California

3-6

Next game: at Virginia

Virginia’s best edge on California is running

Each unit against the one it meets, by national percentile this season. A filled dot is the attack and a ring is the defense it meets; the first name is the attack. Further right is better for both.

California offense against Virginia defense

weakelite
PassingCalifornia 22nd · Virginia 53rd
RunningCalifornia 6th · Virginia 37th
Staying on scheduleCalifornia 10th · Virginia 58th
Big playsCalifornia 32nd · Virginia 88th
Red zoneCalifornia 20th · Virginia 37th

Virginia offense against California defense

weakelite
PassingVirginia 50th · California 34th
RunningVirginia 36th · California 4th
Staying on scheduleVirginia 52nd · California 48th
Big playsVirginia 11th · California 10th
Red zoneVirginia 21st · California 29th

Percentiles are against all FBS teams this season.

Key stats

Key stats · 2026 · FBS rank

Each bar is the team’s national rank as a percentile. A longer bar is better, for defense too.

EPA / play128th of 138
-0.02
EPA allowed / play115th of 138
+0.18
Pass attempts1st of 138
386
Completions1st of 138
254
Penalties138th of 138
81
Penalty yards138th of 138
758
Points / game110th of 138
21.9
All 98 stats
Offense / Defense
Total yards
Team
3223358.1/gm5.09/playTied 55th of 138Tied 39th of 69Tied 12th of 1712th of 13
Opp
3537393.0/gm6.02/play130th of 13866th of 6916th of 172nd of 13
Rush yards
Team
74582.8/gm1.18/play136th of 13869th of 6917th of 1712th of 13
Opp
1659184.3/gm2.82/play128th of 13867th of 6915th of 175th of 13
Rush carries
Team
24727.4/gm126th of 13864th of 6915th of 1712th of 13
Opp
33437.1/gm126th of 13868th of 6916th of 172nd of 13
Rush TDs
Team
80.9/gmTied 120th of 138Tied 65th of 69Tied 16th of 1712th of 13
Opp
222.4/gmTied 133rd of 13868th of 6916th of 179th of 13
Net pass yards
Team
2478275.3/gm3.91/play13th of 1389th of 694th of 1711th of 13
Opp
1878208.7/gm3.19/play94th of 13846th of 6910th of 172nd of 13
Pass attempts
Team
38642.9/gm1st of 1381st of 691st of 1710th of 13
Opp
25428.2/gmTied 84th of 138Tied 38th of 6910th of 172nd of 13
Completions
Team
25428.2/gm1st of 1381st of 691st of 179th of 13
Opp
14816.4/gmTied 67th of 138Tied 31st of 69Tied 7th of 172nd of 13
Pass TDs
Team
141.6/gmTied 47th of 138Tied 34th of 69Tied 10th of 1712th of 13
Opp
151.7/gmTied 105th of 138Tied 57th of 69Tied 14th of 174th of 13
Passer rating
Team
128.1128.1100th of 13860th of 6915th of 177th of 13
Opp
135.1135.180th of 13741st of 699th of 176th of 13
Interceptions thrown
Team
60.7/gmTied 64th of 138Tied 34th of 69Tied 11th of 172nd of 13
Opp
70.8/gmTied 35th of 138Tied 21st of 69Tied 5th of 1712th of 13
Sacks (def)
Team
151.7/gmTied 84th of 138Tied 48th of 69Tied 13th of 1710th of 11
Opp
171.9/gmTied 82nd of 138Tied 41st of 69Tied 9th of 173rd of 11
Tackles for loss
Team
364.0/gmTied 108th of 138Tied 57th of 6914th of 1710th of 11
Opp
606.7/gmTied 131st of 13866th of 6916th of 174th of 11
First downs
Team
17519.4/gmTied 47th of 138Tied 29th of 69Tied 8th of 1712th of 13
Opp
19721.9/gm136th of 13868th of 6916th of 172nd of 13
3rd-down conv
Team
495.4/gmTied 32nd of 138Tied 19th of 69Tied 4th of 1712th of 13
Opp
515.7/gmTied 125th of 138Tied 65th of 6915th of 172nd of 13
3rd-down att
Team
13815.3/gm2nd of 1381st of 691st of 1712th of 13
Opp
12313.7/gmTied 121st of 138Tied 61st of 69Tied 15th of 172nd of 13
4th-down conv
Team
70.8/gmTied 78th of 138Tied 38th of 69Tied 12th of 1711th of 13
Opp
111.2/gmTied 108th of 138Tied 57th of 69Tied 12th of 176th of 13
4th-down att
Team
242.7/gmTied 7th of 138Tied 5th of 694th of 178th of 13
Opp
111.2/gmTied 21st of 138Tied 10th of 69Tied 2nd of 172nd of 13
Time of possession
Team
274:5730:33/gm12th of 1384th of 693rd of 1712th of 13
Opp
265:0329:27/gm123rd of 13867th of 6916th of 172nd of 13

