date | Our rank | Opp rank | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf | Top performers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 5 | #63 | #62 | +2.5✗ −18.5 | UCLA | L 24-45 141 | 0-1 | 0-0 | Pass Sagapolutele 271 · Rush Mohammed 120 · Rec Strong 94 |
| 2 | Sep 12 | #63 | #133 | +4✓ +7 | @Syracuse | W 21-18 146 | 1-1 | 1-0 | Pass Sagapolutele 182 · Rush Mohammed 74 · Rec Strong 64 |
| 3 | Sep 19 | #73 | #248 | −58.5✗ −16.5 | Wagner | W 49-7 130 Roaring | 2-1 | 1-0 | Pass Sagapolutele 413 · Rush Mohammed 91 · Rec Grayes 98 |
| 4 | Sep 25 | #72 | #23 | +2.5✗ −11.5 | Clemson | L 10-24 127 | 2-2 | 1-1 | Pass Sagapolutele 119 · Rush Mohammed 51 · Rec Strong 44 |
| 5 | Oct 3 | #74 | #97 | +1.5✗ −6.5 | @UNLV | L 31-39 144 | 2-3 | 1-1 | Pass Brousseau 200 · Rush Emory 48 · Rec Purcell 102 |
| 6 | Oct 10 | #91 | #46 | +11.5✓ +16.5 | Virginia Tech | W 25-20 132 | 3-3 | 2-1 | Pass Brousseau 321 · Rush Emory 46 · Rec Strong 97 |
| 7 | Oct 17 | #83 | #41 | +10✗ −24 | Wake Forest | L 7-41 130 | 3-4 | 2-2 | Pass Sagapolutele 110 · Rush Emory 56 · Rec Hendricks 54 |
| 8 | Oct 24 | #113 | #36 | +18.5✗ −20.5 | @SMU | L 20-59 134 | 3-5 | 2-3 | Pass Sagapolutele 265 · Rush Emory 27 · Rec Hendricks 83 |
| 9 | Oct 31 | #132 | #69 | +9.5✗ −11.5 | @NC State | L 10-31 137 | 3-6 | 2-4 | Pass Sagapolutele 196 · Rush League 29 · Rec Hendricks 67 |
| 10 | Bye week | ||||||||
| 11 | Nov 14 | #136 | #75 | @Virginia | time TBA · ACC Network21% to win | ||||
| 12 | Nov 21 | Stanford | time TBA53% to win | ||||||
| 13 | Nov 28 | Pittsburgh | time TBA16% to win | ||||||
Win chances are our model for California, through 9 games. This week's game comes from the playoff simulation, later games from the rating model. They are estimates and move every week.
The small line beside each score is the team's win chance through the game, drawn on one scale for every game. The small number is total plays.
Line is the closing point spread for California: a minus number means favored. A green check means the team covered it, by the number beside it. A red cross means it fell short by that much.
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Big plays (IsoPPP) | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31 | @NC State | L 10-31 | 269 | 1 | 31:29 | -0.165 | 32.0% | 1.11 | |
| Oct 24 | @SMU | L 20-59 | 305 | 0 | 31:22 | -0.003 | 34.3% | 1.24 | Blowout loss |
| Oct 17 | Wake Forest | L 7-41 | 266 | 0 | 32:08 | -0.200 | 33.3% | 0.91 | Defense's roughest night |
| Oct 10 | Virginia Tech | W 25-20 | 403 | 0 | 30:17 | +0.102 | 42.9% | 1.23 | One-score win |
| Oct 3 | @UNLV | L 31-39 | 464 | 1 | 31:17 | -0.054 | 32.5% | 1.68 | Most explosive |
| Sep 25 | Clemson | L 10-24 | 231 | 2 | 25:53 | -0.322 | 34.5% | 0.90 | Season-low EPA/play |
| Sep 19 | Wagner | W 49-7 | 626 | 2 | 31:52 | +0.460 | 57.7% | 1.17 | Season-high EPA/play |
| Sep 12 | @Syracuse | W 21-18 | 249 | 0 | 25:50 | -0.110 | 35.0% | 1.11 | One-score win |
| Sep 5 | UCLA | L 24-45 | 410 | 3 | 34:49 | +0.133 | 33.7% | 1.48 | |
| Season average (9 games) | 358 | 1.0 | -0.018 | 37.3% | 1.20 | ||||
California's wildest games since 2013: comebacks, long shots, line misses
Sportsbook odds · Oct 19. A number with a minus is the favorite: −130 means $130 wins $100. A plus is the underdog: +170 means $100 wins $170.
What fans said
Real posts about each game (they name the opponent, a player or a play), chosen by community score · usernames not shown
The games that decide the season
Recent form · last 10 games
3-7 over the last 10, and lost the last three.
It's see what we did wrong, try to improve those and make sure this doesn’t happen again
The open questioncan a new staff change the trajectory?
Lupoi inherits a 7-6 program with 22% production returning and a talent rank of #36 — the Bay Area’s football identity hangs in the balance as the ACC transition deepens.
Statusdeveloping
Written by our model from the storyline records. It can get facts wrong.
Range of outcomes · California · 2026
Regular-season wins: chance of each total, from the game chances above
3 wins 32%; 4 wins 49%; 5 wins 17%; 6 wins 2%Bars are the chance of each regular-season win total, from our model's chance in each game left, through 9 games. Paler bars are the outer 10% at each end. The closed row comes from the season-path projection, which also plays out conference title games and the CFP.
Tosh Lupoi took over as California's head coach, replacing Justin Wilcox. It is replaces 9-year head coach Justin Wilcox (48-55). The coverage has moved from the hire itself to what followed it. The coverage is divided, and believers and skeptics both cite evidence.
The off-field storyline drawing the most coverage right now. This section collects the drama around the program, kept apart from the analysis.
The 'this hire changes everything' takes: new-era believers making the case early.
This event was in 36 of 6724 board posts (1%) over the last 60 days, a modest share of the conversation. Fan text is shown verbatim and credited to the community it came from; posters stay anonymous.
Board posters are a vocal, self-selected slice of the fanbase.
The second-order trail: commits, decommits, portal and staff knock-on from the hire.
More in this tab
This week and this season
What it is like to watch them2026 · 3-6
Measured from 9 games · ranks are among ACC teams the same season
California is the best public university on earth fielding a football team that won the most chaotic play in the sport's history and has spent the 43 years since chasing a moment that big.
Fans here believe old Blues will tell you the rankings forget Cal exists between rivalry weeks — that a school this good at everything else gets written off in football by people who can't name a…
California · Game-day weather
Typical at California Memorial Stadium: kickoff time makes little difference, every kickoff time scores 97
Typical weather score at each kickoff time.
Tap a dot to read it.
At kickoff, 114 regular-season Saturdays at each kickoff time, 2018 to 2025. Typical means the average of those Saturdays. It is not a forecast.
Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.
California is the Pac-12-to-ACC transition program whose 'The Play' 1982 + Joe Roth tribute + Memorial Stadium fault-line setting define what Bay Area football looks like.
The program ledger
since 2025Roster and recruiting
Top 2 commits
Top community posts · last 12 months · r/cfb
Fans and ratings
Fan confidence a bit lower than recent years
22nd percentile among FBS programs
Fan mood index · most recent r/CFB data
More
Each link was checked against two outside sites.
Range of outcomes · California · 2026