FBS rankings · 2026 season · all stats vs 136 FBS programs

Player stats · 2026 season
Quarterbacks
Player#GCmp/AttPctYdsY/ATDINTRateZPRQBRAdj ANY/ASack%
Game Manager · +0.00 EPA/play38178 / 26467.41751
#47 FBS
6.611
#57 FBS
6132.34750.35.84.7
Pocket Passer · +0.10 EPA/play11575 / 12062.57015.830119.83938.86.02.4
Running backs
Player#GCarYdsAvgTDLongStuff%10+%
Workhorse · +0.14 EPA/play245823634.432818.511.1
Satellite Back · -0.10 EPA/play209772383.142026.95.1
Receivers
Player#GRecYdsAvgTDLong
Slot Technician · +0.24 EPA/play7961565
#51 FBS
9.34
#70 FBS
42
Possession Receiver · +0.23 EPA/play983547813.7149
Complete TE · +0.47 EPA/play2271924112.7191
Complete TE · +0.19 EPA/play8582222610.3238
Possession Receiver · +0.49 EPA/play651213811.5180
+0.29 EPA/play104811113.9121
+0.33 EPA/play46111089.8126
Possession Receiver · -0.37 EPA/play81517824.8020
+1.02 EPA/play15256012021

Biggest plays from California’s games

Official highlights with our numbers: the plays that moved the chance to win most in California’s games this season, whoever made them.

  1. Q4, 0:18 · California down 1, takes the leadAshten Emory runs 2 yards for a touchdownVirginia Tech at California, week 6Q4, 0:18 · California 25, Virginia Tech 200:18Go-ahead touchdown for California with 0:18 left0:18Go-ahead touchdown for California with 0:18 leftGo-ahead touchdown for California with 0:18 leftAshten Emory 2 yd Run (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)Watch from this playESPN College Football
  2. Q4, 1:15 · Virginia Tech down 5, takes the leadEthan Grunkemeyer runs 1 yard for a touchdownVirginia Tech at California, week 6Q4, 1:15 · Virginia Tech 20, California 191:15Go-ahead touchdown for Virginia Tech with 1:15 left1:15Go-ahead touchdown for Virginia Tech with 1:15 leftGo-ahead touchdown for Virginia Tech with 1:15 leftEthan Grunkemeyer 1 yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)Watch from this playESPN College Football
  3. Q4, 4:51 · California down 4, takes the leadCalifornia scores a touchdownCalifornia at Syracuse, week 2Q4, 4:51 · California 21, Syracuse 184:51Go-ahead pick-six for California with 4:51 left4:51Go-ahead pick-six for California with 4:51 leftGo-ahead pick-six for California with 4:51 leftKingston Lopa 0 yd Interception Return (Towns McGough Kick)Watch from this playESPN College Football
  4. Q4, 8:46 · UCLA breaks the tieWayne Knight runs 31 yards for a touchdownUCLA at California, week 1Q4, 8:46 · UCLA 31, California 24▲32%UCLA’s chance to win, 49% to 81%▲32%UCLA’s chance to win, 49% to 81%W.Knight rush middle for 31 yards gain to the CAL00 touchdown, 1ST DOWN, kick goodWatch from this playESPN College Football
  5. Q1, 5:15 · California tiedCalifornia scores a touchdownClemson at California, week 4Q1, 5:15 · California 7, Clemson 035Fumble return touchdown35Fumble return touchdownFumble return touchdownT. Reynolds sacked by A. Manutai for -4 yds, K. Mothudi fumbled, returned for a TD (C. Meyer kick)Watch from this playESPN College Football
  6. Q4, 9:31 · UNLV down 1, takes the leadJackson Arnold finds Keyan Burnett for a 10-yard touchdownCalifornia at UNLV, week 5Q4, 9:31 · UNLV 32, California 25Go-ahead touchdown for UNLV in the fourth quarterGo-ahead touchdown for UNLV in the fourth quarterKeyan Burnett 10 yd pass from Jackson Arnold (Jackson Arnold Run for Two-Point Conversion)Watch from this play CBS Sports College Football

All 50 plays from California’s games

How scary each game got

California lost to UCLA after being 82% to win; the closest win was against Virginia Tech, down to 9%

50%L1W2W3L4L5W6L7L8L9

Tap a game for its score and win chances.

Each bar runs from the lowest to the highest chance our model gave California during that game; the thick mark is where it started. Numbers are the game week.

Stat leaders

2026 stat leaders · California

through 9 games

Isaiah Crosby leads California with 50 tackles through 9 games.

1. Isaiah Crosby DB 50 tackles
2. AJ Tuitele LB 49 tackles
3. Chase Hendricks WR 565 receiving yards
4. Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele QB 1,751 passing yards
5. Ian Strong WR 478 receiving yards

Roster

Roster

2026
24 players carry a qualified CFB Zeitgeist Score this season so far.
Kingston Lopa S #6 of 537
Chase Hendricks WR #46 of 465
AJ Tuitele LB #90 of 567
Isaiah Crosby S #124 of 537
Ian Strong WR #110 of 465
Daniel Harris S #130 of 537

+18 more

Recruiting and the portal: top commits · who's gone and who's back

How they play

How they play · 2026

California fields a struggling pass-first offense behind a porous defense, though it gives up the big play.

Offense
8th pct EPA/play
Run/Pass
60% pass plays
Defense
17th pct EPA allowed
Defensive shape
10th pct at limiting explosive plays

Percentile vs all FBS, based on this season's per-game production. Bar = where this team ranks — right is better.

Player percentiles

Player percentiles · California · 2026

California reads strongest in success rate allowed (top 52%) and passing EPA allowed (top 66%); the crux lives in rushing EPA allowed, where California sits at the 3rd percentile.

Offense · strengths lead

EPA / play -0.02
8th
Success rate +0.37
10th
Explosive plays +1.20
32nd
Rushing EPA -0.08
6th
Red-zone finish +3.15
20th

Defense · higher bar = harder to play against

EPA allowed +0.18
17th
Success rate allowed +0.41
48th
Explosive plays allowed +1.39
10th
Passing EPA allowed +0.22
34th
Red-zone defense +3.80
29th

Hidden math · special situations

Field position (O) +27.43
16th
Passing EPA +0.09
22nd
Rushing EPA allowed +0.21
4th
Elite · 90+Strong · 70+Average · 40-70Concern · 10-40Bottom · <10
Sources · CFBD tier-2 advanced stats · per-game production · 9 games this season · percentiles vs. up to 138 FBS peers

Home-field advantage · 2018–present · FBS opponents

California is worth +2.1 points more at home than on the road.

Bottom third of FBS, 17th percentile of 133 programs

49% at home, 37% away against FBS opponents since 2018 (22-23 home, 17-29 away). Interval ±3.4.

95% intervalmodel 2.3 · books ~3Weakest home edge in FBSStrongest
95% intervalmodel 2.3 · books ~3Weakest home edge in FBSStrongest
The stadium and how the home edge is measured

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge. The books use about 3. Per-team versions were tested and did not hold up (why). Against the closing line, California has beaten the number by −2.6 more at home than away over 98 games. That is inside the ±6.1 that many games can resolve, so the results cannot tell this stadium from the flat number. That is the honest reading of nearly every FBS stadium.

California Memorial Stadium seats 62,467 and has averaged 62% full (38,487, 31 games reported). Visitors face the 18th-longest trip of 135 FBS venues: a median 655 miles since 2018. The map isn't translating, though — the split above still reads bottom third of fbs. 21% of the 2026 roster (23 of 111 located players) grew up inside 100 miles of the stadium.

Edge = half the gap between average home margin and average road margin, FBS opponents only, non-neutral games since 2018; the interval is 95%. Market line: closing spread, seasons with lines on file. Trip length is straight-line miles from the visiting team's campus to the venue, measured across all 52 home games since 2018.

Home22-23Away17-29Edge+2.1 ±3.4Visitor trip655 mi

More in this tab

How they play

Position battlesReps are split — here's who's actually winning them.

RB room

The carries are split. The job isn’t.

Adam Mohammed and Ashten Emory split the carries (81/159 vs 78/159) -- but the job isn't split the same way.

Adam MohammedAshten Emory
Carries
8178
the baseline -- every row below is tested against this split, not a flat 50/50
Targets
20/4424/44
shared -- dots touch, this room really is a committee here
Top-5-carry share
25.0%30.4%
concentration alone -- EPA/carry doesn't corroborate, read with caution
Screened 2 claims, 0 survived, 2 falsified

WR/TE room

The targets are split. The job isn’t.

Chase Hendricks (WR) and Mason Mini (TE) split the targets (78/116 vs 38/116) -- but the job isn't split the same way. Mason Mini produces in bigger chunks.

Chase HendricksMason Mini
Targets
7838
the baseline -- every row below is tested against this split, not a flat 50/50
3rd-down targets
26/3711/37
shared -- dots touch, this room really is a committee here
Garbage-time share
11/198/19
shared -- dots touch, this room really is a committee here
Top-5-catch share
29.8%64.7%
concentration and EPA/target agree -- a real boom/bust split
Screened 3 claims, 1 survived, 2 falsified
Scheme claimsFive specific, testable claims about how this team plays.

California’s 4th-quarter offense, before and after garbage time

Raw Q4 EPA/play ranks 5th percentile in FBS. Strip out snaps taken with a blowout margin and it climbs to the 15th — the correction is the finding, not a footnote.

league medianRaw 4th quarter · 5th pctileCompetitive snap…Worst in FBSBest in FBS
Source CFB Zeitgeist · CFBD play-by-play, garbage-time adjusted by pre-play margin

Standard downs vs. passing downs

Does California hold up once the down-and-distance turns against them?

11th percentile success on standard downs, 20th on passing downs — little dropoff between the two — a schedule-independent identity.

Fragile off scheduleBalanced, both workStruggles even on scheduleStandard-downs reliantCaliforniaWeak on standard downsElite on standard downsFalls apart off scheduleHolds up off scheduleHawai'i48th standard · 29th passingUNLV41st standard · 19th passingStanford40th standard · 9th passingEastern Michigan16th standard · 30th passingSan José State17th standard · 2nd passingNew Mexico State14th standard · 36th passingSacramento State13th standard · 6th passingOklahoma State96th standard · 86th passingDuke21st standard · 67th passingFlorida State30th standard · 90th passingRutgers42nd standard · 81st passingKansas52nd standard · 18th passingBoston College63rd standard · 28th passingNorfolk State7th standard · 0th passingLouisville95th standard · 72nd passingMissouri34th standard · 41st passingMemphis92nd standard · 93rd passingGeorgia Southern60th standard · 71st passingOle Miss81st standard · 94th passingJacksonville State82nd standard · 80th passingNorth Dakota State30th standard · 45th passingArizona76th standard · 94th passingUSC79th standard · 97th passingWake Forest75th standard · 96th passingTCU70th standard · 10th passingDelaware59th standard · 64th passingUAB24th standard · 62nd passingMichigan State23rd standard · 55th passingSouth Florida84th standard · 57th passingFlorida International20th standard · 53rd passingNavy89th standard · 17th passingWisconsin25th standard · 22nd passingOregon State97th standard · 70th passingSyracuse57th standard · 39th passingOhio State84th standard · 80th passingBall State31st standard · 52nd passingPittsburgh65th standard · 50th passingColorado16th standard · 65th passingGeorgia Tech53rd standard · 40th passingAuburn14th standard · 69th passingBaylor15th standard · 46th passingNorth Texas95th standard · 84th passingApp State33rd standard · 49th passingIowa State18th standard · 31st passingUTSA91st standard · 33rd passingArkansas71st standard · 24th passingBoise State77th standard · 92nd passingOregon39th standard · 26th passingTulsa49th standard · 7th passingTulane12th standard · 8th passingPurdue57th standard · 82nd passingMiddle Tennessee27th standard · 64th passingVanderbilt41st standard · 32nd passingSan Diego State8th standard · 54th passingLSU86th standard · 98th passingClemson7th standard · 39th passingCentral Michigan36th standard · 9th passingTexas Tech64th standard · 76th passingMichigan10th standard · 89th passingWestern Michigan32nd standard · 27th passingOhio82nd standard · 42nd passingBuffalo9th standard · 11th passingTexas27th standard · 61st passingCoastal Carolina23rd standard · 64th passingColorado State66th standard · 95th passingWyoming78th standard · 48th passingTexas A&M46th standard · 55th passingLiberty93rd standard · 78th passingFlorida Atlantic67th standard · 87th passingLouisiana36th standard · 66th passingSouth Alabama44th standard · 74th passingTroy39th standard · 15th passingSam Houston11th standard · 37th passingNevada28th standard · 27th passingWestern Kentucky22nd standard · 25th passingWashington State19th standard · 5th passingWashington56th standard · 16th passingCalifornia11th standard · 20th passingCharlotte18th standard · 41st passingTennessee75th standard · 12th passingUtah State3rd standard · 76th passingMiami99th standard · 95th passingHouston87th standard · 99th passingUCF29th standard · 45th passingUtah94th standard · 98th passingFresno State25th standard · 84th passingAkron58th standard · 34th passingNorth Carolina89th standard · 73rd passingIllinois73rd standard · 91st passingToledo73rd standard · 52nd passingMinnesota32nd standard · 4th passingRice59th standard · 14th passingTemple50th standard · 68th passingNC State62nd standard · 77th passingVirginia83rd standard · 2nd passingNotre Dame100th standard · 43rd passingMassachusetts35th standard · 38th passingKent State5th standard · 21st passingSouth Carolina70th standard · 56th passingMiami (OH)50th standard · 43rd passingKennesaw State61st standard · 16th passingCincinnati68th standard · 83rd passingIndiana55th standard · 44th passingMaine0th standard · 86th passingNorthern Illinois51st standard · 14th passingBowling Green43rd standard · 21st passingGeorgia State68th standard · 66th passingSouthern Miss48th standard · 7th passingKansas State64th standard · 68th passingUConn72nd standard · 73rd passingAlabama77th standard · 57th passingEast Carolina37th standard · 19th passingOld Dominion1st standard · 36th passingOklahoma4th standard · 50th passingUTEP9th standard · 1st passingNorthwestern88th standard · 88th passingVirginia Tech43rd standard · 91st passingMaryland34th standard · 26th passingArizona State38th standard · 61st passingNew Mexico55th standard · 48th passingNebraska46th standard · 85th passingMarshall69th standard · 32nd passingArkansas State85th standard · 59th passingSMU91st standard · 82nd passingJames Madison45th standard · 77th passingTexas State74th standard · 100th passingMississippi State66th standard · 59th passingUL Monroe47th standard · 11th passingMissouri State52nd standard · 30th passingWest Virginia54th standard · 75th passingLouisiana Tech26th standard · 79th passingUCLA80th standard · 60th passingKentucky90th standard · 51st passingFlorida61st standard · 70th passingUT Martin6th standard · 3rd passingArmy93rd standard · 58th passingMercyhurst2nd standard · 34th passingIowa79th standard · 13th passingPenn State20th standard · 47th passingAir Force98th standard · 23rd passingRobert Morris2nd standard · 5th passingGardner-Webb5th standard · 23rd passingGeorgia98th standard · 89th passingBYU86th standard · 35th passing
Fragile off scheduleBalancedWeak both waysStandard downs onlyCaliforniaWeak on standard downsElite on standard downsFalls apart off scheduleHolds up off scheduleHawai'i48th standard · 29th passingUNLV41st standard · 19th passingStanford40th standard · 9th passingEastern Michigan16th standard · 30th passingSan José State17th standard · 2nd passingNew Mexico State14th standard · 36th passingSacramento State13th standard · 6th passingOklahoma State96th standard · 86th passingDuke21st standard · 67th passingFlorida State30th standard · 90th passingRutgers42nd standard · 81st passingKansas52nd standard · 18th passingBoston College63rd standard · 28th passingNorfolk State7th standard · 0th passingLouisville95th standard · 72nd passingMissouri34th standard · 41st passingMemphis92nd standard · 93rd passingGeorgia Southern60th standard · 71st passingOle Miss81st standard · 94th passingJacksonville State82nd standard · 80th passingNorth Dakota State30th standard · 45th passingArizona76th standard · 94th passingUSC79th standard · 97th passingWake Forest75th standard · 96th passingTCU70th standard · 10th passingDelaware59th standard · 64th passingUAB24th standard · 62nd passingMichigan State23rd standard · 55th passingSouth Florida84th standard · 57th passingFlorida International20th standard · 53rd passingNavy89th standard · 17th passingWisconsin25th standard · 22nd passingOregon State97th standard · 70th passingSyracuse57th standard · 39th passingOhio State84th standard · 80th passingBall State31st standard · 52nd passingPittsburgh65th standard · 50th passingColorado16th standard · 65th passingGeorgia Tech53rd standard · 40th passingAuburn14th standard · 69th passingBaylor15th standard · 46th passingNorth Texas95th standard · 84th passingApp State33rd standard · 49th passingIowa State18th standard · 31st passingUTSA91st standard · 33rd passingArkansas71st standard · 24th passingBoise State77th standard · 92nd passingOregon39th standard · 26th passingTulsa49th standard · 7th passingTulane12th standard · 8th passingPurdue57th standard · 82nd passingMiddle Tennessee27th standard · 64th passingVanderbilt41st standard · 32nd passingSan Diego State8th standard · 54th passingLSU86th standard · 98th passingClemson7th standard · 39th passingCentral Michigan36th standard · 9th passingTexas Tech64th standard · 76th passingMichigan10th standard · 89th passingWestern Michigan32nd standard · 27th passingOhio82nd standard · 42nd passingBuffalo9th standard · 11th passingTexas27th standard · 61st passingCoastal Carolina23rd standard · 64th passingColorado State66th standard · 95th passingWyoming78th standard · 48th passingTexas A&M46th standard · 55th passingLiberty93rd standard · 78th passingFlorida Atlantic67th standard · 87th passingLouisiana36th standard · 66th passingSouth Alabama44th standard · 74th passingTroy39th standard · 15th passingSam Houston11th standard · 37th passingNevada28th standard · 27th passingWestern Kentucky22nd standard · 25th passingWashington State19th standard · 5th passingWashington56th standard · 16th passingCalifornia11th standard · 20th passingCharlotte18th standard · 41st passingTennessee75th standard · 12th passingUtah State3rd standard · 76th passingMiami99th standard · 95th passingHouston87th standard · 99th passingUCF29th standard · 45th passingUtah94th standard · 98th passingFresno State25th standard · 84th passingAkron58th standard · 34th passingNorth Carolina89th standard · 73rd passingIllinois73rd standard · 91st passingToledo73rd standard · 52nd passingMinnesota32nd standard · 4th passingRice59th standard · 14th passingTemple50th standard · 68th passingNC State62nd standard · 77th passingVirginia83rd standard · 2nd passingNotre Dame100th standard · 43rd passingMassachusetts35th standard · 38th passingKent State5th standard · 21st passingSouth Carolina70th standard · 56th passingMiami (OH)50th standard · 43rd passingKennesaw State61st standard · 16th passingCincinnati68th standard · 83rd passingIndiana55th standard · 44th passingMaine0th standard · 86th passingNorthern Illinois51st standard · 14th passingBowling Green43rd standard · 21st passingGeorgia State68th standard · 66th passingSouthern Miss48th standard · 7th passingKansas State64th standard · 68th passingUConn72nd standard · 73rd passingAlabama77th standard · 57th passingEast Carolina37th standard · 19th passingOld Dominion1st standard · 36th passingOklahoma4th standard · 50th passingUTEP9th standard · 1st passingNorthwestern88th standard · 88th passingVirginia Tech43rd standard · 91st passingMaryland34th standard · 26th passingArizona State38th standard · 61st passingNew Mexico55th standard · 48th passingNebraska46th standard · 85th passingMarshall69th standard · 32nd passingArkansas State85th standard · 59th passingSMU91st standard · 82nd passingJames Madison45th standard · 77th passingTexas State74th standard · 100th passingMississippi State66th standard · 59th passingUL Monroe47th standard · 11th passingMissouri State52nd standard · 30th passingWest Virginia54th standard · 75th passingLouisiana Tech26th standard · 79th passingUCLA80th standard · 60th passingKentucky90th standard · 51st passingFlorida61st standard · 70th passingUT Martin6th standard · 3rd passingArmy93rd standard · 58th passingMercyhurst2nd standard · 34th passingIowa79th standard · 13th passingPenn State20th standard · 47th passingAir Force98th standard · 23rd passingRobert Morris2nd standard · 5th passingGardner-Webb5th standard · 23rd passingGeorgia98th standard · 89th passingBYU86th standard · 35th passing
Source CFB Zeitgeist · advanced team stats, Connelly success-rate definition
View all FBS teams as a table
TeamStandard-downs percentilePassing-downs percentile
Air Force98th23rd
Akron58th34th
Alabama77th57th
App State33rd49th
Arizona76th94th
Arizona State38th61st
Arkansas71st24th
Arkansas State85th59th
Army93rd58th
Auburn14th69th
BYU86th35th
Ball State31st52nd
Baylor15th46th
Boise State77th92nd
Boston College63rd28th
Bowling Green43rd21st
Buffalo9th11th
California11th20th
Central Michigan36th9th
Charlotte18th41st
Cincinnati68th83rd
Clemson7th39th
Coastal Carolina23rd64th
Colorado16th65th
Colorado State66th95th
Delaware59th64th
Duke21st67th
East Carolina37th19th
Eastern Michigan16th30th
Florida61st70th
Florida Atlantic67th87th
Florida International20th53rd
Florida State30th90th
Fresno State25th84th
Gardner-Webb5th23rd
Georgia98th89th
Georgia Southern60th71st
Georgia State68th66th
Georgia Tech53rd40th
Hawai'i48th29th
Houston87th99th
Illinois73rd91st
Indiana55th44th
Iowa79th13th
Iowa State18th31st
Jacksonville State82nd80th
James Madison45th77th
Kansas52nd18th
Kansas State64th68th
Kennesaw State61st16th
Kent State5th21st
Kentucky90th51st
LSU86th98th
Liberty93rd78th
Louisiana36th66th
Louisiana Tech26th79th
Louisville95th72nd
Maine0th86th
Marshall69th32nd
Maryland34th26th
Massachusetts35th38th
Memphis92nd93rd
Mercyhurst2nd34th
Miami99th95th
Miami (OH)50th43rd
Michigan10th89th
Michigan State23rd55th
Middle Tennessee27th64th
Minnesota32nd4th
Mississippi State66th59th
Missouri34th41st
Missouri State52nd30th
NC State62nd77th
Navy89th17th
Nebraska46th85th
Nevada28th27th
New Mexico55th48th
New Mexico State14th36th
Norfolk State7th0th
North Carolina89th73rd
North Dakota State30th45th
North Texas95th84th
Northern Illinois51st14th
Northwestern88th88th
Notre Dame100th43rd
Ohio82nd42nd
Ohio State84th80th
Oklahoma4th50th
Oklahoma State96th86th
Old Dominion1st36th
Ole Miss81st94th
Oregon39th26th
Oregon State97th70th
Penn State20th47th
Pittsburgh65th50th
Purdue57th82nd
Rice59th14th
Robert Morris2nd5th
Rutgers42nd81st
SMU91st82nd
Sacramento State13th6th
Sam Houston11th37th
San Diego State8th54th
San José State17th2nd
South Alabama44th74th
South Carolina70th56th
South Florida84th57th
Southern Miss48th7th
Stanford40th9th
Syracuse57th39th
TCU70th10th
Temple50th68th
Tennessee75th12th
Texas27th61st
Texas A&M46th55th
Texas State74th100th
Texas Tech64th76th
Toledo73rd52nd
Troy39th15th
Tulane12th8th
Tulsa49th7th
UAB24th62nd
UCF29th45th
UCLA80th60th
UConn72nd73rd
UL Monroe47th11th
UNLV41st19th
USC79th97th
UT Martin6th3rd
UTEP9th1st
UTSA91st33rd
Utah94th98th
Utah State3rd76th
Vanderbilt41st32nd
Virginia83rd2nd
Virginia Tech43rd91st
Wake Forest75th96th
Washington56th16th
Washington State19th5th
West Virginia54th75th
Western Kentucky22nd25th
Western Michigan32nd27th
Wisconsin25th22nd
Wyoming78th48th

California by half

1st-half offense ranks 20th percentile in FBS; 2nd-half, 3rd — competitive snaps only, garbage time excluded from both halves.

league median1st half · 20th pctile2nd half · 3rd pctileWorst in FBSBest in FBS
Source CFB Zeitgeist · advanced team stats, garbage-time adjusted by pre-play margin

How much of California’s number is the schedule?

Raw EPA/play through week 10 is -0.02; 6th percentile once opponent strength is stripped out, it's -0.02. The widest gap came in week 4: 0.16 raw vs. 0.03 adjusted.

0.190.07-0.05Wk 2Wk 6Wk 10Raw EPA/playOpponent-adjusted
0.190.07-0.05Wk 2Wk 6Wk 10RawAdjusted
Source CFB Zeitgeist · season-to-date, opponent-adjusted model
Pass defense by zoneThe part of the field opponents keep attacking.

What this team throws, and gives up, by depth.

On short throws (≤19 air yards), California’s passing game completes a completion rate above the FBS mean (68.1% vs 67.0% league-wide, shrunk toward the mean for its 350-play sample) — mid-pack, 87 of 136 qualifying offenses.

On short throws (≤19 air yards), California’s defense allows a completion rate below the FBS mean (64.6% vs 66.3% league-wide, shrunk toward the mean for its 181-play sample) — mid-pack, 31 of 137 qualifying defenses.

We won’t show a deep-ball (20+ air yards) leaderboard here, on either side of the ball: even a full season of charted plays gives most teams well under 30 deep attempts — too thin to tell a real tendency from noise, so we won’t guess. Same refusal for yards-after-catch allowed and where a team’s attempts land by zone: both measured and both came back statistically indistinguishable from season-to-season noise.

Screened 273 claims, 273 survived · 2025+ only, charted plays (parse_status='complete'); n=350 short-zone plays, raw rate 68.6%; 2025+ only, charted plays (parse_status='complete'); n=181 short-zone plays, raw rate 62.4%
Havoc & trenchesDefense havoc rate 0.117, 6th percentile

Disruption, run-blocking, and down-and-distance efficiency.

Havoc rate (D) 0.117
6th
Havoc allowed (O) 0.172
23rd
Front-seven havoc (D) 0.069
5th
Secondary havoc (D) 0.048
18th
Stuff rate (D) 0.150
8th
Stuff rate allowed (O) 0.234
6th
Line yards (O) 2.412
3rd
Line yards allowed (D) 3.222
9th
Standard-downs success (O) 0.428
15th
Standard-downs success allowed (D) 0.454
50th
Passing-downs success (O) 0.266
19th
Passing-downs success allowed (D) 0.276
67th
Screened 12 claims, 12 survived · 2026 season, FBS only, min. 3 games with data this season
Turnover luckHow much of the margin was skill vs. the bounce.
Fumble luck

Recovering 40% of their own fumbles — running cold vs. the ~52% league rate.

2 of 5 own fumbles recovered themselves, 2026 only.

TakeawaysWhat this defense does once it gets the ball.
Takeaway conversion

Converting 25% of pass disruptions into takeaways — well above the ~18% league rate.

7 interceptions of 28 disrupted passes (21 deflected, 7 intercepted), 2026 only.

PenaltiesWhether flags are costing this team games.
Penalty battle

Losing the penalty battle: 81 penalties committed vs. 72 drawn on opponents, a 50-yard deficit.

758 penalty yards committed vs. 708 drawn on opponents, 2026 season total.

Ratings and comparisons

RatingsWhere the public rating systems put this team.

Where the models rank California

CFB Zeitgeist Score

#117

-4.4

SP+

#101

-8.2

FPI

#94

-6.9

Elo

#122

1209

SRS

#108

-9.7

The national models put California between 94th and 122nd nationally — CFB Zeitgeist agrees, slotting them 117th.

National rank of 138 FBS teams · 2026 season. SP+/FPI/SRS published; Elo & CFB Zeitgeist Score ranked by rating.

Comparable teamsPrograms built like this one — tier, prestige band, kind of fanbase, roster size. Not a stat match.

Most similar programs · California

Reads like

Matched on how the programs are built — tier, prestige band, kind of fanbase, conference, voice and roster size — not on this season's stats. A calibration, not a prediction.

WeatherHow warm or cold its home and road games usually are.

California Memorial Stadium, Berkeley, CA

Usual during the game around Nov 20: 57°, between 52° and 61° in about 7 in 10 games (24 games since 2016).

Road games since 2016: the middle game was 63°, and 8 in 10 ran between 48° and 81° (51 of 53 road games, at stadiums we cover).

HomeRoad

What a usual Saturday feels like here, by kickoff time

Airport readings near each stadium during the game, not on the field. How we measure

Weather observations: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet at Iowa State University. Rain: NOAA MRMS radar and CoCoRaHS volunteer gauges (CC BY 4.0). Game data: CollegeFootballData.com.

This page may include content derived from public news sources, social media, and fan communities. We relay these sources as-is — we are not reporting them. Sources may be summarized or quoted imperfectly; for anything that matters, go look at the original source directly. The original source may also be wrong. Text written by our model says so in a line beneath it, and it can get facts wrong. All analysis is editorial opinion, not professional reporting. Data sources · About this site